Wednesday, August 13, 2014

Cold War, War On Terror



Let's draw parallels. There was the Cold War. And now there is the War On Terror, for lack of a better phrase. It is a tussle between radical, violent Islamism and liberal democracy. The Cold War simmered for over four decades. The War On Terror has gone on for a decade and a half already.

Russia is still not a democracy. You can have elections and no democracy. Russia is a prime example. It is a waning power with a GDP smaller than that of India.

In a sense the Cold War is not exactly over. Communism has seen defeat, but Russia is not yet a democracy.

The War On Terror will not end with a defeat of Islam. Extremist Islam will not be defeated by Christianity, but by moderate Islam. Extremist Islam can be contained and miniaturized, but not eliminated. Extremist Christianity still persists. You have right wing militia.

That civil morphing and the preponderance of moderate Islam will primarily be a function of the democratic process.

Dictatorships will have to make way. Moderate Islam will have to be nurtured.

This is hard work. It will take time. It can be expedited, but only to an extent.

It is hard to argue that Bush was wrong and Obama has been right, or that Obama is wrong, and the next president will do it right. It is not that easy. No matter what, the process will take time.

America's top priority understandably is to prevent another 9/11 style attack. To that end the country will make any sacrifice, go to any end. But that firefighting is not the solution. It is band aid.

My personal bias is for all those non violent methods of spreading democracy. Beaming in wireless internet across the Arab world and flooding the region with super cheap Android phones would be my tool of choice. The US government is not involved with either. Google is.

Monday, August 11, 2014

Hillary's Drastic Move

Pete Souza, Official White House Photographer
Pete Souza, Official White House Photographer (Photo credit: Wikipedia)
This is like Al Gore breaking up with Bill Clinton in 1999. Bill Clinton's reaction was, I would not do those two things on one day. Al Gore denounced Bill Clinton (reference: Lewinsky) and announced he was running for president the same day.

Hillary has done the exact same thing. She has broken up with Barack Obama. And she also has basically announced she is running for president. This is positioning.

Barack Obama showed plenty of steel on Libya. And he is showing a ton of spine on Putin. So it is hard to throw mud on him on Syria. Syria simply is complex.

Hillary's words come as too strong. Also, were you not the Secretary of State? This is a Foreign Minister criticizing the president's foreign policy from when she was Foreign Minister! Go figure.

This is also a sign Hillary is feeling it that Iraq might end up the reason why she loses in 2016. Poll numbers from before you actually start contesting the primaries are not that relevant.

Without taking sides on Iraq (or thinking that I have a better solution) just on political terms, I think Hillary just made a bad move.
“The failure to help build up a credible fighting force of the people who were the originators of the protests against Assad — there were Islamists, there were secularists, there was everything in the middle — the failure to do that left a big vacuum, which the jihadists have now filled..... Great nations need organizing principles, and ‘Don’t do stupid stuff’ is not an organizing principle.”
With “respect to Syria,” said the president, the notion that arming the rebels would have made a difference has “always been a fantasy. This idea that we could provide some light arms or even more sophisticated arms to what was essentially an opposition made up of former doctors, farmers, pharmacists and so forth, and that they were going to be able to battle not only a well-armed state but also a well-armed state backed by Russia, backed by Iran, a battle-hardened Hezbollah, that was never in the cards.”
 
Hillary Clinton takes on Barack Obama
Hillary Clinton criticises Barack Obama's policy on Syria and Israel
Barack Obama rebukes Syrian ‘fantasy’
Hillary Clinton: 'Failure' to Help Syrian Rebels Led to the Rise of ISIS

Thursday, July 31, 2014

Was Syria Bait?

Vladimir Putin - World Economic Forum Annual M...
Vladimir Putin - World Economic Forum Annual Meeting Davos 2009 (Photo credit: World Economic Forum)
Barack Obama: An American Portrait
Barack Obama: An American Portrait (Photo credit: tsevis)
Barack Obama showed flashes of political genius in his first speech that introduced him to America, at the Kerry Convention. He showed flashes of genius on the campaign trail. He showed flashes of genius in his first few years in office. Nailing health care reform after 50 years of trial and error, Wall Street reform. Getting Bin Laden was a flash of genius.

Immigration reform is in a ditch, and that is a sore point.

He took the right move on Libya. A dictator was toppled. But I was sore with him on Syria. How could he? How could he stand by?

But by now Syria feels like bait. It pulled Russia in. And by now Putin looks overstretched and brittle. Putin is a dictator. The Russian economy is the size of the Indian economy. It is not that big right now. And it is headed in the wrong direction. As in, India will double and triple in size and Russia will stagnate.

Obama just might topple Putin. Reagan, Bush, Clinton, Bush -- none of them brought democracy to Russia. Obama might.

Monday, July 14, 2014

Nitish, Laloo, Mayawati, Mulayam, Mamata, Left Coming Together

It is precisely the spectacular victory of the Modi-led BJP that has prepared grounds for the coming together of forces that did not see eye to eye for a long time, such is the emergent political arithmetic. Nitish and Laloo will come together in Bihar. Congress and the Left will join that bandwagon. Mayawati and Mulayam show no signs of seeing the writing on the wall. Mamata is strong on her own, but is observant of the fact that the BJP has displaced the Left as the principle local opposition.

Uttar Pradesh might be the trickiest. Right now the BJP is positioned to form the next state government. But the Bihar state elections will be held before the Uttar Pradesh state elections. And so UP has more time on its hands.

Nitish is obviously not finished yet.




Patnaik in Orissa and Jayalalita are already in good shape as it is.




Uttar Pradesh is the trickiest because Mulayam and Mayawati do not have what Nitish does, which is the development mantra. And without the development mantra you can't beat Modi just with alliance making.

Wednesday, July 09, 2014

You Can Not Beat Modi Just By Building Alliances

English: The temple at Modinagar, Ghaziabad di...
English: The temple at Modinagar, Ghaziabad district, Uttar Pradesh (Photo credit: Wikipedia)
Nitish has a great record on development. He can compete with Modi. He was an excellent Chief Minister, and Laloo was an excellent Railways Minister. If they come together, they can give Modi competition.

But Uttar Pradesh is not the same. There not only Mayawati and Mulayam don't have a development record, they are nowhere close to even talking, let alone seeing an alliance's need. Political arithmetic might suggest a Mayawati-Mulayam alliance would trounce Modi. But that is like when Microsoft and Yahoo ganged up to take on Google. It did not quite work out. Google's share did not diminish. In fact it ended up with even more users in the aftermath. You compete with Google on the quality of your search results not by building alliances.

The way to beat Modi is with development. Alliances are secondary, though important. Modi, in his historic victory, might have prepared ground for the unthinkable: the coming together of the Left and Mamata in West Bengal, Nitish and Laloo in Bihar, and Mayawati and Mulayam in Uttar Pradesh.

Nitish has to take the lead for all three states on the development front. Otherwise it will be a Modi juggernaut all the way.