Friday, April 03, 2015

बिहार, उत्तर प्रदेश और मोदी/BJP



AAP के दिल्ली sweep करने के बाद मेरे को लगा शायद AAP बीजेपी को २०१७ में UP में challenge कर सके। लेकिन AAP के भितर जो infighting का दौर चला है उससे मेरे को लगने लगा है २०१७ में BJP २०१४ के तरह फिर से UP sweep करेगी। SP का तो बुरा हाल है। जनता परिवार एक हो रही है, ये लोकतंत्र के लिए अच्छी बात है। क्योंकि वो जब फुटे थे तो गलत सतही कारन से फुटे थे। अब एक हो रहे हैं। क्यों कि रास्ता नहीं दिख रहा है। मोदी ने २०१४ में भारत के राजनीति में बहुतो को endangered species बना दिया।

जनता परिवार नीतिश के नेतृत्वमें एक होते तो लगता चलो ये भी development man हैं। लेकिन मुलायम थके हुवे लोग हैं। BJP में आडवाणी, जनता परिवार में मुलायम -- दोनो थके हुवे लोग हैं। Private sector में दोनों को retirement मिल गइ होती। नीतिश को बुरा लगा कि आडवाणी का जगह मोदी ने क्यों ले लिया? इसीलिये वो अपना जगह मुलायम को दे रहे हैं। नीतिश के कारण मुलायम को उत्तर प्रदेश में जित न भी मिल सकती है, लेकिन ये गारंटी है कि मुलायम से नीतीशको बिहार में घाटा है नाफा कोइ नहीं। मुलायम क्लियर कट Non Development Man रहे हैं। उत्तर प्रदेश को मुलायम ने गरीब नहीं बनाया, उत्तर प्रदेश पहले से गरीब राज्य था। लेकिन उस गरीब उत्तर प्रदेश को मुलायम ने ऊँचा भी तो नहीं पहुँचाया। ज्यों का त्यों छोड़ दिया। एक मंडल wave था देश में --- तब मुलायम आगे आए। लेकिन देश में अब एक development wave है। मोदी खुद जन्मसे तेली, बनिया कास्ट में पैदा हुवा आदमी। यदि Mandal का आज कोइ relevance है तो मोदी खुद उसके चेहरा हैं।



तो अभी मेरे को लग रहा है BJP २०१७ में UP sweep करेगी। (१) UP भारतका heartland state है। (२) अब तो UP मोदी का home state हुवा। वाराणसी से MP हैं वो। (३) राज्य सभा में अपना ताकत बढ़ाने के लिए BJP के लिए UP में राज्य सरकार बनाना बहुत जरुरी है।

भारत को Third World Country बनाने में UP और बिहार का बहुत बड़ा हाथ है। जनसंख्या दोनों का इतना ज्यादा है। गरीबी इतनी ज्यादी है। नहीं तो गुजरात को देखो तो वो युरोप के  दो चार देशको छोड़ कर बाँकी सबसे आगे है। तो मोदी के सपने के लिए UP, बिहार और Northeast का बहुत बड़ा strategic महत्व है।

UP तो sweep है। Bihar is less clear cut. But there also there are no guarantees Nitish will win. Laloo and Nitish coming together does not necessarily mean they will win. Yahoo and Microsoft coming together on search did not make a dent in Google's market share. The opposite happened. Google's share increased. They might win. But again, they might not.



I think Modi is using the Land Acquisition Bill as a wedge issue to pry open the state governments in Bihar and Uttar Pradesh from his opposition's hands. He will sell the Bill hard on the campaign trail. I mean, he won me!

Bihar later in the year is not like Delhi. In Bihar it is a coin toss right now. It could go either way. And if the tilt is far enough, it might even lead to a sweep.

I am beginning to think perhaps Nitish walking away from the BJP two years back was a bad move. For the first major politician in India to have called Modi a future Prime Minister, he perhaps miscalculated. He might be months away from political retirement. That will be a Shakespearean tragedy. He has been the best Bihari Chief Minister of my lifetime.


Saturday, March 28, 2015

What Is Racism?

In Jeopardy, why do contestants have to answer in the form of a question? Is there some background to this quirky / obscure feature of the TV quiz show? Does it help quiz dynamics somehow? Is it simply a marketing device to differentiate the show from others? Do people like it?
I was Barack Obama's first full time volunteer in all of New York City. In some other country I might have been a Head of State myself. But I don't have a country. And I don't see me ever run for public office. I did not volunteer because I had political ambitions. I did not volunteer because I wanted to go to the White House, get a political job. Nothing like that. For me it was about 500 years of world history. I had been the only full timer Nepali in America to have worked for Nepal's spectacular democracy movement in 2005-06. And then the Madhesi Movement that followed. For me Obama 2008 was a continuation. I was going to put in my effort and then I was going to do tech entrepreneurship. When they nabbed me the precise day Hillary lost, my tech startup had 100K in the bank. The round 1 goal was 100K, and the goal had been met. The goal had been met months ago. But I wanted to see it through. I could not tear myself apart from the primary process unless I had seen Barack through. It was an entrepreneurial mistake: my then tech startup died in the process. But that's okay. It is not like I had a choice.

And I have stayed away in the aftermath. People don't think immigration detention. People think jail. I was obscure before, during and after. But I did not want to become an issue, however small. Being behind bars is politically radioactive. But I was done. As long as he got sworn in, that is all I had wanted. And I got it.

You can't put anyone behind bars for more than 24 hours unless you sentence him, so it was a human rights violation by international standards, but who cares about human rights, right? They did not read me my Miranda rights, either. China was known to snoop on citizens. Ends up America does it too! The scales don't even compare!

They had me disappear the precise day Hillary lost. The Machine did not lack poetry, did it? They let me out a few days after McCain was beat. It felt so political.

What I was accused of was considered light. The accusation was wrong. It talked of "hundreds of emails." If that phrase ever entered the judicial process, that was material for the crime of false allegation. There might have been 10 emails. After they got me out, the system had another guy go before me, he was sentenced to 10 hours of community service, something like that. Even if what I was accused of had validity, the system made a point to show me, it was light. But the system never intended to prove I was guilty.

There was a court order to not contact the person. I never did. I sent an email to these two other individuals -- I must have attended 100 plus events organized by the two during the preceding years -- and that email was interpreted as a court order violation.

The court appointed attorney belonged to the machine, not me.

For a harassing communication charge that they never had to prove, for a court order violation I never committed, they nabbed me. The idea was to get me in the immigration net and drop the light charge they never intended to prove.

Suddenly I am a petty thief to the system, rubbing shoulders with murderers, drug lords, mischiefs, bank robbers.

When they first came for me, the police officers were talking among themselves: "Who IS this guy?" As in, why are high level police officers and politicians' offices interested in him?

Top police officers downtown were involved. Charlie Rangel's office was involved. And if he was not personally involved, he should say so, I have badmouthed him in the loudest terms to give him an opportunity to come clean. Say you were not involved.

2008 immigration detention was the worst experience of my life. Nothing worse has ever happened to me. But I will take it. If I can put a black guy in the White House. Which I did. To me it is about 500 years of world history, although I like the guy plenty. I feel love for him. And he has been a great president.

Once they let me out, I get an email from a Co-Chair of the New York State Democratic Party inviting me to an event, if I show up, now that would have been a court order violation. Why would she do something like that?

And if she would, why are my fellow Obama 2008 volunteers not seeing this? And if they are not seeing this, do they mean anything to me anymore? I stayed away from Obama 2012. I did not have comrades. I might as well face the fact.

The recession feels like it might be over. And it bit me hard. I was not exactly living fancy before, but the recession years were tougher. But this year feels different. Things are beginning to happen. I am laying the foundations for the SuperEntrepreneur thing. All the motherfuckers who were involved in 2008, I have a message for you, you got yourself a script for Slumdog Billionaire. Just like those kids, I was also born in Bihar. Democracy gets rough in Bihar. You don't know rough. It is still Gangs Of New York time in Bihar. I will tough it out.

And I have to let it out, because I am sick and tired of these white tweedle dee tweedle dums in the US Senate projecting crash, crude racism at the black guy in the White House. You mean, you are going to act racist when you meet the black guy in the streets of Ferguson, and you are going to act racist when you meet the black guy in the White House! Nah! Not taking it lying down. There will be a fight. If we fought you in 2008, and 2012, we will fight you into infinity. So help me God. It is one of those things. Some of us paid a pretty steep price to get this guy into the White House, and don't you disrespect! We live in a global world now. It is not your mama's world we live in.

Barack Obama And Africa
Obama On Kimmel
Dear Ayatollah
A Racist Act By The US Senate