Showing posts with label Xi Jinping. Show all posts
Showing posts with label Xi Jinping. Show all posts

Sunday, October 13, 2019

Gangster Words Spoken By Xi Jinping: Shattered Bones

These words are gangster. I am surprised they are coming out of the mouth of a president in this day and age. Shattered bones?



I worry for Hong Kong. I do. No, I don't fear a military crackdown. But what is already happening is bad enough.

Let me explain the military crackdown part. This is not me saying what should happen. This is not me being an advocate. This is me talking like a political scientist, or analyst, or student of political science, or simply a blogger. Should Beijing go for military action in Hong Kong, that will start a chain reaction that will lead to a collapse of the communist party inside China. The tariffs that only the US has imposed all major countries will impose. That will give China its first recession in decades. There will be sudden mass unemployment and subsequent mass unrests. There is no police, no intelligence service, no surveillance camera, no facial recognition software, no tank, no gas canister that will save the regime beyond a certain point. And that is sad because it is unnecessary.

The Soviet collapse lead to a major contraction of the Russian economy. It led to the rise of the mafia. Living standards fell across the board. By population Russia is like a small province of China. The same level of instability will be too much if it happens inside of China. Too much for China, too much for the world.

I wish the protests were completely non-violent. But then I also wish the Hong Kong Police followed their own guidelines and did not engage in uniformed as well as ununiformed vigilantism.

But the onus is on Carrie Lam and Xi Jinping. They have the power to decide that they will simply sit down with the leaders of the movement and negotiate on their five demands. The five demands stay within the one country two systems paradigm. What seems to be the problem?

A Marxist is supposed to be a scientist who faces data. The data is out in the streets of Hong Kong. This is a golden opportunity for Xi Jinping to give China its third revolution of political reforms.





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Friday, September 27, 2019

A Criticism Of The Hong Kong Protestors

I attempt a criticism of the Hong Kong protestors because they are fighting for democracy, and it is a democratic act to criticize. I hope this is considered constructive criticism.

First of all, let me make it clear. Mahatma Gandhi said at one point, if it is a choice between protesting injustice violently and nonviolently, I'd prefer you protest nonviolently. But if it is a choice between protesting violently and not protesting at all, I'd prefer you protest. What are a few blocked roads or burnt railings between friends!

But having said that, I'd like to emphasize, if there are even only a few acts of vandalism, a few acts of property damage, a few acts of violence, that shows the movement lacks internal discipline of the highest degree. That internal discipline is what gives you moral authority.

It does not matter what the police do. The Hong Kong police have crossed the line a few times, true. The Hong Kong police protected vigilantes have crossed the line many times, true. But if you respond in kind, you lose some of your moral authority. The right political thing to do is to not react, to maintain internal discipline. And to create and maintain that internal discipline, you need internal political organization, internal dialogue.

"If we burn, you burn" is not a political program. I have been hearing more and more of that lately. That line of thought has to be consciously abandoned. Beijing is trying hard to tell the world, this is like the yellow vest protests in France or the forest fires in California. It will burn and die out on its own.

Unless the Hong Kong protest movement makes the extra effort towards that internal discipline and away from the "if we burn you burn" mantra, the movement might break all records in terms of how long it might last, but it might not see the success it seeks.

That is one thing I have to say about the method.

Another thing is dialogue. The Hong Kong protest movement needs to engage Carrie Lam and Beijing in an intense dialogue. Beijing has put out comment after comment on the protests in the global media. Those comments have gone unanswered. They need to be answered. Every such utterance needs to be answered.

You can not be fighting for democracy and say, Carrie Lam, we don't want to talk to you. Dialogue is basic to democracy.

Why do you want to talk to Carrie Lam?

The top of the five demands has already been met. The final demand, that of a directly elected Chief Executive, and a fully directly elected legislature is most important to me.

But there is room for compromise on some of the other demands. I agree that all protesters who have been detained should be released and their charges dropped. But when you ask for an independent inquiry of the police behavior, one has to ask, to what end? So the police officers might face disciplinary action? The room for compromise is to forgive and be forgiven.

A good outcome of a direct dialogue with Carrie Lam will also be to get her to say that it is simply not in her powers to meet the final demand. It is above her paygrade level. And that is true.

So, she has met one demand. I think she can meet another, that of releasing the 1,000 plus protestors that have been detained. But the protest movement has to be willing to compromise on two others. And the final demand has to be taken to Beijing. How do you do that?

There is a protest path. And there is a dialogue path.

If you only partially shut the city, you might have to do it a long time. But if you shut the city down 100%, the movement might win in a few short weeks. But the risk is those tanks in Shenzen might roll.

The dialogue path is, is Beijing even talking? It is not even at the table. Beijing big, Hong Kong tiny. That is the Beijing thinking. You already have Carrie Lam. That is what they say.

Creating a credible threat to independence might be the only way to get Beijing to budge. That is one thing Beijing does care about. On the other hand, if you can not build that credible threat, you perhaps should be willing to compromise.

Carrie Lam was basically appointed by Beijing. That makes an administrator. I hear a few years ago Beijing offered an arrangement whereby it would offer two candidates and Hong Kongers will get to pick one through direct vote. I wish that is how they elected the president of China every five years. The CCP offered two candidates to the billion-plus Chinese.

A compromise position between what Beijing was willing to give a few years ago and what Hong Kong wants today might be, okay, so Beijing gets to offer two candidates, but Hong Kong will also offer two candidates. There would at first be a primary. And the top two vote-getters will go into the final round. And the four candidates would contest.

Even that Beijing might not go for. But the beauty of being in constant dialogue mode is you force them to take positions. Dialogue is not just sitting across the table, or Xi Jinping giving one of you a call. Dialogue is already happening. Beijing has been issuing statement after statement. The movement has not been responding.

That is a political slam dunk for Beijing.

For example, when Joshua Wong showed up in Berlin, Beijing said, the west can not solve its own problems, how is it going to solve your problems? What did Joshua Wong say in response? Crickets.



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Tuesday, September 17, 2019

Trying To Understand Hong Kong And China

While I have been trying to understand Hong Kong and China, this blog post of mine has been of great help: Racism. The history and persistence of racism in the United States should help us understand mindsets elsewhere that we might find exotic and offensive.

I can not talk of Hong Kong, without also talking of Kashmir.

I would like to talk of China, but also of Andrew Yang and Bernie Sanders, and all the race and class bias the two face. Looks like Bernie also faces what can only be called the Great Wall Of Capital.



To be clear, I don't believe the status quo is okay, in Hong Kong or Beijing. But where is the status quo okay?

Hong Kong, like every city out there, is sexist. The female protesters experience it on both sides. And so I have at times wondered if this whole movement is not some sexist rebellion against a female Chief Executive. Of course, that is rhetorical. The ball is clearly in Beijing's court. Carrie Lam has not much wiggle room.

Hong Kong, I believe, is taking the lead, not just for Hong Kong, but also for mainland China, not just for mailand China, but also for the 100 biggest cities in the world.


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Sunday, September 15, 2019

Xi Jinping Should Act

Xi Jinping, the president of China, will act, or he will find himself in the dustbins of history.

He is the only person who can act. It's not Carrie Lam. It is not the Chinese Politburo. It is Xi.

For as long as Xi does not act, he is an emperor who is walking naked.

Xi should accept the five demands in Hong Kong. And Xi should pledge political reform for all of China.

Xi Jinping does not have unlimited time. It is best he acts before October 1. Or he and his party might already be in the dustbins of history by the New Year.

Xi calls Deng Xiaoping's reforms the second revolution. China has done remarkable work over the past four decades digging millions out of poverty. Hundreds of millions. Xi should launch the third revolution. The third revolution has to be about political reforms.

Political reforms in China need not be about copying the political system in the United States. There is plenty of dissatisfaction in the United States. Money is too decisive a force in the US. People first run in the money primary. Voters don't really have much of a choice. That is why an overwhelming majority in the US can want universal health care and not get it.

Capitalism is in crisis. The wealth inequality is unsustainable and getting wider.

Face it. Communism is in crisis. It was never meant to be anti-people. It was never meant to be undemocratic.

Xi could grant universal suffrage for Hong Kong, but install the kind of campaign finance reform that progressives in the US only dream about. Xi could shape this tide. Or he could sit on his hands and wait until he is washed away. He could be washed away in a few short months.

Accept the five demands for Hong Kong now, and give a major speech on October 1 in Beijing to launch political reforms for all of China.

Inaction is not an option.



If I were to write a speech for Xi, it would look like this.

October 1, Beijing:

Two weeks ago, I convened a meeting of the politburo, and we decided to accept the five demands of the Hong Kong street protests. These idealistic young people in Hong Kong are full of energy and enthusiasm. They stand to rejuvenate not only Hong Kong but China at large.

There was a real danger things might go out of hand. We have managed to avoid that. We are here to celebrate the 70th anniversary of the founding of this republic. And people across China, people in Hong Kong, young and old, are cheering.

In accepting the five demands, we have not imported a political system from anywhere. China does not believe in political exports and imports. It is for each country to decide its own political system. When Hong Kong rejoined China in 1997, we agreed to one country, two systems. Foreign Direct Investment that has been indispensable to our economic growth has come by way of Hong Kong in large measure. And the Chinese mainland is thankful.

Us accepting the five demands has been us respecting the political evolution of Hong Kong. The political arrangement that worked for them was no longer enough. It was time for something new.

For over a year now, the US and China have slapped tariffs on each other's exports. There is no winning side. Our economy has slowed down. Their economy has slowed down. I call on the G20 to launch a new round of reforms for the World Trade Organization. Some structural reforms that the US seeks in the Chinese economy are similar to some reforms we have sought for our own economy for years. Those reforms are necessary if we are to see the best allocation of our large but limited financial resources. If we are to avoid the middle-income trap, we must reform. If we are to see the next stage of economic growth, we must reform. If we are to move from a large manufacturing base to a high tech economy, we must reform.

Reform is not easy. It is like pulling teeth. There is pain. But reform is necessary. We have to take the necessary steps.

The founding of the republic in Mao's leadership was our first revolution. Economic reforms launched by Deng Xiaoping were our second revolution. Instead of saying capital has no place, we changed tack and started saying capital does have some place, a major place actually. And it has worked. Is there any country in the history of the world that has lifted more people out of poverty than China?

It will soon be time for our third revolution. On this 70th anniversary of the founding of our republic, I invite citizens across China, and members of this party to start a conversation. If we were to usher political reforms, what would they look like? We will hold this conversation for a few years and then start making changes as necessary.

We must be vigilant, though. We can not simply copy what is already not working in some other countries. We Marxists take the scientific approach. We collect data. We study and analyze. We experiment. We debate and discuss. And I believe Hong Kong has showed the way. Deng started in Guangdong what was unthinkable in China only a few decades before that. Hong Kong is the Guandong for political reforms. We will see how things play out in Hong Kong for a few years. We will then take some of the political reforms to the Hong Kong Bay Area at-large, and then eventually to the rest of China.

I am open to the idea of a directly elected president for China. But I am not open to the idea of a handful of rich people buying out political leaders. We must make sure power stays with the people. Capital does not get to hijack power.

Let the conversation begin.



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The Asymmetry Between Beijing And Hong Kong Is On Hong Kong's Side

Beijing is over a billion people. Hong Kong is not even 10 million. Beijing has an army that could challenge the United States. The Hong Kong protestors only have gas masks and mobile phones. Beijing has unlimited billions it could put towards propaganda efforts and policing inside China. And it does spend a lot on policing and censoring. But still this is a no win situation for Beijing. It is like Beijing is IBM in 1979, and Hong Kong is Apple, or Beijing is Microsoft in 1999 and Hong Kong is Google. It is like Beijing is the PC and Hong Kong is the smartphone. Hong Kong taunts, and Beijing can only issue empty threats.

Beijing tried to imitate Hong Kong. It thought it created Shanghai. They got the hardware right: the roads, the bridges, the skyscrapers, the city lights at night time. But the software is missing. Shanghai is like an iPhone without Google Maps. For Shanghai to become Hong Kong, you need free speech, you need cultural diversity, you need rule of law, not rule of communist party, you need universal suffrage.

China depends on Hong Kong for funds. FDI enters China through Hong Kong. Hong Kong has the upper hand.

IBM did come around to making the PC. Microsoft did try to catch up with Bing. Apple simply let Google Maps to come rule the iPhone. Beijing has no choice but to let Hong Kong lead the way for all of China on political reforms. Or the dam will simply break. The dam could break before the New Year.

Hong Kong protestors should do their best to (1) not engage in damage of property and (2) not engage in violence. That kind of internal discipline will send a strong message to the world. Then the slightest acts of violence by the Hong Kong police will be major blows to Beijing. This is about claiming moral authority. It is powerful. Hong Kong keeps the upper hand that way.

2019 in Asia does not have to be like 1989 in Russia. Beijing should make the smart choice and bend. Agree to the five demands and keep one country, two systems intact. Before it is too late.



February 2019: Workers' Activism Rises as China's Economy Slows. Xi Aims ...
China: Strikes and protest numbers jump 20%
Why protests are so common in China - Masses of incidents




The new battle in Hong Kong isn’t on the streets; it’s in the apps Activists are using Airdrop, livestreams, and innovative maps to keep their protest alive. But the authorities have plenty of tech of their own. ............. Hong Kong is famous for its souk-like electronics malls, and it’s blanketed with high-speed internet. So when protests broke out in June over plans to implement a controversial extradition law—which would see Hong Kongers accused of crimes turned over to mainland China’s notoriously opaque justice system—it was natural that many people turned to online services for more information and guidance............. Everything from supplies of food and water to press conferences are put together in the chat app Telegram ......... LIHKG, a Reddit-like forum that is limited to local ISPs, provides a sandbox of ideas where a network of anonymous citizens can exchange memes, protest schedules, and tactics. Online polls often dictate the location of the next traffic-disrupting flash mob. .......... a small army of journalists and activists have been live-streaming everything from major marches to minor spats with police. The raw videos tap into local media habits—

many people leave live streams playing in the background while they cook dinner or hang out with friends—and help create a sense of solidarity and belonging, even among those who are not on the streets themselves

............ Supply chain: Thanks to messages on Telegram and information sent via AirDrop, protesters are able to get supplies to the front lines through chaotic scenes. ........ “We disregard quality and framing, but we’re in the middle of the protesters and even the police, and people get really immersed in the scene,” she says. “The audience doesn’t want well-packaged shots—they want to feel what it’s like to be on the ground, in the most dangerous situation.” ........

“A lot of people have told me it was like a VR experience of getting beaten.”

.......... (“No one knew where the police were or how they could get to an escape route,” he told me. “So our team began planning to map out the next big rally the following week.”)......... Now Orca and his team publish dozens of maps during large demonstrations, updating positions with colors to show the location of police, “thugs,” and protesters, plus icons to signify first aid, rest, and supply stations. All of this is put together by on-the-ground volunteers who draw the information out on a blank map on their iPads, and send it to an “integrator” who compares the data with news from live streams and television stations before putting it all together and sending it out over Telegram or Apple’s AirDrop file transfer service. During one rally, an estimated 600,000 people downloaded maps put out by Orca’s team, just one of three mapping services created during the protests. ........... Then, three weeks after she watched the train station attack, Alice decided her contributions needed to become more direct. During one of the most violent weekends so far, she joined the crowd, carrying a rucksack filled with supplies: bandages, water, snacks, and filters for gas masks. When she saw a call on Telegram, she rushed forward toward police lines for the first time, opened her bag to those in need, and quickly retreated, checking Orca’s maps to avoid running into police......... She was dressed in what has become the uniform among demonstrators: black from head to toe, her face obscured by a black surgical mask and a black baseball cap.............

"This moment is our last chance to fight for Hong Kong, or the next generation won’t even know what privacy is."

........... “In the past few months people have educated themselves incredibly quickly on end-to-end encryption, only buying single-use transit cards, and the dangers of widespread surveillance” ......... many types of data Hong Kong’s telecommunications companies do not consider to be personal and protected, including a user’s geolocation and IP addresses, as well as the information on websites visited. This interpretation, which was made privately by the companies themselves and has not been challenged in court, means that police do not need a warrant to request, say, a list of subscribers who were in a certain place at a certain time........... Information collected by Hong Kong authorities could also be handed over to China, Tsui added, since there is no formal agreement defining what can and cannot be shared............. Alice does not even know the real names of several friends she’s made at the protests. When they message on Telegram, they use their aliases—all English pseudonyms. Even though they are anonymous, anyone who is arrested is cut out of the group for fear that police could compromise their phones............. With no end in sight, Lam has considered invoking emergency powers, according to local media. One of her first targets would likely be the apps that protesters use to organize. The mere suggestion was so divisive that members of Lam’s cabinet warned her against the move, and the Hong Kong Internet Service Providers Association declared that “any such restrictions, however slight originally, would start the end of the open Internet of Hong Kong.”..........

The Chinese government’s concern is that the internet is also the most likely way the Hong Kong protests could spread to the rest of the country.

........ After Lam’s announcement that she would withdraw the extradition bill, posts on Chinese social media wondered why those elsewhere in China face jail time for even a hint of dissent. ......... amid attempts by the Chinese government to deter protesters by releasing viral clips on Twitter threatening a military crackdown, there is little sign Hong Kongers are cowed. Alice feels that their collective efforts are leveling the playing field between the government and demonstrators. ......... “The government uses an old playbook, but we have created whole new ways of resisting. And if we didn’t stand up and [we] let Hong Kong become just another Chinese city, all that creativity would be snuffed out.”

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Saturday, September 14, 2019

The Two Wangs

In the past two days, I have become very impressed with the two Wangs that I have discovered. One is a member of the CCP Politburo, among the seven most prominent Chinese communists in Beijing. He used to be Chief of Guangdong, which is adjacent to Hong Kong. Xi should listen to Wang. Wang had a Hong Kong problem in a village back in the days. He solved it by holding local elections. I first learned of him today.



Another Wang writes for the South China Morning Post that I only discovered a few months ago while reading up on the trade war. It has become one of my favorite newspapers. I like it better than the New York Times. The NYT only lets you read 10 articles a month. The SCMP does not have any such limitations. I have not found another publication with better coverage of China.


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Lunch at home.

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Hong Kong: Antennae Problem?



Hong Kong’s extradition law mess: don’t blame Beijing, blame naive Carrie Lam In underestimating the pushback from Hongkongers from all walks of life, the chief executive has shown a lack of political antennae ..... She could have avoided much of this quagmire had her government not bypassed proper procedures and, instead, consulted the public ...... Blaming “foreign forces” for causing havoc in Hong Kong has always been the official mainland media’s default position but the Hong Kong government’s current crisis is largely of its own making. ....... no matter how the crisis ends, no one is a winner and Hong Kong as a whole loses – its reputation, the independence of its judiciary and the confidence of the international community in its status as a leading financial centre. ....... There has been intense speculation in Hong Kong and elsewhere that Lam pushed for the law at the request of Beijing. She herself strongly denied this and said she had not received any instruction from Beijing and the bill was not initiated by the central government. ....... This is probably true. .......... would also make it much easier for the central government to hunt down and extradite businessmen and corrupt officials who often hole up in Hong Kong after they fall foul of the mainland authorities......... the extraordinary pushback from Hong Kong people from all walks of life, particularly from the usually docile but powerful business community in the city, over their

deeply held fears and concerns about the lack of rule of law on the mainland.

..... Trained as a career civil servant, Lam, along with senior officials in her cabinet, seems to lack political sophistication and acute political antennae. ....... In the name of urgency, the government bypassed the proper procedures and process and failed to allow public consultation over the proposed law. In contrast, some cynics pointed out that in April, the government launched a three-month consultation on how to better protect animals and ensure owners will have their dogs and cats fed, cared for and given adequate medical attention....... With Taiwan’s presidential election cycle already heating up, both the ruling Democratic Progressive Party and a potential opposition candidate – the electronics tycoon Terry Gou – have both used Hong Kong’s mass protests as proof that the mainland’s “one country, two systems” formula has failed. ....... Beijing has expressed full support for Lam’s efforts and so long as the pro-government legislators, who command a majority in the local legislature, stay united, the bill has a high chance of passing.



Xi Jinping’s speech shows China’s Communist Party is still haunted by the fall of the Soviet Union Xi’s warning of the long struggle ahead between socialism and capitalism is being circulated as the People’s Republic reaches its 70th anniversary – a mark the USSR never reached ....... Chinese leaders’ speeches to their inner circles, particularly those on sensitive issues, are always guarded with the utmost secrecy. ....... Citing Karl Marx and Friedrich Engels, Xi said socialism would triumph over capitalism but cited Deng Xiaoping as saying that it would be a long historical process, which would probably take

several dozens of generations

...... He warned that the collapse of the Soviet Union served as a painful lesson for the party. ..... he floated a new narrative to bolster the legitimacy of the party by arguing that one could not use the period following reform and opening up to negate the period before it, nor vice versa. ....... he recognised that Western developed countries would maintain long-term economic, technological, and military advantages and China must be fully prepared for the two systems – socialism in its primary stage and a more advanced capitalism – to cooperate and struggle for a long time to come. ........ As China must learn and borrow from capitalism, it must face the reality that people would compare the strong points of Western developed countries with the shortcomings of China’s socialist development and be critical, Xi said...... Xi’s speech was previously circulated only among party officials with county level ranking and above....... its leaders are still smarting from the collapse of the then 69-year-old Soviet Union in 1991.



China’s media companies are failing at home, failing abroad and failing Xi Jinping China is spending billions in an effort to tell its stories to the world ........ The explosion, which occurred shortly before 3pm on March 21, initially killed 62 people and injured 640 others, but failed to make it to the front page of the People’s Daily the very next day – or any other page for that matter, the last time I checked. The death toll now stands at 78 and is expected to rise. ...... At a time when the official media is at full throttle in worshipping Xi, any news about the president takes pride of place on the front page while any other item, no matter how newsworthy, must give way......... on March 22, Xi, in an answer to a question from Roberto Fico, president of the Italian Chamber of Deputies, about his feelings as the Chinese president, said that he would be selfless and determined to devote himself to serving the Chinese people. .......

the inherent nature of China’s propaganda machine determines that its primary target audience is the Chinese leaders and officials at various levels of the government

– not least because they control the budgets and careers of Chinese state media workers. So long as officials are happy with the coverage, the job is done........ Chinese propaganda officials, who are not accountable to their own media, have little idea of how to engage overseas journalists and respond tactfully to their criticisms. Previously, when their campaign to shape China’s image was largely defensive, they simply ignored criticisms or seethed with anger behind closed doors. ....... Now as the Chinese leadership makes no bones about its ambitions for world leadership, propaganda officials are more forthright about criticism in the overseas media but in a much less tactful way ....... either out of ignorance or arrogance, they thought they knew what the foreign audience wanted to hear and read about China, but in fact they did not. So their products are often found wanting, reeking of nothing but propaganda...... in the parlance of cynical journalists at the state media, they often liken their filing of stories to “sending things into the sky” – showing they have done their job.



Chinese must live with a dead Baidu, as Google’s return looks doomed

China’s sophisticated internet censorship regime has blocked numerous overseas websites, including the South China Morning Post

, and search engines and social media platforms including Google, Twitter and YouTube........ there is a widespread perception that the Great Firewall could be one of the few red lines on which China is unlikely to budge....... China’s digital barriers are facing increasing pressure from within as Chinese businesses, academics, and intellectuals have been increasingly vocal about the negative impact of the Great Firewall on the country’s economy, academic research, technological innovation, and its competitiveness in attracting overseas companies and talents.......

Baidu, long a source of bitter complaints and frustration among Chinese internet users for its poor quality search results

and questionable advertising practices, was the target of renewed public anger in January......... Google’s exit from China in 2010, triggered by China’s increasing online censorship, has further cemented Baidu’s lead. Before its exit, Google commanded about 30 per cent of China’s market share, trailing Baidu but providing healthy competition and a far better alternative for Chinese internet users seeking high quality search results........

as Baidu’s quality of service has declined rapidly over the past few years, the public clamour for Google’s return has become louder.

....... China’s academics and businessmen alike have argued the country’s severe restrictions on cross-border data flows – including slow cross-border internet speed and the inability to access global online tools like Google – have damaged China’s competitiveness and innovation. ..... Back in March 2017,

Luo Fuhe

, a prominent academic and a vice-chairman of the Chinese People’s Political Consultative Conference, the country’s top consultative body, caused quite a stir by publicly releasing a proposal urging the Chinese government to ease internet restrictions to enable faster access to overseas news and academic websites and search engines.........

Anyone who has tried to search for English-language information on Baidu should know how lousy its service is.

........ AmCham China, which represents American businesses in the country, said more than 90 per cent of respondents felt slow cross-border internet speeds and the blocking of online resources harmed their competitiveness as well as their operations. ........ the US media suggesting that Google was planning a return to China and had been working on a censored version of its search engine, code-named Dragonfly..... even a filtered version of Google would be much better than Baidu.

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Friday, September 13, 2019

Navigating The Hong Kong Protests

Xi Jinping made a rather dramatic reference to the Long March of the Mao era at one point during the trade war back and forth. Recently he has made inferences to the Cultural Revolution. Maybe he is as backward looking as Donald Trump.

When Karl Marx wrote what he wrote, capital had too much sway, labor was powerless. But that was a long time ago. After 1989 China tried to give capital more room at the table, instead of no room at the table. That led to the largest reduction of poverty in world history.

But the CCP has been miserly on political reforms. If they were to take a scientific approach to what is happening in Hong Kong, they have a wonderful opportunity to preserve one country, two systems, and to usher a new era of political reforms inside China.

That half the Hong Kong legislature in Hong Kong is unelected capitalists, why is that not a problem for the Beijing communists?

Xinhua warns 'end is coming' for Hong Kong protesters China issued a stern warning to Hong Kong protesters as well as the West on Sunday, reiterating that it will not tolerate any attempt to undermine Chinese sovereignty over the city.

China does not understand Hong Kong's leaderless movement On August 30, key pro-democracy activists in Hong Kong, including Joshua Wong and three lawmakers from the opposition camp, were arrested. After months of protests both peaceful and violent against a proposed extradition bill and police brutality, the Hong Kong government, instead of making concrete concessions, has decided to step up repression. Protesters responded with more determined action.

Xi brings in 'firefighter' Wang Qishan in bid to calm Hong Kong China's Vice President Wang Qishan, a close aide to President Xi Jinping and the former enforcer of the president's anti-corruption campaign, is believed to have played a key role in the recent developments in Hong Kong.

Trump on thinner political ice than Xi in trade war Domestic politics, however, make the U.S. president's position a lot dicier than it looks. ..... The opening salvos had come in July 2018, when Trump imposed 25% additional tariffs on $34 billion worth of Chinese imports, including industrial machinery, out of the roughly $550 billion worth of products the U.S. buys from China every year. Washington launched a second barrage the following month, targeting another $16 billion worth of imports, and escalated its attacks that September by adding $200 billion in goods to the list......... The latest and fourth batch of U.S. tariffs increased the total by $110 billion to $360 billion....... And despite rampant speculation that Xi was facing growing criticism within the Communist Party, the party's secretive annual summer meeting in the seaside resort of Beidaihe offered no signs that the president was in a political bind....... Only two incumbent U.S. presidents have failed to be reelected since the end of World War II -- Jimmy Carter and George H.W. Bush -- and an economic downturn was a major reason in both cases......... If the economy starts to seriously suffer, with little leeway for major monetary expansion, Trump's reelection chances could come down to achieving a truce in the trade war....... Rushing to compromise would also pose risks, though, with the U.S. Congress as a whole now adopting a tough posture on China....... his penchant for surprises should not be underestimated. Frustrated with Beijing's stalling tactics, he might expand the battle from trade to currency and the financial markets. ...... In that case, Trump would head into the presidential race with his hard-line China policy intact, while pinning blame for the sputtering economy on the Fed and Beijing........ If Beijing moves to crack down on the demonstrators, using force like it did in response to the Tiananmen Square protests in 1989, China could be hit with international sanctions that would squeeze its economy hard....... That would turn what was a bilateral trade dispute into an all-out cold war between the two largest economic powers, with potentially devastating consequences for the global economy.

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Hong Kong 2019: This Is 1989 For Asia

And the best route is not the route that was taken in Russia in 1989. The collapse was spectacular, true. That was good news for the victor. But that saw a decade of economic contraction for Russia, and falling living standards. There was half baked democracy. The mafia swooped in. There are people who argue Russia is not even a democracy.

That is why my first choice is one country, two systems. But it does require that Beijing makes peace with full-fledged democracy in Hong Kong. If not, two countries, one system, democracy, might become the new slogan.

The US political system is bubbling with complaints about how things are. Money is too influential in American politics. Maybe Hong Kong does not want a copycat system. In fact, Hong Kong seems to have a bigger money in politics problem. The Hong Kong billionaires put the Koch brothers to shame.

And that is why I think the Hong Kong protestors need to become politically organized and engage in intelligent debates and discussions on the kind of political system they might want. Maybe they can build something new. Maybe they can build something that progressives in America dream about.

Freedom has to ring. But the call for freedom can not be naive. This ongoing protest movement in Hong Kong should seek inspiration from Eastern Europe in 1989, true. But it also should learn. The post-1989 transition in Russia could have been handled much, much better.

Voices inside the Chinese Communist Party that might have democratic aspirations need to rise. They need to make a case that the one country, two systems that was promised to Hong Kong must be delivered. That 2047 is not when Hong Kong becomes like China, but that is when China becomes like Hong Kong, if not earlier.

Boris Yeltsin was a member of the communist party in Russia. Who are the Boris Yeltsins of China?

Let Boris be an inspiration. But let him also be a warning. He messed up the transition big time.

Xi Jinping having declared himself president for life might have been the moment when the Chinese Communist Party signed its death warrant. The 10-year term that was in place was perhaps a better arrangement. Now the Chinese have a system where you can not challenge that one guy. This system will break, but it will not bend. Looks like it will break.

I know so little about internal Chinese politics, I don't seem to know the name of any other politician besides Xi. Okay, there is that Vice President guy who leads the trade talks. And the Foreign Minister. But other than that, I don't seem to have names and faces. Who are these people?










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Wednesday, September 04, 2019

Hong Kong Problem: Unholy Alliance Of Capitalists And Communists



I don't know the details. So forgive if I get something wrong. I will stand corrected. But it is my understanding that something like half the Hong Kong legislature is not directly elected by Hong Kong citizens. These are business people, rich people, tycoons, industrialists, billionaires, real estate moguls, who enter the legislature through some kind of a back door that they negotiated in 1997 when Britain left. And these unelected people are the most reliable supporters of Beijing in Hong Kong. Go figure. It is like, there is a patch of no man's land somewhere in Latin America where Islamist terrorists and white nationalist terrorists both go to get trained.

And Carrie Lam is obviously not elected by the people of Hong Kong or she would have accepted the demands on day one. She is appointed by Beijing. That is ridiculous. That is not my idea of one country, two systems.

All members of the Hong Kong legislature need to be directly elected by Hong Kong citizens. The Chief Executive of Hong Kong needs to be directly elected by Hong Kong citizens. That would be an affirmation of one country, two systems.

2047 is a deadline. That is when all of China becomes like Hong Kong. Hong Kong does not become like China.


Carrie Lam, What Took You So Long?
Hong Kong And Beijing: The Water Will Break The Dam
Hong Kong Chief Executive Can't Choose To Quit
Steve Bannon, Hong Kong, 1989, And The CCP
Hong Kong Protests: The World Should Not Watch A Possible Massacre
Why Hong Kong Needs A Directly Elected Chief Executive
The Hong Kong Protest Lacks Political Sophistication
Hong Kong: The Shenzen Angle
Could Andrew Yang Become President?

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