Monday, March 17, 2014

I See Nitish Doing Well In Bihar

हिन्दी: देश के उप राष्ट्रपति मोहम्मद हामिद अंस...
हिन्दी: देश के उप राष्ट्रपति मोहम्मद हामिद अंसारी पटना में पूर्व मुख्यमंत्री सत्येन्द्र नारायण सिन्हा(छोटे साहब) की 94वीं जयंती पर आयोजित व्याख्यानमाला श्रंखला पर पूर्व सांसद किशोरी सिन्हा और मुख्यमंत्री नीतीश कुमार के साथ (Photo credit: Wikipedia)
Because he has done good work. And he understands caste equations better than anyone else in Bihar.
 
Nitish Kumar takes battle to rival camps, eyes their votebank
fielded more than 16 candidates from OBC and EBC communities out of the 38 Lok Sabha seats that Nitish Kumar's party is contesting in Bihar. The JD(U) has left two seats for its ally, the CPI, and would be in triangular contest in nearly all the remaining 38 seats. ...... the JD(U) has given six tickets to Yadavs to rattle the RJD applecart. Also, perhaps flustered by the desertion of top Kushwaha leaders, Kumar has given six tickets to this influential "backward caste" to ensure the BJP doesn't gain from the entry of Vijay Singh Kushwaha, the husband of Renu Kushwaha who quit the JD(U) government last week. ....... "This isn't unusual," said Pataliputra MP Ranjan Prasad Yadav of the JD(U), adding that out of the 20 seats the party won in 2009, four were held by Yadavs. Only two more have been added this time ...... The OBCs and MBCs in Bihar are more than 45% of votes and vital for any party trying to win. Interestingly, these societies have traditionally backed regional parties like the JD(U) and RJD rather than national parties like the Congress and BJP. ...... Sanjay Jha, the JD(U) candidate from Darbhanga ..... the JD(U) has given tickets to the backwards classes, which have traditionally backed the party. ..... Kumar has left eight seats for the upper castes besides five seats for Muslims, and four for Bhumihars who are supposed to be arrayed behind the BJP. His giving ticket to Muslims is another clear indication of his sharpening his competition with Lalu.
Third Front will emerge as First Front after polls: Nitish Kumar
For BJP’s new catches, tickets are rarer in UP than in Bihar
Anger over BJP list in Bihar trickles to Delhi
The BJP’s third list of Lok Sabha candidates has opened a Pandora’s Box, with senior party leaders in Bihar openly expressing their displeasure at being ignored or given seats they don’t want to contest from. ...... The trouble in Bihar spilled out into the open, with former state minister Giriraj Singh meeting party president Rajnath Singh here on Friday and complaining about “selective targeting” of upper caste leaders. Giriraj is miffed with the party for giving more weightage to the opinion of leaders like Sushil Kumar Modi who he said had compromised the BJP’s interests during the alliance with the JD(U) at the “behest” of Bihar chief minister Nitish Kumar...... Giriraj did not get the seat of his choice, Begusarai, and has been fielded from Nawada, which the BJP pledged to ally Rashtriya Lok Samata Party of Upendra Kushwaha. ..... “It is Begusarai or nothing for me.” ..... He blamed the denial of the seat of his choice on a “conspiracy” by those in the BJP “who had publicly opposed Narendra Modi for the PM’s post and instead endorsed chief minister Nitish Kumar”. ...... Actor-turned politician Shatrughan Sinha was in a sulk after he found that he was the only one among 12 sitting party MPs whose re-nomination (for the Patna Saheb) seat was “put on hold”. ........ BJP sources said Sinha’s woes might be rooted in his flip-flop on Narendra Modi, when a debate was on in the party whether he should be declared the BJP’s PM nominee. Former Minister Ashwini Chaubey, the BJP’s Brahmin face in Bihar, too is upset over being denied a ticket from Bhagalpur, where sitting MP Shahnawaz Hussain has been retained. ..... Another ‘original’ Modi supporter, former minister Chandra Mohan Rai, who was denied a ticket for Valmikinagar in north Bihar, said his long association with the party had counted for nothing.
Bihar BJP legislators upset after being ignored
Six BJP legislators, including two vocal supporters of BJP's prime ministerial candidate Narendra Modi, expressed their displeasure after being denied tickets for the Lok Sabha election.
BJP now plays caste card
For a greater part of its political history, Hindus of the upper castes have dominated BJP. The BJP is confident of winning support of upper-caste Hindus, who form around 20.5 percent of the population in UP and 13 percent in Bihar. The party has, however, realized that without the support of the backward classes, scheduled castes and other segments of the Indian society, prospects of it faring well from UP and Bihar are limited.
BJP ticket aspirants in Bihar wary of new entrants
22 of 25 seats vacated by JD(U) seem headed to non-BJP workers. ..... The document, which runs into 100 pages, will dwell on 40 themes relating to various aspects of political economy........ The document envisages thrust to the manufacturing sector by “addressing unfavourable input costs” at a systemic level. For example, the issue of high lending rates, high cost of capital, high energy cost, cumbersome access to natural resources, logistic bottlenecks will be re-looked, the source said. It is also likely to stress the need to dismantle the impression of prevalence of licence raj in the country........ The advocates of the vision document seek to draw inspiration from DICCI (Dalit Indian Chamber of Commerce & Industry) model of economic empowerment of Dalits and tribals........ The source said there will be no direct reference to the GM crops, but the document advocates use of technology to enhance productivity.
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Modi's Last Mile Problem That Nitish Does Not Have

English: Indian actor Salman Khan
English: Indian actor Salman Khan (Photo credit: Wikipedia)
NDA gets 229, UPA 129 but Modi faces a last mile challenge: survey
the NDA is likely to get 229 seats while the UPA is likely to win 129. The survey gave alternate front 55 seats and the others got 130. Significantly, the others include parties like Trinamool Congresss and the AIADMK. Independently, the BJP is likely to get 195 seats and the Congress 106.
Modi is my second choice for PM. I don't dislike him. I think his economic record in Gujrat is impressive. But why settle for second when first is available? Nitish is my first choice. Like Salman Khan said, may the best candidate win. But Nitish is only a contender if he gets more than 20 seats in Bihar. Otherwise it is a mad dash to 271 by the likes of Modi and Jayalalita. Nitish getting less than 10 MPs might also be read as a mandate for Modi. If the leader of the so-called Third Front can be beat on his own turf by Modi, that perhaps would mean Modi has a mandate, even if not a majority.
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Indian Surveys Are Off

हिन्दी: देश के उप राष्ट्रपति मोहम्मद हामिद अंस...
हिन्दी: देश के उप राष्ट्रपति मोहम्मद हामिद अंसारी पटना में पूर्व मुख्यमंत्री सत्येन्द्र नारायण सिन्हा(छोटे साहब) की 94वीं जयंती पर आयोजित व्याख्यानमाला श्रंखला पर पूर्व सांसद किशोरी सिन्हा और मुख्यमंत्री नीतीश कुमार के साथ (Photo credit: Wikipedia)
India is the largest and most interesting democracy on the planet, no doubt about it. It is also cutting edge in many ways. India has had a Sikh Prime Minister and a Sikh army chief, not to say Muslim presidents, and a woman Prime Minister. That is like America having a Filipino president and a Puerto Rican whatever. And when Nitish takes Bihar’s growth rate to 15 per cent, you know he is beating China, and Bihar is not even a coastal, industrial state.

But that cutting edge thing does not seem to be happening with the Indian polls. In 2004 the surveys showed the BJP coming back to power. Instead Manmohan Singh became Prime Minister. The surveys were off also in 2009. This time I do think there is a Modi wave, but it is a wave in that it will take the BJP from about 100 seats to 200 seats. When you double your seat count, it can be called a wave. But there are surveys that show Nitish Kumar getting five seats. How do you explain that? His job approval rating in Bihar is close to 70%.

Recently I came across a survey that claimed the BJP was set to get half the seats in the South. That is when I threw the towel. That is not possible. The BJP has no presence in the South. How could it end up with half the seats in the South?

If anything the polls and the surveys have added further mystery to the process. You know no one knows for sure what’s going on. If you give 200 seats to the BJP, and 100 seats to the Congress, that leaves 245 seats to the rest. And the Congress is already giving hints it will stop the BJP at any cost, even if that means supporting the so-called Third Front.

Only Nitish is now calling it the First Front. It is obvious there is a need for a new name. If you are going to build a coalition where the Congress is itself a junior ally in power, you cannot call it the Third Front. Mamata calls it the tired front.

India is such a large democracy, and most Indians are so rural, you have to ask for the methodologies in those surveys. Who are these pollsters calling? And what are they asking? What is their sample size? There was a sting operation a few weeks back that showed all the leading polling agencies were happy tweaking the poll results for the highest bidder. That is like when the search engines before Google put you at the top if you gave them money. There is also an upper caste bias against people like Nitish. And Indian media has been slower to change than Indian political leadership. Indian media is still upper caste dominated. And then there is the corporate bias. The big media houses are owned by the big Indian corporate interests who threw their lot behind Modi a long time ago.

There are two Indians who speak amazing Hindi. One is Amitabh. Another is Nitish. I just love watching both of them speak Hindi on YouTube.

I admitted to my Bihar bias a long time ago. But that does not change the fact that Nitish is the far superior candidate. And that is why I support him. The polls projecting Nitish getting five seats is like some polls projecting the BJP will get half the seats in the South.

I think something new is about to happen in India. India is finally about to prove democracy is a superior form of government to whatever they have in China, but you do have to apply it all the way. And if you do that, you end up with double digit growth rates. Something happened in China around 1980. Something is about to happen in India in 2014. That positive change will be the gift of the Kumbh Mela called the Indian general elections.

Just like there is a global Chinese identity and community, there is a global Indian identity and community. And that identity gets a boost when India does well.

At some point down the line, poll taking in India is going to get a little more scientific, a little more reliable. But that time is not now. So I am not putting too much stock in the polls. And the Indian election procedure lasts a full month. So there will be a lot of waiting before the final results are out. But when they are out, there will be a flurry of activity. I expect Nitish to be camping out in Delhi at that point in time. Coalition building is an art form. Nitish’s ways speak to the diversity of India. And that is what will carry the day. It helps that he is also the top performing Indian politician today. Like Salman Khan said, may the best person get the top job. Nitish is that best person.
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Friday, March 14, 2014

Nitish Is The Most Qualified

हिन्दी: देश के उप राष्ट्रपति मोहम्मद हामिद अंस...
हिन्दी: देश के उप राष्ट्रपति मोहम्मद हामिद अंसारी पटना में पूर्व मुख्यमंत्री सत्येन्द्र नारायण सिन्हा(छोटे साहब) की 94वीं जयंती पर आयोजित व्याख्यानमाला श्रंखला पर पूर्व सांसद किशोरी सिन्हा और मुख्यमंत्री नीतीश कुमार के साथ (Photo credit: Wikipedia)
Bihar’s growth rate boosts Nitish’s claim to top job
Bihar is India’s fastest growing State with its Gross State Domestic Product (GSDP) growing at 15.05 per cent during 2012-13 ...... the only State to clock a double-digit growth rate. Bihar’s spectacular performance assumes significance given Chief Minister Nitish Kumar’s declaration on Thursday that he is better suited than anyone else to be the Prime Minister ..... Gujarat grew at 7.96 per cent, ranked sixth, behind Bihar, Madhya Pradesh (9.89 per cent), Goa (8.47 per cent), Kerala (8.24 per cent) and Odisha (8.09 per cent). The all-India economic growth in 2012-13 was 4.47 per cent. ..... During Mr. Kumar’s tenure, Bihar’s average growth rate has been 11 per cent as compared to Gujarat's 9 per cent.
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Nitish Has Been The Top Performing Indian Politician

And that is why he is the best candidate for Prime Minister.

Modinomics: do Narendra Modi's economic claims add up?
Gujarat's growth rate in the 1990s was 4.8%, compared to the national average of 3.7%; in the 2000s it was 6.9% compared to the national average of 5.6%. The difference between Gujarat's growth rate and the national average increased marginally, from 1.1 percentage points to 1.3 percentage points. A good performance? Yes. Justifying the hype? No. Maharashtra, the top-ranked state in terms of per capita income in the 2000s, improved its growth rate from 4.5% in the 1990s to 6.7% in the 2000s. The difference between Maharashtra's growth rate and the national average grew from 0.8 percentage points to 1.1 percentage points. Contrast this with the performance of Bihar, the state that has been in the bottom of the rankings in terms of per capita income throughout: its growth rate was 2.7 percentage points below the national average in the 1990s, but 1.3 percentage points higher in the 2000s. So the prize for the most dramatic turnaround in the 2000s would go to Bihar.
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Nitish Getting Only 5 Seats: Hard To Believe


Source: NDTV

Some theories. (1) The people of Bihar want Nitish to stay put in Patna. (2) They will give him a 60% majority in the 2015 state elections. He will get two more terms if he wants. (3) There is a upper caste bias in the media that is punishing Nitish for breaking up with the BJP. (4) Nitish has not led strongly enough. You can't become Prime Minister if you are not even running.
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