Showing posts with label iraq. Show all posts
Showing posts with label iraq. Show all posts

Friday, January 03, 2020

Qassem Suleimani: Dialogue Beats Escalation

This is escalation. Iran and the US have been going tit for that for a while now. Iran does something, then denies it. Then both powers wait, Iran fully knowing something is coming. Then the US hits, and denies. Then both wait. Both take care to make sure there is no all-out war, unwinnable for both, unless you intend to outdo Hiroshima and Nagasaki, which would be a political disaster for the US in the global arena.

The Iran strike on Saudi Aramco looked like a major escalation. The US has gone to war on smaller pretexts. And officially the US said this was Saudi Arabia's business. But that was only an attempt to relax Iran. Something had to be coming.

It is only a matter of time that Iran strikes back. But just like during previous times, it will attack in a surprising manner, and it will do so in a way that would not justify an all-out war kind of retaliation.

The sensible thing is for the two powers to talk. If the nuclear deal is not enough, talk about everything. Why not? But talk.

This tit for tat has gone for too long. And considering every round has been an escalation, every tit for tat takes us that much closer to an unthinkable all-out war. This is foolish. An all-out war will give the global economy a heart attack.

Imran Khan of Pakistan is in an excellent position to mediate.

The problem with tit-for-tat escalations is, it is fairly easy to miscalculate. You might get a war you did not even want.

Even the tactic of economic isolation and physical attacks aims to take you to the negotiating table. The idea is not that, enough of this and Iran will say, what paper do you want us to sign? So why not negotiate now? Why not talk?

Yemen's Roadmap To Peace
Kashmir Deserves Normalcy
Thoughts On The Middle East
Formula For Peace Between Israel And Palestine
The Stupidity Of The Ayodhya Dispute
Saudi-Iran: Imran Is The Only One Who Can



In 2017, when TIME included Soleimani on its list of the 100 most influential people, former CIA analyst Kenneth M. Pollack wrote that “To Middle Eastern Shi’ites, he is James Bond, Erwin Rommel and Lady Gaga rolled into one.” Inside Iran, his successes abroad evoke the past glories of the Persian empire that, in its early years, the Islamic Republic worked to downplay, because they predated Islam. But the ayatollahs have lately found an asset in nationalism; another poster memorializing Soleimani labels him “PERSIAN GENERAL.”
How Qasem Soleimani's Assassination in Iraq Comes at a Fraught Moment for Trump Yet the fact that Trump notified senior Republican lawmakers about the operation but left Democrats in the dark was a breach of protocol that heightened the political backlash. ........ Democrats say they now worry that the situation will spiral out of Trump’s control. Past Presidents didn’t make the same call when considering how to respond to Soleimani’s military sponsorship that has killed hundreds of American troops. “We didn’t lack for opportunities to go after [Soleimani] or other Iranian leaders, but we also understood the consequences of taking that action,” says Brett Bruen, a former NSC official under President Barack Obama. “And you only do so if you put in place a really sound, smart strategy.”

The strike on Suleimani was wildly reckless. Blowback will come That explosive national security crisis we’ve been concerned that Donald Trump would be faced with at some point in his presidency? It may be here...... the danger is that we’ve blundered right into something Iran is very good at: asymmetric escalation........ None of this was necessary or inevitable: Trump didn’t have to pull out of the nuclear deal, didn’t have to send more US troops to the region, and didn’t have to kill Suleimani. But we are where we are ......... third, make clear that the United States wants to begin a direct dialogue with Iran....... The reality is that we are in the midst of a full-blown national security crisis of Trump’s own making. And Trump’s incompetent leadership, derision of diplomats and the intelligence community that he needs now more than ever, and penchant for disastrous decisions means that this is likely to get worse before it gets better.

For many Iranian-American families, this moment has us sick and terrified It felt like the country my family had fled to had declared war on us........ The wars in Iraq and Afghanistan ushered in a new era of hell and social dislocation for any black or brown kid with a Muslim-sounding name. My friends and I were profiled, harassed, and interrogated, in and out of school. Our parents were bullied and blamed at work, in public, on the news and in casual conversations with the white parents of their kids’ friends...... For many everyday Iranian-Americans, 9/11 also reactivated an old traumatic fear of being blamed and villainized by Americans for things the Iranian regime did. Many of them dealt with it by receding from politics in fear....... We fight for an American democracy that doesn’t seem to acknowledge us; doesn’t seem to even understand itself, let alone our people....... Childhood me didn’t know that in my lifetime I’d fight a Muslim travel ban, battle Iranian family separation, watch a historic Iran deal be created that was decades in the making, then be reneged on by the US one administration later. In 2018, I became the first Iranian-American elected official in Minnesota history. As a city councilwoman, most of my work is for my constituency. But my family stories and the fallout of US foreign policy on my life experience is what propelled me and so many others into politics........

For so many Iranian-American families, this moment of precipice has us sick and terrified. It isn’t just detached political analysis and smug Twitter takes to us. It is about a lifetime of broken US Iran policy shaping a volatile current we have swum in for decades.

...... Don’t let liars and warmongers justify more violence in our names. Don’t let our oppressors tell you that questioning yet another one of their endless wars is supporting oppression. ..... We need your congressional action, popular action, anything to prevent war with Iran and to hold to the searing light the truth about the path that got us here.

The US, Iran, and the fallout of Soleimani's assassination
World War 3: What will happen next after Iran pledges ‘vigorous revenge on America’?
Trump has created his biggest foreign policy crisis yet
Trump's opportunism could plunge the Middle East into turmoil
Trump Is Playing Chess One Turn at a Time An impulsive president tries to look tough without being prepared to follow through. ........ Soleimani was an exceptionally talented and skillful leader who inspired his subordinates and a larger Shia public. He masterminded forms of warfare that were not without precedent—after all, Frenchmen and Englishmen waged proxy war in 17th-century North America—but to which he brought rare skill and subtlety. Iran is a negligible conventional power, but through its mastery of sympathetic and controlled regional militias; clever use of technology (including explosively formed projectiles for roadside bombs, but also drones, speedboats, and missiles); and deployment of propaganda, it has become the most formidable Middle Eastern power after Israel. Soleimani was very, very good at 21st-century war........ Soleimani’s demise is not only infuriating but demoralizing for his subordinates. A web of contacts and relationships cultivated over nearly 40 years of chronic warfare will vanish with him. Like one of his Hezbollah protégés, Imad Mughniyeh (assassinated by Israel in 2008, possibly with American help), he will prove impossible to replace for some period of time, perhaps forever....... Iran’s reaction to Soleimani’s assassination is unpredictable. It could be an explosion of violence, or long-term revenge plotted and executed over years, or attacks on exposed American outposts in Iraq and Syria, or terrorism in other countries, or mass-casualty events, or the proportionate killing of a senior American general. Or the Iranians could simply curl up in the fetal position. There are precedents for that, too, the most spectacular of which followed the shooting-down of an Iranian commercial aircraft in 1988 by an American warship, which killed all 290 passengers and crew members. It was a dreadful mistake, and in the immediate aftermath the U.S. government braced itself for a wave of terrorism in response. Instead, the Iranian government seemed to conclude that the Americans were willing to go to any lengths to bring them down, and moved quickly to terminate the Iran-Iraq War on terms disadvantageous to themselves...... Indeed, in one of those clever strokes of theatrical violence at which Iran excels, in September 2019 a sophisticated attack on Saudi oil facilities showed just how much damage the Iranians can do. It sent a message to the Gulf countries that the Islamic Republic was not going away, and could do a lot of damage that the Americans could not prevent. The ambiguity of the attack—credit was claimed, implausibly, by Houthi tribesmen in Yemen, but no one doubts that it was Iranian-directed—may be a hint of what lies ahead....... Iran cannot beat the United States in the field, but it can win the war politically, and may very well do so......... And above them all is a mercurial, impulsive, and ignorant president who has no desire to be pulled into a Middle Eastern war in an election year, and who wants to look tough without being prepared to follow through. This is a recipe for strategic ineptitude, and possibly failure......... some of his seniors “were not complete fools.” However, he noted, "it was the habit of all of them to look straight, and not very far, ahead. They saw their immediate duties and did those, not vaguely or stupidly, but in an experienced firm way. Then they waited until whatever was going to happen, happened. Then they sized this up, noted whatever new duties there were, and did those. Their position was that of a chess player who had in his head no moves beyond the one it was now his turn to make. He would be dumbfounded when, after he had made four or five such moves (each sensible enough in itself) sudden catastrophe, from an unexpected direction by an unexpected means, fell on him, and he was mated."



Politics of Iran Iran has a democratically elected president, a parliament (or Majlis), an Assembly of Experts which elects the Supreme Leader, and local councils. According to the constitution, all candidates running for these positions must be vetted by the Guardian Council before being elected. ...... Emigration has lost Iran millions of entrepreneurs, professionals, technicians, and skilled craftspeople and their capital. For this and other reasons Iran's economy has not prospered.[citation needed] Poverty rose in absolute terms by nearly 45% during the first 6 years since Iraqi invasion on Iran started and per capita income has yet to reach pre-revolutionary levels when Iraqi invasion ended in 1988. ........... The Supreme Leader of Iran[11] is the head of state and highest ranking political and religious authority (above the President). The armed forces, judicial system, state television, and other key governmental organizations are under the control of the Supreme Leader. There have been only two Supreme Leaders since the founding of the Islamic Republic, and the current leader (Ali Khamenei), has been in power since 1989. His powers extend to issuing decrees and making final decisions on the economy, environment, foreign policy, education, national planning of population growth, the amount of transparency in elections in Iran, and who is to be fired and reinstated in the Presidential cabinet. .......The Supreme Leader is appointed and supervised by the Assembly of Experts. However, all candidates to the Assembly of Experts, the President and the Majlis (Parliament), are selected by the Guardian Council, half of whose members are selected by the Supreme Leader of Iran. Also, all directly-elected members after the vetting process by the Guardian Council still have to be approved by the Supreme Leader........ According to the constitution, the Guardian Council oversees and approves electoral candidates for most national elections in Iran. The Guardian Council has 12 members: 6 clerics, appointed by the Supreme Leader and 6 jurists, elected by the Majlis from among the Muslim jurists nominated by the Head of the Judicial System, who is appointed by the Supreme Leader. According to the current law, the Guardian Council approves the Assembly of Experts candidates, who in turn supervise and elect the Supreme Leader.......

The reformists say this system creates a closed circle of power. Iranian reformists, such as Mohammad-Ali Abtahi have considered this to be the core legal obstacle for the reform movement in Iran.







“A nasty, brutal fight”: what a US-Iran war would look like The bottom line: It’d be hell on earth. ....... A deadly opening attack. Nearly untraceable, ruthless proxies spreading chaos on multiple continents. Costly miscalculations. And thousands — perhaps hundreds of thousands — killed in a conflict that would dwarf the war in Iraq...... Welcome to the US-Iran war, which has the potential to be one of the worst conflicts in history...... the Eurasia Group, a prominent international consulting firm, now puts the chance of “a limited or major military confrontation” at 40 percent.

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Wednesday, November 20, 2019

The Hong Kong "Contagion:" Iran, Iraq, Lebanon, Chile And Counting











The Common Element Uniting Worldwide Protests For many of the protests taking place around the world, the lack of an appointed leader is deliberate........... “A leader is best when people barely know he exists,” Lao Tzu, the ancient Chinese philosopher and founder of Taoism, is thought to have said. “When his work is done, his aim fulfilled, they will say: ‘We did it ourselves.’’’ ...... From Hong Kong and Chile to Iraq and Lebanon, people have utilized social media to whip up spontaneous, mostly nonviolent grassroots demonstrations against their respective governments—efforts they have vowed to sustain until all their demands are met. ....... Without a clear organizer at the helm, do these protests risk morphing into something even its participants can’t control? Is the lack of centralized leadership a source of weakness—or strength? ......... In Chile, the protests have focused on inequality and corruption. In Lebanon and Iraq, the protests against the countries’ political systems have transcended sectarian lines. While some demonstrations erupted over specific grievances, such as proposed legislation in Indonesia to weaken the country’s anti-corruption agency and reduce the personal freedom of citizens, protests in Haiti, Egypt, and Bolivia have expanded beyond their original aims into calls for their governments to resign. ......... In France, the similarly amorphous “yellow vest” movement has also proved its staying power. The national protests, which spiraled from grievances over rising fuel prices into a broader anti-government demonstration, celebrated its first anniversary on Sunday. Still, some things have changed. Though the spirit of revolt is still strong, the turnout has dwindled......... “These movements don’t appeal to specific categories,” he said. “They appeal to the entirety of the citizenry … who feel defrauded by the political class.” ........ Whereas some have relied on encrypted messaging services such as Telegram, others use AirDrop, Apple’s fire-sharing function that lets users easily share content between devices. ........... “Technology means you don’t need a leader to disseminate strategy. The strategy disseminates horizontally.” ...... For many, the leaderless nature is the point. After all, appointing leaders makes it easier for governments “to focus on them, to pick them off, to arrest them, kill them, denigrate them” ....... In Catalonia, where thousands of people have railed against the Spanish Supreme Court’s October decision to jail nine Catalan separatist leaders, protesters paid tribute to Hong Kong by adopting some of their tactics, including staging a blockade of Barcelona’s airport.......... In Chile, at least 20 people have been killed. In Iraq, the death toll has surpassed 300. ........ he said protest movements “are by their very nature not sustainable in the long term,” in large part due to the amount of energy and commitment it takes to maintain them. Unlike official parties and organizations, “they don’t have the bureaucratic structures that would keep them going.” ......... For many protesters, though, the mind-set is simple: Don’t stop until all their demands are met. For those in Hong Kong, it’s expressed through the popular chant “Five demands, not one less.” In Lebanon, protesters have adopted the slogan “All of them means all of them,” in reference to their rejection of the entire political class. ........ “we shouldn’t expect from social movements that which social movements cannot deliver,” noting that it’s not their job to solve the problems that spurred them. Rather, it’s “to raise questions that were not previously on the political agenda [and] to show that there is a large section of the population that doesn’t feel represented.”

The Rising Costs of Protest in Hong Kong When the protests first began, talk of dying for the movement seemed outlandish. Now it is all too real. ........ Just five years before, during the Umbrella Revolution, the use of tear gas by police had stunned Hong Kong, and this time around, the use of the noxious gas was still shocking enough to lead news reports and dominate polite conversations on the weekdays between demonstrations........... as the weeks rolled on and the authorities in Hong Kong (and, in reality, in Beijing) refused to meet most of the protesters’ demands, police were left by the government with the seemingly impossible task of solving a fundamentally political problem ......... It is almost a cliché now to note that the unofficial motto of this leaderless movement is “Be like water.” ........ The rage expressed by protesters as the day wore on was imbued with a sense of desperation stoked by the feeling that they are largely powerless within Hong Kong’s political system. ......... In the afternoon, demonstrators attempted to take control of an elevated pedestrian bridge from riot officers. Rubber bullets and sponge grenades thwacked against protesters’ umbrellas as they mounted a charge up a steep escalator. It did not take a sharp military mind to see that the odds were not in their favor. Police were better equipped and had the higher ground, yet the protesters pushed on before finally being repelled under a cloud of tear gas so thick, it was difficult to see more than a few feet ............ Above, on the mall’s pedestrian bridge, shoppers pressed their phones to the glass, hoping to capture a few moments of the mayhem.
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Saturday, October 05, 2019

The Middle East Cold War







New Middle East “Cold War” Can’t Be Explained by Sunni-Shia Divide

Sunni versus Shia’ makes for a simple headline, but does not do justice to the complexities of the new Middle East cold war”

....... a “cold war” in which Iran and Saudi Arabia are “playing a balance of power game.” ....... While “the current confrontation has an important sectarian element,” to understand it simply through this lens would “distort analytical focus, oversimplify regional dynamics, and cause Iran and Saudi Arabia’s motives to be misunderstood.” The two regional powers are certainly “using sectarianism in that game,” Gause argues, “yet their motivations are not centuries-long religious disputes but a simple contest for regional influence.” He also stresses that “the regional cold war can only be understood by appreciating the links between domestic conflicts, transnational affinities, and regional state ambitions.” .......

A key factor in this new cold war is the weakness of state governance throughout the Middle East.

The Saudi-Iranian “contest for influence plays out in the domestic political systems of the region’s weak states,” or states in which “the central government exercises little effective control over its society.” Gause emphasizes that “it is the weakening of Arab states, more than sectarianism or the rise of Islamist ideologies, that has created the battlefields of the new Middle East cold war,” by pushing regional actors to “support non-state actors effectively in their domestic political battles within the weak states of the Arab world.” ........ the U.S. should “prefer order over chaos” and support states that provide effective governance “even when that governance does not achieve preferred levels of democracy and human rights.” ...... The American invasion of 2003 took the lid off Iraqi politics, allowing Iran (most successfully), Turkey, Saudi Arabia and other regional parties to play into Iraqi politics. They did not have to force themselves onto the scene. Local Iraqi parties, fighting for dominance in the new Iraq, invited foreign support. The same is now happening in Syria. Once players in the regional game, both Iraq and Syria are now playing fields. The new Middle East cold war is being played out in the domestic politics of these newly weak Arab states.

Beyond Sectarianism: The New Middle East Cold War: Full Report



The very real human tragedies in places like Yemen and Syria are reason enough for the regional and the global powers to seek to ontrack the regional competition for power.
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And Now Iraq Erupts

While the world is still trying to figure out Hong Kong, Iraq erupts.





The young people in Hong Kong as well as Iraq see that there is no future for them. The story that was always told about, get an education, get a job, get married, get a place to live, that whole story seems to get out of reach. There is no delivery in sight.

The solutions necessarily have to be radical and large scale. The same old, same old will not do.

Giving every single human being an ID on the Blockchain, putting in place a 3% wealth tax on all of the $300 trillion in wealth today to pay for a Universal Basic Income for every human being on earth: that is the solution. And it requires something radical like the formation of a world government.

30-30-30-10: A More Thoughtful And Egalitarian Formula For Equity Distribution In Tech Startups For The Age Of Abundance
The Blockchain: Fundamental Like The Internet
The Blockchain Rumble
The Character Called The Tech Entrepreneur

Inequality And Climate Change Are Existential: A Blueprint For Survival
Towards A World Government
AOC 2028      

Eat Sleep Exercise
Pray Love Meditate Eat Sleep Exercise: Body Mind Heart Soul: Recipe For Good Health At All Four Levels

The Centrality Of The Gospel
Forgiveness: The Bicycle For Your Soul
Finding God In The Major Religions
Flying Cars, The Internet, Nanotubes, And Service To God
Table Talk (a novella)
Atheism Is Arrogance, Ignorance And Bondage

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Saturday, December 26, 2015

बुश का बघदाद (२)

बुश का बघदाद

अमरिका पर बिन लादेन ने बाद में हमला किया। उससे पहले हमला बोला बुश ने। Record Surplus को Record Deficit बना दिया। इतना बड़ा टैक्स कट किया कि देश सीधे मुह के बल जा के गिर पड़ी।

जनता मुर्ख। उसने वैसा ही मैंडेट माँगा था। जनता ने दे दिया। अमेरिका के गरीब जनता को social issues पर इस तरह डिवाइड कर दिए हैं ये नियमित अपने अहित में वोट देते रहते हैं।

९/११ हुवा। तो अफ़ग़ानिस्तान पर वार करो। कि पर्ल हार्बर पर अटैक किया जापान ने और तुम ने अटैक कर दिया इंडोनेशिया? Looking Tokyo Going London? अभी भी ४०% अमेरिकी कहते हैं ९/११ किया सद्दाम ने। ४०% वो वही हैं जो नक़्शे पर प्रशांत महासागर नहीं ढूँढ सकते। २०-३०% अमरीकी कहते हैं ओबामा मुसलमान है।

कितने लोग मरे वो भी हिसाब करो लेकिन ओ अलग करो। इस ब्लॉग पोस्ट में सिर्फ पैसा की बात करते हैं। एक से १० लाख के बीच लोग मरे सब मिला के। युद्ध के कारण जो सिविल वॉर हो गया उसके मृतक भी तो गिनोगे। जितने अमरिकी ९/११ में मरे उससे जयादा इराक में।

युद्ध का बिल बुश का तीन ट्रिलियन डॉलर। वो इतना ज्यादा पैसा है लोग सोंचना ही छोड़ देते हैं। कहीं १०० डॉलर पॉकेटमारी होती है तो पुलिस बुलाओ। एक लाख डॉलर का फ्रॉड होता है तो पुलिस बुलाओ केस करो। मिलियन डॉलर करप्शन को लफड़ा हो जाता है। लेकिन तीन ट्रिलियन। उसको तो छोड़ दो।

ट्रिलियन से नीचे का तो गप्प ही नहीं है बुश काल में। पहले तो एक ट्रिलियन सबसे धनाढ्य लोगो को बाँट दिया। बाँट ही दिया। लो, मुफ्त का पैसा। मेरे बाप की कमाई। तीन ट्रिलियन युद्ध में खर्च। MasterCard swipe करो। खर्चा कौन भरेगा? चीन किस कामके? वॉल स्ट्रीट पर ट्रिलियन डॉलर का फ्रॉड। तो अर्थतंत्र जब तास के घर के माफिक गिरा ........ बिन लादेन ने तो सिर्फ वर्ल्ड ट्रेड सेंटर गिराया। बुश ने पुरे अर्थतंत्र को ही गिरा दिया। अर्थतंत्र कोलॅप्स हुवा तो १३ ट्रिलियन डॉलर ऐसे गायब हुवा जैसे पीसी सरकार ने आ के गायब कर दिया हो। सफाचट। Wiped out, gone forever.

यार, किसी की भी ब्रेकिंग पॉइंट होती है। अमेरिकी अर्थतंत्र का भी था, वैज्ञानिक बुश ने पता लगा के छोड़ा।

अमेरिकी सरकार का एक साल का बजेट होता है तीन ट्रिलियन। यानि कि बहुत बड़ा अमाउंट है जिसकी मैं बात कर रहा।
अभी कहानी ख़त्म नहीं हुवी। तो स्टिमुलस कह के ७०० बिलियन खर्चे करने पड़े। करना चाहिए तीन ट्रिलियन लेकिन बुश के पार्टी ने होने नहीं दिया। तो देशको monetary स्टिमुलस के रास्ते जाने पड़े। उसका मतलब प्रिंटिंग प्रेस चालु करो और पैसा छापो। Basically पैसा छापो और बड़े बड़े बैंक को मुफ्त में दे दो। जीरो इंटरेस्ट रेट पर। सब तरफ बुश के दोस्त ही दोस्त।

Quantitative Easing
Quantitative easing is distinguished from standard central banking monetary policies, which are usually enacted by buying or selling government bonds on the open market to reach a desired target for the interbank interest rate. However, if a recession or depression continues even when a central bank has lowered interest rates to nearly zero, the central bank can no longer lower interest rates. The central bank may then implement a set of tactics known as quantitative easing. This policy is often considered a last resort to stimulate the economy. ...... A central bank enacts quantitative easing by purchasing—without reference to the interest rate—a set quantity of bonds or other financial assets on financial markets from private financial institutions...... Quantitative easing, and monetary policy in general, can only be carried out if the central bank controls the currency used in the country. The central banks of countries in the Eurozone, for example, cannot unilaterally expand their money supply and thus cannot employ quantitative easing. They must instead rely on the European Central Bank (ECB) to enact monetary policy.
How the Great Recession Was Brought to an End
The U.S. government’s response to the financial crisis and ensuing Great Recession included some of the most aggressive fiscal and monetary policies in history. The response was multifaceted and bipartisan, involving the Federal Reserve, Congress, and two administrations. Yet almost every one of these policy initiatives remain controversial to this day, with critics calling them misguided, ineffective or both. The debate over these policies is crucial because, with the economy still weak, more government support may be needed, as seen recently in both the extension of unemployment benefits and the Fed’s consideration of further easing. ....... without the government’s response, GDP in 2010 would be about 11.5% lower, payroll employment would be less by some 8½ million jobs, and the nation would now be experiencing deflation. ...... When we divide these effects into two components—one attributable to the fiscal stimulus and the other attributable to financial-market policies such as the TARP, the bank stress tests and the Fed’s quantitative easing—we estimate that the latter was substantially more powerful than the former.

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Friday, December 25, 2015

बुश का बघदाद

MasterCard Classic
MasterCard Classic (Photo credit: Wikipedia)
बुश जब बघदाद आया तो सबसे पहले क्या काम किया कि ट्रांसफार्मर उड़ाओ, पानी टंकी उड़ाओ। सद्दाम कहीं भी छुपा हो सकता है। अजीब आदमी है। ये नहीं सोंचा लोग पानी पीते होंगे। मरुभूमि इलाका। तबतो सद्दाम ने पानी टंकी लगवायी होगी। कि पानी टंकी लगा दो नहीं तो लोग बगावत कर देंगे। प्रेस्टीज इशू है। अगर लोग बगावत कर देते हैं तो फिर ये जो इमेज है कि सद्दाम डिक्टेटर है वो तो गयी काम से। तो बुश ने उड़ा दिया। सबसे पहले। उसको कोई परवाह नहीं कि बगावत हो सकती है।

बुलडोज़र लगाने में टाइम लगता है क्या? दो चार रोज में युद्ध ख़त्म। तो फिर तुरंत उन्ही ट्रांसफार्मर और पानी टंकी के लिए अपने करीबी दोस्तों को मेगा बिलियन का बिना कम्पटीशन का कॉन्ट्रैक्ट दे दिया। देश लिबरेट कर दिया अब लगा दो ट्रांसफार्मर, लगा दो पानी टंकी। इराकी भी क्या याद करेंगे। 

राजनीति में एक पुराना नियम है: Follow The Money. अगर आपको राजनीति समझ नहीं आती और समझना हो तो ये फोर्मुला लगा दो बहुत राजनीति आपको समझ में आ जाएगी। 

कुछ हैं conspiracy theorists वेबसाइट बगैरह बना के बैठे हैं कहते हैं ९/११ बुश ने किया, it was an inside job ---- अजीब लोग हैं। बिन लादेन को इस बात का इतना बुरा लगता था वो कभी क्रेडिट लेने से नहीं चुकता था। वीडियो निकालता था कि ईद मुबारक और अंत में जाते जाते ९ दो ११ के बारें थोड़ा हिंट दे देता था। फिर से अटैक की तयारी करो या ऐसा कुछ। ताकि अगर कोई गलतफहमी हो तो दुर हो जाए। 

९/११ बुश ने नहीं किया। बिन लादेन ने किया। लेकिन जिसको हम आप और ओबामा Great Recession कहते हैं और जिसे बुश और उनके दोस्त लोग Grand Recession कहते हैं --- वो लेकिन inside job था ---- fully documented. 

अमेरिका का अपना पैसा तो था नहीं। चीन से उधार में लो और इराक में खर्चा करो। बुश ने क्रेडिट कार्ड स्वाइप कर के युद्ध किया। Paid for by MasterCard. ..... कहते हैं There are somethings money can't buy, for everything else there is MasterCard. तो बघदाद का पानी टंकी बगैरह वो MasterCard केटेगरी के थे। 

अगर आप के देश का बजेट हो १०० बिलियन और आप ३३ बिलियन युद्ध में होम दो तो क्या होगा? उसी हिसाब से अगर आप के देश का बजेट हो तीन ट्रिलियन तो? 



नेपाली में कहते हैं भ्वांग। मैथिलि में कहते हैं भुम। हिंदी में क्या कहते हैं? 

तो ये सबके सामने हो रहा था तो वाल स्ट्रीट वालो ने फोटोकॉपी मार दिया। घर गिरबी रख के लोग लोन लेते हैं। लेकिन एक ही घर पर चार बार पाँच बार लोन लो तो क्या होगा? घर बैंक का है आप का अभी हुवा भी नहीं लेकिन आप ने लोन निकाल लिया। बैंक ने वैसे ढेर सारे घरो का बनडलिंग कर दिया और किसी दूसरे बैंक को होलसेल में बेच दिया। वैसे ही दो चार राउंड हो गया। उसको कहा गया innovation ---- यानि कि हम financial instruments बना रहे हैं। सब लोग अपना मंथली पेमेंट करते रहे तब तक पता नहीं चलता। लेकिन कुछ लोग ऐसे निकले घर खरीदने के स्थिति में नहीं थे फिर भी डाउन पेमेंट कर चुके थे। पियर प्रेशर। नौकरी चली गयी। मंथली पेमेंट बंद। पैसा रहेगा तब न दिजिएगा। आप बुश हैं जो चीन से उधार लोगे। 

तो पुरा घर तास के पत्ते के घर के तरह गिर गया ----- now THAT was an inside job. वो बिन लादेन ने नहीं किया। हालांकि वो क्रेडिट लेना चाहता था। उसका था कि अमेरिका को ऐसे युद्ध में घिंचो कि वो afford ना कर सके। 

Great Recession में कितने ट्रिलियन डॉलर ध्वस्त हो गए अभी तक हिसाब हो रहा है। बहुत मिडिल क्लास और लोअर मिडिल क्लास अमेरिकी का पेंशन गायब गया। उनकी क्या होगी वो तो जब वो रिटायर होंगे तब पता चलेगा। 

अमेरिका में भी बहुत घपला है।

चिनिया कहते हैं non-interference ----- वो लेकिन कह रहे हैं युद्ध बहुत खर्चिला होता है अच्छा बिजनेस नहीं। युद्ध से अच्छा बिजनेस हैं लोगों को लोन दो, विशेष कर के उन्हें जो युद्ध करना चाहते हैं।

टेक्सास में काऊबॉय कल्चर है।




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