Nitish Kumar, Narendra Modi, And FDI

The Bihar riddle: Modi govt clears loco projects but CM Nitish has no time for GE, Alstom chiefs via @firstpost https://t.co/BkgAOgfdrc

— Paramendra Bhagat (@paramendra) January 11, 2016

Narendra Modi
FDI Aur Opposition
Modi: NRI Prime Minister नहीं, FDI Prime Minister
मोदी का विदेश भ्रमण और FDI

Uttar Pradesh 2017: Mayawati Deserves A Victory

Uttar Pradesh 2017: Mayawati Deserves A Victory

She seeks no alliance because deep inside she knows she can win this one. By vote share she does lead the third largest party in the country. And, foremost of all, there is an acute need for Dalit liberation in the country. Just like India had to say we are our own country, Harijans will have to say we are our own religion. We do lay claim to the Ved-Puran-Upanishad just like the Christians lay claim to the Old Testament, but we are our own religion, we are not Sanatani, and we are not Hindu, we are Harijan. We worship Ram. Our book is the Tulsidas Ramayana. Ramcharitmanas. We disown the Valmiki Ramayan as a work of slander by a Sanatani Shaitan on par with Ravana. We will build a Ram Temple, but there will be a mosque side by side. We want to co-exist with the Hindus and the Muslims, but we are nobody’s untouchables. We inhabit nobody’s caste system. We will not accept anything less than religious equality. We will outlaw all discriminatory behavior that targets Harijans. We will have the police fight and eliminate caste violence, which will be renamed religious violence. We will empower our community through education, health and entrepreneurship.

The Yadavs are the Krishna people. We Harijans are Ram people. Hare Rama, Hare Krishna. We want to spread the good word globally. And so, we are one with the Hare Rama Hare Krishna mission. We harbor no animosity towards the Yadav community, but democracy thrives on political competition. That is the best way to serve the good people of Uttar Pradesh.

Mayawati is both Harijan and a woman. She has been both in power and opposition. She has also served in Delhi as a MP. And she is in a position to fight caste violence, gender violence, and religious violence at the same time. Just like Nitish ran on a one point law and order plank in 2005, Mayawati’s one point mantra now seems to be Aman Chain, as in, law and order. If she were to elaborate on that and make it specific, she gets the Dalits, the women, and the Muslims. That would be enough to secure her a victory. Law and order really is the agenda item number one. That is the top responsibility of any state anywhere. You deliver on that one, and then you can build development and progress on top of it.

Maybe finally Uttar Pradesh’s time for double digit growth rates has come. She might even hold conversations with Nitish on that one post victory. Law and order kah ke to jit gaye, ab age ka rasta kya hai, jara bolo. Roads and bridges, schools and hospitals, ease of doing business. Waise bhi koi mysterious baat hai nahin. Abhi tak to baat obvious ho gayi hai. Jagah jagah log kar rahe hain. Bihar and Uttar Pradesh are India’s heartland, the core of the Hindi belt.

She could rule Uttar Pradesh and act equi-distant to both the National Democratic Alliance and the Grand Alliance at the national level. That is also a valid option. As in, it is very possible for Mayawati to win Uttar Pradesh in 2017, and for Modi to again sweep the state in 2019. As long as the country’s growth rate is north of 10%, I don’t see how he can have a problem.

Her national agenda is not Modi or Nitish. Her national agenda is to organize the Dalits nationally. Uttar Pradesh is only a start.

Lekin pramukh mudda hai ki Harijan ko alag dharm ke rup mein samvidhan mein darj karvao. Just like Yadavs have no caste, Harijans also have no caste. Brahmins are going to have to have a standalone identity, just like the Yadavs and the Harijans. They may not build hierarchies for others. The Bramhin identity is going to have to be a cultural identity. If they disagree, sue them. Take them to court.

Gender violence, caste violence, religious violence. Dial 100 is a good idea. But many more women will have to be recruited into the police force. When an act of gender violence gets reported, the police team that shows up should have at least one female police officer. Riots can be eliminated. There should be an early warning system like for cyclones and tsunamis. Corruption and political interference have to be rooted out from law enforcement. Fast track courts have to be put in place like in Bihar. Maybe Uttar Pradesh will put 150,000 petty criminals behind bars in UP.

Dalits will have to get organized before they can be liberated, and Mayawati’s BSP is the best vehicle for that organization work nationally. Majlis might also make inroads among Muslims nationally if they toned down the rhetoric a little, and if they can show good governance in some major city and also some state. Ultimately it is about governance. You have to show you can put together an appealing political platform, then that you can build an organization and a political campaign that wins you a mandate, and once you get it that you govern, you deliver on the promises. The Majlis president has performed very well in the national parliament, but I don’t see the Majlis governing anywhere. There is work to do. Ironically, Bihar and Uttar Pradesh have lots and lots of Muslims, and there people like Laloo, Nitish, Mulayam and Mayawati are eating the cake. They are not leaving much room for Majlis. Because Majlis has no governance track record in their own home territory. They are a rhetoric party so far. Harijan ke tarah Musalman ko bhi age aana hoga. Hindu ke saath per capita income parity lena hoga. Employment aur housing mein discrimination fight karna hoga. Uske liye lawmaking ki jaroorat hai.

BJP mein Modi ka leadership socially uplifting hai. The BJP could also be competing for both Dalit and Muslim votes. Why not?

NDA GA Bipolarization: 30, 20, 50: What India Needs

The original version of General Electric's circular logo and trademark. The trademark application was filed on July 24, 1899, and registered on September 18, 1900 (Photo credit: Wikipedia)

थर्ड फ्रंट तो था ही नहीं। २०१४ में। और राहुल भी उम्मेदवार नहीं थे। सोनिया ने सक्रिय पहल किया। तो बीजेपी को ३०% और काँग्रेस को मिला २०% ---- और दुर दुर तक कोसो तक एक सफ़ेद धुँवा है फैला हुवा जहाँ ५०% मत बिखरे पड़े हैं। वो थर्ड फ्रंट नहीं है। इसी लिए मैंने कहा देशकी राजनीती एक कॉमेट की तरह है। न unipolar, न bipolar, न multipolar. सफेद धुँवा फैला हुवा है। इससे देश को घाटा है। देश के के हित में है कि एक bipolarization हो जाए। लोकतंत्र को अर्थतंत्र को ये चाहिए।

CBI ने जो रेड किया केजरीवाल के ऑफिस में ये तो बहुत बड़ी बात हो गयी। खबर मिल रहा है कि मोदी ने नहीं करवाया। तो ये क्या हुवा? ये तो एक कु हो गया। इससे पहले जिस सक्स को सीबीआई ने तंग किया वो आज प्रधान मंत्री है। उससे पहले जभी लालु को तंग किए। कुछ समय बाद अंक गणित लालु के पक्ष में आ गयी थी। Waste कर दिया गया।

General Electric कंपनी में है १० साल में लीडरशिप चेंज होता है। तो एक प्रक्रिया है एक रश्म है। भारत में कहा जाता है CBI संसद के अधीन है, पाकिस्तान में ISI पैरेलल गवर्नमेंट के तरह है। कहीं भारत में भी वो समस्या तो नहीं। CBI में कोई सेल है जो data crunching करती है और निर्णय करती है अगला बन्दा ये है। बहुत ही गलत बात है। You can't second guess the people like that. Especially, you can't act upon it to try and influence the democratic process.

Grand Alliance की बात शुरू हुवी है बिहार से। वो बात बिहार से बाहर जाती है कि नहीं वो अभी देखना बाँकी है।

सारे देश के सभी चुनाव पाँच साल में एक बार किए जाने की बात हो रही है। वो गलत होगी। लेकिन पाँच साल में दो बार हो तो शायद सही है। केंद्र, राज्य और स्थानीय। ढाई साल में एक ऐतवार को। बुथ पर जाना है।

यादव और कृष्ण, हरिजन और राम: हरे राम हरे कृष्ण

जब हरे राम हरे कृष्ण वाले किसी गोरा को कन्वर्ट करते हैं तो नहीं कहते अब तुम ब्राह्मण हुवे, या वैश्य। कास्ट की बात ही नहीं होती। हिन्दु भी नहीं कहते। Krishna Consciousness.

यादव कृष्ण के संतति। हरिजन राम के भक्त। यादव का कोइ कास्ट नहीं। हरिजन का भी कोइ कास्ट नहीं। उन पर उपर से थोपा गया है। जिस तरह भारत पर विक्टोरिया ने थोप दिया। सनातनी ने हरिजन को दलित बना दिया। Colonized, Oppressed.

तो इस Oppression को ख़त्म करना होगा।

हरे राम हरे कृष्ण एक राजनीतिक कोएलिशन का भी नाम हो सकता है। लेकिन उसके बाद काम ठोस होना चाहिए। सिर्फ दलित नेता या पार्टी को वोट दे के ये Oppression खत्म नहीं होगा। उसके लिए lawmaking, law enforcement, और पाँच स पर जाना होगा। कोइ किसी को मंदिर जाने से रोकता है तो वो जुर्म नहीं है तो जुर्म बनाओ।

सनातनी अपना standalone identity बनाओ और रहो। ब्रिटेन भी एक टापु है।

कास्ट सिस्टम से बड़ा डिवाइड एंड रुल का हथियार विश्व इतिहास में दुसरा कोई बनाया ही नहीं गया। सनातनी सुरज अंग्रेज दीपक।

शायद दलित को ये कहना होगा हम हिन्दु नहीं हरिजन हैं। हमारा अलग धर्म है। हम रामभक्त हैं।

Kejriwal And Modi: Not On The Same Plank

I was unhappy when Kejriwal tweeted his attack on Modi calling him names. It was not only not the language of a mature democracy, it also sounded inaccurate. He made it sound like Modi had personally directed the raid. I have not read up on the raid, it's not worth my time. If you feel the CBI has wronged you, go get a lawyer. Manmohan Singh did after he got out of office and was subjected to some kind of inquiry. He asked the court to dismiss it, and the court did. Not that Kejriwal is Manmohan Singh.

Such a comment mars India's image that Modi has worked so hard to cultivate ever since he got into office. He had a purpose. India has beat both China and the United States on FDI this year. Is that something, or is that something? Itna bejod kaam ho raha hai. Thos kaam ho raha hai. 

Kejriwal likes to imagine there is some kind of a personality clash going on between Modi and him: not true. There is no evidence. Yaar, size to dekho. Delhi ka size kya hai?

Kejriwal has a mandate. The mandate is to govern. To govern karo. Kaam karo. Apna political height badhane ke prayas mein desh ke PM ko gaali mat bolo.

Agar Modi mein rajnitik sujhbujh hai to wo aisa raid nahin karvayenge. That is yet another reason to believe he was not personally behind it. Because, it doesn't make any political sense. Bahut ghaate ki baat hai. 

Within minutes of the CBI raid on the Delhi secretariat on 15 December, top government functionaries — those sitting in North Block and South Block — spoke with one another to find out whether the raid had the prior approval of any of them. None of them had any inkling....... Prime Minister Narendra Modi displayed ignorance while Home Minister Rajnath Singh was not in the loop either. The Ministry of Home Affairs asked CBI director Anil Sinha and he justified the raids on procedural and legal grounds.......The collateral damage from the raids was colossal in political terms........ The carefully cultivated image of Modi as a leader who believes in the consensual approach lay shattered as the Opposition attacked his government for being “vindictive” against rivals. As expected, Delhi Chief Minister Arvind Kejriwal used this opportunity to launch one of the worst vituperative attacks on the prime minister and subsequently on Finance Minister Arun Jaitley.

DDCA row: Narendra Modi gets furious when he hears my name, says Arvind Kejriwal
During the session, Kejriwal accused the PM of “unleashing” the CBI on the government and said the recent raid on his principal secretary’s office was an “attack on the federal structure of democracy”.

The PM ordered this raid to protect Jaitley,” alleged Kejriwal ..... Questioning the independence of the CBI as an investigative body, Kejriwal said, “The day CBI becomes independent, it will send a notice to Shivraj Chouhan. It will send a notice to Modi to ask him about the money he got for his coat. Sushma and Vasundhara Raje will get notices, not Rajendra Kumar…” ...... Defending Kumar, Kejriwal said, “Hamare afsar ke locker khali mile aur 12 daaru ki bottles mili. Is world ki sabse badi democracy ke PM raid karwaye aur 12 bottles liquor mile to sharm ki baat hai…(The head of the world’s biggest democracy ordered a raid and only found 12 liquor bottles. This is shameful).” ..... Kejriwal also took a dig at the PM’s foreign trips. “He has nothing to do with the country. He has a big plane with all facilities and stays in five-star hotels… Everything runs smoothly when he is out of the country. The day he returns, the CBI is unleashed on the opposition…,” he said. ..... He also welcomed the defamation case filed by Jaitley against him and his partymen. “We will go to Patiala House on February 5… We will give our explanation and the trial will begin. Jaitley will stand in the witness box and our advocate will cross-examine him. This will go on for a year. They have harmed themselves,” said Kejriwal. ..... The DDCA… deals with sports which is under us,” said Kejriwal.

Target 2019: Kejriwal’s anti-Modi moves are rooted in his ambition

the Delhi chief minister has realised that the space for an anti-establishment leader has started growing again in India. And he is making fast and furious moves to occupy the slot before anyone else becomes the pivot of the anti-BJP politics that could become a rewarding pursuit by 2019. ..... The economy has come to a standstill. Growth forecasts have become sobre and sombre: the latest estimate has been revised downwards to 7-7.5 percent from the previous 8.1-8.5 percent. Reforms are stuck, legislative bills are caught in politics of hostility, jobs are not rising, prices — not the ones reflected on indices of data crunchers but on grocery lists of real people — are going through the roof. There is a general atmosphere of hostility and distrust. Promises of achche din have become a painful memory ..... within a year, unless something dramatic happens, a string of electoral results could change the mood on the ground dramatically. .... The party never had a realistic chance in Tamil Nadu and Kerala, where elections are due next .... In Punjab, the Akali Dal-BJP alliance is facing stiff challenge after ten years of incumbency. ....... the ruling alliance is staring at a drubbing in Punjab that could be more severe than the beating in Delhi. ..... Where is the party winning next? Perhaps Assam, but every other state election appears a tough challenge. ..... For the past few days, Kejriwal has been relentlessly attacking the PM and his finance minister with the hope of becoming the leading anti-Modi voice in the country. By punching well above his weight, just like Modi did as chief minister of Gujarat, he is hoping to become the symbol of anti-establishment by the time the next election is around. ...... Kejriwal can progress in politics only if he wins Punjab, or at least puts up a strong show. It doesn't look easy. ..... In Punjab, Kejriwal is facing the challenge of warding off the might of former chief minister and Congress leader Captain Amarinder Singh. The mood on the ground suggests voters are torn between AAP and a resurgent Congress under Singh. Both have equal chances of replacing the SAD-BJP government. ..... Aware of the challenge and the opportunity, Kejriwal is planning to camp in Punjab for almost six months before the elections, leaving Delhi to his deputy Manish Sisodia. If he wins Punjab, demolishes the Badals and pins down Singh, Kejriwal will immediately fancy himself as a challenger to Modi...... Kejriwal's rise, if it happens, won't be a tragic development for the BJP. It will immediately bring his ambition into conflict with that of Rahul Gandhi, Mulayam Singh,

Nitish Kumar — the current frontrunner —

and other regional aspirants, immediately putting under strain the current index of opposition unity, the biggest threat to Modi after anti-incumbency......

Does this explain the BJP's current eagerness to provoke Kejriwal?

Whenever My Name Is Taken, PM Modi's Blood Boils: Arvind Kejriwal

Speaking at the Delhi assembly as his battle with the Centre reaches a new low, Mr Kejriwal added, "BJP leaders have told me in private, whenever my name is taken, (PM Narendra) Modi's blood boils." ..... Calling the raids a "flop", Mr Kejriwal today said the CBI questioned his principal secretary Rajender Kumar for over 50 hours after 14-hour long raids. "But they have found nothing... The raid was aimed only at helping Arun Jaitley," he said. "What the PM did is quite shameful," he said. ..... Taking the charges head-on, Mr Kejriwal said, "What remains to be seen is that whether the inquiry commission will be annulled by the L-G, who Jaitley says is 'our man'... I appeal to Jaitleyji to cooperate with the inquiry commission."

Eliot Spitzer, Barack Obama

Governor Eliot Spitzer and Senator Hillary Rodham Clinton (Photo credit: Wikipedia)

There was a time when Eliot Spitzer was the next President Of The United States and Barack Obama was this good looking Senator you saw on TV who showed no signs of even trying to pass any major bill, but Spitzer was cutting butter with his knife in a major executive position. Obama had announced not only was he not running for president in 2008, he was not even interested in being Vice President. When you have been in DC one month, what else could you say?

Bobby Jindal 2024
Preet Bharara, Eliot Spitzer Parallels

Jewish people are different. I had not met too many before I got to New York City. But the outsize influence was obvious: there was data. 12 million people have imprints that 200 million people don't. A billion have not. That outsize influence is because they have packed so much knowledge per cubic millimeter of brain matter. Generation after generation. As in, others could do this too. Stop throwing stones and sit down and read.

In some micro interactions it struck me as to the level of emotional intelligence. And it was so obvious it was not individual. Part of it was the cubic millimeter thing. Part of it also is the history of persecution. When Hitler kills six million of your kind, that gives you a heightened sense of reality. For example, I had a Beware The Ides Of March moment a few weeks before my cliff fall in 2008, but I did not pay attention. I only saw it in retrospect. It was a Jewish guy. I have had several such micro interactions.

There is this super gifted politician in India. Bihar was the superpower when India was world. I have Bihari heritage. And there is this Jewish-like knowledge heritage Biharis have. Buddha, who gave the world its first republic purely on knowledge power, was Bihari. If they could only get their house in order, they could lead India again, because the future is not in coal, or even solar, it is in knowledge. Nitish Kumar. In terms of political gifts, Nitish Kumar and Eliot Spitzer are alike. You see a butter-knife thing. Bill Gates is a fan. What Nitish has done for Bihar's poor, Bill can only imagine.

Nitish was in alliance with Modi's party for a decade and a half. He walked away a year before Modi ran for PM. Many people think Nitish made the mistake of his lifetime. I am not so sure.

It can be said Eliot Spitzer said, fuck it, the black folks have been wronged too much by this country. And it is possible he combusted. It was a conscious political decision. Like Nitish walked away from Modi.

I identify with Jews on many levels.

When Punjab started combusting as a state in India, it was the leading state measured by per capita income. Both Bobby Jindal and Preet Bharara, I think also Nicky Haley, have Punjabi heritage. It is not rocket science that the most successful group felt acute disrespect. As in, if the disrespect is happening, you are going to feel it. There is no brushing it aside. Why can't people digest headgear? Why do you struggle with turbans and naqabs? The violent part was tragic, beyond tragic. Sikhs are like Jews, small in number but large in impact.

नीतिश को ग्रैंड अलायन्स के लिए सुझाव

• ग्रैंड अलायन्स को एक राष्ट्रिय स्वरुप देने का प्रयास हो। 
• सदस्य पार्टी यो को सभी तह पर एक पद एक उम्मेदवार पर जाना होगा। 
• सदस्य पार्टी के दिल्ली में जितने सांसद हैं सब एक जगह आएंगे, वो निर्वाचक मंडल हुवा। उसमें ५०% से ज्यादा मत जो बटोरे वो ग्रैंड अलायन्स का राष्ट्रिय अध्यक्ष हुवा। 
• वही फोर्मुला राज्य स्तर पर भी लागु हो। 
• लेकिन ये तो संगठन वाली बात हुई। उससे ज्यादा महत्वपुर्ण बात है विज़न। Anti-BJP is not a vision. 
• ५ स: सुशासन, शिक्षा, स्वास्थ्य, संरचना, सुलभता। 
• लक्ष्य है डबल डिजिट ग्रोथ रेट। 

युपी में ऐसा नहीं हो सकता? मायावती और अखिलेश ५०-५० सीट डिस्ट्रीब्यूशन करें २०१७ में। जो ज्यादा सीट जितेगा वो मुख मंत्री। ये बात मायावती को बोलो तो वो कहेंगी आप अपनी हवा मिठाई घी के साथ खाओ। 

Bipolar Politics In India?

As Nitish Kumar Meets Assam Leader, Signs Of A Bihar-Like Formula



I have no idea what Nitish is upto, but a few days back I read he wants a Bihar repeat in Uttar Pradesh. And I was skeptical. Mayawati revolves in a world of her own. For the Nitish swearing in ceremony, her terse response was: "Jana jaroori hai kya?"

But Grand Alliance is a catchy name. It feels like a fresh start. The Third Front has been put to rest. The Federal Front never materialized, except in Mamata's brain.

Never underestimate a Bihari. Biharis are like Greeks. Ek samay ke superpower jab sirf India hi duniya tha. Modi and Nitish are the two most talented Indian politicians of their generation. Easily. Obvious baat hai. And Laloo is a powerhouse on his own. And Laloo's conviction, in a strange way, has turned him into a Nitish Hanuman, which probably would have been hard, perhaps impossible otherwise. Yane ke Laloo ko to koi pad lena nahin. Us sthiti mein political relevance hi bahut bara puraskar ho jata hai. Yane ke alag party hote bhi Laloo ke sare ke sare MP Nitish apna gin sakte hain. Bhagwan deta hai to chhappar far ke. Isi ko kahte hain.

To Bihar ke 40 MP ek nucleus ban jate hain. A national alternative can be imagined around that nucleus.

Pechinda baat ye hai ki Uttar Pradesh is galaxy mein hi nahin. Uska apna hi alag orbit hai. Kucchh planets hote hain, na is galaxy mein, na us galaxy mein. Wo between galaxies fenka jate hain. Andhere mein lattoo ki tarah golchakkar lagate rah jate hain.

Abhi desh ka rajniti na unipolar hai, na bipolar, na multi-polar. Desh ka rajniti abhi comet ki tarah hai. Sirf ek banda PM ke liye lada pichhle saal. Aur us ke pichhe ek lamba dhunwa sa hai koso tak.

To agar Grand Alliance Bihar se failte failte Assam pahunch jaye to badi baat hai. Laloo barishth neta ke rup mein sab jagah golchakkar lagate rahenge. Agar rashtriya star par hi ek Grand Alliance banti hai aur desh ke rajniti mein ek clean bi-polarization ho jati hai to wo desh ke liye, loktantr ke liye, double digit growth ke liye bahut achha hoga. PM bhi development man, Opposition Leader bhi development man ho jaye to sustained double digit growth shayad mil jaye desh ko.

Nitishism akhir hai kya? Nitish ne kabhi codify nahin kiya. Karna chahiye. Ki humne Bihar mein aise kiya. Wo dusre jagah bhi kiye jaa sakte hain. Usi tarah Laloo ko codify karna chahiye. Railway mein unhone jo kiya so kaise kiya. Kisi paschima textbook mein hi nahin hai. Laloo ke populism ("I am a man of the people!") ne western capitalism ko maat kar diya. And it is relevant to India. Jis desh mein ghans kam aadmi jyada ho, wahan people intensive economic activity ki sakht jaroorat hai shayad. Bagair katni chhantni kiye kaise logon ke marfat bumper profit karein. 

National level par Modi bahut aage hain. Indian economy ke fundamental level par itna bejod kaam ho raha hai, iska asar kuchh saal ke baad bade thos kism se padega.

Gelling the Grand Alliance at the national level is hard. Jaise Mayawati ko lo. Unhe to lagta hai BJP aur Congress ke baad hum hi to hain. To pahle unke charan sparsh karo tab koi alliance ki baat karo. Nahin to wo to mere to lagta hai chai pe bhi nahin bulayegi. Akhilesh kam nahin. Mulayam ko PM mano pahle, uske baad hi koi allaince balaince ki baat shuru ho sakti hai. Kahan na maine, kuchh planets galaxy ko hi chhod dete hain. Spin out ho jate hain. Aur Mulayam. Safal rajnitigya rahe hain. Dimag bhi shayad chalta ho. Lekin boli se to nahin lagta. Aur waise bhi wo ek apne hi kism ke Advani hain: way past retirement age. Lekin neta logon ko pata hi nahin chalta. Ghadi mein time kya hai, nabj mein daudahat banki hai bhi ki nahin. Log salam karte rahte hain. To lagta hai ek round aur dekh lete hain, rakha kya hai, log pyar de hi rahe hain.

Nitish ne Bihar mein vikas kar diya. Honestly bol raha hoon, maine kabhi kalpana bhi nahin kiya tha ki koi bhi sakhs Bihar mein vikas kar sakta hai. Like how? Where would you start? Lekin Bihar mein vikas se jyada kathin baat hai UP mein Mayawati aur Akhilesh ko ek jagah lana, usse bhi kathin unhe manana ki koi teesra neta banega. Unhe lagta hai wo hain Amrika, banki Bharat hai Fiji. Size to dekho.

बिहार में हुवा क्या?

नीतिश जिते। वही हुवा। नीतिश को बिहार ने १० साल के लिए मैंडेट दिया है होलसेल में।

नीतीश का मुकाबला खुद अपने आप से है। वो बिहार को २०% ग्रोथ रेट दे सकते हैं या नहीं। मुकाबला वो है। 

२०१९ में मोदी बिहार फिर से स्वीप करेंगे। ४० सीट है बिहार से। २०-२० कर के नीतिश और लालु लड़ते हैं और नीतिश १००% स्कोर करते हैं, तो हुवा २० सीट। २० MP ले के कोइ प्राइम मिनिस्टर बनता है? ये नेपाल है?

वैसे भी बिहार अगर देश होता तो दुनिया का १२ हवा बड़ा देश होता। फ्रांस और जर्मनी का प्रेसिडेन्ट या चांसलर से तो नीतिश आगे हुवे। बिहार के सामने पाकिस्तान क्या है? कुछ नहीं। पाकिस्तान में न तो इकनोमिक ग्रोथ रेट है न कुछ। 

लालु का कभी कभी भाषण सुनो तो लगता है कह रहे हैं, मुसलमान भाइयों, मेरे को वोट दो, सुरक्षित रहो, बीजेपी को वोट दो तो मारे जाओगे। ये कैसी बात हुइ? 

नेपाल में एक पॉलिटिशियन हुवा करता था। नाम था मिर्जा दिल साद वेग। वो मंच पर चढ़ जाता था। कहता था लोगों को: "वोट दो नहीं तो बस्ती जला देंगे!" (बॉलीवुड इन्फ्लुएंस रहा होगा)

लोग सोंचते थे, सड़क पिचिंग नहीं हुई तो कोइ बात नहीं, स्कुलमें मास्टर न आए कोइ बात नहीं, गाओं में बिजली पानी नपहुँचे तो क्या हुवा अभी तक उसके बगैर काम चला लिए तो आगे भी चला लेंगे। लेकिन बस्ती जल गयी तो दिक्कत है। तो मिर्जा ने कभी इलेक्शन हारा ही नहीं। पार्टी बदला एक दो बार फिर भी नहीं हारा। 

एक बार मेरे को मिल गया। मैं अपने एक मन पसंद नेता के ऑफिस में बैठा हुवा था अकेले। कहाँ से न कहाँ से आ पहुँचे मिर्जा। मैंने हाई हेलो कह दिया। वैसे कहाँ मैं सीता नगरी से और वो बुद्ध नगरी से। फिर भी सोंचा हाई हेलो बोल दो पाँच सेकंड में और अपनी बस्ती बचा लो। बचा लिया। 

इसु होना चाहिए कि देश में कानुन है कि नहीं। और जो कानुन है वो अप्लाई हो रहा है कि नहीं? जैसे कि दादरी। हत्या का घटना है। एक तो मर्डर है। जो कि अपराध है। और उपर से hate crime भी है। दोनों गैर कानुनी होना चाहिए। नहीं है तो वैसा कानुन बनाओ। और उसको अप्लाई करना तो पुलिस का काम है। मुख मंत्री या प्रधान मंत्री का नहीं। हालाँकि हाई प्रोफाइल केस है। देश की राजनीति हिल गई। हिलना जरुरी भी है। मुसलमान बीफ नहीं खायेगा तो क्या खायेगा? खरगोश? आप अपना धर्म औरो पर थोपने का काम मत करो, प्रयास ही मत करो। ये मानव अधिकार का मामिला है। Freedom of Religion. 

अपने धर्म के प्रति गर्व करो। लेकिन और किसी के धर्म के बारे में गलत बोल्ने की क्या जरुरत है?

दूसरा मैंने न्यूज़ में पढ़ा चेहरे पर कालिख पोता गया। तो मैंने मन में कहा मोदी उस पर कमेंट करते हैं तो प्रमाणित होगा वो अपना काम नहीं कर रहे हैं। इतना बड़ा देश चलाना है, और आप चेहरे पर कालिख पोते जाने के घटना पर कमेंट करते हो, आप के पास उतना समय है तो अपने पद से राजीनामा दो और दिन भर बैठ के, हात पर हात रख के क्रिकेट कमेंट्री करो। 

मेरे कहने का मतलब भारत का प्रधान मंत्री अगर अपना काम कर रहा है तो उसके पास उतना समय होना ही नहीं चाहिए की वो प्रत्येक घटना पर कमेंट मारता रहे। चेहरे पर कालिख गलत बात है। लेकिन प्राइम मिनिस्टर को malnutrition के मुद्दे पर समय बिताना चाहिए। 

दल से बड़ा देश मोदीजी। तो दिजिए बिहार को दिल खोल के मदत। 

Bihar 5 To 2025

• Law And Order
• Education
• Health
• Infrastructure
• Ease Of Doing Business 

Nitish: India's Opposition Leader

Modi and Nitish are the two most talented Indian politicians of their generation. It is only fitting that one is Prime Minister, and another is now Opposition Leader. Nitish ran on a Bihar@2025 mantra. And so he is not a factor in 2019. Biharis want to keep him in Bihar. That is why they gave him a drubbing last year in the national election.

Modi needs Nitish. Nitish can counter the sometimes extremist tendencies of the RSS the way Modi simply can't.

Nitish Kumar's role greater than Lalu in the victory: Chirag Paswan
Uddhav, Raj Thackeray congratulate Nitish Kumar on big Bihar elections victory
Bihar Voted Against Intolerance, Hatred, Says Congress, AAP, Trinamool
After travelling hundreds of kilometres in Bihar, a reporter’s diary on why Modi lost

voters were clear in judging the BJP’s campaign with its performance so far at the centre. ..... In the middle of the campaign, the prices of arhar dal—split red legume—shot through the roof, becoming a campaign issue. ..... Voters also complained that the Modi government had reduced funds in social welfare schemes, particularly the Indira Awas Yojana, a scheme to help build pucca houses for the rural poor. They were also unhappy over funds drying up in a rural employment guarantee programme and a food subsidy programme, as well as reduction of the minimum support price for farmers. ..... “Modi is good for the country. Perhaps he is good for the cities. But he is not good for the villages” ..... they struggled to name Modi’s biggest achievement as prime minister. “He has improved India’s stature before the world,” they said, and soon became defensive about the prime minister’s frequent foreign trips. ...... He also spoke of the Jan Dhan Yojana, an effort at banking inclusion, which has so far given bank accounts to 190 million citizens for the first time.

Bihar elections: The end of Modi’s juggernaut and the rise of strange bedfellows

Modi was the face—and the dominant voice—of the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) campaign in Bihar but, against foes-turned-friends Nitish Kumar and Lalu Prasad Yadav, the assault has crumbled. The Kumar-led Mahagathbandhan, or Grand Alliance—comprising the Janata Dal (United), the Rashtriya Janata Dal (RJD) and the Congress—is now leading in 177 seats. The BJP-led National Democratic Alliance is trailing at 61 seats. ..... Despite promises, reassurances and much bandying about of rankings, India’s economy hasn’t really kick-started under this government. ..... True, the economy is stable, but hard decisions on important reforms have either been delayed or shelved, and much depends on the government’s ability to spend more and spend better. ...... evidence of the further rise of India’s regional parties as the only real opposition to the dominant BJP. It is also proof of the political space they have come to occupy as a withering Congress party languidly attempts to set its house in order. ..... A group of influential regional leaders—including Delhi’s Arvind Kejriwal, West Bengal’s Mamata Banerjee and Uddhav Thackeray of the Shiv Sena in Maharashtra—wasted little time in congratulating the Kumar-Yadav Grand Alliance and chastening the BJP. ....... With a deft handle on the state’s deeply entrenched caste divisions and a keen sense of the populist pulse, the shrewd Yadav repeatedly returned to power but delivered little on development. .....

Yadav’s RJD won 79 seats, five more than what Kumar’s Janata Dal (United) has mustered.

How partners let BJP down in Bihar
NDA allies Paswan, Kuswaha and Manjhi lose in Bihar, lose clout at Centre
The bloodbath of the NDA allies on whom BJP was banking for its forward-backward winning combination, means that both Paswan and Kuswaha, will have reduced clout in the union government of which both are a part.
Bihar poll result a 'victory of democracy': BJP MP Shatrughan Sinha
Inside Nitish Kumar's War Room, Headed By Prashant Kishor

Sources say Mr Kishor's tested strategy is perception-building, or creating a buzz around a party. For Nitish Kumar, 'chai pe charcha' morphed into "parcha pe charcha" or discussion over pamphlets, which asked people for feedback on the state government's performance in the last 10 years. A "Har Ghar Dastak" (knock on every door) campaign took the outreach further. ...... From giant hoardings to instant rebuttals on social media, the team had to match the rival coalition at every step.

Bihar Election Result: Jitan Ram Manjhi Says Ready to Be Chief Minister If Asked
Ahead of Bihar verdict, Jitan Ram Manjhi says he is ready to be CM
Narendra Modi's party concedes defeat in Bihar election
A big setback for India's Narendra Modi
Narendra Modi suffers major electoral setback on eve of London visit

Mr Modi made repeated visits to the state – which

with a population of 110 million would be the world's 12th-largest nation, if independent

– as the BJP waged a polarising electoral battle on caste and religious lines...... The vote was widely regarded as a referendum on the prime minister’s popularity after 18 months in office as he campaigned hard for a victory that would have helped him pass a stalled national economic reform programme.

12 reasons why BJP could not fan the Narendra Modi wave in Bihar
Prime Minister Narendra Modi's readiness to play communal politics has cost BJP Bihar. We found 11 other reasons too

Bihar has rejected the shrill Hindutva of RSS ...... Modi-Shah were branded as “ baharis” and Bihar selected a Bihari with a vengeance. Familiarity breeds security in voter’s mind....... The Muslim vote bank has not lost potency under the BJP raj and can play a contributory role in defeating or restricting a strident BJP, nationwide. ..... Lalu and Nitish are leaders when it comes to the OBC, EBC and poor while BJP in Bihar remains largely the party of forward classes dominated by Bhumihars. .....

Mohan Bhagwat’s statement on revisiting the reservation policy was nemesis for Modi-Shah.

...... BJP can’t have its cake and eat it too. Mandal and Kamandal can’t go together. Mandal divides Hindu castes. Kamandal survives on Hindu unity. ..... The rule at the Centre is lacklustre and Biharis have said it loud and clear. ..... Lalu Yadav’s earthy responses and one-liners gave fitting reply to Modi’s oratory skill. .....

Amit Shah’s style of functioning made many Bihari BJP leaders hostile. They sabotaged the party’s planning covertly.

....... Money, alone, can not win any election in democratic India.

Narendra Modi-promised achhe din have not come
A victorious Nitish emerges as the face of a national alternative

After blocking the BJP’s juggernaut in Bihar, JD(U) leader Nitish Kumar is being increasingly seen in political circles as the face of a possible national alternative of regional parties to take on the NDA in the 2019 Lok Sabha polls. ...... The Bihar polls were widely viewed as a direct fight between Kumar and Prime Minister Narendra Modi who addressed around 30 mega rallies, the most by any PM in any state election. ......

It is well known in Congress circles that the party’s vice-president, Rahul Gandhi, is also an admirer of Kumar

...... Though several Third Front experiments have failed in the last 15 years, regional satraps could give it another shot at after the massive grand alliance win in Bihar. ..... “After the success of Bihar experiment, joint ventures and mergers will be the order of the day between old political rivals,” a political observer predicted.

PM Narendra Modi, Amit Shah, Arun Jaitley responsible for Bihar loss: Arun Shourie
Four parties that did worse than Nota this Bihar election

Dalits seem to have backed the grand alliance instead of the Musahar leader, who picked up just three seats. ..... Mulayam Singh Yadav walked out of the Janata Parivar in a huff during seat-sharing negotiations, saying the party was being given a raw deal. ...... Asaduddin Owaisi’s Hyderabad-based party .... Once a stronghold of the Left parties, Bihar seems to have rejected both the CPI(M) and the CPI, who together polled less than 2% of the votes and didn’t win a single seat between them.

Bihar election result: Assam BJP disappointed by Bihar outcome
Bihar poll results: Here's why Nitish Kumar should be aware of the fragility of his victory

Nitish Kumar would now emerge as a political fulcrum around which all anti-BJP and anti-Modi political forces would converge. ..... Nitish forged a formidable Muslim-Yadav-Kurmi coalition to which a significant section of the extremely backward classes (EBCs) got drawn. ......

the victory of Nitish Kumar in the assembly election would not change the grammar of Indian politics. Those who worked with Narendra Modi and Nitish Kumar testify that both share many common traits. Both are meticulous, honest, hardworking and come from a humble background. In their respective settings, both are often accused of being “arrogant and authoritative”.

Their politics may diverge but it leaves the scope of the twain meeting in future...... VP Singh’s emergence as a counter to Rajiv Gandhi proved to be politically ephemeral as its ideological base was no distinct from the Congress, which bounced back to assert itself. As the jubilation in Patna fades away and Nitish Kumar occupies the official bungalow at Anne Marg, he would certainly be conscious of the fragility of this electoral victory more than anybody else.

Bihar, where Amit Shah’s one-size-fits all strategy failed

Prime Minister Narendra Modi’s trusted lieutenant has had a relatively smooth run as party boss. Electoral victories in Maharashtra, Haryana, Jharkhand and Jammu and Kashmir helped him consolidate his grip over the organisation. Few complaints were aired in public, although there have been dissenting voices from those uncomfortable with his meteoric rise and take-no-prisoners style. ..... Shah’s one-size-fits-all campaign strategy, developed and perfected elsewhere, lost its novelty in a complex state where political discourse ranged from caste to development to religion. ..... He tried micro-managing the Bihar campaign. The result was bruised egos and dissidence among the state’s leaders and misplaced zeal among thousands of party workers brought in from other states with little knowledge of local equations. ..... Many veterans are pacing on the sidelines for an opportunity to vent their frustration. He is not without his critics in the RSS either. ..... Five states are set to go to the polls in 2016 and he has been spearheading the party’s preparations there. Among them, the BJP is looking to make ideological penetration and increase its footprint in Assam and Bengal.

Bihar becomes 'top Twitter trend' in Pakistan

"Sorry, it's all the smoke from the crackers in Pakistan," tweeted former Jammu and Kashmir chief minister Omar Abdullah. It was an indirect jibe at BJP president Amit Shah. ..... Shah, in an election speech, had said that if BJP lost in Bihar, there would be fireworks in Pakistan. "If by any mistake BJP loses, victory and defeat may be in Bihar but fire crackers will go off in Pakistan," he had said. The BJP-led alliance eventually lost the polls to Nitish-Lalu partnership. ..... Interestingly, Lalu Prasad did create a fan-base of sorts in Pakistan when he had visited the country in 2003. At the time, several Pakistani newspapers had called him 'Bihar ka Badshah' and the politician himself had called for peace between the south-Asian neighbours. "I know people laugh at me and I enjoy that," Lalu, part of a two-day an Indian delegation taking part in a two-day conference of parliamentarians, experts and journalists organised by the South Asian Free Media Association (SAFMA), had said here. "But that's the power of democracy and it's the power of vote that has made me so powerful."

Shiv Sena hails Nitish Kumar, calls him ‘mahanayak’ after victory in Bihar polls
Asserting that it will bring in a "new" turn in the country's politics, Sena leader Sanjay Raut also said if elections were to be held in Maharashtra now, similar results will emerge.

Adding salt to BJP’s wounds, NDA ally Shiv Sena on Sunday hailed Nitish Kumar as “mahanayak” (super hero) after the grand alliance victory in Bihar elections and said defeat “denotes decline of a leader” in an apparent reference to Prime Minister Narendra Modi.

Bihar In The News

Reverse Swing: Narendra Modi’s governance is a lost opportunity
India needed a leader of the nation. Instead, it got the leader of a party.

The conservatism that we see today is not fiscal but religious. The order we see being imposed on India is not national but Hindu. After campaigning the Amit Shah Way, Modi is now governing the Amit Shah Way. There is no calm, there is no reflection, there is no attention paid to what ails the nation. Instead, we have a Nonstop Campaign. There is scarcely a moment or opportunity when Modi thinks of the nation first, and not of his party and its saffron fellow travellers. .....

The BJP had to win elections in Bihar, so the issue of the Madhesis in Nepal was stoked up, Indo-Nepalese relations be damned.

Bihar election results: What would the verdict mean?

A win for the MGB means the opposition will roar. Parliament will witness a renewed vigor. A new model - of alliance of opposition formations - will be sought to be replicated in other states. The setback will be used to attack BJP for both its willingness to turn a blind eye to religious chauvinism, as well as its failure to meet the promises of 2014. Narendra Modi will have to do a drastic review of operations in government. ....... Nitish Kumar will be seen as the only politician capable of taking on Narendra Modi. And that is because the BJP itself, by not announcing a CM candidate and making the PM the star and almost solo campaigner, pitted it as a contest between the two. Kumar’s restrained and understated style, his development record and OBC background, his ideological opposition to Modi, and now his political success will all be seen as assets. And if Congress remains as weak as it is, do not be surprised if he becomes the opposition face in 2019. ...... The win would also be because of

a complete Muslim consolidation, who have voted aggressively but silently to ensure there is no counter consolidation.

The right mix of vikas, jaati and Muslim vote would have won the alliance Bihar. ....... Prashant Kishore .. has been Nitish Kumar’s closest aide for the last year, and even lives in the CM’s residence. Kishore created the campaign around Brand Nitish and made it a presidential contest. He became the bridge between Lalu and Nitish after the alliance was struck. He worked out the campaign to its minutest detail, from who would speak at which rally on what day to the nature of the pamphlets and envisaged how to beat the BJP, with a fraction of its resources. Kishore would become a star, campaigning in India would change, and every leader would begin hiring strategists like the US.

Nitish Kumar led Mahagathbandhan leads by 4 per cent voteshare over BJP-NDA: Lokniti-CSDS survey

42 per cent of the electorates have voted for the grand-coalition led by Nitish Kumar and Lalu Prasad Yadav, whereas, 38 per cent have casted their cote in favour of BJP-led National Democratic Alliance. ..... The survey also predicts that non-aligned political forces could make a mark in the electoral process since thay have bagged 20 per cent of the voteshare. ..... Pappu Yadav, leading his won party Jan Adhikar Manch; Tariq Anwar leading the NCP and firebrand Muslim leader Asaduddin Owaisi

Over 80% Muslims in Bihar voted for Nitish Kumar-led Grand Alliance : Exit poll

84% Muslims supported JDU-RJD-Cong alliance, 08% voted for the BJP-led NDA and the remaining 08% of Muslims opted for other parties including the AIMIM. ..... Former chief minister Lalu Prasad, however, insisted that the Grand Alliance, which also includes the Congress, was poised to win 190 seats. ..... "The entire backward community of Bihar has voted for us," he told the media in Patna. "We salute them for this." .....

Neither Modi or BJP president Amit Shah -- who micro-managed the Bihar election -- nor Nitish Kumar spoke to the media.

...... The Bihar election is a big test for the BJP, whose winning streak since the 2014 Lok Sabha polls was halted by the Aam Aadmi Party in Delhi in February this year.

Random thoughts on the eve of Bihar poll
Why does the Bihar election seem so difficult to decipher? Largely because Bihar is difficult to decipher through numbers and the Bihari voter is inscrutable.

Most of them will observe you, think and then keep silent when asked questions about whom they will vote for.

The state does not have a single private university

, but it has more than 25% of voters below the age of 30. ...... It’s mobile penetration is at par, almost, with India at 89%. Many Biharis charge their mobile with solar energy. Every fifth young voters is outside Bihar. Bihari students shell out Rs 5,000 crore every year to different educational institutions outside Bihar. People here are well-informed and small television channels are robust and outspoken in airing people’s voices. ..... The state is modern if you see the information quotient of the average person, but then

less than 25% of people have access to latrines

and in Bihar less than 5% (yes, five!) people have access to tap water but again, Bihar is different. More than 99% of villages have handpumps. ........ In Bihar only 2.4% villages have ATM machines and less than 10% villages have banks. ...... “Bihar is less communal and more caste-oriented.” ...... Bihar has the highest population growth rate in the last decade and the highest density of population at 1106 per square km. Again, the literacy rate grew fastest from 47% to 61.80% in the last the decade. India’s literacy rate is around 72.99%. ...... Bihar’s growth rate is better than India’s at 9 to 10% and it’s compounded growth rate between 2009-2014 was at 78.1%.

If you see certain figures one feels Nitish Kumar should win hands down.

It has better roads, better power and better railway connectivity. ....... Almost 60% of Bihar is under the direct threat of floods and 70% of the population gets affected by it. Thukral says, “Bihar has the highest number of the lowest land holding. Some 91% of land holding is less than 100 yards. ........

“Nitish Kumar gets credit that Bihar’s crime rate is much less than Kerala’s.”

..... Only 14% of Biharis have access to television, which is much less than Indian average but in bicycles Bihar is higher at 48% than the Indian average of 44%. ..... Unfortunately, Nitish’s Bihar has not been able to create jobs. The negative rate of job creation has made the election exciting because population is restless.

Except lichi cultivation, exports to Nepal and some growth in horticulture Bihar is starving of funds and opportunities.

....... BJP has in its computer 70 lakh mobile numbers of Bihari voters. ....... Bihar was overflowing with Modi and his messages. 27,300 three-wheelers, 2100 buses, 64000 graffiti 4000 tea stall, 18000 car stickers and some 300 plus rallies out of which Modi and Shah ended up addressing more than one sixth of it. ....... In just one election Bihar has witnessed more than 600 large and medium public rallies of Lalu, Nitish and Shah and PM Modi. .......

behind BJP’s so-called negative prospect is that in Bihar, what Dr. Shaibal Gupta calls the social justice constituency is alive and is a force to reckon with. Once Mohan Bhagwat’s statement on revision of reservation system came, the hold over the campaign shifted out of BJP’s hands.

After the Bhagwat moment Shah was left to struggle with his ” booth chalo” mission, only.

CNN-IBN dropped its Bihar exit poll since it predicted landslide victory for Nitish Kumar’s Mahagathbandhan

Leading television news channel CNN-IBN chose not to air its exclusive exit poll on Bihar assembly elections despite promoting it for multiple hours. The decision was taken at the last moment by the editorial team. The outcome of the survey was shocking and contentious. It predicted a landslide sweep in favour of Nitish Kumar by suggesting that the Mahagathbandhan will win the elections by more than a 2/3rd majority. ...... Mahagathbandhan, comprising of Nitish Kumar’s JD(U), Lalu Prasad Yadav’s RJD and Congress are expected to emerge victorious on 169-183 seats, whereas BJP-led NDA is expected to win only 58-70 assembly segments. ........ It is worth recalling that

Axis, the agency which has been rejected by CNN-IBN was the only one to predict a landslide victory in favour of Aam Aadmi Party in the Delhi assembly elections.

It has suggested AAP would win 53(+7-), whereas other media outlets did not predicted more than 45. On the day of results, the Arvind Kejriwal led faction emerged victorious by bagging 67 out of the 70 seats.

JD(U)-RJD will win 190 of 243 seats, Nitish to name dy CM: Lalu

"A decision on the deputy CM will be taken after the election results are out on Sunday," Lalu said, adding that it would be Nitish's call whether or not to have a deputy CM. The inimitable Yadav boss then told reporters that the BJP was nowhere in the picture, and said, "You ask 'how'?" ...... With newsmen bursting into laughter - partly at his supreme confidence as also at the fact that he was giving the alliance 28 more than a two-thirds majority - Lalu explained: "More than 80% Dalits, backwards, minorities and the poor among upper castes voted for the RJD-JD(U)-Congress combine. Only rich voters supported NDA." ..... He then added, "PM Narendra Modi said in his last election rally that Nitish had only six days to rejoice. Lekin hum logon ne Modi ko Chhatthi ka doodh yaad kara diya (we've taught Modi a lesson he'll never forget)," he said. .....

Lalu admitted RSS chief Mohan Bhagwat's calling for a review of the reservation policy played a big role in pushing the poor towards the grand alliance.

...... "They (BJP leaders) were thinking they would divide the backward votes by playing the communal card. But Bhagwat let the cat out of the bag and everyone came to know about the BJP's game plan to snatch quota facility from backwards and Dalits," he said, adding that the polarization among backwards and Dalits this time was more intense than in 1990. ...... In reply to another question, Lalu doubted that Modi has a 56-inch chest.

"Have you seen my chest?

Bihar exit poll 2015: Social media predicts results before exit poll forecasts

Voting was still on and exit polls were yet to go on air when posts predicting Nitish Kumar's comeback started flooding the social media. ...... Midway through the last day of polling, a poll watcher, who has spent more than 30 years in journalism, wrote on Facebook "My understanding earlier was that the grand alliance should do well in the election. Having travelled to entire Bihar, I again feel the grand alliance shall win." ...... Almost 13 hours before, another newspaper veteran had posted a similar prediction in a more categorical manner. "I'm quite bemused by the national and trans-national interest in Bihar polls. But I find no interest or concern in the well-being of Bihar. Lay off poking noses from outside. Where's the discourse on Bihar's well-being? Having said that, I stick my neck out... Nitishji will come back. I wouldn't be surprised if it is a wave poll. And allow me to add: Delhi pundits will gloat on November 8 about campaign gimmickry." ....... One Preet K S Bedi wrote around noon: Max 90 seats for the BJP+. "Apart from wishful thinking, my reasons are it is inconceivable that a CM with 50% approval rating should not win; Lalu has a loyal vote bank; Nitish supporters voted for him despite his alliance with Lalu as he would become the CM if their alliance wins...," Bedi wrote.

Bihar polls: Lalu Yadav talks grand victory while Nitish Kumar awaits verdict

Located about 250 meters from each other, two bungalows on the Circular Road in Patna present a paradoxical picture a day before the counting of votes on Saturday...... While 7 Circular road is the residence of Chief Minister Nitish Kumar, ex-CM couple- Lalu Prasad Yadav and Rabri Devi- are occupant of 10 Circular Road. ..... Although both -Lalu and Nitish- chatted to a group of reporters, they preferred different topics for discussion. If Lalu gave focus on the exit polls prediction during his informal chat with reporters, Nitish had little to say on the same. Both were sitting in open space...... Unlike Lalu who has gone to town to claim his massive win for the Grand Alliance, Nitish is more a listener ever since curtains came down on the polling in Bihar on November 5. ....... If he spoke, it was more about his experiences in his long political career than anything related to Bihar assembly polls. Nitish remembered how veteran socialist George Fernandes had noticed his habit to drink water after delivering speeches. "I was in habit of drinking water after delivering speeches. George Shaheb noticed my particular habit. He suggested me to prefer tea or slight warm water after my speeches. I stuck to George Saheb's suggestion. It now helps me avoid tonsil-related disorder........ "Which place you were camping on the day of polling? What was voting trend," Lalu asked a few reporters.

NDA loses lead after late surge in favour of Nitish Kumar-Lalu Prasad in Bihar: Post-poll survey
Pre-poll survey gave NDA lead of 4%; post-poll trends show Grand Alliance leading; Lalu did better than Nitish.

a distinct turnaround in favour of the Mahagathbandhan ...... As per our post-poll estimate, the Gathbandhan seem to have a lead of 4 per cent over the NDA. The Mahagathbandhan may end up with roughly 42 per cent of the votes while the NDA would have to lag behind with around 38 per cent votes. ..... The smaller parties and independents together might end up with 20 per cent votes. - ...... This election would certainly go down as one where the campaign proved to be critical. The difference in outcomes of the two surveys is also because (as the post-poll survey found) many voters finally made up their mind very late. While one fourth made up their mind either on the day of voting or a day or two before it, another 15 percent decided who to vote for only after seeing the candidates. ...... Rarely in any elections in the recent past, has such a large proportion of voters taken their voting decision at the very last minute. The survey found that the late swing of voters benefited the Mahagathbandhan. In many ways, this has been an election of several paradoxes. ....... As we had noted in the pre-poll analysis, the Mahagathbandhan began with a goodwill in favour of Nitish Kumar. At the same time, the central figure campaigning for NDA, Prime Minister Narendra Modi too, had a very robust positive image. So, it has been a contest between the state level leader and the national level leader. Another paradox is that while Nitish Kumar’s popularity and developmental record has certainly helped the Mahagathbandhan do well,

it is Lalu Yadav’s RJD which is likely to do better than the JD(U) as per our post-poll survey.

Nitish-Lalu bonhomie has spawned Jai-Veeru duos across Bihar

Before the election, there was an apprehension that JD(U) and RJD workers couldn't work together..... However, the synergy between grand alliance workers has been exceptional ......

Seeing the Nitish-Lalu bonhomie, the workers also saw themselves as Sholay's Jai and Veeru

..... Why JD(U) workers found it easier to deal with RJD as allies than the BJP ..... Take Rajkumar and Rafique for instance. While the former is an RJD worker, the latter belongs to the JD(U)....."We campaign together during the day as well. We distribute and circulate the publicity material given to us. Sometimes we also take part in door-to-door campaigning," Rafique says...... "We feel like Jai and Veeru from 'Sholay' ... but the real Jai and Veeru are Nitishji and Laluji," Rajkumar says........ Thoroughly enjoying their own joke, they begin deliberating who Gabbar Singh is and the names of the BJP's top two come up. The candidates for Samba and Kaalia are largely from the saffron party's state unit. .....

Sholay jokes apart, this bonhomie between RJD and JD(U) cadres and, to a lesser extent, Congress workers, could be seen across the state.

...... Mohammad Alamgir is an RJD worker in the Sursand constituency in Sitamarhi district. In the middle of the election campaign, he went for a pilgrimage to the Dargah of Khwaja Moinuddin Chishti at Ajmer. "I went to pray for the Mahagathbandhan's victory," he says. ...... There is very little ideological difference between the RJD and the JD(U), both of which are offshoots of the Janata Dal. And the Congress, being a marginal entity in Bihar, isn't viewed negatively by the workers of either of the parties. ..... "In fact we used to find it difficult to deal with the BJP, especially when its leaders like Giriraj Singh made communal statements," says JD(U) worker Shahid Alam. ...... On being asked why he was getting agitated, Paswan said, "Nitish Kumar is my leader in Bihar. People say I should support Ram Vilas Paswan. Why should I support him just because he belongs to my caste?"

Nitish Kumar thought of starting business after two poll defeats, says book

Following two successive defeats in the assembly elections of 1977 and 1980, current Bihar chief minister Nitish Kumar had pondered to start a business ...... "Nitish's family had been getting impatient with his failures. The choice of taking up a job on the basis of his engineering degree was still there." ...... "Nitishji asked his wife Manju, who was a teacher at a government high school at her paternal village of Seodah, to give him one last chance with politics during the 1985 elections," the book titled "Ruled or Misruled" says. ....... The 339-page book mentions many interesting tales about Kumar, Lalu Prasad and Sushil Kumar Modi - all products of the 1974 movement launched by Loknayak Jayprakash Narayan.

Bihar exit polls prove wrong media pundits who handed win to Nitish-led alliance after only two phases

As exit polls reveal, both sides remain neck and neck. Of the seven exit polls that have come, four give clear advantage to the Mahagathbandhan and three to the NDA. Two exit polls, NewsX-CNX (130-140) and ABP-AC Nielsen (130) predict decisive victory for the Nitish-led alliance while two others predicted decisive victory for NDA. News24-Today Chankaya, which has often hit bullseye, predicted 155 seats for the NDA and NDTV-Hansa, which conducted a more thorough exit poll with a sample size of 76,000 and analysed it in greater detail, came out with the conclusion that the BJP-led NDA could win 120-130 seats.

‘Bihar has not changed much since my childhood’
Bihar hasn’t progressed much in terms of education and employment, he adds.

Samir Kumar is convinced that if his family is well-off today, it is because they chose to look for opportunities outside Bihar. While his father made the journey from Naraipur village in Bihar’s West Champaran district to Patna decades ago looking for opportunities, Kumar moved first from Patna to Rajasthan for “good school education” and later from Patna to Bangalore for a better life. ...... “Ultimately, Bihar is my state. But when I see the state, I realise it has not changed much since my childhood. When I compare it with places like Bangalore, I find that things are not happening’’ ...... Bihar hasn’t progressed much in terms of education and employment, he adds. “Most people in Bihar try to become an engineer, doctor or an IAS officer. When I was studying in Bihar, there was a thinking that if you don’t get a seat in the IITs, there is no point getting an engineering degree.” ..... Though he hasn’t learnt Kannada, people in Bangalore have been very accommodating, he adds. “The beauty of living in Bangalore is that the local population is very accepting of outsiders. It is not the same in other metros where you need to speak the local language in public spaces.”

Bihar results: When Modi discussed philosophy with Nitish and Lalu
Forget exit polls, Bihar's verdict will be a Game of Others
While they won't win many seats, they are capable of wrecking the ship of either alliance and the worst-hit will lose the game.

Others, consisting of independents and small parties, have been a force to reckon with in Bihar politics for the past four decades. They have played a key role in hung assemblies, especially in 1990, to elect Lalu as chief minister of the state for the first time and also in 2000 to elect Rabri as CM (though to a lesser extent as compared to 1990)....... In March 2005, others got 37 seats, which led to a hung Assembly and the imposition of President's rule for six months. In the re-elections held in October in the same year, the Nitish-led NDA (JDU+BJP) defeated Lalu's RJD to end 15 years of his infamous regime and "others" were reduced to 22 seats. Since then, their influence has reduced considerably and in 2010 when the NDA swept the state, their seat tally fell to the lowest ever: eight seats. ....... Earlier, they would win 39 to 55 seats, with vote share as high 32 per cent. ....... In untied Bihar (till 2000), the South Bihar parties demanding statehood for Jharkhand had a significant presence and were included as "others". Many independents have also been winning from Bihar (the highest being 30 in 1990). The majority of them were proverbial "bahubalis" ...... A poll of polls (7 polls- six released on Thursday, one by NDTV on Friday) shows a hung Assembly, with NDA at 118, MGB at 117 and Others at eight. If this happens, the others/independents/rebels will have the last laugh and Bihar may revisit the times of horse trading days it saw in the 1990s.

Between Bihar exit polls, a movie outing for Sushil Modi
On his part, Modi, sitting at his 4, Polo Road residence, seems sure the party will win at least 140 seats.

Having addressed 180 rallies during the polls, former deputy chief minister and BJP legislature party leader Sushil Kumar Modi looks like he has lost weight. Finally on Friday, he finds time to watch Pyar Ka Punchnama 2 with his family. ..... He does not find merit in reports claiming that a high turnout of women voters meant they voted for CM Nitish Kumar’s uniform and bicycle schemes. “Ek yojana ka labh do bar nahi milta (One scheme does not yield electoral dividends twice). After EVMs were introduced and booth capturing stopped, women started coming out to vote in bigger numbers. Second, most women whose husbands and family members live outside the state make it a point to vote. I doubt if they do not consult their husbands or elders before casting their votes.” “But there is no point taxing the mind now, when it is just a matter of hours,” he says.

Bihar: Man Of The Match

Who Will Win Bihar?

English: Shashi Tharoor in the Global Redesign Session. Participants captured during the World Economic Forum's India Economic Summit 2009 held in New Delhi, 8-10 November 2009. (Photo credit: Wikipedia)

The polls are all over the place, and both alliances are claiming a two thirds majority. So right now the picture is not clear at all. I am not sure, but at this juncture, I'd be surprised if Nitish loses. This was an election for the job of Chief Minister, and Nitish was the only one running.

Last year Nitish got a drubbing in Bihar for two reasons. One, Modi was a great candidate, he had both a lower middle class background and a low caste background, plus he projected development. And Modi was the only person in the country running for Prime Minister. Two, Biharis were in no mood to lose Nitish. The work Nitish had done since 2005 was his doing. Nobody else in his party could fill his shoes, and Jitan Ram Majhi proved that beyond doubt. I like the idea of a Mahadalit Chief Minister, but I like the idea of someone who can govern and give economic growth much more.

Nitish winning in Bihar is not bad news for Modi nationally. In fact, it is terrific news. Modi became Prime Minister last year, but nobody became Opposition Leader. Nitish will claim that seat if he wins. But Nitish will be limited to Bihar. He is not going to have an impact in Uttar Pradesh in 2017 which I expect the BJP to sweep like so much kura kachara. And Nitish is not going to be a factor in 2019. He campaigned with a Bihar@2025 promise. And the Bihari voters will know better than to let him off the hook.

Bill Gates, the richest, smartest philanthropist in the world also tried to do right by the poor people of Bihar. But Gates can not match Nitish. Political leadership is such a powerful weapon at the service of the poor. There is no substitute.

I am going to give Modi two more years before I start judging him. At least two more years. In my reckoning he has been excellent. India leads all countries in terms of how much FDI it has attracted so far this year. That is but one metric. I have watched him in action near daily since he won, and he has impressed me like few politicians I have followed over the years. He is extremely good. Right now I'd be surprised if 2019 becomes a worry for Modi. I expect him to take the Indian growth rate past 10% and to win an easy re-election in 2019.

The Indian media is not as sophisticated as the Bihari voter. The Bihari voter knows the difference between a national election and a state election. The India media? I am not so sure. If Nitish wins, the media that has spent over a year building up Modi like he were superman will spend about six months trying to question his every move. That is how they sell newspapers. They want little fights. They need to build up and then break down. Whereas the fundamentals of who Modi is and what he does will not have changed at all. Modi will keep showing up for work.

I have become a Modi fan. But I am also a Nitish fan. Nitish has been good for Bihar. Heck, he has turned a hopeless situation into something akin to a small miracle. Bihar's trajectory of the past decade has been unexpected, at least to me.

Nitish in Patna and Modi in Delhi is the best of both worlds, for Bihar as well as for India. Nitish doing the Opposition Leader role in Delhi would have caused a havoc. He might have been too effective. But Patna is a safe distance. And he will have a job to do.

A lot of people forget that Nitish was the first major Indian politician to have called Modi a future Prime Minister. I don't smell any personal dislike between the two. It would be good for Modi that someone of Nitish's caliber will now be Opposition Leader.

I just hope Nitish does not engage in knee jerk opposition. India needs thoughtful, constructive opposition, the kind Shashi Tharoor has offered at times.

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Should The BJP Lose Bihar

There are indications the BJP might lose Bihar. Should that end up being the case, that will be testimony to the enormous sophistication of the Bihari voter. They gave the country a Prime Minister last year. This year looks they might give the country the Opposition Leader in Nitish Kumar. Modi and Nitish are easily the two most talented politicians on the Indian stage today, both having stellar records on economic growth issues. 

Last year, Modi was the only one running for Prime Minister. Rahul was not running. And there was no such thing called the Third Front. No wonder Modi won. This year in Bihar Nitish has been the only one running for Chief Minister. How can you win if you are not even running? Who was running to be the BJP Chief Minister? The most likely candidate, Sushil Modi, sounded like he was never happier than when he was deputy to Nitish. By his own admission Nitish is the superior political talent. 

But a Bihar loss might not be such bad news for Modi. He will still likely win Uttar Pradesh next year. And he might still sweep Bihar in 2019, as long as delivers and takes the economic growth rate to 10% plus by then. 

India is the most vibrant democracy on the planet. India is not China. An Opposition Leader is a good thing. 

बिहार ने देश को PM दिया, अब लग रहा है Opposition Leader भी देगा
Bihar Is Make Or Break For Modi
लालु यादव: मौसम वैज्ञानिक

बिहार ने देश को PM दिया, अब लग रहा है Opposition Leader भी देगा

उड़ती चिड़िया को हल्दी लगाती है बिहारका वोटर 

-- श्री लालु प्रसाद जादव 

Mid-campaign blues for BJP

The Prime Minister's campaign outings in Bihar are given a break, then rescheduled. The Narendra Modi-Amit Shah monopoly on billboards ends and a cast of local leaders is mounted on hoardings to sell Brand BJP. After weeks of being left to their devices, allies are suddenly called on board for consultations....... If there is a palpable mid-campaign flutter in the BJP backrooms, there may be good reason for it. Key strategies employed by the party have either not worked or backfired.... BJP strategists privately admit the Yadav consolidation behind Lalu in this election is far greater than during the 2014 Lok Sabha election........ RSS boss Mohan Bhagwat may only have added to the growing ranks behind Nitish and Lalu by his repeated calls for reviewing reservations for the underprivileged....... more than half its tickets have gone to upper castes, who form the core base of the party. It has not been able to credibly fight off speculation that it should it win, it will return Bihar to "upper caste raj" after a quarter century. ...... To Bihar's empowered, and majority, Mandal classes, that is not a palatable prospect. If they are hearing Lalu's " amir-garib, adga-pichhda" call, and rallying around, it is a sign they are not willing to give up their power stakes. ...... The BJP tried, with fair determination, to counter the Bhagwat effect with beef. For a period, three senior partymen - Sushil Modi, Giriraj Singh and Dharmendra Pradhan - were tweeting daily and energetically on cow and cow consumption, as if it had become their chief issue. ......

In an uncharacteristic - and desperate - departure from form and image, Sushil Modi even dared Lalu to drink cow-urine in public to prove his love for the bovine classes.

..... after having been showcased a fortnight or so, beef is off the forefront of the BJP's Bihar agenda. The beef spike was among the things that belied the BJP's claim it was contesting the election solely on development. It was also a clue that the party was lost for a clear strategy in Bihar. ...... The Modi wave of 2014 had arched over the many complex caste equations of Bihar. But this is not 2014 redux. To try and enact a repeat of the 2014 Modi-centric poll too may not be working. ...... Unlike the discredited UPA, Nitish is a strong incumbent even after two terms in office, and rides a pro-incumbency sentiment for work done during his years in office. ...... Between Nitish, Lalu and the Congress, the Mahagathbandhan could also ensure minimal rupture of the Muslim vote .......

Modi continues to gather huge crowds but he isn't creating ripples..... but Modi isn't a candidate in this election. And he hasn't made it clear to Biharis who his candidate is.

Lies and half-truths: How Nitish outsmarted RSS, BJP in their own game in Bihar

Politics, like war, is an art of deception. Disinformation and rumours are essential in the arsenal that political parties build to demolish rivals. The RSS-BJP may have earned a formidable reputation, or notoriety, at least in general perception, for deploying falsehoods and half-truths to create a smokescreen to attain political goals, but in Bihar it appears to have met more than a match in Nitish Kumar and Lalu Yadav....... There is little doubt that Nitish Kumar has been resorting to convenient half-truths to deepen the fault-line that exists between Narendra Modi and Sushil Modi. Nitish, who was associated with the BJP for over 17 years, is quite aware of the frictions within various groups of the party. There is little doubt that Sushil Modi fully endorsed the idea of keeping Narendra Modi away from the campaign in Bihar elections to avoid consolidation of Muslim votes in favour of Lalu Yadav. But Sushil was not alone as he found unqualified support from the central leadership. LK Advani, Rajnath Singh and Arun Jaitley found merit in the logic of “keeping away Narendra Modi from Bihar” and deliberately excluded him from the campaign till 2010........ in those days, Sushil Modi was seen as an extension of Nitish Kumar. And there are several instances to prove that till Nitish parted his company with the BJP, he enjoyed unflinching loyalty of Sushil Modi as deputy chief minister. This was evident when Narendra Modi, after winning 2012 assembly election, walked into a meeting of the national development council (NDC) and was greeted by central ministers and all chief ministers except Nitish Kumar at Vigyan Bhavan. Sushil Modi who accompanied Nitish Kumar at the NDC also chose to ignore Narendra Modi and avoided greeting him. The apparent reason for Sushil Modi’s insouciance was his belief that it would be too difficult for the Gujarat strongman to emerge at the national scene given the perception of him being a polarising personality....... As the Bihar battle appears to be in full gear, Nitish Kumar has been strategically washing off his own intransigence towards Narendra Modi by pinning the blame on Sushil Modi. The move is clearly aimed at driving his adversaries in disarray by sowing seeds of doubts within the enemy’s camp. In Bihar election, Nitish Kumar and his team successfully created many smokescreens to cover up their real political objectives.

More recently the JD (U)-RJD successfully spread the rumours that Narendra Modi’s rallies were called off in various places in view of the imminent defeat

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