Trump’s Tariffs and the Coming Great Disruption

Trump’s Trade War
Peace For Taiwan Is Possible

Trump’s Trade War
Peace For Taiwan Is Possible

Trump’s Tariffs and the Coming Great Disruption

In the 1920s and 1930s, a wave of protectionism swept the globe. Countries raised tariffs against each other in a self-defeating spiral that deepened the Great Depression. Today, the world faces a very different landscape. While President Donald Trump’s trade policies echo that earlier era of economic nationalism, the global context has fundamentally changed. That’s both a reason for cautious optimism—and for serious concern.

Unlike the interwar period, today’s world is more economically integrated. The rise of regional trade blocs like the European Union, ASEAN, Mercosur, and the African Continental Free Trade Area creates strong counterweights to unilateral trade wars. Countries are more likely now to lower tariffs among themselves to offset the impact of US protectionism, preserving access to markets and supply chains. The global economy has matured, and many nations have learned from history.

Moreover, while the US is still a giant consumer market and the dollar remains the de facto global currency, America no longer holds the same unchallenged dominance. Other economies are better positioned to adapt, realign, and reforge new trade relationships that sidestep the US if necessary. In this environment, Trump’s return to tariffs is unlikely to trigger a Great Depression—but it could very well ignite a Great Disruption.

This disruption may not tank the global economy, but it could seriously damage the US’s long-term position. Tariffs imposed under Trump’s trade agenda are not supported by much mainstream economic theory. Protectionist policies tend to raise prices, hurt consumers, and disrupt global supply chains without delivering long-term competitive advantage. More often than not, they provoke retaliation.

The danger is not only economic but geopolitical. As the US retreats from global trade leadership, other powers—particularly China and the EU—are stepping in to fill the void, reshaping the global order in ways that may not favor American interests. Allies may grow weary of an unpredictable US trade policy and seek greater self-reliance or deeper regional ties.

Trump's tariffs might not collapse the global economy, but they could mark the beginning of the US’s gradual marginalization in a multipolar world economy. That’s not a Depression—but it’s still a major disruption. And whether the US comes out stronger on the other side is far from certain.

The Coming Storm: What Happens Now That Trump Has Slapped Tariffs on the Entire World
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WTO Minus One: Trump’s Tariff Chaos and America’s Self-Inflicted Decline
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Trump’s Trade War
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Trump’s Trade War
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7: Tariff Chaos

The Coming Storm: What Happens Now That Trump Has Slapped Tariffs on the Entire World

Trump’s Trade War

Trump’s Trade War
Peace For Taiwan Is Possible

Trump’s Trade War
Peace For Taiwan Is Possible

Trump’s Trade War

The Coming Storm: What Happens Now That Trump Has Slapped Tariffs on the Entire World

Former President Donald Trump has long teased a return to aggressive protectionist policies if reelected, including sweeping tariffs on imports from just about every country. While this might play well with a certain slice of the electorate looking for a simple answer to complex global challenges, the real-world effects would be and have been swift, far-reaching, and chaotic. Here's what we might now that Trump has followed through on his promise of universal tariffs.

1. Crashing Stock Markets

Global investors hate uncertainty—and nothing says “economic whiplash” like blanket tariffs. Overnight, companies reliant on global supply chains would see costs skyrocket, profit forecasts slashed, and investor confidence shaken. From Wall Street to emerging markets, a worldwide tariff war could ignite a massive selloff.

2. Dramatically Higher Prices on Everyday Goods

Tariffs are, at their core, taxes on imports. And guess who pays those taxes? Consumers. Everything from smartphones and TVs to sneakers, furniture, and even groceries could see double-digit price hikes. For a nation already weary of inflation, this could feel like throwing gasoline on the fire.

3. Voter Blowback

Trump has made reducing inflation a key part of his pitch for 2024. But imposing tariffs that result in 10%, 20%, or even 30% price hikes on household goods? That’s political suicide for any president banking on economic relief for the working class. Expect backlash not just from Democrats, but from independents and even parts of the Republican base.

4. Just Plain Chaos

With global supply chains already under strain post-COVID and amid rising geopolitical tensions, throwing tariffs into the mix could lead to widespread disruptions. Delays at ports, shortages of key items, confusion over pricing, and retaliatory tariffs from other countries would create a storm of unpredictability for both businesses and consumers.

5. Increased Likelihood of Conflict

History shows that economic distress and geopolitical tension often go hand in hand. When domestic crises worsen, leaders sometimes turn to foreign policy distractions. A Middle East war—or escalation in Ukraine, Taiwan, or the South China Sea—could serve as a political pressure valve. That’s not a guarantee, but it’s a disturbing possibility.

6. Retaliation from Global Partners

China, the EU, Mexico, Canada—none of these major trading partners would sit idly by. Retaliatory tariffs on American exports would hurt U.S. farmers, manufacturers, and small businesses, especially in red states that helped elect Trump in the first place. Think soybean tariffs, auto industry slowdowns, and collapsing export deals.

7. Undermining Dollar Dominance

Sweeping tariffs could accelerate the global shift away from dollar-based trade, especially if targeted countries begin forming new trade alliances that exclude the U.S. The long-term result? Erosion of America's financial hegemony, which has helped keep borrowing costs low and global influence high for decades.

8. A Blow to Small Businesses

Big corporations can absorb price shocks, reroute supply chains, or even relocate manufacturing. Small businesses? Not so much. Main Street America would be hit the hardest, caught between soaring costs and customers unable to afford price increases.

9. Supply Chain Nationalism

Tariffs may prompt a push for “Made in America” goods, but rebuilding domestic industries isn't a light switch—it takes years, if not decades. In the short term, we’d see more shortages, more bottlenecks, and more economic fragmentation.

10. Alienation of Allies

Tariffing friendly nations like Canada, the UK, or South Korea would erode trust, damage alliances, and make it harder to coordinate on shared global challenges like climate change, cybersecurity, or containing authoritarian powers. Isolationism may sound strong in speeches—but it’s weak in strategy.

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Final Thought: Be Careful What You Wish For

The idea of using tariffs to “punish” other countries sounds powerful on the stump. But in practice, it’s a self-inflicted wound—on consumers, businesses, allies, and America's global standing. If Trump goes all-in on tariffs, and he has, the immediate effects won’t be strength or prosperity. They’ll be pain, protest, and potential catastrophe.

Trump’s Trade War

Trump’s Trade War
Peace For Taiwan Is Possible

Trump’s Trade War

Trump’s Trade War
Peace For Taiwan Is Possible

Trump’s Trade War

The Emperor and the River: Why Manufacturing Jobs Aren’t Coming Back Why the U.S. Has Trade Deficits (And Why That Might Be by Design)
WTO Minus One: Trump’s Tariff Chaos and America’s Self-Inflicted Decline
China And Trade
Trumponomics: A 1600s Idea in 21st Century Clothing
Economic Theories That Disagree with Trump's Tariff Policy
$8 Billion Is Insufficient to End World Hunger
The Structure Of Trump's Victory
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6: Trump

6: Trump

6: Trump's Tariffs

5: Trade, Tariff

5: Trump, Tariff, Trade

The Emperor and the River: Why Manufacturing Jobs Aren’t Coming Back

Trump’s Trade War

The Emperor and the River: Why Manufacturing Jobs Aren’t Coming Back

There’s a popular political fantasy in America today—one where we simply bring back all the manufacturing jobs we’ve lost over the past few decades. It’s a powerful story, emotionally resonant and politically useful. But it’s also fundamentally disconnected from economic reality.

Take China, for example—the so-called “world’s factory.” Even there, manufacturing jobs are vanishing, not because they’re moving to Mexico or Vietnam, but because they’re being swallowed by automation. Robots don’t demand wages, lunch breaks, or better working conditions. They don’t unionize. And as they get cheaper and more efficient, they are replacing human labor—across the globe, not just in the West.

So when politicians like Donald Trump promise to reverse this trend by imposing tariffs or slashing regulations, they’re like emperors standing before a flooded river, commanding the water to stop rising. The economic tide is driven by forces far larger and more complex than any presidential decree.

But here’s the real tragedy: there are solutions. We could invest in new industries, upskill workers for the AI era, build green infrastructure, expand social safety nets, or reimagine how we measure and distribute economic value. We could foster innovation not just in tech, but in how we live and work.

The problem isn’t a lack of ideas. It’s a lack of political will—and more specifically, a stranglehold on power by a tiny group of ultra-wealthy elites. For decades, they’ve sold one-size-fits-all solutions: cut taxes for the rich, deregulate, privatize, and watch the “free market” fix everything. But what we’ve actually watched is inequality spiral, wages stagnate, and entire communities get hollowed out.

These billionaires are a hammer that only sees nails. Every problem becomes an excuse to push the same trickle-down agenda that got us into this mess in the first place.

It’s time to acknowledge the emperor has no clothes—and the river doesn’t care about his orders. If we want a future of dignity, opportunity, and economic justice, we need to look beyond nostalgia and toward bold, systemic change.

Trump’s Trade War

Trump’s Trade War
Peace For Taiwan Is Possible

Trump’s Trade War

Trump’s Trade War
Peace For Taiwan Is Possible

Trump’s Trade War

Why the U.S. Has Trade Deficits (And Why That Might Be by Design)
WTO Minus One: Trump’s Tariff Chaos and America’s Self-Inflicted Decline
China And Trade
Trumponomics: A 1600s Idea in 21st Century Clothing
Economic Theories That Disagree with Trump's Tariff Policy
$8 Billion Is Insufficient to End World Hunger
The Structure Of Trump's Victory
Only The Kalkiist Economy Can Fully And Fairly Harvest AI
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The Emperor and the River: Why Manufacturing Jobs Aren’t Coming Back https://t.co/lSPmibhUbq @RepJeffries @hakeemjeffries @AOC @RepAOC

— Paramendra Kumar Bhagat (@paramendra) April 5, 2025

Trump’s Trade War
Peace For Taiwan Is Possible

The Emperor and the River: Why Manufacturing Jobs Aren’t Coming Back https://t.co/lSPmibhUbq

— Paramendra Kumar Bhagat (@paramendra) April 5, 2025

Trump’s Trade War

5: China

Why the U.S. Has Trade Deficits (And Why That Might Be by Design)

Trump’s Trade War

Trump’s Trade War
Peace For Taiwan Is Possible

Trump’s Trade War

Why the U.S. Has Trade Deficits (And Why That Might Be by Design)

There’s a lot of hand-wringing about the United States’ persistent trade deficits. Politicians call it a problem. Economists debate it. And the public often hears it framed as a sign of weakness. But here’s a different perspective: maybe trade deficits aren’t a bug of the U.S. economic system—they’re a feature.

The Global Power of the U.S. Dollar

At the heart of this story is the U.S. dollar. For decades, it’s been the de facto global currency. Whether you're buying oil, investing in stocks, or settling international debts, chances are you're dealing in dollars. This gives the U.S. an enormous amount of financial power—and with it, some unusual consequences.

One of those consequences? The ability to print money—trillions of dollars' worth—and not suffer hyperinflation. Why? Because the world absorbs those dollars. Global trade, central banks, sovereign wealth funds, and corporations across the globe all demand dollars. When the U.S. prints more of them, a large portion doesn’t even stay in the U.S.—it gets soaked up abroad.

Printing Money Without Paying the Price

Most countries can’t get away with aggressive money printing. It would tank their currency, crash investor confidence, and lead to skyrocketing inflation. But the U.S. can. Because of the dollar’s privileged position, it can print and spend money freely—and other countries accept that money in exchange for real goods and services.

Think about that for a moment: the U.S. prints money, and in return, it gets cars from Japan, electronics from South Korea, textiles from Bangladesh, and oil from the Middle East. The dollars flow out, and products flow in. That’s a trade deficit in action. But it's also a sign of the dollar's overwhelming dominance.

You Can't Have It Both Ways

So here’s the dilemma: if the U.S. wants to keep the dollar as the world’s reserve currency and maintain loose monetary policy, it will inevitably run trade deficits. There’s no way around it. Dollars leave the country, goods and services flow in, and the U.S. consumes more than it produces. That’s the price of dollar dominance.

But what if the world wanted to fix this imbalance?

A Global Currency Alternative?

One option would be for major economies—say, the G7 plus BRICS—to come together and create a genuine global currency. It could be a basket of all major currencies, perhaps governed by an international institution. This would level the playing field and remove the "exorbitant privilege" the U.S. enjoys today.

Of course, don’t expect this to happen easily. Powerful interests in the U.S.—and politicians like Donald Trump—would be hyper-opposed to any such move. The current system gives the U.S. extraordinary leverage. Why would it willingly give that up?

The Bottom Line

If the U.S. wants to keep the dollar at the center of global finance and maintain its habit of aggressive money printing, then trade deficits are the inevitable result. You can’t have your cake and eat it too.

So the next time you hear someone complaining about the trade deficit, remember: it’s not just a problem—it’s also a choice.

Trump’s Trade War

Trump’s Trade War
Peace For Taiwan Is Possible

Trump’s Trade War
Peace For Taiwan Is Possible

Trump’s Trade War