Showing posts with label Japan. Show all posts
Showing posts with label Japan. Show all posts

Saturday, May 27, 2017

India-Japan Should Compete With OBOR

OBOR is an ambitious infrastructure initiative. But it makes tremendous sense for India and Japan to compete with it. Numerous small countries across Asia and Africa would benefit.

India is a political rival to China and Japan is an economic rival. Both are giant democracies that counter the police state suggestions of China.

Physical infrastructure can not be the only thing. India can offer a more holistic model of development.

The synergy will benefit India much as Japan is in a position to make massive investments in India.

The India Japan partnership could thrive without American or European participation. It is big enough on its own.

Thursday, July 23, 2015

India And The US

India to race past US in 25 years; I am saying it with money, not words: Masayoshi Son
Softbank's 57-year-old billionaire founder Masayoshi Son is known for his long-term bets that look at the potential over decades........ he is betting on India to overtake the US economy in 25 years ...... Last year, I had a meeting with the Prime Minister (Narendra) Modi in Tokyo. We talked about India and the opportunities there and he invited me to come to India. I came in October last year. From that visit, we ( SoftBank) said we will make a $10 billion investment and I made a commitment for the next 10 years. Then, PM Modi asked me why don't I look at not just internet-related business, but also solar energy? I said okay. ......... he (Modi) then announced a 100 gigawatt vision for solar, increased from the last government's 20 GW target. I said, wow, that's a great vision and I would like to support and contribute to making that happen. So, here we are. ..... Like in the beginning of the automobile (industry), car accidents happened often. Regulations come, the traffic lights come and you cannot drive when you drink—all kinds of rules come as solutions to solve issues. In internet in general, there are security, privacy and many other issues. ...... Snapdeal (at least the business model) is an Alibaba-style model. Flipkart is more like the Amazon model. ....... Alibaba model is the model that I am supporting in China, in India and even in Japan. ...... I think

in the next 30 years, the number of robots will be equal or greater than number of humans

. That's my view. Thirty years ago there was no mobile phone. Today, everyone has a mobile phone. So 30 years is a big change. ...... And the number and kind of robots will be more than the kind of humans. ...... Of course Jack Ma was the guy who impressed me. But I sometimes get very excited with the wrong guys and I regret that five years later. Out of the 24 investments over the last 18 years, actually only with four of them we did minus results; 20 of them reported positive results. And aggregate return on investment was 46% annually. ...... Sometimes there are guys who are smart but selfish, unfair. ...... the Chinese economy will be larger than the US in the future. After that, India is the next best candidate that could surpass US economy in the next 25 years. After that China and India could be competing for number one. So India has that much opportunity. ..... I would like to participate in this exciting moment as we participated in the Chinese 'hockey stick' moment.

Wednesday, June 24, 2015

Democracy's Contemporary Challenge



What is known as the War On Terror is very real, but a tussle that has not been given a name yet is not any less real. The three biggest wars of the previous century were democracy versus opposing ideologies that all tended towards autocracy. The two contemporary simultaneous tussles are similar. It is democracy versus the rest. America, Europe, India and Japan are hugely diverse cultures. But they all have political structures that are similar and can be described as democracies. That is not true of ISIS territory, that is not true of Russia, China, Pakistan, North Korea.

There is no avoiding the tussle, but it need not be bloody. The cheapest and the least bloody way might be funding Elon Musk's idea of satellite internet. The only way these two tussles conclude is when democracy wins, and the law of political entropy says you need to beam down the internet from the skies into these hostile territories.

Both Russia and Pakistan hold periodic elections. But they are not democracies.

India with its large Muslim population could play a key role for a major spread of democracy across the Arab/Muslim world. That makes India the new Britain, America's number one ally. And it is India that shares a border with China, not Japan or America or Europe, not to say thousands of years of history.

In Pakistan, the Pakistan Army and the ISI (curiously missing one letter S) run like parallel governments. That is not a democracy's structure.

Tuesday, June 23, 2015

A Genuine World Government

World Government And Federal States
Does The World Government Have To Await A Total Spread Of Democracy?

The Universal Declaration Of Human Rights is a pretty amazing document, the Magna Carta of our times. I envision a world government that has two chambers. In the lower chamber's voting right is in direct proportion to a country's population. In the upper chamber each country's voting right is in direct proportion to its GDP. Each member country pays one per cent of its GDP as the price for membership in the world body. And this need not wait until every country has become a democracy. This, on the other hand, will expedite the spread of democracy. This also will bring about rule of law between nations just like there is rule of law within nations. That will make room for a dramatic downsizing of the US defense budget by over 90%. God knows America needs to pay down on its debt. And if that cut is spread over 10 years, it need not be painful. The resources can go elsewhere, like in the energy sector.

The right to self determination is as fundamental as the right to free speech, the freedom of religion. What that means is all peoples have a right to federalism, and federalism means you can vote to secede at any time. On the other hand, a country could also vote to join another country and become its newest state, granted that country's legislature's accepts. Mexico might choose to join America. Or not. Mexico might wish, America might not so desire. Nepal might choose to join India, as might Burma, perhaps Bangladesh.

The good news is, this might be the only way to tackle Climate Change and avert catastrophe. Unless humanity can create a genuine world government, that is a sign humanity can not come together even in the face of certain disaster.

Saturday, June 13, 2015

India: A 15% Growth Rate Is Possible

India decadal growth rate map
India decadal growth rate map (Photo credit: Wikipedia)
Countries like America and Britain and France and Germany and Japan ended up becoming an awe to China because they grew at something like 5% for decades, for centuries. Not 10%.

China grew at 10% for 30 years. Maybe 25.

If Modi does things right, as I think he will, as I think he is, India should hit 10% in a year or two. And it can stay there for 20-30 years. Maybe longer. But my point is, India could achieve a 15% growth rate. It is possible.

India's Goal: $50 Trillion

Main economic growth rate ki baat kar raha hoon, population growth rate ki nahin. Koi confusion na ho jaye. 


Friday, January 30, 2015

India Is The New Britain: Thanks To Muslims And China


The oldest democracy of modern times (the first republic was in the time of Buddha) has the historic burden to see through a total spread of democracy as it works its own way to a more perfect union. I hope for peaceful methods and ways, but violence was a part of World War II, the Cold War, and now is a part of the (for lack of a better phrase) War On Terror. When you do the math, China glares you in the face. Should the War on Terror - and the only way it can conclude is after a total spread of democracy has been achieved across the Muslim world - conclude, what is next? China?

When the tussle between capitalism and communism first began, capitalism/democracy first responded by creating an elaborate welfare state. Was that communism's victory? I don't know. But that sure made the case of democracy much stronger. Similarly China makes a clear case for campaign finance reform in political systems like America, even as it fights the losing battle of keeping the lid on political reform.

But if democracy is to be spread across the Muslim/Arab world and democracy is to be spread across China, India finds itself at the center of the universe. India has a huge Muslim population. Not only that, India needs to prove democracy works for Muslims and is right by the Muslims. India also is one of the countries (like Japan, the Phillippines, Vietnam, and others, you could argue Taiwan) with which China likes to pick small fights on border issues. That is little to do with unsettled borders and much to do with the tussle between fundamentally different political systems that can not co-exist forever. In a democracy, the system is designed such that the people get to blame the politicians in power and kick them out. But autocracies are designed in ways that the system necessarily needs to create and sustain external enemies to rally the people behind, kind of like a safety valve. And so China needs to keep picking small fights with Japan and India, and it needs to keep threatening Taiwan. It is the nature of the beast. Curiously the same China seems to have no border problems with Russia, another land starving for democracy.

India has to have one uniform civil code for all its citizens, Hindus, Muslims and everyone else. The Sharia law has no place in a democracy. The separation between church/temple/mosque and the state is fundamental to how a modern democracy works. On the other hand, there is a need for some soul searching as to why Muslims in India lag on all socio-economic indicators. The Indian democracy does not seem to be working for Indian Muslims. That Hindus in Pakistan and Bangladesh have it rougher is no excuse.

An America-India-Japan-Australia alliance, not to contain or counter China, but to keep the Indian and Pacific oceans open for commerce and rules based order is a welcome step. China's saber rattling has been unnerving too many across too many countries over the years.

The oldest and the largest democracies are but natural partners. India is the new Britain. Two dudes who look like MLK and Gandhi rule the two largest democracies on the planet. We must be living in a post-colonial world.


Saturday, December 06, 2014

Europe, Japan And Immigration

Relative proportions of immigrants from Northw...
Relative proportions of immigrants from Northwestern Europe (red) and Southern and Eastern Europe (blue) in the decades before and after the immigration restriction legislation. (Photo credit: Wikipedia)
I think one big reason Japan has been in the doldrums for decades now, and why Europe continues to be in a funk is that both are kind of hostile to immigration. And so you end up with skewed demographics, and you hurt the economy.

For its entire history, immigration has been America's number one strength. The president's recent positive step aside, Washington DC's hostility towards immigrants is a resolve to take America down the Japanese/European path.

Sunday, January 22, 2012

Barack Obama's Missed Trip To The Moon

MoonImage by penguinbush via FlickrJFK famously sent a man to the moon. When George W Bush became president he imitated JFK. He said he wanted to send a man to Mars. Like Texas were the earth, the moon was Louisiana, and Mars perhaps was Alabama. Not so.

Barack Obama ratcheted it down a little. He said maybe not Mars, maybe an asteroid.

That was a mistake. In an era when countries are struggling to even occupy the space between the moon and the earth, a manned mission to Mars is an out of place metaphor.

The mission to the Moon was less about the mission to the moon. It was more about the technological fallouts that benefitted the population at large.

The mission to the moon today would be to take gigabit broadband to every human being on earth. That goal should have been the centerpiece of the stimulus bill of 2009. And it is still not too late. Maybe there will be a push for it in 2013.

Be it global finance, or global warming, or global poverty, or lifelong education or universal health, or global terrorism, universal gigabit broadband touches them all.

America, Europe and Japan might have to pitch in 100 billion dollars each. And that is money that will get paid back in spades. So this is not a foreign aid concept. This is an investment with great returns.
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Saturday, September 24, 2011

America And Europe Need To Learn From Japan

One of a number of posters created by the Econ...Image via WikipediaAmerica and Europe have been going through for two years what Japan has been going through for two decades, and so far America and Europe have been trying the same remedies that have not worked to get Japan out of its flunk.

For one there are no domestic remedies. America alone can not do it. Europe alone can not do it. Japan alone can not do it. The three economic giants of the past half century - America, Europe and Japan - have to come together and launch a global "Marshall Plan" and that is the only way out of this flunk. They should put together a trillion dollars each and create a pot of three trillion dollars. The biggest chunk of this money should go to connect every human being on the planet to broadband. This is Barack Obama's option to go to the moon.

We lack the data for the biggest problems in the world today.
  1. A three trillion dollar global "Marshall Plan" to last a decade.
  2. Universal broadband it's key component.
  3. Other infrastructure projects.
  4. A new global financial architecture.
  5. Universal education, health and credit.
The Mini Me Stimulus Bill Lacks Imagination
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Tuesday, September 13, 2011

The Mini Me Stimulus Bill Lacks Imagination



It is half the size of the original stimulus bill, which was too small in size in the first place. Tax cuts don't cut it.



A stimulus is like an electric shock to the heart. It is only appropriate for extreme circumstances. And logic for normal times does not apply. Too much of political debate in America has been about trying to apply normal time logic to abnormal times.

When you see the threat of a Great Depression, you go into massive deficit spending. But there is no budget for it is no argument. FDR was not given a World War II budget. He spent massively anyway.

Right now it feels like America is in terminal decline.

This great economic crisis is a time to rearchitect America in a massive way. This crisis is a grand opportunity. Tax cuts to make cry baby Republicans happy, extending unemployment benefits, keeping teachers and firefighters on payroll, those are all wonderful goals, but none of them are to do with the jobs, companies and industries of tomorrow.

Europe and America are now suffering from what Japan has been suffering from for close to two decades now. Band aid solutions don't work in these situations.

Bold, Drastic Action Necessary

Japan, Europe, America: Three Trillion Dollars

The three old economies should cough up some money and put a big chunk of it into connecting every human being to broadband internet. Down the line this infrastructure can be sold off to the private sector. The costs incurred now will be recouped.

Finance: A New World Order

The dollar's special place in the world has to come to an end. It is that special status that gives rise to fiscal irresponsibility on Capitol Hill.

A Total Spread Of Democracy

Total internet access will bring about a total spread of democracy. The people will rise on their own. They will help themselves. They will talk to each other and build the institutions of democracy.

Rule Of Law Between Nations

National armies are hangovers from the era of the nation state. Globalization taken to its logical end asks for rule of law between nations.

The Education Bubble

Peter Thiel is right. The education bubble is way bigger and way more dangerous than the housing bubble. Universal broadband has to be brought to the service of lifelong education for everyone on the planet. Traditional schools and colleges are simply not delivering. Their reaches are way too small.
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