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Tuesday, January 19, 2016

US News (1)



Palin Endorsement Widens Trump’s Lead Among Idiots
“They’re both reality-show hosts,” he said. “And by lowering the bar in 2008, Palin singlehandedly made Trump’s candidacy possible.” ..... “Getting the idiots to support Trump is only half the battle,” the aide said. “Now we have to make sure that they make it to the caucuses without getting lost on the way.”


Hillary Feels The Bern
“Do I consider myself part of the casino-capitalist process, by which so few have so much and so many have so little, by which Wall Street’s greed and recklessness wrecked this economy?” Sanders said. “No, I don’t.” ...... when Sanders declared that America was “sick and tired of hearing about your damn e-mails,” making the uproar over Clinton’s private server sound ridiculous, she beamed. ......

Now the gap has narrowed to eight points.

..... Democratic voters under the age of forty-five prefer Sanders by a margin of about two to one ....... last week Sanders told CBS that he thought Clinton’s campaign was getting “very, very nervous.” ..... “Senator Sanders wants to dismantle Obamacare, dismantle the CHIP program, dismantle Medicare,” Chelsea said. That could “strip millions and millions and millions of people of their health insurance.” Politifact rated the assertion “mostly false.” Sanders has proposed a single-payer system that would automatically cover everyone. He calls it “Medicare for all,” which may be wildly impractical ...... the more extreme the Republicans appear the more plausible Sanders becomes. ..... For all his talk about breaking up the banks, he is less of a radical in the context of his party’s ideology than either Ted Cruz or Donald Trump is in theirs, and

he has a far longer and more traditional political résumé—mayor, congressman, senator—than any other candidate.

In polls of imagined general-election matchups, Sanders and Clinton both beat Trump. ........ We could have a radical from Brooklyn and a real-estate guy from Queens facing off in debates that would sound like nothing so much as an argument on the B41 bus as it barrels down Flatbush Avenue to Kings Plaza. ........

According to Merriam-Webster, “socialism” was the most looked-up term in its online dictionary in 2015. (The runner-up was “fascism.”)



The Populist Prophet
Bernie Sanders has spent decades attacking inequality. Now the country is listening.
Young people who like Bernie Sanders like him because he sounds like an old record. He’s been talking about the injustices done to working people by unequal income distribution for more than forty years. His voice, often hoarse from his habitually loud and impassioned speeches, even has the crackle of worn vinyl. ....... All the friends described Sanders as “authentic,” a word that many people would be hesitant to apply to Hillary Clinton. ...... Howard Dean was thrown off the national stage for being angry. But people like Trump because he’s an asshole and says whatever he wants.” Kiley’s friend Dawn York, who runs a vintage-clothing shop, said,

“Most candidates are robotic and rehearsed.” She saw “a real person in Bernie.”

........ among voters under the age of thirty, forty-nine per cent had a positive view of socialism. (Only forty-six per cent had a positive view of capitalism.) .......

younger voters “may not be willing to entertain a whole new system, but they are open to a pretty profound critique of the current one.

....... “many American institutions—Social Security, unions, Medicare, the postal service—have elements of socialism.” .......

“America today is the wealthiest country in the history of the world,” he declared. “But most people don’t know that, most people don’t feel that, most people don’t see that—because almost all of the wealth rests in the hands of a tiny few.”

......... He would like to break up the big banks, create jobs by rebuilding infrastructure, and move toward public funding of elections—and provide free tuition at public universities. ...... He wants to end the “international embarrassment of being the only major country on Earth which does not guarantee workers paid medical and family leave.” ....... Gutman told me, “I read a third of Piketty’s book. I don’t think Bernie would read a page of it.” ............ he was ardent in his admiration for Pope Francis, who has condemned the “economy of exclusion.” ....... He also understands the necessity of the selfie dance, maneuvering quickly into place and smiling briefly. Sanders does not excel, however, at the middle ground of casual, friendly conversation. He has no gift for anecdote. When talking to voters, Hillary Clinton has perfected the head-cocked semblance of keen interest; it’s clear when Sanders becomes bored.

Nelson told me, “Bernie’s the last person you’d want to be stuck on a desert island with. Two weeks of lectures about health care, and you’d look for a shark and dive in.”

Nelson has voted for him many times. ......... Message delivered—he didn’t want to meet anyone or eat anything or answer any questions. He was out of there.” .......

Tumblr is full of memes that play up the contrast between Sanders’s age and his popularity with hipsters.

....... “The sort of detached, post-Jon Stewart generation—they’re the ones putting inverted commas around what Bernie stands for. ‘Look at this grumpy old Jewish socialist from Brooklyn!’ It’s not cynical, though—they really believe in what he’s saying.” .......... she said that she had been thinking about “how refreshing it was to have someone point out to us that, as hardworking Americans, some things aren’t a privilege, they are a right. . . . I’m self-employed, I started my own business three and a half years ago, and my husband works full-time for Whole Foods—and we barely get by. We own a home, we both graduated from college, and we work more than forty hours a week, and we can barely put oil in our heating tanks in the winter. We have no savings and no way to financially handle any hiccups that may come our way. And I had to be reminded that it shouldn’t be that way.” ....... In June, when NPR’s David Greene pressed Sanders on whether he embraced the phrase “Black Lives Matter,” the Senator got irritated. “It’s too easy for quote-unquote liberals to be saying, ‘Well, let’s use this phrase,’ ” he said. “We need a massive jobs program to put black kids to work and white kids to work and Hispanic kids to work. So my point is, is that it’s sometimes easy to worry about which phrase you’re going to use. It’s a lot harder to stand up to the billionaire class.” .......... even made a joke: “I was the best and worst congressman Vermont had.” (Vermont has only one.) ........ a racial-justice platform that recommended police reform, federal funding for police body cameras, a ban on for-profit prisons, and the elimination of mandatory-minimum jail sentences. ....... proposes making Election Day a federal holiday ........ “When I talk about a political revolution, what I’m talking about is how we create millions of decent-paying jobs, how we reduce youth unemployment ........ growing up Jewish—less for the religious content than for the sense it imbued in him that politics mattered. ........ He went to public schools, including James Madison High School, an incubator of civic talent, from which Ruth Bader Ginsburg and Senator Chuck Schumer also graduated. He didn’t make the school’s championship basketball team—a deep disappointment—but he ran cross-country, and feels that this activity accounts for some of his formidable stamina today. ............... “I do know what it’s like when the electric company shuts off the electricity and the phone company shuts off the phone—all that stuff. So, for me, to talk to working-class people is not very hard.” .......

he took away a lesson: “An election in 1932 ended up killing fifty million people around the world.”

........ “if you talk about his Jewish identity, it’s strong. It’s certainly more ethnic and cultural than religious—except for his devotion to the ethical part of public life in Judaism, the moral part. ........ his friend would often greet him in the morning by saying, “We’re not crazy, you know,” referring to the anger they felt about social injustices. Sugarman would respond, “Could you say good morning first?” ...... Sanders attended Brooklyn College for a year, then transferred to the University of Chicago ....... Sanders was a “leader of the civil-rights movement on campus.” Sanders, who received a political-science degree in 1964, has said that he was a mediocre student because he found the classroom boring and irrelevant—and that he learned “infinitely more on the streets and in the community.” ......... had a carpentry business with a few other guys in New York. It was called Creative Carpentry, and Rader says that it was accurately named: “They advertised in the Village Voice, but didn’t know much about carpentry. They’d go to the hardware store to buy supplies, and ask the clerk how to do the repairs they’d been hired to do.” ........ Sanders wore his social conscience on his sleeve, but few people who knew him in the sixties and seventies would have predicted that he would become a leading candidate for the Democratic Presidential nomination. ....... People who knew Sanders when he was in his thirties tend to share stories about how broke and frugal he was. Rader told me that when Sanders first bought land in Vermont, and was still living part time in New York, he sometimes camped out in the new property’s only shelter: a maple-sugar shack. He had devised his own equivalent of Sterno, which his friends dubbed Berno. “It was a roll of toilet paper soaked in lighter fluid inside a coffee can,” Rader said. “He’d cook over that.” .......... he lost by an enormous margin. During the next ten years, he ran twice for senator and twice for governor, and never got more than six per cent of the vote. ...... “The difference between Bernie and most of the lefties is Bernie wants to win,” Garrison Nelson said.

“Most lefties don’t want to win, because if you win you sell out your purity.”

.......... Sanders was a thirty-nine-year-old man who didn’t own a suit. As Paula Routly told me, “Monied interests were shaking in their boots at first.” ....... True, he travelled to Nicaragua, where he met with Daniel Ortega and found a sister city for Burlington. (Vermont reporters dubbed the mayor and his coalition the Sandernistas.) But he also presided over economic development that transformed the city into a hipper, more forward-looking place—one of those small cities that appear on lists of the most livable. ......... “He got a lot done, but not through the art of gentle persuasion. Bernie’s style was top-down and confrontational.” Still, he was reëlected three times. ......... “I feel more, every day, that he can win. ........ a Quinnipiac University poll showing that, in a general-election contest against Donald Trump, Sanders would win by eight percentage points. .......

Vermont is a gun-friendly state: twenty-eight per cent of its residents own firearms, according to a recent survey, and it has some of the nation’s most permissive gun laws.

......... Sanders tends to present guns as an urban problem that Vermonters can afford not to worry about, though mass shootings can happen anywhere and suicides by gun are as much a problem in Vermont as they are in other states. ......... “I’m proud of my state, and I think I’m in a good position to try to bridge the gap between urban America—where guns mean one thing, where guns mean guns in the hands of kids who are shooting each other or shooting at police officers—and rural America, where significant majorities of people are gun owners, and ninety-nine per cent of them are lawful.” ......... “Bernie shows up in Washington in 1991, there’s still a chunk of Southerners in the Democratic caucus, and they do not want Bernie in the caucus.” Sanders didn’t help matters by giving more than one interview denouncing Congress. “This place is not working,” he told the Associated Press. “It is failing. Change is not going to take place until many hundreds of these people are thrown out of their offices.” He went on, “Congress does not have the courage to stand up to the powerful interests. I have the freedom to speak my mind.” ........... He was one of the founding members and the first chair of the Congressional Progressive Caucus, which has grown steadily over the years, from six members in 1991 to seventy-one today. ......... He was reëlected to the House seven times. And his ascent to the Senate, in 2006, was stunning: he trounced the Republican candidate, Richard Tarrant, one of the wealthiest men in the state, by thirty-three percentage points. ......... People here like him making a lot of noise in Washington for a little state—they’re happy to send a human hand grenade down there.” But they don’t necessarily want Sanders running the state .......... “Negotiating with Bernie was not a usual experience, because he is very passionate and he and I are both very strong-willed people, and we spend a lot of time banging our fists on the table and having the occasional four-letter word. But at the end of the day Bernie was result-oriented.” ........... He successfully made an amendment to the Affordable Care Act which allotted eleven billion dollars for community-health centers to provide primary care regardless of patients’ ability to pay. .........

in the most recent fund-raising cycle donations to his campaign were neck and neck with Clinton’s

........ in a recent YouGov/CBS News poll Sanders is leading Clinton by twenty-two percentage points in New Hampshire and ten in Iowa. But the picture in South Carolina is quite different: there Clinton is twenty-three points ahead. ....... “There is a reason why Wall Street and all of corporate America likes immigration reform,” he said at an event held by the United States Hispanic Chamber of Commerce in July. “It is not, in my view, that they are staying up nights worrying about undocumented workers in this country. What I think they are interested in is seeing a process by which we can bring low-wage labor of all levels into this country, to depress wages in America.” ........ Clinton, “She’s not worried about Bernie. But she is worried about the Bernie effect—which is to demonstrate her relative weaknesses as a candidate. He hits at her Achilles’ heel, which is authenticity.” ........

sixty-six per cent of Americans feel that “money and wealth in this country should be more evenly distributed”; seventy-one per cent favor raising the minimum wage, at least slightly; and seventy-four per cent believe that corporations exert too much influence on American politics and life.

......... nearly half of Americans are “strong redistributionists, in the sense that they believe the distribution of wealth and income is not fair, and endorse heavy taxes on the rich as a way of redistributing wealth.” ........ The American electorate seems to respond simultaneously to calls for redistributive justice and the rejection of the entity most likely to accomplish it: the federal government. And many voters might feel that matters of economic fairness are trumped by such social issues as abortion and guns. ......... Unlike many liberal élites, Sanders does not seem to prefer talking to people who share his views; because he is not an especially convivial person, he does not require conviviality from others. Sanders relishes the opportunity to enter enemy territory, where he believes that he can find secret allies. .......... He did not make knowing jokes about these differences: as usual, Sanders was dead serious. The students were poker-faced but polite. ....... Unlike his slicker rivals, Sanders is most at ease talking about the moral and ethical dimensions of politics. “We are living in a nation and in a world—the Bible speaks to this issue—in a nation and in a world which worships not love of brothers and sisters, not love of the poor and the sick, but worships the acquisition of money and great wealth.” ........ Staring at the crowd, he quoted the Hebrew Bible, his fist punctuating nearly every word: “Let justice roll on like a river, righteousness like a never-failing stream.”


The Inevitability Trap
Hillary Clinton and the drawbacks of being the front-runner.
“It’s really hard for me to express how grateful I am, on behalf of my husband and myself, to the people of New Hampshire,” Clinton said. “Starting way back in 1991, you opened your homes and your hearts to us. And in 2008, during the darkest days of my campaign, you lifted me up, you gave me my voice back, you taught me so much about grit and determination, and I will never forget that.” ........ In national surveys this year, Clinton’s support among Democrats has been as high as seventy-three per cent. That makes her the most dominant front-runner at this stage of a Presidential contest in the Party’s modern history. .....

The press, invested in political drama, declares that the front-runner is vulnerable.

....... In 1984, Walter Mondale, Jimmy Carter’s Vice-President, loomed over the Democratic field much as Clinton does now. ........ Although Dean built a large following, he couldn’t organize it. ....... “In some ways I got captivated by my own campaign,” Dean told me. He found it impossible to make the ideological and stylistic shifts that might have transformed him from insurgent into front-runner. “The problem with running against somebody like Hillary—or my problem running against Kerry—is that, when you make the turn, then you disappoint all your followers.” ......... But Obama had a sophisticated plan to get them to the polls. These three ingredients—message, demographics, and organization—were just enough to defeat Clinton in the primaries. For the first time in modern history, a Democratic insurgency defeated the establishment. ........ Historically, the longer a party remains in power, the more emboldened its activist base becomes. Many liberals are frustrated with Obama’s inability to enact more progressive change, such as assertive policies against global warming and income inequality, comprehensive immigration reform, or a less hawkish foreign policy. Democratic-primary voters are always eager to see a fresh potential candidate. ........ Clinton can’t present herself as a novelty. She’ll be sixty-nine on Election Day in 2016 and has been a national figure for a quarter century. The last politician to become President after a similarly long and distinguished career was George H. W. Bush. Since then, the office has been won by relative newcomers: Bill Clinton, George W. Bush, and Obama. “The one time in my political life that we’ve gone back a generation was Carter to Reagan,” Dean said. “Once you change the page on generations, you don’t go back.” He added that Clinton could be the exception. ......... The Hart campaign’s organizational failure was an education for O’Malley. “It was like a ‘Lion, the Witch and the Wardrobe’ experience for me,” O’Malley said. “I walked into the wardrobe, I got about twenty years of adult experience in management and being under deadlines and high pressure, and then I came back and I was still twenty-one.” ........ He applied his data-driven techniques to crime, and Baltimore’s murder rate plummeted to below three hundred per year for the first time in a decade. ......... O’Malley told me that Obama’s response to the 2008 financial crisis was too timid: “When the Recovery and Reinvestment Act was introduced, it was probably half of what it needed to be, and the congressional parts of our own party watered it down to a half of that, which meant

it was about a quarter of what it needed to be

.” And Obama was too soft on Wall Street, O’Malley said. “The moment was ripe for much more aggressive action.

If an institution is too big to fail, too big to jail, too big to prosecute, then it’s probably too damn big.”

........... Michael Podhorzer, the political director at the A.F.L.-C.I.O., said, “What we learned from the Obama Administration is that if the Presidential candidate surrounds themself with the usual Wall Street suspects, then, whatever the populist rhetoric is, that’s not going to be good enough.” ......... O’Malley had a tightly scheduled day of events ahead and he ordered the No. 5:

scrambled eggs, bacon, hash browns, toast, pancakes, and coffee.

....... The Clintons and Obama have championed policies that help the poor by strengthening the safety net, but they have shown relatively little interest in structural changes that would reverse runaway income inequality. “There is a big tendency among a lot of Democratic leaders to feed some raw meat to the public on smaller issues that excite them, like the minimum wage, but don’t really address the larger problem,” Webb said. ...........

the prison population in the U.S. exploded after the Clinton Administration signed tough new sentencing laws.

........ “This incredible strategic blunder of invading caused the problems, because it allowed the breakup of Iraq along sectarian lines at the same time that Iran was empowering itself in the region.” ........ Webb also disdains liberals who advocate military intervention without understanding the American military. Referring to Syria and Libya, Webb said, “I was saying in hearings at the time, What is going to replace it?

What is going to replace the Assad regime?

These are tribal countries. Where are all these weapons systems that Qaddafi had? Probably in Syria. Can you get to the airport at Tripoli today? Probably not. It was an enormous destabilizing impact with the Arab Spring.” ..........

ong wisps of Sanders’s white hair levitated above his head, as if he were conducting electricity.

....... “We look at the United Kingdom and their queens, their dukes, and whatever else they have, and say, ‘Well, that is a class society, that’s not America.’ Well, guess what? We have more income and wealth inequality in this country than the U.K. and any other major country on earth.” It was time “for a political revolution.” ........ “The Clinton Administration worked arm in arm with Alan Greenspan—who is, on economic matters, obviously, an extreme right-wing libertarian—on deregulating Wall Street, and that was a total disaster,” Sanders said. “And then you had the welfare issue, trade policies. You had the Defense of Marriage Act.” ....... He said that the George W. Bush Presidency “will go down in history as certainly the worst Administration in the modern history of America.” But he has also been disappointed by Obama. “I have been the most vocal opponent of him in the Democratic Caucus,” he told me. In his view, Obama should have kept the grass roots of his 2008 campaign involved after he was elected, and he should have gone aggressively after Wall Street. “His weakness is that either he is too much tied to the big-money interests, or too quote-unquote nice a guy to be taking on the ruling class.” .......... “I didn’t know that they could track back everything you had ever said,” Sanders told me. “That did not use to be the case. You could certainly get away with a lot of stuff—not anymore!” ........

“If I was a billionaire, if I was a Ross Perot type, absolutely, I’d run as an independent. Because there is now profound anger at both political parties. But it takes a huge amount of money and organizational time to even get on the ballot in fifty states.”

......... “I think it’s a very deep dissatisfaction with the political establishment.” He insisted that he would run a serious campaign against her, not just “an educational campaign” about his pet issues. “If I run, I certainly would run to win.” ....... the first fought by Democrats since the Supreme Court opened the door for individuals to spend unlimited sums of money on an election.

Trump 2016: Hurting People's Feelings

Feelings (David Byrne album)
Feelings (David Byrne album) (Photo credit: Wikipedia)
So far I have not seen any kind of political program from Trump, even programs I might dislike, possibly even abhor. He is not planning to cut taxes. He is not planning to invade a country. So far all the talk has been about enticing certain feelings. Vague feelings like xenophobia. He just wants the power. He is not seeking to govern. That is the impression I get. More like, he is offended he, or someone like he, is not in power. And this guy was not even a Republican, until last year. If Britain holds a debate in parliament about banning a white guy from entering the country, you know this is a new century. We are looking at a new reality here. The kind of psychological warfare he is engaging in is the kind that trolls engage in online. And they win because they have the numbers. When the Internet came about, Julia Robert discovered people hated her. Muslims are the new Julia Roberts, if Trump will have his way. If Trump is a troll, he is just one person. If more people find out he exists, I expect him to get mauled on places like Twitter. It will be one troll versus millions of trolls. It will be an unfair race. 

I Wish The 2016 Race Were Laser Focused On The Fourth Industrial Revolution

The First Industrial Revolution used water and steam power to mechanize production. The Second used electric power to create mass production. The Third used electronics and information technology to automate production. Now a Fourth Industrial Revolution is building on the Third, the digital revolution that has been occurring since the middle of the last century. It is characterized by a fusion of technologies that is blurring the lines between the physical, digital, and biological spheres. ....... There are three reasons why today’s transformations represent not merely a prolongation of the Third Industrial Revolution but rather the arrival of a Fourth and distinct one: velocity, scope, and systems impact. The speed of current breakthroughs has no historical precedent. When compared with previous industrial revolutions, the Fourth is evolving at an exponential rather than a linear pace. Moreover, it is disrupting almost every industry in every country. And the breadth and depth of these changes herald the transformation of entire systems of production, management, and governance.

Chelsea Clinton

for college, she opted to go to Stanford, at the far edge of the continent, and immerse herself in the subculture of tech rather than politics. After grad school at Oxford, she tried on a variety of non-political jobs—consulting, finance—before doing a second stint in grad school. She even flirted with a career in journalism (which must have given her media-hating mother such a migraine). But after that flurry of activity, where did she land? Neck-deep in the family business, running her father’s foundation and immersing herself in her mother’s presidential dreams. .......... Such choices have not been made without ambivalence. “It is frustrating, because who wants to grow up and follow their parents?” Chelsea told Fast Company in 2014. “I’ve tried really hard to care about things that were very different from my parents.”..........But the Clinton gravitational pull is strong. And, her many talents notwithstanding, there is arguably no job for which Chelsea is more qualified—or, for now, more needed—than professional daughter...................But woe be unto her mom’s campaign if she behaves like your typical political veteran and picks any more fights.


This barb actually strikes me as sound political instincts. I have not been following the campaign too closely, but I read up some yesterday, and I also feel, if Bernie is vulnerable, it actually is on health care. The best thing Dems can do for now is protect Obamacare, not redo it. That is what is politically most viable. And if this was an unscripted moment for Chelsea, respect. If America could go the Canada route, Obama would have gone for it. It is out of deep appreciation for the peculiarities of American political culture that Obamacare was shaped.

Monday, January 18, 2016

Chinese Economy Troubles

I believe China has reached a point where there is no way to avoid fundamental political reform. Either that, or the economy pays a price. But I don't see the reforms coming.

Can a state become so powerful in terms of military strength, police force, surveillance, and the size of the national economy, that it becomes immune to democratic reform or impulses? I don't believe that for a second.

Democracy emanates from a different dimension from all that physicality. It is only a matter of time before China opens up. Right now it does not look like the Chinese Communist Party wants to be that vehicle. And mass uprising is nowhere in the cards. So that leaves the option that the CCP is willing to say goodbye to double digit growth rates forever to keep its hold on power. The thing is, I am not sure the CCP is in grips even with that 7% growth rate. The turbulence could easily go out of hand. There's the slowing growth and the massive pollution.

My two favorite desires for China are (1) let the Dalai Lama in, and (2) beam broadband down from Elon Musk's internet satellites.

China is doing some good infrastructure work in places like Pakistan and Africa. So it's a mixed picture.

China’s Search For Dissidents Has Now Expanded to Foreign Countries
Since taking office in late November, President Xi has cracked down on dissent, locking up hundreds of free-thinkers and cementing his reputation as China’s most powerful leader in decades. Everyone from the nation’s top female lawyer to a moderate Muslim academic has been swept up. Most have been jailed on what human-rights experts consider suspect charges, either oversized crimes like subversion of state power or seemingly unconnected infractions such as disturbing traffic.

Xi’s campaign feels both brutal and brittle—a powerful ruling party spooked by a collection of unarmed poets, feminists and lawyers, few of whom are calling for an end to communist rule.

Xi may have come to power vowing to strengthen China’s commitment to rule of law but on Monday a group of high-profile foreign lawyers and heads of bar associations directly criticized the Chinese President for intimidating or detaining hundreds of Chinese lawyers, along with their staff and families......... Previously dissidents felt safe overseas but Beijing’s dragnet has expanded abroad to include both Chinese and Chinese-born foreign citizens. Panic is setting in among communities that once considered foreign soil safe ground. “I thought once I escaped China I would be safe,” says one Chinese dissident who was smuggled to Thailand last year and

is now being tailed by unknown Mandarin-speaking men as she waits in Bangkok

for a UNHCR hearing to determine whether she will be classified as a political refugee. “If I disappear tomorrow, you will have no doubt about who took me. The [Chinese] Communist Party is too powerful.” ...... That was the last sighting of the publisher of around half of the pulp political thrillers available in Hong Kong. Indeed, Mighty Media’s books are so popular that Asian airports stock them in prime display spaces, although spot checks at Chinese customs can get the books’ new owners in trouble. ....... Last week, the Swedish government summoned the Chinese and Thai ambassadors to answer questions about Gui’s disappearance from Thailand. ...

Chinese dissidents, particularly those in Thailand, are also nervous, given the recent deportation of the two Chinese activists, one of whom dabbled in caricatures of President Xi.

Beijing’s Overseas Kidnapping
A bookseller taken in Thailand ‘confesses’ on China state television.
Mr. Lee is a British citizen whose abduction from Hong Kong would represent an “egregious breach” of China’s treaty promises concerning civil liberties in the former British colony, Britain’s Foreign Secretary Philip Hammond said this month. China’s Foreign Minister Wang Yi replied, in a preview of Mr. Gui’s confession, that Mr. Lee is “first and foremost a Chinese citizen.” ...... When reports of the missing booksellers surfaced, some speculated that rogue Chinese agents could have mounted a snatch-and-grab campaign without approval from higher-ups in Beijing. Mr. Gui’s televised confession suggests official knowledge and complicity. The cases represent an escalation of China’s assaults on journalism, the autonomy of Hong Kong and the rights of overseas Chinese who are citizens of other sovereign nations.


How to Discipline 90 Million People
Can China's president reform the world's largest one-party state by reforming its officials?
China’s extensive crackdown on government corruption, which has already ensnared hundreds of thousands of officials in the People’s Republic, is now spilling over the country’s borders. The State Department recently confirmed that China’s legal authorities had provided a list of 150 corrupt Chinese officials believed to be hiding in the United States, and vowed cooperation to help extradite them. That announcement came amid rumors that China’s anti-corruption czar, Wang Qishan, would visit the U.S. sometime this year, ostensibly to lead the chase overseas to catch China’s government crooks and their ill-gotten gains. ............ No one is immune, not even Communist Party leaders who once seemed untouchable. Just last Friday, Zhou Yongkang, the former security chief and retired Politburo Standing Committee member, became the highest-ranking party official to be indicted under the effort, following his arrest last December. Top military officials have come under investigation, and there are rumors a former vice president could be next. ....... State propaganda refers to the strategy as “killing tigers and swatting flies,” where the tigers are the powerful and the flies the petty officials. .......

a larger strategy to reform the very political culture of the Chinese Communist Party.

...... re-establishing the CCP’s authority over its nearly 90 million members ......... The central government can issue laws and formulate policy, but given factionalism and competition for power among officials at all levels, it has struggled to get the rank and file to implement those policies or uphold those laws. Local governments, for example, often collude with businesses to enrich themselves at the expense of the people, soliciting backlash in the form of mass protest and social unrest, and threatening the party’s power. ....... Now, with manufacturing jobs moving to Southeast Asia and growth slowing to its weakest rate in two and a half decades, Xi has publicly spoken of the need to “actively restructure the economy.” ....... Reform, however, requires the ability to enact policy. That in turn necessitates bureaucrats who follow the central government’s orders. Two common ways to deliver this kind of accountability in the modern world are through

direct democracy and an independent judiciary

. But Xi has flat-out rejected these institutional measures. ....... an apparent effort, unprecedented in the modern world, to transform the people who make up the state, rather than the structure of the state itself. He appears to be betting that transforming the moral character of officials will enable him to leave intact the institutional structure of the one-party state. But is such a feat even possible? ....... Modern-day state-building efforts in the Middle East and Africa have confirmed much of Xunzi’s thought. It is not enough to set up independent courts or to hold elections. .........

Chinese politics today exhibits a pervasive culture of patronage, factionalism, and cronyism. Or, as Xi put it in a speech in 2013, excessive bureaucratization, hedonism, and use of public funds and position for personal advancement and pleasure.

...... regulations require the official to report if he or she is to remarry or divorce, and to give reasons and justifications for the decision. ...... A 1940s rule against graft, for example, helped garner popular support for the CCP to win the civil war against the decrepit and corrupt Nationalist government; it is this rule that has been revived today to help clean up official corruption, no doubt with popular support similarly in mind. ....... Given the leadership’s apparent determination to maintain the party’s dominance, however, it is not surprising that Xi has placed the burden of reform on the officials themselves rather than the political structure they inhabit. ....... Xi may be able to avoid major institutional reforms by changing the political culture. But transforming the way government is run requires greater discussion about how government is run, and giving officials—especially lower- and mid-level officials—a greater voice. So far, Xi is only dealing with half the problem.
The opening up of Iran will mean a return to barbarity as usual
As for Iran, with the nuclear programme gone, and its iconic American prisoners released, normal levels of barbarity can now be resumed. ..... First, there is the ordinary repression: convicts – two-thirds of them drug dealers or drug users according to the UN – were being executed at the rate of three per day last year, the highest per-capita execution rate in the world. Then there’s the suppression of trade unions. Iran arrested 233 labour activists in the year to May 2015. All strikes and labour agitation are treated as threats to national security by the Revolutionary Guards, the hardline military force that enforces Islamic discipline at home while spearheading military operations abroad. Finally, there is the outright political repression that has left two presidential candidates from the “green” protests of 2009 – Mehdi Karroubi and Mir Hossein Mousavi – under house arrest, and hundreds of other human rights activists, lawyers, journalists and scientists detained. ....... With Bush, for eight years, we at least understood the deranged intent: destroy Saddam Hussein’s regime and let market forces rule. When market forces failed to rule, and al-Qaida filled the gap ........

Bush’s eight-year adventure in the Gulf could be described as a spectacular unravelling

...... Iranians took to the streets in 2009 in the first of the new-style networked protests. The movement that began in Tunisia in December 2010, swept Mubarak from office in Egypt a month later, set Bahrain on fire, deposed Gaddafi and provoked Assad into a murderous onslaught on his own people, was not in the US State Department’s script – no matter how many times supporters of these dictatorships claim it. ........

It was, fundamentally, the entry of the educated and networked youth into the politics of the Middle East that disoriented Obama.

...... even as you deal with dictators, and watch a shabby regional order emerge, you must support democracy and human rights everywhere – above all in Iran, whose young, educated population is still crying out for them.


Iran's hardliners will block economic reform
The lifting of sanctions coupled with the release of up to $100bn in frozen Iranian assets as part of the nuclear agreement will reinvigorate the Iranian economy, removing a significant obstacle to growth. Nonetheless, the road to economic development remains rocky due to highly inefficient state-controlled enterprises and the lack of transparency resulting in high levels of corruption, as evidenced by Transparency International placing the country as low as 136 out of 175 countries on its Corruption Perceptions Index based on “how corrupt a country’s public sector is perceived to be”. ........ The World Bank ranks Iran at 118, way down the list, on ‘ease of doing business’. ..... The Rouhani administration is attempting to change this by pushing for robust economic reforms, seeking to pull the Iranian economy out of isolation into a global market and to attract much needed investment from abroad. He says he wants to change a situation where Iran’s exports are almost entirely hydrocarbon commodities and where it is conducting import substitution as a policy to protect state-owned and quasi-state owned enterprises. ........ The hardliners seek an Iran that is highly authoritarian under a resistance ideology closing the country to the rest of the world, and a regional posture that is more militaristic than diplomatic. ......

On the opposite side of the spectrum, the bazaaris and the moderate camp seek an Iran driven by economic liberalisation, a loosened security state that is more conducive to foreign investment, a less militaristic regional posture that is better for trade, and a non-resistance ideology that is open to globalisation.

....... he will need to take a friendlier regional posture, which would be difficult given the current rivalry with Iran’s Arab neighbour, including Saudi Arabia, and Turkey, which is seen most intensely in the conflict in Iraq and Syria ...... part of the political capital needed for economic reform is diverted to conflict and conflict-rhetoric. ...... Iran remains an authoritarian state that is disproportionately driven by hardliners. ...... economic growth will increase from 3% in 2015 to 5% in 2016. .....

Iran’s most valuable asset – its highly educated labour force ....

....... The lack of economic reform will continue to place a heavy toll on the middle class and particularly its underemployed youth. Rising expectations will have to be met and increasing oil revenue, with sanctions lifted, will be enough for the economy to grow without forcing the issue of reform. This can end up providing more incentives not to reform the economy. ....... oil in particular can enhance inequality through the ‘Dutch disease’, in which currency inflow from the sale of hydrocarbons makes other products less competitive for export, so weakening manufacturing and increasing prices for consumers.
How to succeed in Iran: lessons from Russia and China
The economy in the Islamic republic is still largely state-owned, with much of its ‘privatised’ capital in the hands of regime-affiliated organisations
the lessons from the economies of the crumbled Soviet Union circa 1991 or gaizhi-era China over a decade later: strengthen your legal team, treat trust like a commodity, and beware of cephalopods. ...... Since the administration of economically pragmatic President Akbar Hashemi Rafsanjani, Iranian governments have attempted to sell large portions of the mostly state-owned economy to “the real private sector.” But after trying out a range of ideological strategies and transferring large volumes of capital, over 80% of it ended up in the tentacles of organizations linked to the regime: banks, military enterprises, religious foundations, pension funds and populism-driven welfare projects ...... foreign investors will have to reckon with around 120 pseudo-private entities that by the estimates of former deputy industry minister Mohsen Safai Farahani account for half the country’s gross domestic product. .......

the underlying culture is not likely to change anytime soon. Nor is the country’s closed political structure.”

....... Most international banks are unlikely to touch Iran-based transactions as long as the sanctions on the country’s financial system remain in place, so companies like Chinese computer manufacturer Lenovo or French carmaker Renault rely on oil-for-product swaps and other types of barter. While these measures help meet the immediate needs of a consumer market starved for foreign products, the involved firms are often slated by the Iranian press for cutting disadvantageous deals that hinder the country’s long-term economic prospects. ...... Andreas Schweitzer, CEO of the Swiss-Iranian consultancy Arjan Capital, says

he employs a disproportionately large legal team to address the “special circumstances” of the Iranian business environment. “You have to look at Iran as a Chinese or Russian economy that is highly state-owned,” he says.

.... “You have to adjust a bit to the geopolitical weather,” he says. ...... To succeed in Iran, Schweitzer recommends raising capital locally and taking advantage of existing infrastructure and expertise. Ideally, the only imports should be upper management and know-how, he says. ...... “Like the Chinese, the Iranians love western brands ..... After years of isolation from international trends, Iranian workers lack the skills to fill middle and upper management positions. “If you needed in Russia 20 years ago 16 interviews to fill one job, you’re looking at double that in Iran,” Schweitzer says. .......

and the regime will silence hardline opponents of the nuclear deal by handing them the crumbs.”

Iran Opens for Business

Some people cannot stand good news. It troubles their fixed view of the world.

These would include Senator Marco Rubio, the Republican presidential candidate, and Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu of Israel, who were cast into a huff by the confirmed reversal of Iran’s nuclear program and its release of several Americans, including Jason Rezaian of The Washington Post. ............ Toughness is no more than empty aggression when it will not admit to misjudgment.

Diplomacy delivers.

..... Rezaian is coming home after a year and a half of groundless imprisonment. ...... Its advanced centrifuges have been slashed from over 1,000 to zero. Its low-enriched uranium stockpile has been cut to 660 pounds from over 19,000. ...... The plutonium route to a bomb has been cut off. Iran is subject to what President Obama called “the most comprehensive, intrusive inspection regime ever negotiated to monitor a nuclear program.” The country’s “break-out” time — the period needed to rush for a bomb — has been extended to a year from two to three months. ......

The trauma-induced Iranian-American psychosis, ongoing since the birth of the Islamic Republic in 1979, has been overcome. .... The world’s 18th-largest economy is about to rejoin the world at a time when the sinking global economy sure could use a jolt.

...... Iran is much further from a nuclear weapon because of the courageous diplomacy of Obama and Kerry and Zarif and the Iranian president, Hassan Rouhani, who all confronted hostile constituencies at home to get the deal done. ...... A big nation is open for business again, back in the global financial system and world oil market. ......

Revolutionary Guard hard-liners have not drunk the Kool-Aid at the Rouhani-Zarif school of diplomacy.

...... Iran, 37 years from its revolution, is delicately poised between hard-liners and reformers, neither of whom can dictate the country’s course, each of whom need the other for now. Imminent parliamentary elections may indicate which camp is ascendant. ......

it is hard to argue that greater contact with the world will be bad for the large, modernizing, highly educated younger generation. Iran is a pro-American country with a tired anti-American refrain. It has a successful diaspora community ready to help revive the country — if allowed to do so.

...... The breakthrough with Iran is Obama’s greatest foreign policy achievement, one that may have a transformative effect on the region. ..... That potential is what has American allies from Saudi Arabia to Israel so perturbed. They preferred the status quo. .....

The country is not “an oil-soaked rentier state,” like some of its neighbors, but a “regional power with an industrial economy”

...... Its population of 80 million is well-educated, its oil and gas reserves enormous. The country’s pent-up need for foreign investment may amount to $1 trillion. Iran, it concluded, is “preparing for takeoff.” .... Try saying the word Iran without saying the word “nuclear.” It’s time.
As Iran hails a historic deal, Saudi Arabia looks on with anxiety and irritation
The lifting of sanctions against the Saudis’ longtime enemy, in part pursued by its US ally, is the latest episode in a centuries-old narrative of mistrust
it watched with anxiety and irritation as Barack Obama pursued the historic agreement, complaining of the appeasement of an untrustworthy enemy at the expense of a loyal American ally. ..... the notion that Tehran controls three Arab capitals, as well as exerting subversive influence in Sunni-ruled but Shia-majority Bahrain and in Yemen, both in Saudi Arabia’s backyard. ......

“The Saudis talk about poor starving Syrians but never about poor starving Yemenis,” quipped a foreign observer. “And it’s the same, in reverse, with the Iranians.”

..... the feeling that for all their wealth the Saudis have nothing to match Iran’s highly-developed covert capabilities. ...... “[Ayatollah Ali] Khamenei traded a bomb he didn’t have for a document that gave his IRGC carte blanche in [the]region, and stripped the P5 + 1 [UN security council members and Germany] of any leverage over Iran,” said the Saudi analyst Mohammed Alyahya. ...... Jubeir, an articulate spokesman for his country, has

a clever line about Iran needing to decide whether it is a country or a cause

– a reminder that the Islamic Revolution of 1979 was indeed a watershed for the entire Middle East. In the west the perception is that Iran is becoming a post-revolutionary society seeking normality and moderation at home and abroad, despite still being ruled by a theocratic supreme leader. The Saudis flatly reject that view.
When China Stumbles
The basic problem is that China’s economic model, which involves very high saving and very low consumption, was only sustainable as long as the country could grow extremely fast, justifying high investment. This in turn was possible when China had vast reserves of underemployed rural labor. But that’s no longer true, and China now faces the tricky task of transitioning to much lower growth without stumbling into recession. ....... rapidly rising debt, much of it owed to poorly regulated “shadow banks,” and a threat of financial meltdown. ...... the Chinese situation looks fairly grim — and new numbers have reinforced fears of a hard landing, leading not just to a plunge in Chinese stocks but to sharp declines in stock prices worldwide. ...... Yes, China is a big economy, accounting in particular for about a quarter of world manufacturing, so what happens there has implications for all of us. And China buys more than $2 trillion worth of goods and services from the rest of the world each year. But it’s a big world, with a total gross domestic product excluding China of more than $60 trillion. ...... while

China itself is in big trouble

, the consequences for the rest of us should be manageable. ...... Europe and the United States export to each other only a small fraction of what they produce, yet they often have recessions and recoveries at the same time. Financial linkages may be part of the story, but one also suspects that there is

psychological contagion: Good or bad news in one major economy affects animal spirits in others.

........ my best guess is still that things won’t be that bad —

nasty in China, but just a bit of turbulence elsewhere.

And I really, really hope that guess is right, because we don’t seem to have a plan B anywhere in sight.

The Bernie Fuss

I have yet to watch a debate, Democratic or Republican, but by now I am curious as what the Bernie fuss is all about. And so I picked a few YouTube clips from my Google News page.



I am for breaking big banks. This is like breaking up Mama Bell to bring the phone call prices down. If a bank is too big to fail, it is too big. Break it up. We need FinTech startups like we need startups every other sector. Banks don't need buildings no more. We need a new era of financial innovation.

To me this is not some commie worldview. This is rabid capitalism. C for capitalism, c for competition. There is no capitalism without competition. But then the special interests capitalism has its own ideas.

One way to break big banks would be to let many, many players do the last mile. But keep the basic protection of deposits sacrosanct. It works for internet access. Some big players might own the big pipes, but the last mile is open to competition by law.

On climate change, create a new county in an uninhabited part of Arizona that will have nothing but solar panels.

Create another county for a million Syrian refugees.

Create food stamps for every interested person, you only get fruits and vegetables. The idea is to save a trillion dollars a year. It is the budget deficit no one is talking about.

New York City's free gigabit WiFi plan will earn the city 500 million a year. Why can't that go national? Turn every phone booth in the country into a WiFi station.

How the media missed Bernie Sanders
Bernie Sanders, the man who is leading in New Hampshire and giving Hillary Clinton a run for her money in Iowa, is coming to terms with a new reality: The media is taking him seriously. ..... like a certain senator before him, he draws far larger crowds, boasts a remarkably enthusiastic volunteer base, and, though he doesn't have as much money as Clinton, set an all-time record with more than 2.3 million campaign contributions last year. ...... the mainstream media is racing to catch up to a phenomenon that has been abundantly clear to backers, donors and the progressive media for nine months. ...... the oft-repeated claim that Donald Trump's latest incendiary claim was political suicide. ...... When Sanders announced his bid, a Washington Post profile described the "unlikely presidential candidate" as "an ex-hippie, septuagenarian socialist from the liberal reaches of Vermont who rails, in his thick Brooklyn accent, rumpled suit and frizzy pile of white hair, against the 'billionaire class' taking over the country." The New York Times — which had afforded its front page to similar candidacy announcements from Clinton, Donald Trump, Ted Cruz and others — buried the Sanders story on page 21. .......

Sanders, however, immediately began drawing thousands of supporters, and then tens of thousands, to his rallies.

...... Local media, which he said did a much better job of focusing on policy over process; and the progressive media — but neither of those could rival the overwhelming national narrative that Sanders was merely an also-ran. ....... "Among 'big-time' reporters, there's an almost pathological fear of looking unsophisticated," one veteran political reporter explained. "Journalists are supposed to look 'wised-up' and with it. I think this ingrained tendency often causes us to miss things that should be as plain as the noses on our faces — and that are apparent to 'civilians.'" .....

Now that Sanders is a real contender in some early states, he is forcing the media to recognize the vast liberal base that exists to the left of the Democratic establishment, much as the rise of the tea party forced the press to focus on the vast conservative base to the right of the Republican establishment.

...... "The media has an instinctive bias against ultra-liberals. The real hard liberals are not taken seriously by our tribe," he said. "No socialist from Vermont is going to be president, in the same way Howard Dean was written off." ...... "We knew Hillary was going to win, and we went chasing after Donald Trump." ..... on ABC evening news, Trump over a period of time got 81 minutes of time. Bernie Sanders got 20 seconds," Sanders said in an interview with CNN's Chris Cuomo in December. "Now, you tell me why." ..... although he still trails badly in national polls, including one by NBC released Sunday that found Clinton with a 25-point edge ..... "I've never been in an avalanche, but I'm beginning to think I know what it feels like," Michael Briggs, Sanders' spokesperson, said of the media requests he was receiving. ......

Pfeiffer argued that Sanders is still "a very long shot to win the nomination" and likened him not to Barack Obama but to Howard Dean or Bill Bradley: "Anti-establishment candidates with a strong base in the largely white, progressive community who can do very well in Iowa and New Hampshire with no clear path to expanding their base."



U.K. Parliament debate: Donald Trump gets pummeled by the British
A debate was held Monday in the British Parliament over whether to ban U.S. Republican presidential front-runner Donald Trump from visiting the United Kingdom. ........ The debate, which was started by an online petition that described Trump’s comments about Muslims as “hate speech,” did not produce any binding decisions. Authority to ban someone from the country rests with the home secretary, not with Parliament. But the exchange gave British lawmakers an unusual chance to weigh in directly on U.S. politics......... Lots of amateur analysis of American politics going on in Parliament right now. Scottish National Party member Anne McLaughlin was just interrupted by a member who wanted to talk about GOP presidential candidate Ted Cruz. “Where is the Republican Party going, putting one [candidate] up who’s as bad as the other?” she was asked. .......

Through a thick brogue, McLaughlin notes that Trump is “the son of a Scottish immigrant. And I apologize for that.” She accuses Trump of “hypocrisy” in his views on immigrants, and urges him to “look to Lady Liberty for some advice.” She says the strongest argument for banning him is “equality.” Others have been banned for similarly hateful remarks, she notes.

........ He may want to ban Muslims, but “the answer to his ban is not to ban him.” Doing so would only give him more publicity, generating “headlines around the world.” And besides, Trump could win. “And then we would be in the absurd situation of having banned the president of the United States.” ......... British members of Parliament are exhausting a thesaurus using words to condemn Trump. They’ve called him “a buffoon,” “a demagogue,” “a joke.” One member called him “an idiot” about five times in three minutes. ...... He says that it’s easy to be for “motherhood and apple pie,” but that it takes “real guts” to say things that are controversial. He’s not defending Trump. But he is defending Trump’s right to speak. ....... Before the debate, Trump had threatened to withdraw his planned investment in his Scottish golf courses if Britain went through with a ban. That threat may have had an impact. Corri Wilson, a Scottish National Party member who represents the area that is home to Turnberry, one of the billionaire businessman’s golf resorts, read off statistics about the number of jobs created in her area by Trump. She opposes the ban. .......

He says Trump and Muslim extremists feed off one another, adding, “ISIS needs Donald Trump and Donald Trump needs ISIS.” Dromey closes with a call for a ban: “Donald Trump is free to be a fool. But he’s not free to be a dangerous fool in Britain.”

...... Tasmina Ahmed-Sheikh, a Scottish National Party member, is interrupted by a questioner who describes Trump’s comments as “buffoonery,” which should be met “not with a ban, but with the great British response of ridicule.” ........ Ahmed-Sheikh says that by condemning Muslims, Trump has condemned Britain’s Olympic athletes, its newscasters and its members of Parliament. And he’s playing into the Islamic State’s narrative, by portraying a clash of civilizations between the West and the Muslim worlds. Others have been banned for anti-gay rhetoric or for Islamist extremism. The government needs to be consistent, and ban Trump for his hateful rhetoric against Muslims. “His remarks are condemning an entire religion,” she says. ....... The opponents say the proponents are inadvertently helping him by “fueling the man’s publicity machine.” Or so says Victoria Atkins, a Conservative MP, who says New York was named after a hamlet in her district. ....... Naz Shah, a Labour member .. As a Muslim woman, she would be banned from the United States under Trump’s plan. But she won’t support banning him from the United Kingdom. Instead, she wants to invite him to Bradford, “the curry capital of Britain.” She would serve him food and take him to the mosque, she said. ........

“While I think this man is crazy,” Tugendhat says, “I will not be the one to silence his voice.”

....... Trump, who’s of Scottish heritage, has invested heavily in Scottish golf courses and was until recently a business ambassador for Scotland. ........ Trump, he says, is “a ridiculous xenophobe. But someone we don’t need to promote any further.” ....... Tulip Siddiq, a Labour member from north London, is the next to rise. She supports keeping Trump out, saying, “I draw the line at freedom of speech when it imports a violent ideology.” The government’s option to ban people is intended to protect the public. It should be applied to Trump, and he should be banned from visiting “the multicultural country that we are so proud of.” .......

Trump’s comments were born out of “fear.”

........ Referring to the idea of banning Trump, he says: “I’ve never heard of one for stupidity. I’m not sure we should be starting now.” ......

Flynn wants to invite Trump to Britain, and show him around.

...... No one has expressed a word of support for Trump ...... Flynn says as much as he disagrees with Trump, he worries that banning him would give him a “halo of martyrdom.” ...... Flynn pays tribute to the Unites States as the land of “Abraham Lincoln, Martin Luther King and Barack Obama.” The debate, he says, isn’t about disrespecting the United States; it’s about the comments of one man. ...... The petition favoring a ban attracted more than 570,000 signatures. The one opposing a ban received about 40,000. ................ In nearly a millennium of history, the Palace of Westminster has played host to kings and queens, endured Nazi bombing raids and showed the world how a people could govern themselves through representative democracy. ..... But

it has never seen a day quite like the one expected Monday, when the building’s cold stone walls will echo with a parliamentary debate over whether to ban from Britain the leading Republican contender for president of the United States.

.......... It will be a strange moment for politics on both sides of the Atlantic. ... The Anglo-American alliance, a bedrock of Western security, is supposed to transcend politics..... Donald Trump’s reality-show-style emergence as Republican front-runner, however, is putting that notion to the test. Brits have watched his rise with a mixture of bemusement, alarm and indignation — the latter coming after he alleged that certain areas of London were off-limits to police because of rampant Islamic radicalization. ........

The parliamentary debate was triggered when more than a half-million people signed an online petition arguing that Trump should be outlawed from visiting Britain because of his call last month to ban Muslims from entering the United States. Trump’s proposal, petitioners said, amounted to “hate speech.”

......... Trump’s remarks on Muslims, Mexicans, women and the disabled, Flynn said, “are outrageous.” ...... “A ban is not going to achieve anything. It would be far better to test his claims.” ......

The British Home Office, which has the power to ban Trump, said in response to the petition that “coming to the U.K. is a privilege and not a right and [the Home Secretary] will continue to use the powers available to prevent from entering the U.K. those who seek to harm our society.”

....... Trump, who is of Scottish heritage, has not taken kindly to the debate. He has threatened to withdraw $1 billion of planned investment in his Scottish golf courses if the government moves against him. ......... Some in Parliament, while not siding with Trump, have argued that the debate is frivolous. ..... “The absurdity of Trump’s candidacy is matched only by the fact that he is set to be the subject of a debate in the House of Commons” ........ The group has noted that radical Islamist preachers and ­anti-Muslim bloggers, including Pamela Geller and Robert Spencer, have been banned...... “Trump’s statements are more extreme than theirs,” wrote British Future’s director, Sunder Katwala.
Whatever Happens to Hillary Clinton’s Campaign, It Won’t Be ‘2008 All Over Again’
"a sense of deja vu from 2008, when Clinton’s overwhelming edge cratered in the days before the Iowa caucuses." ..... there is zero chance Clinton will neglect to devote resources to small-state caucuses, where Obama, nearly unopposed, offset her Super Tuesday wins. ...... the Pacific Northwest where he's so immensely popular. ..... it's also unlikely, at present, that she will get wiped out in a string of southern states stretching from Virginia to Louisiana the way she was by Obama, unless Sanders shows an appeal to African-Americans that he can only dream about at present.
The Case Against Bernie Sanders
Sanders has grudgingly credited what he calls “the modest gains of the Affordable Care Act,” which seems like an exceedingly stingy assessment of a law that has already reduced the number of uninsured Americans by 20 million. The Dodd-Frank reforms of the financial industry may not have broken up the big banks, but they have, at the very least, deeply reduced systemic risk. The penalties for being too big to fail exceed the benefits, and, as a result, banks are actually breaking themselves up to avoid being large enough to be regulated as systemic risks. ....... Recently, conditions have improved. Unemployment has dropped, the number of people quitting their job has risen, and — as one would predict would happen when employers start to run short of available workers — average wages have started to climb. ...... At the very least, the conclusion that Obama’s policies have failed to raise living standards for average people is premature. And the progress under Obama refutes Sanders’s corollary point, that meaningful change is impossible without a revolutionary transformation that eliminates corporate power. ....... Even liberal labor economists like Alan Krueger, who have supported more modest increases, have blanched at Sanders’s proposal for a $15 minimum wage. ...... The despairing vision he paints of contemporary America is oversimplified. ..... He also has difficulty addressing issues outside his economic populism wheelhouse. In his opening statement at the debate the day after the Paris attacks, Sanders briefly and vaguely gestured toward the attacks before quickly turning back to his economic themes. .....

Sanders offers the left-wing version of a hoary political fantasy: that a more pure candidate can rally the People into a righteous uprising that would unsettle the conventional laws of politics.

...... Sanders’s version involves the mobilization of a mass grassroots volunteer army that can depose the special interests. “The major political, strategic difference I have with Obama is it’s too late to do anything inside the Beltway,” he told Andrew Prokop. “You gotta take your case to the American people, mobilize them, and organize them at the grassroots level in a way that we have never done before.” But Obama did organize passionate volunteers on a massive scale — far broader than anything Sanders has done — and tried to keep his volunteers engaged throughout his presidency. Why would Sanders’s grassroots campaign succeed where Obama’s far larger one failed? ............. Sanders has promised to replace Obamacare with a single-payer plan, without having any remotely plausible prospects for doing so. ...... Vermont had to abandon hopes of creating its own single-payer plan. If Vermont, one of the most liberal states in America, can’t summon the political willpower for single-payer, it is impossible to imagine the country as a whole doing it. Not surprisingly,

Sanders's health-care plan uses the kind of magical-realism approach to fiscal policy usually found in Republican budgets, conjuring trillions of dollars in savings without defining their source.

....... a second irony: Those areas in which a Democratic Executive branch has no power are those in which Sanders demands aggressive action, and the areas in which the Executive branch still has power now are precisely those in which Sanders has the least to say. ...... The next Democratic presidential term will be mostly defensive, a bulwark against the enactment of the radical Ryan plan. What little progress liberals can expect will be concentrated in the non-Sanders realm. ......

it seems bizarre for Democrats to risk losing the presidency by embracing a politically radical doctrine that stands zero chance of enactment even if they win.

Sunday, January 17, 2016

India: GST Bill

सरदार पटेल ने जिस तरह भारतका राजनीतिक एकीकरण किया और उनको बिस्मार्क कहा जाता है, उसी तरह अरुण जेटली भारत का आर्थिक एकीकरण करना चाहते हैं इस GST Bill के रास्ते। तो देरी किस बात की? काँग्रेस कहती है ये बिल तो पहले हम लाए। आप लाए तो पास करने में और आसानी होनी चाहिए। दोनों मिल के क्रेडिट ले लो। लेकिन पास तो करो।



What is the GST Bill? What does it mean to you and me? The Good and Services tax in the biggest indirect tax reform since 1947 and it has potential to lead the economic integration of India.
This will be levied on manufacture sale and consumption of goods and services. ...... the GST bill will lead to the economic integration of India. ..... The main function of the GST is to transform India into a uniform market by breaking the current fiscal barrier between states. Thus the GST will facilitate a uniform tax levied on goods and services across the country. ..... Currently, the indirect tax system in India is complicated with overlapping taxes levied by the Centre and the State separately. ..... two components- the Central GST and the State GST. They will both have separate powers to legislate and administer their respective taxes. Thus equally empowering both. ....... Taxes such as excise duty, service, central sales tax, VAT ( value added tax), entry tax or octroi will all be subsumed by the GST under a single umbrella. ..... With passing of the GST bill, we can expect a climate of improved tax compliance...... Thus, the GST will basically have only three kinds of taxes, Central, State and another called the integrated GST to tackle inter-state transactions........ The first mention of the bill was in 2009 when the previous UPA government opened a discussion on it. ...... the current challenge facing the bill is that it needs two-third majority of both houses and 50 percent of the state assemblies will have to ratify it. ..... the GST will be instrumental in helping the GDP of India to grow by 2 percent. ......

The GST also offers a solution to the multinationals as it breaks down the indirect tax structure into one single tax payable by the companies.

Ten things to know about the GST Bill
The Bill seeks to shift the restriction on States for taxing the sale or purchase of goods to the supply of goods or services. ...... The GST Council will be the body that decides which taxes levied by the Centre, States and local bodies will go into the GST; which goods and services will be subjected to GST; and the basis and the rates at which GST will be applied. ......... The Centre will levy an additional one per cent tax on the supply of goods in the course of inter-State trade, which will go to the States for two years or till when the GST Council decides. ..... Parliament can decide on compensating States for up to a five-year period if States incur losses by implementation of GST.
GST will be cleared in 15 minutes if govt agrees to our terms, says Rahul
At the core of the dispute between the ruling party and the principal Opposition party is not just the demand for a constitutional cap on the GST median rate, as it is called, but also two other conditions put forward by the Congress.
“We don’t want a GST Bill where there is no cap on taxes. We want a limitation on the maximum tax people can be charged with.” ....... The Congress has demanded withdrawal of an additional one per cent tax on inter-state movement of goods, which has been proposed to provide comfort to manufacturing states that fear a loss of revenue. The party has also demanded a dispute resolution panel headed by a Supreme Court judge. ....... Stating that the GST legislation was conceptualised by his party, Rahul said: “For seven years, Jaitley didn’t allow it to pass. The current Prime Minister, when he was chief minister, too, didn’t allow it to pass. The BJP blocked everything. It has never been the strategy of the Congress to block Parliament.” .......

“This government doesn’t believe in a conversation”

, he said, adding that a compromise on GST was possible. “It is sitting on the table. But the government is not taking it,’ he said. He said that work is yet to begin on the necessary infrastructure that can make GST work. - ........ The Congress has hit back, pointing out that some of its concerns were reflected in the report of Chief Economic Advisor Arvind Subramanian on GST.

Ammunition Against Gossip

Friday, January 15, 2016

The Conversation On Drugs Sean Penn Wants

English: Sean Penn at the premier for Milk at ...
English: Sean Penn at the premier for Milk at the Castro Theatre in San Francisco, October 2008 (Photo credit: Wikipedia)
Bin Laden, And Now El Chapo
Does Sean Penn Play Sean Penn In The Sean Penn Movie?

First of all, I'd say, it is fair for US law enforcement to have thought of El Chapo a Bin Laden like figure. I have not read up much on the whole legalization of drugs thing, but I am pretty sure that debate does note venture beyond marijuana. Serious brain altering chemicals are a one way road to addiction that cripple you as a human being. If Bin Laden was the most wanted man in New York City, El Chapo was the most wanted man in Chicago. Lives have been destroyed in the wake of the drug trade. The intelligence craft that got El Chapo is rightly Zero Dark Thirty material. And let's get one thing off the bat, US law enforcement does not exactly have the luxury of taking part in the debate and discussion on the legalization of drugs. They are not lawmakers. A duly elected government pays them a salary and swears them to an oath. They have a job to do. It is a very difficult job requiring specialized skill, and sometimes the ultimate sacrifice. The capture of El Chapo is a major victory for the forces of good.

Sean Penn Says El Chapo’s Capture Spoiled His Article




Sean Penn has "a terrible regret" about "El Chapo" meeting

America is a democracy. Of course we can talk about the War On Drugs, just like we can talk about everything else. Heck, I myself want to participate.

The number one thing is, we as a people, as a species, lag way behind when it comes to understanding and doing something about mental health. Mental health is still such a taboo topic. We know so much about the harmful effects of smoking. But what do we know about the effects of loneliness? When we catch a cold, we are aware of some over the counter stuff we can take. What are the mental health equivalents? Do we even become aware when we catch cold? Mental health is nowhere on par with physical health. Efforts should be made. One of the things that will emerge is we will put much more emphasis on our emotional infrastructure. We will look at family, friends, and colleagues in a new light. We will do more about self help groups, hotlines, and therapy and medication. A lot of the drug consumption is people going to the quack doctor because nothing else is available, people getting abortions and risking deaths, because abortion is illegal.

This is my primary thing to say.

As for the broad policy called the War On Drugs. I wish there were ways to get guns and drugs out of inner cities. I know people are trying. But what has been done is not enough. America supplies guns. America gets supplied drugs. These are humongous problems. The best people are at it, but the results are not good enough.

Does Sean Penn have a right to meet El Chapo? Of course he does. He went as a journalist. Journalists do have a right to meet and talk.

Fear Of Gun Violence Is Black Slavery Today
The Insanity Of Guns In America
The Genius Of The US Constitution

Thursday, January 14, 2016

An Opening For Bloomberg?

Hillary seems to be sinking like a rock in Iowa and New Hampshire. What's going on? I did not foresee this. This makes Barack Obama look bad! :) As in, if even Sanders can do this.

Donald Trump has been a multi-faceted talent. He has not only utterly destroyed the Republican Party, he has also paved the way for New York City billionaires.

When was the last time New York City so thoroughly dominated a presidential election?

Ted Kennedy also finally gave in, and it was not pretty for him in 1980. The political brand name seems to be a media creation.

What Is This Talk Of Bloomberg 2016?

Trump takes care of the divorced and billionaire part, and Sanders takes care of the Jewish part. And suddenly, advantage Bloomberg.