Wednesday, September 02, 2020

Coronavirus News (227)

Joe Biden faces pressure to separate China trade policy from Donald Trump’s in US election Americans feel more negative about China than ever before, yet healthy trade ties with the world’s No 2 economy remain surprisingly popular among US voters Biden faces challenge in differentiating his China trade policy from Trump’s, with ex-White House aides expecting tactical changes rather than an overhaul ............  a record 73 per cent of Americans now hold an unfavourable view on China, yet 51 per cent want to broker a strong economic relationship with America’s greatest modern-day rival. ..........  On China, the common theme has been the need to compete on some fronts and cooperate on others, stopping short of the zero sum view of trade policy that has defined Trump’s approach. ..........  A recent Biden proposal to “rebuild US supply chains”, which name-checked China 10 times, with Russia the only other country named (three times), emphasised this fact. .............  expect China to test Biden on trade early on, perhaps discarding the phase one trade deal – which Green described as “the bamboo deal because it is Chinese on the outside and hollow on the inside” – then gauging the new president’s response. .............   When campaigning for the Democratic nomination, he said that “America’s farmers have been crushed by [Trump]’s tariff war with China”, adding that Trump “thinks his tariffs are being paid by China. Any beginning econ student at Iowa or Iowa State could tell you that the American people are paying his tariffs”. ..............  Biden would almost certainly be more predictable than Trump. He would seek to rebuild alliances with scorned partners, at a time when China has fallen out with Australia, India, Canada and is struggling to make progress on an investment treaty with Europe ...........  even from a Chinese perspective. Trump is destroying America, but he is destroying China too – he is destroying the whole world … so it is not good for China in the long run

China to overtake US as world’s top economy in 2032 despite Washington hostilities, state think tank predicts Report is based on prevailing assumptions in Beijing that China’s economic rise is unstoppable Development Research Centre of the State Council suggests that feuds with United States will continue to intensify over the next five years

China could weaponise drug exports to retaliate against US chip restrictions, Beijing adviser says High-profile economist Li Daokui says Beijing could restrict drug exports to the US if the Trump administration was to cut China’s access to semiconductors Washington has been ratcheting up attacks on Chinese tech firms, including starving Huawei of components made by American companies

China’s wish to end US dollar dominance is unlikely to come true with no genuine challenger in the wings Washington’s moves to sanction both Chinese and Hong Kong officials over the national security law and Xinjiang have highlighted the power of the US dollar The US dollar has remained the dominant currency since the 1940s, with the euro and the yuan lagging behind in terms of global foreign exchange reserves

US-China decoupling: does clash of ideologies raise too many non-negotiables? Live with us peacefully, China’s envoy Cui Tiankai has challenged Washington – but some argue coexistence is expected to be on Beijing’s terms American opposition to China on ideological grounds makes its position equally entrenched.........  The world’s two biggest economies are still doing business with each other, but on nearly every other front, from political systems to human rights, territorial boundaries and technology development, they are in an increasingly vocal conflict. .............  “Is the United States ready to live with another country with a different history, different culture, maybe different system, but with no intention to compete for global dominance with the United States?” .............  “Are you ready to live with us in peace?” ...........  “We have to keep in mind that the Chinese Communist Party [CCP] regime is a Marxist-Leninist regime,” he said. “General Secretary Xi Jinping is a true believer in a bankrupt totalitarian ideology. “It’s this ideology that informs his decades-long desire for global hegemony of Chinese communism. America can no longer ignore the fundamental political and ideological differences between our countries, just as the CCP has never ignored them.” ...........  “For China, the idea of the two countries living together in peace could equate to annexing Taiwan, absorbing Hong Kong, repressing Xinjiang and denying maritime claims of US allies and partners in the East and South China Seas” .............  “Ambassador Cui’s speech, though couched in diplomatic language, is at the same time bullying, insisting that the US accommodate China regardless of Beijing’s inappropriate behaviour, rather than identify ways that China and the US can alter behaviour together to change the paradigm,” he said. “So long as China continues on its current path, the prospects for improved relations are dim, regardless of who is in the White House in 2021.” ..........  “Cui’s statement perfectly captures the Chinese view that it is time for the US to accommodate a powerful country with a different political, economic and values system.”   

Chinese President Xi Jinping says Marxist political economy is the bedrock for nation’s growth The ‘dominant position of public ownership cannot be shaken’, general secretary of Chinese Communist Party says In an ever-changing global environment, steering the economy into the future will be a major test for the party, Xi says ............  China’s Marxist political economy will continue to adapt to the ever-changing domestic and international environment, but must remain the bedrock on which the nation builds its future ..........  steering the economy into the future would be a major test for the party, he said ..... Xi dismissed suggestions that China’s Marxist political economy was outdated, saying it allowed markets to play a decisive role in the allocation of resources but also enhanced the role of the government. .........  US Secretary of State Mike Pompeo last week said America viewed the threat posed by China as “much more difficult” to counter than the one presented by the Soviet Union during the Cold War. .........  Many capitalist countries had suffered economic downturns, unemployment problems, increased polarisation and deepening social conflicts, he said.    

China’s Marxist political economy is here to stay, President Xi Jinping says. Photo: AP

Mike Pompeo says Chinese threat may be worse than ‘Cold War 2.0 US Secretary of State urges Czechs to stand up to Beijing like they did to Soviets Pompeo raises prospect of Chinese world domination on first stop of five-day Central Europe trip ........... “The CCP is already enmeshed in our economies, in our politics, in our societies in ways the Soviet Union never was.” ......... Pompeo slammed China for its repression of the Hong Kong protests and called Beijing’s repression of Uygur Muslims “the human rights stain of the century,” charging that it was “sustained by companies like Huawei, using technology that the secret police could have only dreamed of”. ...... But Babiš was non-committal. He expressed disappointment that China had invested so little in the country, saying: “With all due respect to our American investors, I want more investments from China.”

US Secretary of State Mike Pompeo adjusts his face mask after a press conference in Prague on Wednesday. Photo: EPA-EFE

Coronavirus News (226)

How the US uses the dollar payments system to impose sanctions on a global scale The US dollar’s global dominance gives Washington a powerful tool that it uses to enforce sanctions on people, institutions and countries The decoupling of the world’s two largest economies has raised concerns about the United States deploying the ‘nuclear option’ of freezing China’s banking sector out of the global US dollar payments system   ........  The US’ ability to exploit the US dollar payment system began during the administration of former president Bill Clinton (1993-2001) and expanded under subsequent administrations. ..........  Iran, North Korea, Syria, Venezuela and, to a lesser extent, Russia. ..........  Last month, the US imposed sanctions on several Chinese government firms and officials, citing ties to alleged human rights abuses against ethnic minorities in restive Xinjiang. Most notably, the sanctions hit Chen Quanguo, a member of China’s Politburo, the centre of power within the Communist Party. ..............   the US Clearing House Interbank Payments System (Chips). Chips forms the primary settlement network for large-value domestic and international US dollar payments. ..............  the Society for Worldwide Interbank Financial Telecommunication (SWIFT) – the world’s largest electronic payment messaging system ............  Although it does not settle transactions, the Belgian-based SWIFT network connects 11,000 banks and companies globally, for sending messages about financial transactions. Among its 25-board membership, the US has two seats and the chairmanship, while China has one seat. ............... US-China interdependence is so extensive .............  The Cross-border Interbank Payment System, the Chinese payment system for yuan settlements, processed 135.7 billion yuan (US$19.5 billion) worth of daily transactions last year – less than 2 per cent of the daily volume in the US’ Chips clearing system.   

US dollar at risk of sudden collapse? Ex-IMF official warns ‘blow-up event’ could sink currency as debt mounts A fresh stimulus package worth at least US$1 trillion could spell relief for millions of Americans in pandemic, but could raise financial stability risks US Federal Reserve’s aggressiveness in easing financial conditions has succeeded in halting a further decline in the US economy, but that could change if major companies start going bankrupt ......... “The concern isn’t whether the US dollar will see an accumulated decline of 30 per cent in the future, but whether there will be a blow-up event that causes a sudden loss of confidence in the US dollar, and its market to collapse,” said Zhu, who is currently head of the National Financial Research Institute at Tsinghua University in Beijing. ...................  “So, the question of whether there will be a financial crisis will depend on whether a major company will be the next to go bankrupt, and thereby result in a jump in the corporate default ratio, leading to a sovereign debt crisis,” Zhu said. The US became the lender of choice for many countries that were willing to buy US-dollar-denominated bonds. This provided the US with what’s been dubbed an “exorbitant privilege” to run with soaring public deficits and debt, as international funds have chased the safe-haven status of US dollars and assets during times of turmoil. ....................  “Past an unknown critical threshold, [using monetary policy to deal with public deficit] could see the collapse of US dollar currency hegemony as people lose faith in it,” Every said. “All systems can only be pushed so far. Does the world still want a US-dollar-centric system if US dollars are openly printed to fund the state spending that drives the external deficit?” .................  The US dollar has been the world’s leading currency since 1919, when it overtook the pound in the aftermath of World War I.   

The coronavirus pandemic has put additional pressure on the US dollar, driving it on Thursday to its lowest level since September 2018. Photo: Reuters

China keen to work with ‘US states, local councils, businesses’ despite Washington’s hostility, Xi Jinping says President Xi Jinping is keen to de-escalate rising tensions with Washington and ensure American companies continue to do business with China China has had close ties with states on the west coast of the US, while purchases of agriculture products have also boosted interactions with Midwest farm states

China’s economic future is being influenced by nine economists, but what did they tell Xi Jinping this week? Chinese President Xi Jinping met with nine prominent economists this week to help with the development of the 14th five-year plan for 2021-25 which is due next year Each of the economists has advocated specific policies that could shed light on Beijing’s policy priorities in the years ahead .........  China’s economy grew by 6.1 per cent in 2019, the lowest growth rate since political turmoil ravaged the country in 1990, before shrinking 6.8 per cent in the first quarter of 2020 after the coronavirus shut down large swathes of the country. It avoided a recession after its economy grew by 3.2 per cent in the second quarter, the first major economy to show a recovery from the damage caused by the coronavirus. ...........   Wang was the driving force behind the nation’s strategically emerging industries plan. As early as 2012, he put forward his countrywide competition idea under which Beijing should marshal the country’s entire pool of state, market and social resources to pursue industrial and technological leadership..........  In one recently published article, Zhang said China must uphold the rules of the World Trade Organisation and seek an open and multilateral trade system to challenge the unilateralism being pursued by the US. .............  China will rely more on itself but it will not close itself up