28: The Iran Strikes

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Overview of Attacks on Iran and CounterattacksThe conflict between Iran, Israel, and the United States has roots in longstanding tensions over Iran's nuclear program, regional proxy wars, and mutual accusations of aggression. These have escalated into direct military confrontations, most notably the "Twelve-Day War" in June 2025 and a major operation launched by the US and Israel on February 28, 2026. "So far" refers to events up to today (February 28, 2026), including Iran's immediate counterattacks. Below is a detailed timeline based on available reports, drawing from diplomatic negotiations, military actions, and regional responses. The focus is on direct attacks on Iranian territory or assets, and Iran's retaliatory strikes.Historical Context (Pre-2025 Escalations)Iran's nuclear program has been a flashpoint since the early 2000s, with the US and Israel accusing Tehran of pursuing nuclear weapons, while Iran maintains it is for peaceful purposes. Key pre-2025 events include:

• 2019-2020 Shadow War Escalations: After the US withdrew from the 2015 JCPOA nuclear deal in 2018, tensions rose with attacks attributed to Iran or its proxies, such as drone strikes on Saudi oil facilities (2019) and the US assassination of Iranian General Qasem Soleimani (January 2020). Iran retaliated by firing missiles at US bases in Iraq, injuring over 100 US troops but causing no fatalities.
• 2024 Direct Exchanges: In April 2024, Iran launched over 300 missiles and drones at Israel in response to an Israeli strike on an Iranian consulate in Syria. Most were intercepted, but it marked Iran's first direct attack on Israeli soil. Israel responded with limited strikes on Iranian air defenses in Isfahan. In October 2024, Iran fired 180 ballistic missiles at Israel amid conflicts with Hezbollah and Hamas, causing minor damage but escalating rhetoric.

These were largely proxy or limited strikes, but they set the stage for full-scale war.The Twelve-Day War (June 13-24, 2025)This was the first major direct war between Israel and Iran, triggered by Israel's preemptive strikes on Iranian nuclear and military sites after the IAEA declared Iran in violation of non-proliferation obligations in June 2025.

• Israeli Attacks on Iran: On June 13, the Israeli Air Force (IAF) conducted over 380 airstrikes using more than 200 jets, dropping 330 munitions on about 100 targets. Key sites hit included the Natanz Nuclear Facility, Fordow enrichment site, missile factories, military bases, and infrastructure in Tehran. Senior IRGC commanders and nuclear scientists were killed. No nuclear accidents occurred, but Iran's nuclear program was severely damaged.
• US Involvement: The US joined midway, conducting strikes on Iran's three main nuclear facilities (Natanz, Fordow, Esfahan) to support Israel and prevent nuclear weapon development. President Trump praised the operation but emphasized it was not for a long-term war.
• Iranian Counterattacks: Iran launched over 500 missiles at Israel, with more than 40 direct hits in populated areas, killing over 30 people. Iran also used proxies like Hezbollah for rocket barrages from Lebanon and Houthis for Red Sea shipping disruptions. No direct strikes on US soil or major bases were reported at this stage, but Iran suspended nuclear talks and rejected "zero enrichment" demands.
• Ceasefire and Aftermath: A US-brokered ceasefire was announced on June 23. Iran retained some enriched uranium stockpiles and technical know-how, but its conventional forces were weakened. Protests erupted in Iran against the regime, though they did not lead to collapse. The war raised oil prices and fears of broader conflict, with Iranian-backed militias in Iraq threatening US forces.

Post-war, Iran rebuilt its defenses with Russian S-400 systems, Chinese anti-stealth radars, and mobile missile launchers. A 2026 trilateral pact with Russia and China enabled real-time satellite intelligence sharing, enhancing Iran's ability to detect stealth aircraft. 2026 Escalations Leading to February AttacksNuclear talks resumed in early 2026 but stalled over US demands for Iran to dismantle facilities, ship enriched uranium abroad, and accept zero enrichment (with possible "token" allowances for medical purposes). Iran demanded full sanctions relief. Trump warned of "bad things" if no deal was reached, and reports indicated US consideration of limited strikes to pressure Iran.

• Proxy and Indirect Attacks: Iranian-backed militias (e.g., Kataib Hezbollah in Iraq) conducted unclaimed strikes on US forces in Iraq and threatened Kurdistan if used as a launchpad against Iran. Iran also supported Houthi attacks on shipping and Hezbollah pressure on Israel.
• Internal Unrest in Iran: Anti-regime protests, including student-led ones at universities, surged in February 2026, with clashes reported. The regime securitized campuses and warned against demonstrations.
• US Military Buildup: By mid-February, the US amassed its largest regional force since 2003, including the USS Gerald Ford carrier group. Strikes were discussed for as early as late February. Iranian officials threatened broad responses, including missile strikes on US bases, cyber attacks, and Strait of Hormuz disruptions if attacked.

The 2026 US National Defense Strategy noted Iran's intent to reconstitute forces despite setbacks. Attacks on Iran (February 28, 2026)Today, the US and Israel initiated a large-scale military operation against Iran, described as preemptive to destroy military capabilities, prevent nuclear weapon acquisition, and potentially enable regime change.

• Details of Strikes: Explosions were reported in Tehran near Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei's offices. Targets include nuclear sites (Natanz, Fordow, Esfahan), missile facilities, IRGC bases, and government assets. The operation involves airstrikes, with possible special forces insertions to disrupt command nodes. Trump stated the goal is to "defend the American people" and urged Iranians to overthrow their government.
• Scale: Larger than the 2025 war, with US forces from carriers like the USS Abraham Lincoln involved. Early reports indicate stealth and standoff munitions to blind Iranian radars. Casualties and damage assessments are ongoing, but Iran's upgraded defenses (e.g., Bavar-373, S-300) may increase risks for attackers.

Iranian Counterattacks (February 28, 2026)Iran declared the strikes an "act of war" and launched immediate retaliatory strikes, focusing on US and Israeli targets to impose costs without immediate full escalation.

• Targets and Methods: Iran fired drones and ballistic missiles at US bases, including the 5th Fleet HQ in Bahrain (Juffair), Al Udeid in Qatar, Al Dhafra in UAE, and Prince Sultan in Saudi Arabia. Strikes also targeted Israel directly. Shrapnel from a missile in the UAE killed at least one person—the first confirmed death. Iranian jets were airborne over Tehran for defense.
• Proxy Involvement: Militias like Kataib Hezbollah threatened wider attrition, with potential Houthi disruptions in the Red Sea and Hezbollah attacks on Israel.
• Broader Threats: Iran warned of cyber attacks, swarm boat assaults on ships, and possible Hormuz closure, which could spike oil prices above $200/barrel. Saudi Arabia condemned Iran's strikes on US bases.

Potential Next StepsIf escalations continue, analysts predict a multi-phase war: initial air strikes, ground insertions, and regime-targeted operations. Internal protests in Iran could amplify, but the regime's "Tharallah HQ" is mobilizing for repression. Global reactions include condemnations from BRICS nations and calls for restraint. Oil markets are volatile, with prices surging.
This situation is fluid, with reports of a second wave of attacks possibly imminent.