Showing posts with label peace. Show all posts
Showing posts with label peace. Show all posts

Friday, October 04, 2019

Dubai, Pakistan, Peace, Prosperity

I have a soft spot for Imran. And I have been reading a lot about Dubai recently.

Dubai is rich. Pakistan is poor. But both need peace. The complex political tensions between Saudi Arabia and Iran have been costing Dubai big money.

And there is no way out for Pakistan unless there is peace on multiple fronts. Pakistan needs peace in Kashmir. Pakistan needs peace in Afghanistan. Pakistan needs peace between Iran and the Saudis. Pakistan needs peace in Yemen. In Syria. Pakistan needs peace between India and China.

India and China are like China and America. They can do war and peace at the same time. But India and China do need to settle their long border.

My knowledge of the Persian Gulf countries is much less than my knowledge of Pakistan. But I have been reading. Right now the domestic politics in many of these countries look downright opaque to me.

Saudis can't bring about regime change in Iran. Iran can't bring about regime change in Saudi Arabia. And so the formula for peace has to be co-existence. To the Americans I say, even if your goal is regime change in Iran, the formula that would work would be maximum trade and maximum tourism. The nuclear deal that Obama put in place was a floor on which more deals could have been built. For example, Yemen. The Saudis and the Iranians should meet and say, let's get out of Yemen. Let's engineer a peaceful political process instead. Israel should be part of the deal because it has the greatest interest in no nuclear spread. Also, it claims it is best at catching if Iran lies. Well then, why are you not part of the deal? To make sure Iran does not lie and cheat.

I was watching an interview of the Dubai Sheikh a few days ago. And he is pretty clear. He wants peace with Iran. Because he wants to trade with Iran. It makes sense to me.

Dubai is a beacon of hope. It needs to further prosper.




Imran's Peace Gamble In Afghanistan
The Dubai Sheikh Is A Business School Case Study
The Impeachment Drama
South Asians Working In The Gulf
Masa, MBS, And The Broader Investment Climate
The Biggest Reason For Lifting The Curfew In Kashmir
The Importance Of Being Kind
MBS Is Right About The Possible War
I Am Rooting For Imran To Succeed In Pakistan
Formula For Peace: Iran-Saudi-US, Taliban-US, India-Pakistan
Imran Wants To Lift 100 Million Pakistanis Out Of Poverty
The Blockchain Will Make A Global Wealth Tax Possible
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Imran's Peace Gamble In Afghanistan



The Taliban of Afghanistan remind me of the Maoists of Nepal. At their peak right before they entered the peace process, the Maoists held sway over 80% of the territory in Nepal. That does not mean they were ruling 80% of the country. But they had managed to drive out the state's presence in 80% of the country, which was meager in the first place. Right before the peace process the Maoists and the Nepal Army were at war. And a ceasefire was not an option. Because the seven political parties in Nepal were not in power. The king was.

And so the Maoists needed to declare a unilateral ceasefire. They had to then join an alliance with the political parties, who they had been targeting for years. Targeting in the Maoist language means killing.

So you declare a unilateral ceasefire with the Nepal Army who, by the way, never officially reciprocated. Then they form an alliance with the political parties. Together you wage a street movement in the capital city to drive the king out.

The six parties come to power. Then you come to power after you agree to put your army into cantonments. And you integrate the two armies and become a political party.

Fairly complex.

But I believe that is the formula also for Afghanistan.

Imran Khan is best positioned to deliver. I don't believe Donald Trump or Mike Pompeo understand the ground situation in Afghanistan. Terrorist bad, democracy good kind of language is not going to make headway. That is as much nuance as Bernie's Medicare For All.

The Taliban are a fighting force. And those fighters drawing salaries as soldiers in the Afghan Army would be a good way to get them out of the political equation. The nonfighters have to form a political party and be willing to contest elections. The elections could be for a constituent assembly to write a constitution for Afghanistan. Unless they agree to accept what is already in place. They might even emerge the largest party. If they do, they get to come to power. Two Maoists became Prime Ministers in Nepal. Why not?

I believe this is the way out.

Pakistan can not prosper unless there is peace in the neighborhood. The only person both the Taliban and the Afghan president are willing to talk to is Imran. The Americans just want to get the hell out. They just want reassurance that all hell will not break loose when they leave. A negotiated peace settlement will deliver that.

Imran Khan does not really need Donald Trump's involvement. Trump could be part of the final step in the process when Imran might be in a position to say, you can safely leave now.

In Nepal, there was this critical juncture right before the six parties (was it six or seven, I forget) and the Maoists formed an alliance. Some Maoists blew up a bus. That would have been an excellent reason for the six parties to walk away. But that walking away would have been a mistake. You have to understand, not all Maoists were happy. Many were feeling betrayed by their leadership. They were supposed to defeat the parties, not form an alliance with them. But walking away at that juncture would have been a bad idea.

Imran should tackle Afghanistan, then Kashmir, then Iran. Somewhere along the way, he should get the Nobel, but Greta first.

I was thinking perhaps Imran can not make moves between Iran and Saudi Arabia. But now I think he is in a very good position to do so. I think the Saudis overestimate the American willingness and ability to inflict military pain on Iran. The Americans primarily want to sell military hardware. They are not interested in actual war. If the Saudis want peace, they have to engage in direct talks with Iran, and perhaps Imran can mediate. Co-existence is the idea. Since finishing each other off is not an option.



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Friday, September 20, 2019

Modi's Big Political Mistake On Article 370 In Kashmir

The status quo was unsustainable. I grant you that much. But if the goal is lasting peace between India and Pakistan, the move just made by Modi and his Man Friday Amit Shah might not have been the best step forward.

First of all, let's start with the aspect that is black and white to me. Why do you have a curfew for so long? You have turned all of Kashmir into an open-air prison. You claim the move you just made is in the best interests of the people of Kashmir and their aspirations for peace and prosperity. Well then, let them speak. Let them come out into the streets and celebrate this wonderful move of yours. And if some want to peacefully protest, let them. Let the politicians out. Move Kashmir towards elections at the earliest.

I have long advocated that the key to permanent peace is for both countries to recognize the Line Of Control as the final border, and to boost trade and tourism across the border. That formula, applied between India and Kashmir, can then be taken also to the India China border, the longest disputed border in the world.

So you can say this abrogation of Article 370 is just a step in that direction. But a much better way would have been to take the people of Kashmir into confidence, to take the political leaders of Kashmir into confidence, to take Pakistan into confidence. Modi should have taken Imran Khan on his offer and organized summit talks, one attended not just by the Prime Ministers, but also by the two army chiefs, and the two intelligence chiefs.

And then the two could have agreed, let's leave the Pakistani Kashmir with Pakistan, and the Indian Kashmir with India, and let's pull back our troops and normalize the border. Let's now focus on trade and tourism. Let's compete to install full-fledged democracy across Kashmir. Let's compete on human rights.

After that summit and agreement with Imran Khan, Modi and team could then have taken people like Omar Abdullah and Mufti into confidence, and then the Article 370 could have been abrogated.

But now that where we are, the total focus has to be on restoring normalcy in Kashmir and heading towards elections. That is a black and white issue to me. And I will call out Delhi on that. Delhi is wrong to impose what looks like an indefinite curfew in Kashmir. That is wrong.

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Wednesday, September 18, 2019

Imran Khan: India's Last Hope For Lasting Peace



Imran Khan becoming Prime Minister of Pakistan is like if Muhammad Ali had become President Of The United States. Imran Khan has been the most well known Pakistani in India for much of his adult life. That has not changed. Not only well known, but popular, loved. Give the game of cricket some credit. The game seems to do what politicians can't.

Imran Khan means well. The US would like to see democracy in Iraq, perhaps in Iran. It should start in Pakistan. Pakistan is still a democracy being built. Instead of giving tens of billions to the Pakistan Army, the US should fund the work of democracy.

Imran wants lasting peace. I don't understand why Modi could have talked to Nawaj Sharif but will not talk to Imran.

Imran is a well-educated, well-traveled man. He is East meets West. He has children who are growing up in London. He can talk as articulately about Islam as he can about democracy and economic growth, health and education.

Islam is much misunderstood. It serves the world to give Imran Khan more stages on which to speak.

I want Imran Khan to do for Pakistan what Nitish Kumar did for Bihar after he started in 2005. Bihar was a big mess in 2005 when Nitish Kumar became Chief Minister. Pakistan is a big mess today. I think Imran can get it done. He can put Pakistan on a path to double-digit growth rates. He has what it takes. Permanent peace between India and Pakistan is key to that equation.



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Sunday, August 11, 2019

काश्मीर समस्या का समाधान कर्फ्यु और मार्शल लॉ नहीं हो सकता

इतिहास में क्या है उसी के तहत समस्या का समाधान ढुंढते रह जाएँगे तो फिर इतिहास में तो सब कुछ है। इतिहास में काश्मीर भारतका भी है और पाकिस्तान का भी। इतिहास में काश्मीर स्वतन्त्र देश भी है। इतिहास में भारत देश है भी और नहीं भी है। इतिहास में पाकिस्तान है भी और नहीं भी है। सिर्फ इतिहास को जिक्र कर के समस्या का समाधान ढूँढा नहीं जा सकता। इतिहास में तो एक से अनेक घाव हैं। पुरानी घावों को आप ताजा करेंगे?

इतिहास को बिलकुल नजरअंदाज भी नहीं किया जा सकता। लेकिन आपको सिद्धान्त पर चलना होगा। समस्या का समाधान सिद्धान्त पर चल के भी कठिन है लेकिन संभव है। कौन सा सिद्धान्त? कैसा सिद्धान्त? दुनियाकी सबसे बड़ी लोकतन्त्र का सिद्धान्त और क्या हो सकता है? लोकतन्त्र का सिद्धान्त।

जो लोकतन्त्र को मानते हैं वो ये मानते हैं कि ईश्वर ने प्रत्येक मनुष्य को बराबर का बनाया है। उसी सिद्धान्त के गणित को एक व्यक्ति एक मत भी कहते हैं। लेकिन लोकतन्त्र का मतलब बहुमत जो चाहे वो कर ले ये नहीं निकलता। लोकतन्त्र व्यक्ति से सम्बन्धित है। आप कह रहे हैं कि प्रत्येक मनुष्य के कुछ आधारभुत अधिकार होते हैं। उन अधिकारों को बहुमत तो क्या पुर्ण मत से भी नहीं छिन सकते हैं।

ये रियल इस्टेट की बात नहीं है। लोकतन्त्र का जमीन से सम्बन्ध होता तो दुनिया की सबसे बड़ी लोकतन्त्र भारतको नहीं माना जाता। छोटा सा देश भारत। भारत से लगभग तीन गुना बड़ा सहारा मरुभूमि है। सहारा को ही भारत से बड़ा लोकतन्त्र या देश कहते लोग। नहीं कहते हैं।

काश्मीर का मसला जमीन का नहीं है। काश्मीर का मसला वहाँ के अवाम से है।

एक होती है जमीनी यथार्थ। एक होती है क्लेम। यथार्थ है लाइन ऑफ़ कण्ट्रोल। क्लेम है कि पाकिस्तान और भारत दोनों पुरे के पुरे काश्मीर को क्लेम करते हैं। जब तक दोनों वो क्लेम करते रहेंगे टेंशन बना रहेगा। टेंशन बना रहेगा तो दोनों देशो में गरीबी बनी रहेगी। जितने गरीब लोग भारतके भितर हैं उतने दुनिका के किसी देश में नहीं।

गृह मंत्री कह रहे हैं ३७० हटा दिया। अब पाकिस्तान के अधीन जो काश्मीर है वो भी लेंगे। अक्साइ चीन भी लेंगे। कैसे लेंगे? ३७० तो हटाया बल प्रयोग कर के। बाँकी काश्मीर और अक्साइ चीन लेने के लिए पाकिस्तान और चीन से युद्ध करेंगे क्या? वो भी जानते हैं कि युद्ध असंभव है। बाँकी काश्मीर और अक्साइ चीन भारतका हो जाना असंभव बात नहीं है। लेकिन वहाँ तक पहुँचने का रास्ता युद्ध नहीं है। तीनो देश बातचीत करें। शायद रास्ता निकल जाए। आप ५० या १०० सालका टाईमटेबल निकालिए। शायद रास्ता निकल जाए।

नहीं अगर निकट भविष्य में ही हल निकालना चाहते हैं तो लोगों को इस तरह गुमराह मत किजिए।

जो लोकतन्त्र बिहार या महाराष्ट्र में है वही लोकतंत्र काश्मीर को भी दे सकते हैं तो कुछ हद तक माना जा सकता है कि चलो अकेले जितना कर सके किए। नहीं तो ये तो तानाशाही बात हो गयी। ये फ़ासिस्ट कदम हो गया।

वार्ता में होता है पॉस्चरिंग। थोड़ा बढ़चढ़ के बोलना होता है। बाद में वार्ता के दौरान थोड़ा पिछे हट जाते हैं और डील करते हैं।

ये जो कदम है ये स्थायी समाधान नहीं है। अस्थायी समाधान भी है कि नहीं ये कुछ समय बितने पर पता चलेगा। स्थायी समाधान है वार्ता। वार्ता किजिए। पाकिस्तान से। चीन से। फोर्मुला तो यही है कि तीनों देश लाइन ऑफ़ कन्ट्रोल को स्थायी सीमा मान लें और व्यापार पर फोकस करें। ताकि गरीबी को हटाया जा सके।


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Monday, June 17, 2019

भारत पाकिस्तान वार्ता तीन तह पर करिए

जब सोवियत संघ अफ़ग़ानिस्तान पर कब्ज़ा बना कर बैठा हुवा था और वो बात अमेरिका को पसंद नहीं था तो अमेरिकी ख़ुफ़िया एजेंसी सीआईए (CIA) ने बिन लादेन को रूस के विरुद्ध प्रयोग किया था। वही बिन लादेन बाद में हेडेक बन गया था अमरीका के लिए। हाल में फिर से सीआईए (CIA) ने आईसस (ISIS) को सीरिया में प्रयोग करने का प्रयास किया था।

जगजाहिर है पाकिस्तान की ख़ुफ़िया एजेंसी आईएसआई (ISI) कुछ आतंकवादी समुह को काश्मीर में प्रयोग करने के प्रयास मे रहती है। लेकिन पाकिस्तान के भितर जितने आतंकवादी समुह हैं सब के सब पाकिस्तान सेना के बटालियन के तरह हैं ये कहना गलत होगा। जब मुसर्रफ पाकिस्तान के तानाशाह थे तब एक ही हप्ते में दो दो बार उन पर जान लेवा हमला हुवा था। आये दिन समाचारे छपती है कि पाकिस्तान के भितर आतंकवादी समुह ने अटैक बोल दिया। सेना पर अटैक होती रहती है। आतंकवाद से पाकिस्तान खुद परेशान है।

जब मोदी नवाज से बातचीत कर रहे थे तो बात बिगाड़ने के लिए क्रॉस बॉर्डर स्ट्राइक करा दिया गया। किसने कराया? पाकिस्तान के सेना ने?

पाकिस्तान की अर्थतंत्र बहुत कमजोर अवस्था में है।

वार्ता दोस्तों के बीच नहीं दुश्मनों के बीच ही तो होती है। शान्ति वार्ता आप दुश्मन के साथ नहीं करेंगे तो क्या दोश्त के साथ करेंगे? मोदी और पुतिन के बीच दोस्ती है। उन दोनों के बीच शान्ति वार्ता की जरुरत नहीं है।

वार्ता नहीं शिखर वार्ता करें। और तीन चरणों में तीन तह पर करें। सिर्फ प्रधान मंत्री का प्रधान मंत्री से बात हो उससे शायद काम नहीं चलेगा। प्रधान मंत्री का प्रधान मंत्री से, सेनापति का सेनापति से, और पाकिस्तान की ख़ुफ़िया एजेंसी के प्रमुख का भारतके ख़ुफ़िया एजेंसी के प्रमुख के साथ।

शिखर वार्ता एक दो तीन करिए। एक काठमाण्डु में। दो ढाका में। तीन कोलंबो में। नेबरहुड फर्स्ट भी हो जाएगा लगे हाथ।



جب سوویت یونین افغانستان پر قبضہ کررہا تھا اور امریکہ پسند نہیں کرتے، امریکی انٹیلیجنس ایجنسی سی آئی اے نے اسامہ بن لادن کو روس کے خلاف استعمال کیا تھا. اسی طرح اسامہ بن لادن کو امریکہ کے لئے ایک ہیڈیک بن گیا. حال ہی میں، سی آئی اے نے شام میں آئی ایس آئی کا استعمال کرنے کی کوشش کی.


یہ معلوم ہے کہ پاکستان کی انٹیلی جنس ایجنسی آئی ایس آئی کشمیر میں کچھ دہشت گردی کے گروہوں کو استعمال کرنے کی کوشش میں رہتا ہے. لیکن یہ کہنا غلط ہے کہ پاکستان میں دہشت گردی کے تمام گروپ پاکستان کے بٹالین کی طرح ہیں. جب مشرف پاکستان کا ڈیکٹر تھا، تو وہ ایک قسط میں دو مرتبہ یا دو بار حملہ کیا گیا تھا. یہ دنوں سے واضح ہے کہ پاکستان کے دہشت گرد گروہ دہشت گردوں کی طرف سے حملہ کیا گیا تھا. فوج پر حملہ ہو رہا ہے. پاکستان خود دہشت گردی کی طرف سے پریشان ہے.


جب مودی نواز شریف سے بات کررہے تھے، تو اس معاملے کو خراب کرنے کے لئے سرحد پار سرحد پر حملہ کیا گیا تھا. کس نے کیا پاکستان کی فوج؟


پاکستان کی معیشت بہت کمزور ہے.


دوستوں کے درمیان بات چیت، دشمنوں کے درمیان نہیں ہوتا. دشمن کے ساتھ امن مذاکرات نہیں کریں گے، پھر آپ دشمن کے ساتھ کیا کریں گے؟ مودی اور پوتین کے درمیان دوستی ہے. ان کے درمیان امن مذاکرات کی کوئی ضرورت نہیں ہے.


سربراہی اجلاس پر بات مت کرو. اور تین اطراف تین مرحلے پر. وزیراعظم کے وزیراعظم سے گفتگو کرتے ہوئے، شاید وہ کام نہیں کریں گے. بھارت کے انٹیلی جنس ایجنسی کے سربراہ کے ساتھ، وزیر اعظم کے وزیر اعظم، کمانڈر کمانڈر آف پاکستان اور سربراہ پاکستان کے سربراہ کے ساتھ.


دو یا تین سربراہ اجلاس کرو ایک کنگھائی میں ڈھاکہ میں دو کولمبو میں تین پڑوسی سب سے پہلے بھی ہاتھ لگے جائیں گے.


भारतको चाहिए कि इमरान से वार्ता करें
Imran Khan Could Bring Peace
Narendra Modi And Imran Khan Should Solve Kashmir And Bag A Joint Nobel



Modi, Imran Khan Spent 9 Hours in the Same Room, But It Wasn't Really 'Pleasant' when Modi met Chinese President Xi Jinping, Modi reportedly said that his efforts to initiate peace with Pakistan have been “derailed” as the country was not addressing the need to create an atmosphere “free of terrorism”........ Modi and Khan also stayed about 30 km away from each other in Bishkek, Indian Express reported – Khan was in the Al Archa Presidential Palace of Kyrgyz President Sooronbay Jeenbekov with other SCO leaders, but Modi was at the Orion Hotel...... Another opportunity the leaders had to speak to each other was at a round-table dinner for eight leaders at Frunze restaurant. Even though they were almost facing each other, the Indian Express says, “there was no exchange of pleasantries”. It was clear that the two were giving each other the cold shoulder. ...... Modi hit out at Pakistan by talking about countries allowing and funding terror being held accountable. Khan replied by condemning “State-terrorism against people under illegal occupation” – a reference to Kashmir. ....... While Pakistan had given permission for Modi’s plane to fly over its airspace on the way to Bishkek, the Indian prime minister did not take that route.
PM Modi-Imran Khan exchange pleasantries during SCO Summit in Bishkek



Letter From a Pakistani to an Indian Friend: Can We Please Have a South Asian Union? Relations between our countries must improve, for the sake of the people. We may have nuclear arms, but India and Pakistan can’t feed, clothe and educate millions of their citizens. Tensions between us hinder development in the entire South Asia region. And yes, Pakistan is part of South Asia, not the Middle East. ....... India must stop human rights abuses in Kashmir, one of the world’s most heavily militarised regions, and withdraw troops from Kashmir that many Kashmiris see as occupation. Soldiers are victims too. They don’t choose where to be deployed. As you’ve noted, more soldiers have been killed in Kashmir in the last five years than the previous 15 combined....... The military dictator in the 1980s nurtured militants in the first Afghan war against the ‘godless Communists’ at the behest of the US and Saudi Arabia. The ‘mujahideen’ of those years morphed into the Taliban, Al Qaeda and other groups...... militants have killed over 70,000 Pakistani civilian and 10,000 security personnel since 2001 when the next military dictator tried half-heartedly to reverse earlier policies. ..... Politicians like Modi know that the 24/7 media beast thrives on conflict and will amplify war cries. ..... why can’t we fight over who will first eradicate poverty and illiteracy? ....... India and Pakistan must see Kashmir not as a territorial dispute but as a matter of the lives and aspirations of the people, who must be involved in any dialogue about their future. ...... it’s the land that India’s dominant narrative focuses on. The Kashmiris can go to hell. ....... It made no headlines when on a few days’ notice, hundreds joined the Global StandOut for Peace in South Asia demonstrations against the war hype between India and Pakistan in the first week of March, in some 20 cities from Kolkatta to Karachi, London and Oslo to San Francisco and LA, you in Delhi, me in Boston. It would have gone viral if participants had turned violent....... if historical enemies France and Germany can join a European Union, why can’t India and Pakistan be part of a South Asian Union? Why can’t we have a visa-free region? Let people meet, trade and travel.



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Monday, June 10, 2019

भारतको चाहिए कि इमरान से वार्ता करें



पाकिस्तान के भितर कई ऐसे आतंकवादी संगठन हैं जो भारत के भितर घुसपैठ का प्रयास करते रहते हैं। ये सच बात है। उनमें से सभी नहीं लेकिन कुछ ऐसे संगठन भी हैं जिसको पाकिस्तानकी ख़ुफ़िया एजेंसी आईएसआई (ISI) पनाह देती है। लेकिन इसका मतलब ये नहीं निकाला जा सकता कि पाकिस्तानके प्रधान मंत्री के सीधा कमांड के अंदर वे काम करते हैं। पाकिस्तान की जो सियासत है वो थोड़ी अजीब सी है। The left hand does not know what the right hand is doing वाली बात है। गरीब देश है। पिछड़ा हुवा देश है। आप यूट्यूब पर जा के देख लो। पाकिस्तान के टीवी पर जो विज्ञापन आते हैं उनका क्वालिटी देख लो। लो क्वालिटी होता है। तो पाकिस्तान में जो राज्य व्यवस्था है वो दुरुस्त नहीं है। मान लो पाकिस्तान एक तांगा हो और उसको तीन घोड़े तीन तरफ घिंच रहे हो। जनमत प्राप्त प्रधान मंत्री आगे जाने के प्रयास में हो। सेना कभी लेफ्ट कभी राइट करती हो। ख़ुफ़िया एजेंसी आईएसआई (ISI) तांगे को पिछे की ओर घसीट रही हो।

अमेरिका के एक सरकारी दफ्तर में जाओ। ड्राइविंग लाइसेंस लेने ही चले जाओ। रफ़्तार में काम हो जाता है। नेपाल भारत में बिजली का बिल देने जाओ। आप पैसे देने आये हो। फिर भी काम नहीं होता है। दफ्तर में लोग ऐसे बात करेंगे कि आप पैसे देने नहीं लेने आये हो। पाकिस्तान की राज्य व्यवस्था उससे भी दो कदम पिछे है। तो आप पाकिस्तान के प्रधान मंत्री पर शर्त डालें कि पहले अपने ब्यूरोक्रेसी को चुस्त दुरुस्त करें, लंदन वाशिंगटन जैसी एफिशिएंसी और कमांड लाबें नहीं तो बात ही नहीं करेंगे ये तो मुनासिब बात नहीं है।

पाकिस्तान के भितर कई ऐसे आतंकवादी संगठन हैं जो भारत पर भी धावा बोलते हैं और पाकिस्तान के अंदर भी विध्वंश मचाते हैं। आये दिन पाकिस्तान सेना पर ही अटैक। तो आप शर्त डालेंगे कि पहले आतंकवाद समाप्त करो फिर वार्ता हो सकती है ये तो बेतुकी बात हो गयी। अगर पाकिस्तान के प्रधान मंत्री के पास ये ताकत होती कि वो आतंकवाद समाप्त कर सकते तो वो क्या पहले पाकिस्तान के भितर समाप्त नहीं करते? आतंकवाद की बात छोडो। क्या आप मुंबई के भितर अपराध को समाप्त कर सकते हो? न्युन तो कर सकते हो। लेकिन क्या पुर्ण रूप से समाप्त कर सकते हो? अगर पाकिस्तान के प्रधान मंत्री शर्त डालें कि आप मुंबई के भितर अपराध को समाप्त करो तब ही वार्ता हो सकती है तो वार्ता होगी क्या?

आतंकवादी को मच्छर मानो। तो मच्छर के पिछे सारा दिन मत भागो। तालाब किधर है? पता करो। तो तालाब तो है काश्मीर। काश्मीर समस्या को समाधान कर दो। तालाब नदी बन जाएगी फिर आतंकवादी संगठन सबको मौका बहुत कम मिलेगा।

काश्मीर समस्या का समाधान क्या है? क्या काश्मीर भारतको मिलना चाहिए? पाकिस्तानको? क्या काश्मीर को अलग देश बना दिया जाए? नहीं। समस्या समाधान न करने के वो तीन तरिके हैं। समस्या का समाधान है लाइन ऑफ़ कण्ट्रोल को परमानेंट बॉर्डर बना दो। हो गया समाधान। उसके बाद बॉर्डर को धीरे धीरे डीमिलिटराइज़ करो। ट्रेड और ट्रांजिट धीरे धीरे बढ़ाओ। जिस तरह एक पंजाब इधर भी है और उधर भी उसी तरह एक कश्मीर ईंधर भी रहेगा और उधर भी।

इतना करने पर आतंकवाद का समस्या समाप्त तो नहीं होगा लेकिन बहुत हद तक समाधान हो जाएगा।

इमरान को पाकिस्तान सेना के तरफ से जो सम्मान प्राप्त है वो न भुट्टो बाप बेटी को प्राप्त था, न नवाज को। तो ये अच्छा मौका है। पाकिस्तान के साथ सफल वार्ता करने से भारत को बहुत फायदा है। अगर आप पाकिस्तान और भारत के बीच के लाइन ऑफ़ कण्ट्रोल को परमानेंट बॉर्डर बना देते हैं तो आपके हाथो में एक सफल फोर्मुला आ जाता है। वही फोर्मुला आप चीन भारत के बीच के बॉर्डर तक भी ले जा सकते हैं। जो कि दुनिया का सबसे लम्बा विवादित बॉर्डर है।

मैं तो कहुंगा वार्ता ही नहीं शिखर वार्ता करिए। जिस तरह रेगन और गोर्बाचेव करते थे। शिखर वार्ता एक। शिखर वार्ता दो। शिखर वार्ता तीन।

वार्ता विरोधी लोग दोनों तरफ हैं और दोनों तरफ वो अपनी अपनी रोटी सेकने का काम करते रहते हैं। भारत हाथ हथियार ख़रीदे तो बहुतो को फायदा हो जाता है। पाकिस्तान में भी वही बात है। फॉलो द मनी।

रिस्क तो है। दोनों तरफ है। तो रिस्क तो लेना पड़ता है। बगैर रिस्क लिए आपके हाथों नोबेल शांति पुरस्कार नहीं आने हैं। मोदी और इमरान वार्ता करके काश्मीर समस्या समाधान कर लें और शांति पुरस्कार ले लें।

लेकिन बात शांति पुरस्कार की नहीं है। बात गरीबी की है। जितने गरीब लोग भारत में हैं उतने अफ्रीका में नहीं। पाकिस्तान से सम्बन्ध नार्मल हो जाती है तो भारतको गरीबी के विरुद्ध लड़ने में आसानी हो जाएगी।

कहा जाता है, You don't make peace with friends, you make peace with enemies.



Imran Khan follows PM Modi's footsteps, asks countrymen to pay taxes Pakistan PM Imran Khan seems to be following Narendra Modi by asking his countrymen to pay their taxes and declare all "benami properties"
Imran Khan writes to Narendra Modi, offers talks to resolve all disputes
Modi 'nauseated' Imran, but would Rajiv have, too? how Khan was “nauseated” when he was suddenly asked to shake hands with Gujarat Chief Minister Narendra Modi at a public event in 2006. ..... “When Imran saw Modi, a feeling of nausea hit him as he took his seat on the panel. It was overpowering and worsened when, to his dismay, he noticed Modi sprinting towards him… The Gujarat Chief Minister stood right in front of him, and Imran tried to look away, but Modi wasn’t deterred. He took Imran’s hands and shook them warmly….” ...... Imran’s fears on being seen and photographed with Modi are similar to the kind of fears other secular politicians harbour when they have to break bread with Modi. Nitish Kumar came close to damaging his alliance with the BJP when Modi published a picture of him and Nitish together at an opposition rally. Nitish was offended enough to return Modi’s cheque for flood relief in Bihar....... When Anna Hazare talked about the achievements of Modi in Gujarat, there was a secular outcry against him. To redeem himself, Hazare had to go to Gujarat to proclaim that it was one of the most corrupt states. Clearly, when it comes to Modi, you have to feign disgust. ........ When Amitabh Bachchan was chosen as Gujarat Tourism’s brand ambassador, he was criticised as though he had personally supervised all the 2002 killings in Gujarat........ Imran Khan, Nitish Kumar, Anna Hazare and Ghulam Vastanvi can be forgiven for treating Modi as a pariah because they have their own constituencies to cater to. Imran Khan had no option but to be “nauseated” by Modi because a photograph flashed back home of him shaking hands with Modi could have damaged his career – not that it was going anywhere at that point of time......... India’s secular mafia have perpetrated a labelling system whereby any good word for Modi is like signing your political death warrant or sending in your resignation from the Good People’s Club. You will them be lumped with the Sangh parivar and labelled for life. You become a fascist. A card-carrying member of murderous Hindu mobs........ This is hypocrisy and illiberalism at its worst. For what it is worth, let me state upfront that what Modi did in 2002 (or did not do, ie, protect the minorities) was no worse than what Rajiv Gandhi did (or did not do) 18 years earlier.



Imran Khan Could Bring Peace
Narendra Modi And Imran Khan Should Solve Kashmir And Bag A Joint Nobel

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Wednesday, April 17, 2019

Imran Khan Could Bring Peace

The formula for peace in South Asia is simple. And the case for it is compelling. And Modi might find in Imran a partner that he sought in Nawaz but did not get. Nawaz simply did not command respect from the Pakistan Army. Imran does.

It was not realistic for Imran to expect Modi to play game before the elections in India. But once the elections are over, and Pakistan bashing has delivered the votes, Modi might want to finally reach out. It might start with an accidental bumping into Imran at some summit where the two might find themselves. And then things could snowball.

The attack in Kashmir that brought the subcontinent to the brink of war, ably defused by Imran by the simple release of an Indian pilot, might also be the event that pushed Modi to a renewed mandate. Looks like Modi will win and come back as Prime Minister. But nobody knows. Predicting elections in India is not a science.

Modi's BJP might be able to strike peace with Pakistan in ways the more socially moderate Congress Party might not. It often takes the hard right to make the compromises. Because there is no one to the right warning the people you might sell out.

The case is that it has been long enough. The solution is to accept the Line Of Control as the permanent border which, by the way, might also be the formula for the longest disputed border in the world, that between India and China.

Before the British came along there was no clear border between India and China. There was no line. The idea of the border as a line is a modern invention. Back then the border was a frontier. Nobody who crossed the frontier ever knew where India ended and China began. You trekked for hours through uninhabited land. Until you came to a settlement, it did not really matter what country you were in.

Recognizing the LOC as the permanent border would normalize relations between India and Pakistan. Kashmir might remain two, but then, hey, so does Punjab. But with a normal border, there might be trade, travel, and tourism between the two Kashmirs and the Kashmiris might experience normalcy after long decades. The two countries might be able to pull their armies from the border.

The tension is a political sinkhole. Political capital that should be going to issues like poverty go to a war that never happens, can not happen. It is stupid.

That India will get Pakistan occupied Kashmir is fiction. That Pakistan will get India occupied Kashmir is fiction. That Kashmir will become an independent country is fiction.

If Modi and Imran can bring permanent peace, they will win the Nobel Peace Prize. Modi wondered why he was not awarded the Nobel Peace Prize after he settled the border between India and Bangladesh. Well, nobody really knew there was a dispute there. But the whole world knows about the border dispute on the other side. Figure that out and win the Nobel.

Imran is on the Time 100 List this year. If he can work with Modi and bring peace, he will be Time Person Of The Year. Might as well. And 2019 will be 1992 all over again when he put Pakistan on the world map by winning the Cricket World Cup.

But the cover of Time magazine is less important. Even the Nobel is less important. What is truly important is peace will allow the two countries to truly tackle poverty.



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Monday, October 09, 2017

Women Wage Peace

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Tuesday, March 08, 2016

Mecca To Jerusalem

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Friday, August 07, 2015

Making Peace With Pakistan

How To Make Peace With Pakistan


  • Get engaged, stay engaged.
  • Keep expectations low, especially short term expectations. 
  • Expect setbacks. Use setbacks to better understand how the Pakistan Army, the ISI and non state actors try to undermine the Pakistani Prime Minister. 
  • Engage at multiple levels, not just with the Prime Minister. 
  • Appreciate their need to posture. They need that drama for their domestic audience. 
  • Talk to the Prime Minister, but also talk to the Pakistan Army directly. They are not a subservient but a parallel power center. 
  • Seek a trilateral intelligence sharing arrangement vis-a-vis the United States, especially on terrorism. Pakistan itself is a target. 
  • Help strengthen democracy inside Pakistan. Ultimately only a fully democratic Pakistan is capable of true and permanent peace with India. Until that day arrives, keep expectations in check. Expect slow progress and setbacks. 
  • Greater people to people contact would help. More trade will help. 
  • And if that happens between China and Pakistan, so be it. Think of that as dress rehearsal. Pakistan opening up is good news. It is a closed society. Russia is also a good one.
  • Muslim-Hindu per capita income parity is a domestic goal for India. Steps towards that goal would help. 
  • Peace is possible. Ultimately perhaps even a free trade area. 
  • Attempts of terrorist attacks will continue. There are plenty of non state actors inside Pakistan, but mostly globally, who would like to hurt India. It is a democracy thing. And there counter-terrorist acts is an area for the military experts. This is not traditional warfare. You have to speak the language they speak. You have to be able to counter their moves. Mostly you win if you are really good at intelligence. Intelligence sharing with governments goes a long way. 





































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