Showing posts with label india 2019. Show all posts
Showing posts with label india 2019. Show all posts

Saturday, May 11, 2019

My Projection Puts Modi At 300-350

My projection puts the Modi-led NDA at 300-350. And if he gets another five years, he will be unbeatable in 2024. The Indian economy is projected to have become larger than the US economy by 2030, adjusted for purchasing power parity. I can imagine Modi being Prime Minister in 2030 when that happens.

Modi has clearly spoken against hate crimes. And there are laws in India against hate crimes. Those laws have to be actively enforced.






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Modi And Rahul

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Friday, May 10, 2019

Could Arithmetic Force Modi And Rahul To Team Up?

What the final tally will be is anybody's guess right now, but let's say this is how it rolls: "...the post-poll scenario will be dictated by regional parties that will climb back to the pre-2014 situation with 223-225 seats.......my estimate is that BJP’s tally will be around 170-180, down from 282 in 2014 and Congress’ may rise to 140-150, which will be phenomenal from 44 in 2014 ..... "

 BJP and allies: 170-180
Congress and allies: 140-150.
Federal Front: 200-220

Most people might suggest this means the Federal Front will get the Prime Minister with outside support from the Congress. But then no regional party might get more than 30 MPs.

Another option would be for the BJP and the Congress to come together with Modi as Prime Minister and Rahul Gandhi as Deputy Prime Minister. That might be a more stable government. In a democracy, you respect the people's verdict. Modi has made remarkable progress on issues like ease of doing business and infrastructure, whereas Rahul Gandhi has come up with the wonderful idea of a Universal Basic Income for the bottom 20% of the people. Country above party, as both like to say.




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India 2019: The Scenario Of A Federal Front Lead



Fasten your seat belts on D-Street: Major horse trading ahead post May 23 As per my assessment, the post-poll scenario will be dictated by regional parties. ...... the post-poll scenario will be dictated by regional parties that will climb back to the pre-2014 situation with 223-225 seats. Regional parties belonging to the NDA will likely see a downdraft from 54 to 25-30 seats along with the declining vote and seat share of the BJP. ...... my estimate is that BJP’s tally will be around 170-180, down from 282 in 2014 and Congress’ may rise to 140-150, which will be phenomenal from 44 in 2014. At these levels, the Congress could be back to its 2004 tally of 145 when UPA-1 government came to power after overturning the ‘India Shining’ narrative of the Vajpayee-led NDA government. Hence, the NDA score could be around 210 seats, down from 336 in 2014 ....... a sub-200 tally for the BJP is a realistic projection, in my view, and this will restrict the NDA tally to around 200-220.
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Thursday, May 09, 2019

Modi Expecting A Larger Victory Than 2014



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Wednesday, May 08, 2019

India 2019: The Suspense

If the BJP-led alliance is at 250 or above, it might be able to still cobble together a majority by pulling in a few parties. But if the tally is closer to 200, that opens up the distinct possibility of the emergence of a new Prime Minister. As to who that new face will be is not at all clear.

The total number of seats is 545. That puts the halfway mark at 273. There are three camps: the BJP-led alliance, the Congress-led alliance, and the unaffiliated, sometimes known as the Federal Front. It is possible the unaffiliated could emerge as the second largest block after the Congress-led alliance and seek the outside support of the Congress-led alliance. As in, the BJP-led alliance could emerge the largest but not the majority block and still have to sit out.

Or Modi could easily hit 300. It is hard to tell.

NDA: 250-300, UPA: 80-120, FF: 160-200. If the Federal Front crosses 200, it might as well claim the top job.

On election results, it is best to keep an open mind One of the great charms of Indian democracy is the power of the silent voters ....... When the counting began for the 2014 election, there was very little expectation that some four hours later India would be witnessing a clear Narendra Modi victory, an event that was subsequently to be described as a ‘wave’. As Prannoy Roy has written in a recent book, even the outcome of the tsunami election of 1984 was largely unanticipated by the pundits........ the larger suspense will persist till the morning of May 23. ....... particularly true of rural women whose voting preferences are often not robustly factored in....... In the Delhi assembly election of 2013, the Aam Aadmi Party made its electoral debut. Its campaign was enthusiastic but not very organized. That was evident on polling day when the AAP’s patchy presence contrasted with the organized approach of both the Congress and the BJP. Yet, AAP performed spectacularly and came within a whisker of upstaging the BJP as the single largest party.......... Modi’s meetings in West Bengal for example have been hugely attended. The numbers attending are also far in excess of what the BJP’s weak organizational apparatus in the state can mobilize. Indeed, the success of these meetings has forced the West Bengal chief minister to organize many more public meetings than she originally planned. In places where the crowds have not matched her expectations, she has followed the meetings with a padayatra....... the raw human emotion of an election is never captured by surveys and exit polls. This is why it is best to approach the morning of May 23 with an open mind.

BJP banks on Bengal Ground reports from three rounds of polling indicate that the party could lose a chunk of the seats it had won in 2014 ...... “We could lose around 50 seats we had won in 2014 in states like Uttar Pradesh, Rajasthan, Madhya Pradesh, Chhattisgarh, Maharashtra, Bihar and Jharkhand. However, we are confident of springing a surprise in Bengal, Odisha and also in the Northeast to an extent to offset the losses,” one of the BJP leaders monitoring the party’s election war room in Delhi said...... “We are banking heavily on Bengal and Odisha. If we falter in these states, our tally will come down substantially,” another BJP leader said. “It would be very difficult for us to come close to the majority mark if the showing is not good in Bengal and Odisha,” the leader added....... “Our feedback shows there is a high chance of us winning between 10-15 seats in Bengal and anything between 5-10 seats in Odisha,” a BJP leader said....... The most serious losses are being feared in Uttar Pradesh, owing to the formidable BSP-SP-RLD alliance. ....The BJP has received reports of losses in Maharashtra owing to acute agrarian distress and the Congress-NCP alliance.

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Tuesday, May 07, 2019

India 2019: Some Projections

Scenario 1: The BJP led alliance falls short of the halfway mark and quickly pulls in a few regional parties to form a majority. This was the talk of the town yesterday.

Scenario 2: The BJP improves on its tally from 2014. This might not be likely.

Scenario 3: The BJP does less well than in 2014 but still manages to cross the majority mark and forms another government for five years.

Scenario 4: The arithmetic is tri-polar: the BJP led alliance, the Congress-led alliance which is much smaller, and the non-BJP, non-Congress Federal Front alliance which asks the Congress for outside support to form a government.

Right now scenario one seems to be in the air. People are talking about it. But nobody knows for sure.

Somebody like the Orissa chief minister Patnayak might be willing to support the BJP led alliance in the case the need arises.




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Monday, May 06, 2019

The Indian Election: Hard To Predict













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Monday, April 29, 2019

Modi Interview In Varanasi



Speech In Mumbai

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Amit Shah: Master Strategist

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Friday, April 19, 2019

Modispeak





2014 was a mandate for hope and aspiration, 2019 is about confidence and acceleration: Narendra Modi
The first phase of polling and the people’s response have reinforced my confidence ....... I’m confident that we will be blessed by the people yet again with a massive mandate, with more seats than before. ........ In all the states that I’ve visited, I’m seeing unprecedented support. ....... Corruption weakens our country from within, I am challenging it. Dynasty politics weakens our democracy, I am challenging it. Terror threatens our nation’s very existence, I am challenging it. ‘Chalta Hai’ attitude held our nation’s progress hostage for a long time, I am challenging it. Forces of negativity try to obstruct an aspirational India from rising, I am challenging them. .......... There is such a mood against the Congress that, by their own admission, they are fighting on the lowest number of seats in a Lok Sabha election ever! ....... 2014 was a mandate for hope and aspiration, 2019 is about confidence and acceleration. 2014 was about some immediate needs the country had, 2019 is about what India wants! ......... UP is witnessing the double-engine growth phenomenon. Both the Centre and state governments have worked in tandem to transform lives. From investment to law and order to our work on Ganga, people have witnessed how a transformation is occurring in UP. ........ SP has repeatedly accused BSP of loot and corruption. BSP has repeatedly accused SP of goondaism and bad governance. I say that both are right about each other. ........ UP will vote for vision and not division. UP will vote for opportunities and not opportunism. UP will vote for development and not dynasty. UP will vote for those who put India First, not those who put Family First. ...... You can check any speech of mine. A large portion of it is dedicated to issues of development. However, it never makes headlines. ......... Deshbhakti is not a disease. Just as hyper-secularism was invented to strike at the root of India’s culture and ethos, similarly the terminology of hyper nationalism has been invented to portray deshbhakti in poor light. ...... because their sole focus is on attacking me, Modi has become a big issue. So, in a way, credit (for that) goes to the opposition. ...... India’s ranking on ease of doing business has risen dramatically, from 142 in 2014 to 77 now. And landmark reforms such as Insolvency and Bankruptcy Code (IBC) and GST have improved tax compliance. ........ Our motto, as I have said earlier, is to remove red tape and replace it with red carpet. The dramatic rise in Ease of Doing Business Rankings is evidence of our vision being translated to action. ......... Direct benefit transfers have taken middlemen and leakages out of the equation and put benefits directly in the hands of the people. Over Rs 1 lakh crore of the nation’s money has been saved from falling into the wrong hands. Government e-marketplace has ensured a level playing field for all kinds of traders in servicing the government’s requirements. Procurement within the government is now transparent, it benefits MSMEs and saves money. The previous financial year saw a four-fold increase in total value of transactions on the portal and doubling of number of sellers in the marketplace. ...... Abolition of interviews for certain government jobs has ensured that avenues for corruption and nepotism are cut down while merit is respected. ..... Allocation of coal and spectrum both witnessed massive scams under the previous government. We auctioned those in a transparent manner and ensured immense gains for the nation. ....... Getting passports, which used to take months earlier, is done within a couple of days. IT refunds arrive within days. Self-attestation is the norm now. ....... I can say with confidence that we have succeeded in removing Congress culture from our system. When I talk about Congress culture I refer to policy paralysis, corruption, nepotism, presence of middlemen, departments working in silos, projects being delayed, etc........ For MSME sector, loans up to a crore are now given in 59 minutes to the common man. Congress culture was telephone banking where their friends only got loans. Environmental clearances were cash clearance tools for Congress. They took 600 days and even then things were not proper. The period for environmental clearance have now come down to 150-180 days. ......... Earlier this year, we witnessed the first-ever diesel-to-electric converted locomotive made in Varanasi. This is something that the whole world recognised with awe. Coaches for some of the world’s metro projects are being made in India. India’s first semi-high-speed train, ‘Vande Bharat Express’, is a result of Make In India. ....... India’s defence manufacturing sector has got a new lease of life with greater impetus on Make In India. Our armed forces, who were made to wait for years for bullet-proof jackets, finally procured the jackets. It was not from a foreign manufacturer, but from our own facility. Of the total contracts signed, more than half have been signed with Indian manufacturers for procurement of defence equipment for the armed forces. It includes helicopters, radar, ballistic helmets, artillery guns, ammunition. The assault rifles that the world uses will now be made in a factory set up in Amethi. Now, the Naamdar can actually read ‘Made in Amethi’ on AK-47s. Do you think it was possible if Make In India was not working? ......... Japanese companies, famous for their engineering capabilities, are now making cars in India and then exporting to their own country. ...... When we came to office in 2014, India was attracting around $35 billion FDI. That number has almost doubled in the last five years. ....... Do you know that after the 1991 reforms, when Manmohan Singh was the finance minister, GDP growth rate came down to around 2%? ..... our target is to make India a $5 trillion economy ...... Our target is to bring India within the top 50 in World Bank’s Ease of Doing Business rankings. We have a plan to invest Rs 100 lakh crore in infrastructure in the next five years. We will create new opportunities of employment by providing support to 22 major champion sectors identified as main drivers of the Indian economy. We will also harness entrepreneurship to act as a force multiplier for job creation. We will give a boost to MSMEs and traders through special measures. ........ There have been 26 Pragati sessions so far and about 230 projects to the tune of Rs 10 lakh crore have been attended to. Projects pending for 34 years have been cleared. ........ GST has been evolving towards lower taxes. Already, 99% of items for the common people are now taxed on an average at half the pre-GST tax rate. Tax rates came down on over 80 household goods and many daily-use items attract no tax at all. Burden of taxes will keep reducing with GST. This is because GST has brought in ease of compliance for all, given that it is an online platform-based system with greater transparency. This has boosted ease of doing business. ........ Exemptions from GST for small businesses have been doubled from Rs 20 lakh to Rs 40 lakh. Small businesses with a turnover up to Rs 1.5 crore have a composition scheme where they pay a flat rate and file only one annual return. ...... To ensure that farmers’ income growth does not suffer, we declared MSP hikes that fixed the MSP at a minimum of 1.5 times the cost. ....... During the five years from 2009-10 to 2013-14, under UPA, only around 7 lakh MT of pulses and oilseeds worth Rs 3,117 crore were procured at MSP. During 2014-15 to 2018-19, under NDA, 94 lakh MT of pulses and oilseeds worth Rs 44,142 crore were procured at MSP by the government. This is more than a ten-fold increase. ....... For agriculture and rural development, we have promised to spend Rs 25 lakh crore in the next five years.
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Thursday, March 21, 2019

Who Will Win India 2019?



A national election in the world's largest democracy is quite an event. It goes on for weeks for one. The campaign itself lasts only a few weeks. It is not a year-long lurch like in the US. But then, at some level, the campaign is never over. There is always a major election right around the corner somewhere in India. Only a few months back the Congress elbowed the BJP out of power in three major states. But then the Pakistan-India ruckus happened, and that was advantage BJP, politically speaking.

Polls are notoriously off in India. Poll numbers have missed the mark consistently over the last several elections. It might be because the majority of Indian voters are out of reach for pollsters. In the 2014 election, the BJP performed much better than any poll had forecast. It ended up with a comfortable majority. It was a replay of the Rajiv Gandhi victory for Congress in 1984.

What will happen this time? It is hard to tell. Has Modi delivered? Yes and no. The land reform and the labor market reform that might have upped job creation were both opposed and successfully, despite Modi throwing his weight behind them. Major work has been done on the infrastructure front. India has climbed up in the ease of doing business index. The jump is huge. Through his relentless travels, Modi has put India on the global map.

But then Atal Bihari Vajpayee lost in 2004. It looked like he might win.

Right now looks like the BJP led alliance, the NDA, will win, and Modi will come back as Prime Minister. But should that not happen do not expect Rahul Gandhi to become Prime Minister. The non-Congress, non-BJP parties will want someone like Mamata Banerjee or Chandrababu Naidu to take the lead. But Modi is still the most popular politician in India by a wide margin. He does not seem to have competition.


NDA to win majority with 283 seats in 2019 Lok Sabha Polls: Times Now-VMR survey
The BJP-led National Democratic Alliance is likely to come to power with a majority on its own, an opinion poll by Times Now-VMR completed after the Balakot air strikes has predicted. The survey predicted the NDA to get as much as 282 seats - 10 over the halfway mark - leaving the Congress-led United Progressive Alliance ( UPA) way behind with 136 seats. Other parties which include the SP-BSP-RLD and non aligned parties like the BJD, Telangana Rashtriya party and YSR Congress could end up with 136. The predicted tally for the NDA is 54 seats less than what it got in 2014.























Math Over Popularity In UP, Edge For Gathbandhan: Prannoy Roy's Analysis
the Mayawati-Akhilesh Yadav combo alone could bring down the NDA score in the state from 73 to 37, even if Prime Minister Narendra Modi's popularity is at the level of the 2014 national election....... The addition of Congress to the mix could have deducted another 14 seats from the NDA tally, reducing it to 23 seats, data shows.
Lok Sabha polls: Modi-BJP show all the way, no chance for Rahul Gandhi as PM, predicts satta bazaar
The satta bazaar predicts 55 seats for the BJP in Uttar Pradesh
The Man Who Predicted 2014 Indian Election Reveals Who Will Take The Throne In 2019
The last election was not about the party but the leader. Similarly, the 2019 election will also be about the leader. The seasoned people are talking about party politics while the youth is focused on the leader ..... the world will be ruled by four nationalist Narendra Modi, Donald Trump, Vladimir Putin, and Benjamin Netanyahu. ....... I am picking data from rural India. How many families have benefited from the cooking gas and electricity? How many have got access to toilets and how many kids are going to school now? When I study this I am getting a figure of fifty crore. Even in forty-fifty crore, being a conservative I divide it by two, it is twenty crore. You know in 2014, the elections were won by a small margin of 1.4 crore and here you have a larger swing. So my calculation says 2019 belongs to Modi.
Why India's Pollsters Will Have A Tough Time Predicting Election 2019 In the last three elections, opinion polls have been significantly off the mark.
in the last three elections, polls have been significantly off the mark. In 2004 and 2009 the victorious Congress alliance was completely underestimated, while in 2014 only Bajaj’s firm predicted the BJP would win an outright majority. ..... if two regional parties already in alliance joined forces with the main opposition Congress, the BJP would be wiped out in the state, almost certainly losing power nationally.
BJP will lose seats but win 2019 Lok Sabha polls, says survey August 21, 2018
According to the India Today’s Mood of the Nation (MOTN) July 2018 poll, the NDA will be back in power with 281 seats, nine seats ahead of the half-way mark in the 543-member Lok Sabha. However, but the BJP will lose its majority and slide down to 245 seats. The UPA will be far behind with 122 seats and the Congress will increase its tally to 83 seats. ..... The BJP, according to the poll, will come down from the 282 seats it had won in the 2014 Lok Sabha elections but will increase its vote share from 31.34 per cent to 36 per cent. ..... The Congress, on the other hand, will increase its seat tally from the 44 it won in 2014 to 83 seats, while its vote share will go up from 19.52 to 31 per cent...... The ‘Others’, who are basically fence-sitters, are predicted to get a whopping 140 seats with a 33 per cent of the vote share in the Lok Sabha. ...... Prime Minister Narendra Modi continues to be the favourite for the top job with 49 per cent of the respondents rooting for him while 27 per cent of the respondents favoured Congress President Rahul Gandhi for the post.
Prashant Kishor's PM Prediction for 2019 Polls Will Have BJP Cheering
Prashant Kishor said on Monday that Narendra Modi would return as the Prime Minister after Lok Sabha polls ..... A resident of Buxar district in the state, Kishor shot to fame in 2014 when he managed the poll campaign for Narendra Modi, then the prime ministerial candidate of the BJP, which went on to put up its best-ever electoral performance....... A year later, he collaborated with Kumar who returned to power for his third consecutive term after registering a handsome victory in the assembly polls...... Among NDA constituents, the JD(U) is the third largest after the BJP and the Shiv Sena.
2019 Elections in India: Modi Won't Have It Easy January 3, 2019
Contrary to the traditional political punditry that the 2019 elections would be a ritual to re-elect the incumbent Prime Minister Narendra Modi, the miraculous return of the opposition Indian National Congress (INC) under Rahul Gandhi in state elections has thrown a major spanner in Modi’s works. ...... The INC has thrashed the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) in the Hindi heartland states of Madhya Pradesh (114 of 230 seats), Rajasthan (99 of the 200 seats) and Chhattisgarh (68 of the 90 seats), which account for 65 seats in the Lok Sabha (Lower House of India’s bicameral parliament). In the 2014 general elections, the BJP had won 62 of these 65 seats. ........ When the BJP swept to power in 2014, winning 282 of the 543 seats, it became the first political party in thirty years to win an outright majority in India. ...... The regional and sub-national parties will the x-factor in India’s 2019 election. They would be the kingmakers who will be critical in determining who forms the next government.
Inside India's Colossal, Colorful, Tough-to-Predict Election
India’s elections have been notoriously difficult to predict because of the endless possibilities of coalitions. ...... In 2014, the Election Commission of India deployed 3.7 million polling staff, 550,000 security personnel, 56 helicopters and 570 special trains to conduct a five-week-long exercise in close to a million polling stations. ...... The commission sets up a polling booth for a lone voter in the Gir forest in western state of Gujarat, where lions roam. It also protected a polling station in Chhattisgarh by deploying a medical team to prevent a swarm of honeybees attacking voters....... now 430 million Indians own a smartphone, half a billion use the Internet, 300 million use Facebook, 200 million send messages on WhatsApp and 30 million are on Twitter. It means political parties and candidates will aggressively use new technology and social media to win the hearts and minds of young voters.
Why opinion poll predictions are drifting away from reality
View: Nobody knows anything about India's huge elections
The last elections, in 2014, threw up a result that had been unthinkable for three decades: a clear majority for one party, Prime Minister Narendra Modi’s Bharatiya Janata Party. While repeating that mandate isn’t impossible, it will be extremely difficult. The BJP doesn’t have much of a presence outside the north and west of India and, for its majority in 2014, it had to win almost all the seats in which it was competitive. In the end, Modi himself only won a little more than 30 per cent of the vote. ...... This time around, Modi faces a more difficult task. Memories of the Congress years have faded. And his own performance as prime minister has been, at best, underwhelming. Government officials may claim that India is growing faster now than it ever has, but few people believe that. What everyone knows is that jobs are hard to come by and that farmers in particular are suffering. ....... He has never stopped campaigning. In 2014, he was an exciting novelty; in 2019 he is an institution. His face is everywhere, on walls and in newspapers, above reminders of one government welfare program or another. He has a radio show, his government can count on support from tame television channels and, of course, he still has Twitter. ..... voters aren’t pleased with the state of the economy or with the BJP’s administrative skills. ..... Few outside Modi’s own circle believed that he would win a majority in 2014. In 1999, the BJP won fewer seats -- after a border skirmish with Pakistan -- than predicted. In 2004, the BJP government was unexpectedly voted out. And, in 2009, the Congress increase in seat strength startled pretty much every observer. ..... Nobody ever knows quite what the Indian electorate will produce on counting day.
Will BJP win Lok Sabha polls 2019? Here's what top pollsters predict
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