Showing posts with label Xi Jinping. Show all posts
Showing posts with label Xi Jinping. Show all posts

Wednesday, September 04, 2019

Carrie Lam, What Took You So Long?



After months of protests, Hong Kong leader Carrie Lam withdraws controversial extradition bill The decision to cave in to one of protesters' five core demands marked a dramatic U-turn for Lam, who for months has refused to withdraw the bill. ....... Pro-Beijing lawmaker Michael Tien said that Lam's withdrawal may not stem their anger. "I believe the withdrawal of the bill ... may be too late because this movement has become more than the bill," he said........ Speaking to reporters Tuesday, Lam said she had not "contemplated to discuss a resignation" with her mainland superiors. ...... Many will be asking why it took three months of unprecedented unrest, violence and damage to the city's economy for the government to upgrade the bill from "suspended" to "withdrawn," despite repeatedly insisting that it had no future and would not be reintroduced. ....... Lam may be hoping that the move will put a lid on the protests ahead of October 1, when China will celebrate National Day and mark 70 years of the People's Republic. ...... "The nature of the protest movement has transformed over the last 13 weeks," said Adam Ni, a China researcher at Macquarie University in Sydney. "She will have to take further steps, such as setting up an independent inquiry into police conduct. If she does not take further steps, then we can expect the protests to continue."

She should have taken this step within a week of the protests starting, at most. But three months!? By now the key demand is universal suffrage. And there she has no authority to accept the demand. Only Beijing can do this. Or what?



Hong Kong And Beijing: The Water Will Break The Dam
Hong Kong Chief Executive Can't Choose To Quit
Steve Bannon, Hong Kong, 1989, And The CCP
Hong Kong Protests: The World Should Not Watch A Possible Massacre
Why Hong Kong Needs A Directly Elected Chief Executive
The Hong Kong Protest Lacks Political Sophistication
Hong Kong: The Shenzen Angle
Could Andrew Yang Become President?

This move by Carrie Lam shows victory is in sight for the Hong Kong protests. The movement is not asking for Hong Kong independence, but it is asking for universal suffrage. I read that to mean, all members of the Hong Kong legislature need to be directly elected by the people as the Chief Executive. This is the key demand. I support it 100%.

The Chinese mainland itself has to move towards directly elected leaders. Ultimately.

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Tuesday, September 03, 2019

Hong Kong And Beijing: The Water Will Break The Dam

I am trying to understand what might be going on.

Xi Jinping is the only one who can decide. But he is acting above the fray. And the way the system is designed, people who report to him are trying their best to make him look like the tough guy he is supposed to be.

That works if all you have to do is wait. In a few weeks, the whole thing will fizzle out.

Well, it has been more than a few months, and the whole thing is only gathering more momentum.

The political system in China is not designed to respond to what has been happening in Hong Kong. What has been happening is under the full glare of global media, old and social. The whole thing is being webcast live. The Chinese communists don't know how to respond.

Hong Kong is a bigger threat than Donald Trump and the trade war. It is like Beijing is having to fight two wars at once, neither of which is military. A military war would be relatively easy. This is a phantom war.

The system is inflexible. Formally withdraw the extradition bill and the whole thing might go away. But they can't even do that. The system is that inflexible. It will break, but it will not bend. The folks in Beijing are naive in thinking the breaking point is far. Objects in the rearview mirror are closer than they appear.

How might this whole thing play out?

One fine morning the protesters wake up and realize they don't want to do this anymore. This is what Beijing is counting on. This is the least likely scenario.

The other extreme is Beijing sends in troops. This would be the stupidest move on their part. That will end communist rule inside China, guaranteed. The CCP will not celebrate a new year.

The moderate scenario is where Beijing starts by accepting the key demand. Or it even accepts all five demands and claims it a victory for one country, two systems. But this makes too much sense. If they were to do this, they would have done it already. The political system in China runs like a rhinoceros. It does not know zigzag.

I feel like Beijing might have already entered a no-win phase in this situation. Damned if you do, damned if you don't. Although I can't be too sure. And I have not been reading enough on the details.

We will know when the dam starts to break. It might be in the form of one arrest too many, one beating too many by the Hong Kong police. Or support protests in the other cities of the world. Or the protesters managing a complete shutdown of everything in Hong Kong, the airport, the stock exchange, everything.

While Beijing moves towards October 1 like an ostrich.



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Hong Kong Chief Executive Can't Choose To Quit

Hong Kong leader says she would 'quit' if she could, fears her ability to resolve crisis now 'very limited' Protesters have expanded their demands to include complete withdrawal of the proposal, a concession her administration has so far refused. ....... Lam suggested that Beijing had not yet reached a turning point. She said Beijing had not imposed any deadline for ending the crisis ahead of National Day celebrations scheduled for October 1. And she said China had “absolutely no plan” to deploy People’s Liberation Army troops on Hong Kong streets....... Lam noted, however, that she had few options once an issue had been elevated “to a national level,” a reference to the leadership in Beijing, “to a sort of sovereignty and security level, let alone in the midst of this sort of unprecedented tension between the two big economies in the world.” ...... In such a situation, she added, “the room, the political room for the chief executive who, unfortunately, has to serve two masters by constitution, that is the central people’s government and the people of Hong Kong, that political room for maneuvering is very, very, very limited.” .....

The Chinese government rejected a recent proposal by Lam to defuse the conflict that included withdrawing the extradition bill altogether

...... But she said China was “willing to play long” to ride out the unrest, even if it meant economic pain for the city, including a drop in tourism and losing out on capital inflows such as initial public offerings. ....... “Nowadays it is extremely difficult for me to go out,” she said. “I have not been on the streets, not in shopping malls, can’t go to a hair salon. I can’t do anything because my whereabouts will be spread around social media.” ...... Lam, a devout Catholic, attended St Francis’ Canossian College ..... After studying sociology at the University of Hong Kong, she went on to a distinguished career as a civil servant in Hong Kong. She was elected city leader in March 2017 by a 1,200-member election committee stacked with Beijing loyalists....... On July 1, 2017, the day she was sworn in, Lam donned a white hard hat as she walked with Xi to inspect the new Hong Kong-Zhuhai-Macau bridge, which physically links Hong Kong to mainland China. ....... Lam and her government later came under fire for banning the party and the disqualification of pro-democracy lawmakers. ...... Pollster Robert Chung said Lam’s success in pushing through many controversial proposals bolstered her belief she would be able to ram through the extradition bill....... At the meeting last week, Lam said the extradition bill was her doing and was meant to “plug legal loopholes in Hong Kong’s system.” ....... “This is not something instructed, coerced by the central government,” she said........ “And this huge degree of fear and anxiety amongst people of Hong Kong vis-à-vis the mainland of China, which we were not sensitive enough to feel and grasp.”




Let that sink in a little. Carrie Lam, the Hong Kong Chief Executive appointed by Beijing, is saying she does not have the option to quit. Everyone has the option to quit. But no, not Carrie Lam.

She just made a strong case for why the Chief Executive for Hong Kong needs to be someone directly elected by the people.

Not only can she not quit, obviously she thinks she does not have the option to privately tell people in Beijing that, hey, maybe you should get someone else. They are not listening. Going public with the opinion, she calculated, was her best chance to be heard in Beijing. That is dysfunction.

Meeting the five demands of the Hong Kong protesters keeps intact one country, two systems. There is no loss of face for Beijing in accepting the five demands. But not even the top demand has been met after all these months. Beijing is so divorced from Hong Kong realities. It is as if Beijing were London, and Hong Kong was Delhi.

Maybe the shelf life for communism is 70 years. That is how long it lasted in Russia. It has been 70 years in China. All the Hong Kong protesters have to do is stay put.

I don't blame Carrie Lam. She does not have the power to accept or reject the demands. The whole thing is above her pay grade. Whereas the committees in Beijing act like deer in the headlights. They know they are powerless in the face of the protests. They think if they wait long enough, the whole thing will go away. Wishful thinking.
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Tuesday, August 27, 2019

Why Hong Kong Needs A Directly Elected Chief Executive

Carrie Lam has zero incentive to respond to the street protests. 13 weeks of protests and she is still saying the extradition bill can not be withdrawn. She answers to Beijing, not to Hong Kong citizens. 
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Sunday, August 25, 2019

The Hong Kong Protest Lacks Political Sophistication

The Hong Kong protests are the most heartwarming political action on the planet right now, with Andrew Yang surging in the US a close second. It is good to see people care about an issue enough to shut a city down.

But what is happening in Hong Kong is a protest movement. It is not yet a political movement. If success is getting people out into the streets, this has been success 13 weeks in a row. But getting people out into the streets is not the end goal, can not be.

Everybody who is out in the streets should come together in one political organization and should elect itself leaders at various levels, with a central committee, and ultimately one elected leader. It should put out its five key demands and set a deadline. Unless Beijing meets its five key demands within a set time period, the goal of full political independence should be announced. That is the only political threat Beijing will respond to. As for protests, Beijing simply plans to wait it out. I would not be surprised if the logjam continues even after 23 weeks of protests.

One country, two systems is not a bad idea. But Beijing has been eroding the rights of Hong Kong citizens. The key demands right now keep Hong Kong within one country, two systems. But it is telling that Beijing has not accepted even the most important demand. 13 weeks of unprecedented protests and Beijing still has not scrapped the extradition bill. As good as dead is not dead. There is a proper procedure to withdraw a bill.

The Chinese army's saber-rattling in Shenzen is not a threat to snuff out the protests. It is a threat to invade should Hong Kong declare independence. And to that end Hong Kong needs to seek out global allies. It needs to ask for solidarity in all major cities of the world.





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Friday, August 23, 2019

Hong Kong: The Shenzen Angle

Looks like China has its own Bay Area.



The Bay Area in California is not big enough for all the innovation that needs to happen.

If you make Shenzen like Hong Kong, that only adds to Hong Kong.

And, of course, the big backdrop is the South China Sea, the most geopolitically seismic zone on the planet. Peace and harmony here will make space for the ocean cities of tomorrow.

The Hong Kong protests have not gone to a higher level and become a political movement. It will be more productive as a political movement.

The recent move by Beijing on Shenzen is smart and positive. They intend to make Shenzen more like Hong Kong. The gesture, I hope, is or is made credible.

I don't understand the intransigence on the part of the Hong Kong leadership. Why not meet the top demand immediately? Why not formally pull out the extradition bill?

That a massacre is not likely is good news. On the other hand, the protests can not go on forever. Three months is a long time.

I happen to think this Hong Kong Greater Bay Area is more like the US Northeast than the Bay Area in California. Short route hyperloops could closely integrate the region into one megacity.

I don't see evidence this Shenzen move is abrupt. It has been a long time coming. I also don't see it as a move to spite Hong Kong. It is actually a mature move. It is a signal to Hong Kong that Hong Kong will not become more like Shenzen, rather Shenzen will become more like Hong Kong.

I am pleased with this move by Beijing. It is non-violent, it is respectful, it is mature. It is also politically sound from Beijing's perspective.

What has been happening in Hong Kong are at the level of a protest movement, not a political movement. An official end to the now shelved extradition bill will go a long way to soothe nerves.

My primary concern is that there should be no violence. From either side.



China’s Grand Plans for Shenzhen The new plan for Shenzhen also shines a light on China’s long-term strategy toward Hong Kong. ........ China’s State Council and the Central Committee of the Communist Party of China issued a new guideline earlier this week outlining an ambitious plan for the future of Shenzhen, a major city in southeast China’s Guangzhou province that links Hong Kong to the mainland. ....... a Greater Bay Area that would integrate the Hong Kong and Macau Special Administrative Regions with nine other municipalities in the surrounding region in Guangdong province (Dongguan, Foshan, Guangzhou, Huizhou, Jiangmen, Shenzhen, Zhaoqing, Zhongshan, and Zhuhai), which account for approximately 12 percent of China’s national GDP and a combined population of 70 million people. ...... “breaking new ground” on economic growth, reforms, and innovation and take the practice of “one country, two systems” a step further ...... Shenzhen has a population of more than 12 million people and was the site of the mainland’s first special economic zone. ...... Chinese technology giants like Huawei and Tencent and telecommunications company ZTE house their headquarters in Shenzhen. The city is also the third largest and busiest container port in the world, while it ranked 14th in the 2019 Global Financial Centers Index (Hong Kong took the third spot, by comparison)....... Shenzhen’s economy surpassed Hong Kong’s for the first time in 2018, reaching HK$2.87 trillion compared to Hong Kong’s HK$2.85 trillion in the same year. The starker difference remains the disparity in the growth rates of the two Pearl River Delta metropolises, with Shenzhen’s GDP notching a 7.6 percent growth rate, while Hong Kong’s economy rose by just 3 percent.

CHINA’S ALLEGED PLANS TO MAKE SHENZHEN BETTER THAN HK NOT QUITE WHAT THEY SEEM The Chinese government has set up additional goals for making its pride city of Shenzhen a world-leading metropolis within the next five years. ...... China’s warning to Hong Kong, amid the ongoing protests in the city. The outlets suggest that the timing of the plan’s release is a signal from China that the central government is willing to siphon benefits away from Hong Kong and toward other municipalities within the Greater Bay Area, should the HKSAR continue to step out of line....... The goal of making Shenzhen a “pilot area for socialism with Chinese characteristics” was first proposed in May 2017 by the Shenzhen Municipal Committee of the Communist Party of China (CPC). In 2018, the Shenzhen Municipal Committee of the CPC outlined a plan for making Shenzhen a “pilot area” from 2018 to 2035. The document was submitted to the central government for approval. ....... By 2025, the government wants Shenzhen to become one of the world’s leading cities in terms of economic strength and quality of development. Its research and development output, industrial innovation capacity, quality of public services and ecological environment are expected to become first-class in the world ....... “High quality development; pilot area of the city of rule of law; model of urban civilization; role model of livelihood and happiness; [and] pioneer of sustainable development” are the six general goals listed in the document...... the plan is proposing to “continuously improve the level of openness of Shenzhen to Macau and Hong Kong, support Shenzhen in building a big data center in the Greater Bay Area, vigorously promote the humanistic spirit in Greater Bay, encourage Shenzhen to co-organize various forms of cultural and artistic activities with Hong Kong and Macau, constantly enhance the sense of identity and cohesiveness of Hong Kong and Macau compatriots, strengthen the cooperation of digital creative industries in Guangdong, Hong Kong and Macau, and use Hong Kong and Macau’s exhibition sources and exhibition industry advantages to organize large-scale cultural exhibitions.”

China's State Council calls for Shenzhen integration with Hong Kong, Macau Hong Kong, one of the world’s busiest ports, is on the verge of its first recession in a decade as violent anti-government protests scare off tourists and bite into retail sales and investment....... The directive called for the “modernization of social governance” in Shenzhen via the “comprehensive application of big data, cloud computing, artificial intelligence and other technologies.” ...... to further develop the Hong Kong-Macao Greater Bay Area and “enrich the new practice of the ‘one country, two systems’ policy.” ...... Hong Kong returned from British to Chinese rule in 1997 under a “one country, two systems” formula that promised wide-ranging freedoms denied to citizens in mainland China, but many in the city believe Beijing has been eroding those freedoms.

China plans to make Shenzhen a 'better place' than Hong Kong China's government has unveiled plans to boost the mainland city of Shenzhen and make it into what state media called a "better place" than neighbouring Hong Kong, following another huge rally in the semi-autonomous financial hub...... Weeks of rallies, demonstrations, and occupations have plunged Hong Kong into crisis - which Beijing is now framing as an opportunity for Shenzhen's development...... By 2035, the southern Chinese city will "lead the world" in overall economic competitiveness, the document said...... Published on Sunday, the timing of the policy document coincided with the 11th week of demonstrations in Hong Kong - the biggest challenge to China's rule of the semi-autonomous city since its 1997 handover from Britain...... The former British colony of Hong Kong operates under a "one country, two systems" framework, which gives citizens rights unseen on the mainland, such as freedom of speech...... The policy document said that individuals who are from Hong Kong and Macau but work and live in Shenzhen would be treated as residents....... The guidelines also support creating a "more open and convenient" entry and exit system at its borders, and allowing foreign permanent residents to launch science and technology enterprises - potentially trying to encroach on Hong Kong's territory as an easy place for international businesses to be based. ...... The city is already a key part of Beijing's "Greater Bay Area" policy, which plans greater integration between Hong Kong, Macau and mainland Guangdong province, where Shenzhen sits........ Beijing is keen to pull the three regions even closer - "enriching" the practice of one country, two systems and "continuously enhancing the sense of identity and cohesiveness of Hong Kong and Macao compatriots" via cross-border cultural activities....... the guideline demands Shenzhen "comprehensively improve its democracy and rule of law and expand people's participation in politics in an orderly manner under leadership of the Communist Party of China".
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Friday, August 02, 2019

WTO Reform: A New Round Of Trade Talks Are Necessary



Bilateral will do no good. This is like India and Pakistan going bilateral on Kashmir. No progress has been made in 70 years. If the US and China insist on resolving this on their own, there might be no progress.

This is not about saying the US is right about China, or China has a point. This is about the very mechanism of talks, the very framework. The issues come later.

China might not be a western-style democracy. But Germany is. France is. The UK is. Italy is. India is a democracy. You want all of them at the table.

Infographic: Here’s How the Global GDP Is Divvied Up



The US seems to be 25% of the global economy, but that is very far from 100% or even 51%. The European Union, Japan, India, and China are important players. By now the supply chains in the global economy are so complex, it makes little sense to not give the major trade powers seats at the table. China and the US can not do this alone.

There is economic theory around trade. Much of it supports trade. But then there is the politics of trade. And that can sometimes decouple from the economic theory. If your goal is to fill up the streets of Hong Kong with protesters, maybe the trade war is a good idea. But that does not seem to be the stated goal. The US trade deficit might be more to do with the US dollar's position in the global economy.

A prolonged trade war might cost Donald Trump the 2020 election. He might lose even without it. The polls show him at 42% and trailing Joe Biden in every battleground state. The dude might get impeached. Maybe there is no firewall for him in the US Senate. Maybe it will be Pence versus Harris in 2020. Who knows?

There is political peril for both sides. The Chinese army out in the streets of Hong Kong will seriously undermine the Chinese Communist Party. This is not 1989. You can not cover it up.

The biggest political peril is that the two powers drag the global economy into a major recession, and that gives rise to all sorts of fascists around the world.


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Saturday, June 29, 2019

Big Winner Of China US Trade Truce: Huawei













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Friday, June 28, 2019

US, China, Milky Way, Andromeda



This so-called US-China trade war I compare to the future projected collision between the Milky Way and the Andromeda galaxies. This clash is political. At some level, it was inevitable. It had to happen. And there is no going back. We will end up at some new equilibrium. Both powers will change in the process. The world itself will change. I think the primary casualty will be the nation-state itself. There will be no Milky Way left. There will be no Andromeda left. Something new will form.

The WTO is only as strong as its two largest trading partners will let it be. And there the train has already left the station. This tussle necessarily asks for fundamental reform of the WTO. But the US will not be the sole power shaping that new form. This tussle creates an opportunity for many powers who are represented in the G20 grouping to flex their muscle and wake up to the fact that they do have a seat at the table.

The elephant in the room, though, is technology. The US demands Huawei deliver on issues where the US technology giants themselves have a poor record. Privacy and security issues plague the tech sector like plastic waste in the Pacific. Here I propose the creation of a T100, a grouping of the top 100 technology firms of the world measured by market cap that meet on the sidelines of G20 and take the lead on issues of privacy and security. Trump asking Huawei to offer ironclad guarantees on security is like that emperor who demanded a flooded river to stop, just stop. Huawei alone can't do it any more than Google and Facebook have been able to. The CIA has got to be the top stealth organization when it comes to cyber snooping. I would not be surprised if the Chinese are a close second. They both take advantage of the security flaws in hardware and software that are extremely hard to patch.

5G is way more monumental than any road, or bridge, or port, or rail China can build with its Belt And Road Initiative. 5G is that infrastructure that will finally level the playing field for the Global South. Trump cannot be allowed to stand in the way of 5G deployment. On the other hand, take stock of all the privacy and security issues the world has had to encounter over the past 25 years and multiply that by 100. Much faster internet, much more ubiquitous internet will mean greater challenges for privacy and security. Here the T100 needs to take the lead. There are technological solutions. There are common standards to agree on. There is also room for law enforcement. But no nation state is at the center of this debate.



There is no way out for China from this trade war than through some major structural reforms which, by the way, would be good for the Chinese economy. Some of the structural reforms that are being demanded will make sure state funds do not go to state-owned enterprises that are losing money on massive scales. Such moves will make China more efficient and more competitive.

The US will also see structural changes. The 2020 election will see the rise of the Social Democrat. The US will likely go for Medicare For All. The US will become more like China on education and health.

And there's the all-important Clean Energy. On that, the two powers must fully cooperate. The problem is too big for any one of them to go solo.

In the clash of the two powers, that at some level was inevitable, both will fundamentally change and will become more like each other. But when the dust settles both will have become unrecognizable from their current vantage points.

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The Trump Base

The 2016 election saw a large swathe of working-class whites gravitate to Donald Trump. These people used to be reliable Democrats. And it is hard to argue the only source of support has been racism. There are serious economic anxieties.

The 2016 mandate was that the US was tired of playing the world's policeman. For one, it is too expensive. The US spends something like 700 billion dollars every year on defense. For a fraction of that amount, it could solve the housing crisis, the education crisis, and the health crisis. It could make a serious dent in its infrastructure woes.

Trump questioned NATO. And people were aghast. But he was only responding to his mandate. Perhaps NATO is indeed a Cold War relic. Whether that is the case or not, a lot of Americans seem to think it is too expensive.

Globalization worked. Trade has worked. A lower-middle-class American today can go to her local Walmart and purchase stuff that Queen Victoria of England could only have dreamed of at the height of British power. There have been immense rises in productivity.

I wholeheartedly supported the idea of Trump holding summit level talks with the North Korean leader. I support the same between Trump and the Supreme Leader of Iran. Why not? Trying to reason things out in person is the basic democratic impulse. It is the most human thing to do.

Or, hey, how about video conferencing?

It is important to take Trump out of the picture and see that something happened in 2016. The US as a country is trying to readjust. The US feels like its defense treaty with Germany and Japan are no longer sustainable. They cost too much money. And perhaps they do. New arrangements have to be sought.

Maybe we are looking at a scenario where Japan gets an army again.

Peace on the peninsula would help. North Korea wants a peace treaty. That peace treaty would guarantee that the US will not invade North Korea. That North Korea wants such an assurance speaks to the paranoia of the regime. But that peace treaty is a small price to pay for peace. Normalized relations between the two Koreas would have cascading influences. We will very likely see a Germany repeat. And Japan will have many fewer security concerns.

The 2016 mandate has to be seen as a call for a new world order where the US plays a less central, a less expensive role. Some of the things Trump wants on trade can only be achieved if the dollar is no longer the global currency. Perhaps it is time for something like Libra, a currency resting on the Bitcoin technology that is pegged to a basket of the five major currencies of the world.

Trump spotted the well of anger in 2016. I don't think he has the solutions. The solutions he offers are misguided at best.

Take intellectual property law as an example. It makes no sense for the US Congress to pass intellectual property law and then impose that on the rest of the world. The US Congress is not the Congress for the whole world. A global parliament needs to shape something like that.

There are a lot of people who are happy someone is finally standing up to China. There are a lot of people who are very happy someone is finally standing up to the US. Both powers should take note.


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Monday, June 10, 2019

Trump Will Pull A Mexico On China

This is what happens when you elect a reality TV star to the highest office in the land. The guy watches TV all day. He gets his intelligence briefings from the television set.

If you want to understand the China-US trade war, just treat North Korea as a case study. Trump's Mexico stunt was a signal to the Chinese. Look, guys, I need a deal. I can't not have a deal. Give me the cosmetics. I need some headlines.

We are about to enter phase two of the art of the deal. Trump is going to send the most amazing negotiator in the world to the negotiation table. Already a Xi-Trump dinner has been scheduled.

The roller coaster ride will end up in much of the same old, same old. And Trump would like to thank the farmers in Iowa for putting him on TV.



A Bad Scenario For Trump
The Possible Outline Of A Deal Between Xi And Trump In June
Trump And Xi Should Cut A Deal In Japan
Mueller Drops A Bomb
A Sanders-Warren Ticket
Donald Trump Is Messing Up A Good Thing
5G Challenges US Hegemony
Brexit, Aexit, And Trump
Understanding China (2)
Trade War Commentaries
Trade War: Intellectual Property
Trade War Endgame: Other Scenarios
Trade War Endgame Scenarios: Look At Canada, And North Korea For Hints
The US And The Chinese Economies Are Super Well-Connected
Trade War Endgame Scenarios



Trump threatens new tariffs over a deal that Mexico says doesn’t exist According to Mexico, the two countries didn't agree to much of anything new.
AP: Donald Trump’s Deputies ‘Surprised’ by His Win on Mexico and Migration
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Monday, June 03, 2019

Real Donald Jerry Seinfeld Trump?



We look for grand strategy. There is none. People accuse Trump of lying: "Four lies in one tweet!" Trump is not a liar, but a bullshitter. A bullshitter is such a habitual liar, he does not know, he does not care he is lying. If you know Trump, he is a joke. If you don't know him, he is a fascist. Hitler was a joke in 1920s Germany. He was considered a clown.

Trump won 2016 by spending very little money. As late as August he was way behind in the polls.

It is funny until it is not funny. Real lives are at stake.

A fascist intimidation of Mueller and Pelosi is on full public display. Ken Starr did pronounce Bill Clinton guilty and recommend impeachment to the Congress. Mueller's logic that he cannot pronounce guilt was not applied in his statement to the media. He could not prosecute, but he could pronounce guilt. But he was intimidated. He made it clear he has no desire to appear before Congress. He does not want to be at the receiving end of fascist harangues. A guy who was the top law enforcement officer of the country is running intimidated. That shows Trump is not funny. He is dangerous.

Pelosi's intimidation is on full public display. The moment Hillary lost the election in 2016 is when she fainted on TV. And she fainted a few days after Trump said in a debate with her about rape in the military: "Whichever genius came up with the idea of women serving in the military!"

That is extreme emotional intelligence but going in the dark direction. He swatted every Republican competitor in the race with a phrase or two. There was Little Marco. Bush was a shame to his family.

He did the same to the voters. You are angry? Let me tap into that.

That fountain of anger has stayed with him. Step back and look objectively. Is he not doing everything he can to push the US economy and the global economy into a Grand Depression? There is a cliff and he knows it. Once he manages to push the global economy into a Great Depression, it might take anyone a decade to turn things around. But the point is, if more people are going to be angrier, his support base is going to expand. That is what he is counting on. Yes, there is a strategy. Those who say Trump has no strategy are in denial.

Fascist intimidation is working. Pelosi has until October. After that, the presidential campaign sucks up all the oxygen in the room.

The country is in meltdown mode. Steve Bannon and Donald Trump both are looking for a "hard Brexit" for America. Britain wants a divorce with Europe. America wants a divorce with the world.

Are we moving towards a WTO minus the United States? Will that be as harmless as a Trans-Pacific Partnership minus the US? Experts tell us trading blocs are no solution. They were a feature of the Great Depression of the 1930s.

These are dangerous times. This trade war is not a China-US war. It affects every country. Every country needs to speak up.






Andrew Yang: The Only One With A Solution
In The News (3)
In The News (2)
A Bad Scenario For Trump
In The News (1)
The Possible Outline Of A Deal Between Xi And Trump In June
Will The Trade War Force A New Equilibrium?



CIA admits role in 1953 Iranian coup The CIA has publicly admitted for the first time that it was behind the notorious 1953 coup against Iran's democratically elected prime minister Mohammad Mosaddeq, in documents that also show how the British government tried to block the release of information about its own involvement in his overthrow...... Britain, and in particular Sir Anthony Eden, the foreign secretary, regarded Mosaddeq as a serious threat to its strategic and economic interests after the Iranian leader nationalised the British Anglo-Iranian Oil Company, latterly known as BP. But the UK needed US support. The Eisenhower administration in Washington was easily persuaded....... Mosaddeq's overthrow, still given as a reason for the Iranian mistrust of British and American politicians, consolidated the Shah's rule for the next 26 years until the 1979 Islamic revolution. It was aimed at making sure the Iranian monarchy would safeguard the west's oil interests in the country....... One document describes Mosaddeq as one of the "most mercurial, maddening, adroit and provocative leaders with whom they [the US and Britain] had ever dealt". The document says Mosaddeq "found the British evil, not incomprehensible" and "he and millions of Iranians believed that for centuries Britain had manipulated their country for British ends". Another document refers to conducting a "war of nerves" against Mossadeq.....

Mosaddeq epitomised a unique "anti-colonial" figure who was also committed to democratic values and human rights

..... there was never really a fair compromise offered to Mosaddeq, what they wanted Mosaddeq to do is to give up oil nationalisation and if he'd given that of course then the national movement would have been meaningless....... The basic facts are widely known to every school child in Iran
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Saturday, June 01, 2019

In The News (1)



Trump’s biggest mistake in US-China trade war: not realising the Chinese will never genuflect again China’s leaders know full well that the so-called trade war is not just about buying more soybeans or Boeing aircraft, or agreeing to a trading concession here and a compliance there. The US is demanding nothing less than having China submit to its will and give up its lead in certain cutting-edge technologies and industries. Beijing sees that as a bid to colonise China by another name and has called it out as such through its media. ....... proponents of American hegemony have decided that it is now or never to take China down while it is still vulnerable....... For the Americans, it is either doubling down or coming around, however reluctantly, to accepting that China will never cave in and that working out an arrangement in which both countries can cooperate as well as compete without disrupting the entire global economy and order is the next best option.





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Friday, May 31, 2019

The Possible Outline Of A Deal Between Xi And Trump In June

Will The Trade War Force A New Equilibrium?

  • Both parties agree to roll back all tariffs immediately. 
  • The US ends its harassment of Huawei, although it could choose to not use Huawei equipment for its 5G efforts. China lays to rest its rare earth minerals threats. 
  • China agrees to a set of structural reforms and agrees to a review of the progress every two years. 
  • China agrees to buy substantially more agricultural products from the US. 
  • China agrees to additional purchases to the tune of $30 billion. 
  • Both powers agree to call a meeting of the WTO for a new round of negotiations with all countries of the world participating. The US takes all its grievances to the WTO. The negotiations might last a few years. 
  • The two powers organize a gathering of the top 100 technology companies of the world for a Privacy And Security Summit along the lines of the Rio Summit in 1992 for the environment on the sidelines of the G20 Summit next year. The top 20 economies and the top 100 tech companies thrash out solutions. How much of it is about agreeing on common standards? How much of it is about lawmaking and law enforcement? How could the law enforcement agencies of the world cooperate? How much of it is technical? How much is beyond reach and awaiting further advances in technology? 
  • The T100 is a permanent forum meeting annually on the sidelines of G20. 



No President Is Above the Law First, a hostile foreign government attacked our 2016 election to help candidate Donald Trump get elected. Second, candidate Donald Trump welcomed that help. Third, when the federal government tried to investigate, now-President Donald Trump did everything he could to delay, distract, and otherwise obstruct that investigation....... That’s a crime. ..... He’s referring President Trump for impeachment, and it’s up to Congress to act.

Business groups are considering legal action against the White House over Mexico tariffs The powerful U.S. Chamber of Commerce is mulling its legal options in response to the duties...... While top business organizations have repeatedly slammed tariffs Trump levied on trading partners such as Mexico, Canada and China, a lawsuit would mark a major escalation in their opposition to White House trade policy....... The duties could damage key U.S. industries such as auto manufacturing, and crucial 2020 electoral states such as Arizona, Michigan and Texas could feel particularly sharp pain from the tariffs.

GOP lawmakers, business groups slam Trump's Mexico tariff threat
Making Sense of the New American Right
Trump and Bibi’s Bad Week
Trump's approval rating hits highest point in two years
Jeremy Siegel says Trump must cut a trade deal with China to protect the two pillars his re-election case: The strong stock market and economy “The market wants a solution,” says Siegel. “Don’t forget, the market didn’t really want this trade war.” .... Since Trump’s tariff-threat tweet on May 5, the S&P 500 has lost about $1.1 trillion in value. ....... stocks could drop 10% to 20% if the U.S. and China were to dig in during trade talks, he said, “The market is going to continue to react” if Trump wants to push China to be the end....... “You can pull victory out of defeat. No one is really going to look at the details,” the Wharton professor said, stressing that the president has a bully pulpit to cast any agreement with China as a victory even if it’s just so-so.

Beijing experts’ latest message as trade talks stall: The US needs China sentiment contrasts with that of Chinese state-run media, which is emphasizing China’s ability to stand up to the U.S. ...... as long as there is negotiation, then there will be results ..... Beijing would like to keep negotiating with the U.S. It could even be a years-long process that cycles through negotiation and fights ...... China has been removing ownership restrictions in some industries such as financial services and autos. This March, Beijing also rushed to pass a new foreign investment law that officially prohibits forced technology transfer and increases the protection of intellectual property rights. In June, the government is also set to release an expanded list of industries to which foreign businesses can have access. ...... Some have hoped the trade tensions would push Beijing toward important changes to the structure of its economy.



We asked the Democrats running for president how they would negotiate with China on trade. Here’s what they said “Donald Trump has shown he knows nothing about trade,” says Rep. Seth Moulton...... Five Democrats say any trade deal with China should address human rights issues. Among them: Sen. Bernie Sanders, who said he would target American firms that provide surveillance equipment. ...... “China is going to eat our lunch? Come on, man,” Biden told a crowd in Iowa earlier this month. ....... Sanders: It is in the interests of the United States to work to strengthen institutions like the WTO and the UN rather than trying to go it alone. American concerns about China’s technology practices are shared in Europe and across the Asia-Pacific. We can place far more pressure on China to change its policies if we work together with the broader international community and the other developed economies. International institutions also offer China a template for reforming its own internal intellectual property and industrial practices. ...... Sanders: Yes. Labor protections are very weak in China, and the rights of workers are an essential component of human rights. The Trump administration has proven itself indifferent to labor rights, and apparently would prefer that American workers are reduced to the position of Chinese workers, rather than that labor everywhere enjoy basic protections and strong standard of living. The Trump administration has also done nothing to pressure China over its abhorrent treatment of the Uighur and Tibetan peoples. Future trade negotiations should, for example, target American corporations that contribute surveillance technologies that enable China’s authoritarian practices............ Sanders: While China has adopted some better practices, it still has a long way to go. The Trump administration is correct to put pressure on China to reform its practices, and I hope that some good comes from current trade negotiations. The economic relationship between the United States and China has been the engine of global growth for the past 25 years, and we should acknowledge that in China it has lifted hundreds of millions of people out of poverty. In both China and the United States, however, the benefits of this growth have not been shared equally, and have accrued in a very disproportionate way to the very wealthiest. The problem is that the Trump administration is mainly interested in addressing some of the imbalances between America and China overall, when it also needs to address basic drivers of economic inequality. The future of this relationship requires both a degree of pressure on China, and reform of the economy inside the United States itself. ....... Sanders: The U.S. has a role to play in supporting bilateral and multilateral diplomacy between China and others in the region to deescalate and handle disputes. The best policy in both the near and long term is to strengthen international institutions, in this case the United Nations Convention of the Law of the Sea (UNCLOS). The United States should press China to abide by internationally agreed guidelines for managing maritime issues, in no small part by ratifying UNCLOS itself. ......





Elon Musk’s SpaceX is now worth more than Tesla Musk is the largest shareholder and CEO of both companies, with a 54% stake in SpaceX and more than 20% ownership of Tesla........ investors shouldn’t rule out the possibility that Musk could use his SpaceX stake to “collateralize” Tesla. “There’s a precedent for Elon Musk to think across his portfolio of companies”

Cramer: The US economy ‘could be on the verge of a significant slowdown’ executives are also weighing the odds of the Democratic Party winning the White House in 2020 ...... “yields don’t protect you anymore ... the stocks keep falling on fears of a worldwide tariff-related slowdown.”

Markets signal to US and China on the trade war: You have ‘blundered into a minefield’

The New York Fed’s gauge of recession probability over the next 12 months is now at 27.5%, the highest since the financial crisis.

..... “It’s like lighting a match. You think you know how to control it. That’s where the uncertainty comes in” ...... Whether it’s increased expectations for interest rate cuts, decreasing expectations for inflation or queasy bond and stock market investors who are more aggressively pricing in slower growth, the message is being sent to the U.S. and China that danger lurks. ..... the ecosystem around the economy and the trade headlines remains fragile.

China won when Trump blindsided Mexico with tariffs, says former Mexican ambassador to China
US manufacturing activity dives to more than 9-year low on trade war worries, survey shows
Grover Norquist urges Trump to get rid of trade tariffs, calling them taxes on US consumers
Major Wall Street banks jeer Trump’s Mexico tariffs: ‘Damaging at a number of levels’
‘Very dangerous’: Putin, Trump want to weaken the European Union, top official says
GOP lawmakers, business groups slam Trump's Mexico tariff threat

Making Sense of the New American Right The conservative intellectual movement has been and continues to be fractious, contentious, combustible, and less of a force than most assume....... The debate over Trump's character and fitness for office opened, or poured salt on, wounds that have not and will not heal. ...... The president did not win a majority, captured a smaller percentage of the popular vote than Mitt Romney, and took the Electoral College thanks to 77,000 votes spread over three states. It is also the case that to date President Trump has been most successful when he has adhered to the traditional Republican program of tax cuts, defense spending, and judicial appointments. ........ The rise of Donald Trump, Brexit, and nation-state populism throughout the world certainly suggest that something has changed in global politics. American conservatism ought to investigate, recognize, and assimilate the empirical reality before it. The trouble is that no one has concluded definitively what that reality is. ....... They believe the nation-state is the core unit of geopolitics and that national sovereignty and independence are more important than global flows of capital, labor, and commodities....... the conservative terrain has become so difficult to navigate that it's useful to have a map. ..... the people who remind us that America is not ruled from above but driven from below. ...... Social decline, he said, is related to the loss of manufacturing jobs. It happened in the inner cities. Now it's happening in the Rust Belt and in rural America. When jobs disappear and low-skilled male wages decline, family formation breaks down. ...... advocated a national industrial strategy ...... the frayed bonds that barely connect working-class Americans to each other ....... they are certain American foreign policy should be restrained, within constitutional bounds, and prioritize diplomacy over military force. ...... Economic freedom has brought about a global system of trade and finance that has outsourced jobs, shifted resources to the metropolitan coasts, and obscured its self-seeking under the veneer of social justice. Personal freedom has ended up in the mainstreaming of pornography, alcohol, drug, and gambling addiction, abortion, single-parent families, and the repression of orthodox religious practice and conscience. ..... the "strong gods" of familial, national, and religious authority. ...... turning away from the secular world and shielding, as best you can, spiritual life. ...... "to use these values [of civility and decency] to enforce our order and our orthodoxy, not pretend that they could ever be neutral." ...... Rather than asking the question, ‘What should conservatives/progressives do?' considerable advances can be made through certain purely practical considerations: ‘How can the integrity of the national political community be assured?' ‘How can commercial activity and technological development continue to be turned toward the common good, and toward our own strategic advantage?' ......... For decades now our politics and culture have been dominated by a particular philosophy of freedom. It is a philosophy of liberation from family and tradition; of escape from God and community; a philosophy of self-creation and unrestricted, unfettered free choice. ........ "celebrates the individual," Hawley went on. But "it leads to hierarchy. Though it preaches merit, it produces elitism. Though it proclaims liberty, it destroys the life that makes liberty possible. Replacing it and repairing the profound harm it has caused is one of the great challenges of our day."

Trump and Bibi’s Bad Week Even on Fox News, Mueller’s statement was greeted as a significant blow to the President, with the network’s chief political anchor, Bret Baier, telling viewers that Mueller had directly rebutted Trump’s claim of “no collusion, no obstruction.” ...... Washington and Jerusalem are facing twin crises, disputes over the reach of executive power in the face of scandal and investigation. .....

politics have become a crude reality show

.... “There are all kinds of things happening that, several years ago, could only be a figment of our imagination.” ..... We are living in a real-time seminar on democracy’s dysfunctions. ....... the context of the rise of authoritarian-minded right-wing populists across the Western world ...... It can all seem overwhelming—too many little crises to keep track of. ...... Whether or not there is anything to be done about it, the collapse of the liberal order is, in fact, happening. ........ the number of democratic countries in the world has fallen every year for the past dozen years. ...... E.U. parliamentary elections confirmed that the right-wing populism that fuelled Brexit and political discontent across the continent remains a potent force; populist parties received the largest share of the vote in four of Europe’s six largest countries. ...... Tumult is the new normal.



Trump’s Crazy Mexico Tariff Is Stoking a Meltdown on Wall Street In writing about Donald Trump, there is a daily temptation to say that this time he’s gone too far. ...... Trump’s move could derail congressional approval of a new trade deal with Canada and Mexico. ......

The only real constraints on Trump’s actions are the courts, the opinion polls, and the financial markets.

...... If the new tariffs do go into effect, they will raise the prices for consumers on a wide range of goods, which could produce a popular backlash. ...... eighty-two per cent of self-identified Republicans approve of Trump’s trade policies...... the President of Mexico, Andrés Manuel López Obrador, has already indicated that he won’t jump to attention. ..... (On Thursday, López Obrador sent Trump a letter in which he said, “Please, remember that I do not lack valor, that I am not a coward nor timorous but rather act according to principles.”) ...... Trump seems to believe that he can target anybody for his bullying ..... this latest Trump power play is so extreme and potentially self-destructive that, according to the Wall Street Journal, even his own hard-line trade adviser, Robert Lighthizer, opposed it. ....... On Wall Street, there is a lot of nervousness about where things are heading, and whether Tariff Man understands the risks that he is taking. Financial markets don’t usually go south gradually; they collapse suddenly, in a heap. ....... he’s going to have to blink on tariffs, because the market can’t live with this level of crazy.”

Trump's approval rating hits highest point in two years 48 percent approve of the job Trump is doing ..... “Every point of increase in this range of 45 to 50 improves the possibility of re-election.” ...... The president’s job approval rating is at 42.5 percent in the RealClearPolitics average. A recent Rasmussen Reports survey found Trump at 48 percent, but six other recent polls found him ranging between 38 percent and 44 percent.

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