Showing posts with label bihar 2015. Show all posts
Showing posts with label bihar 2015. Show all posts

Saturday, July 18, 2015

Amit Shah Is Right About Bihar 2015

At 11, Akbar Road, Amit Shah, the BJP's army commander, frequently refers to the great Battle of Buxar in 1764 AD while charting the party's strategy for Bihar. The BJP president believes that the course of Indian politics over the next 15 years will be decided in the battle of Bihar circa 2015.


Now let me go look up the "Battle of Buxar in 1764 AD." जो मालुम नहीं सो मालुम नहीं।



Battle of Buxar
The battle fought at Buxar, then within the territory of Bengal, a town located on the bank of the Ganges river about 130 km west of Patna, was a decisive victory for the British East India Company. ..... the combined army of the Mughals, Awadh and Mir Qasim consisting of 40,000 men were defeated by British army consisting 10,000 men. ..... The lack of basic co-ordination among the three desperate allies was responsible for their decisive debacle. ..... British losses are said to have been 1,847 killed and wounded, while the three Indian allies accounted for 2,000 dead ...... Immediately after the battle Hector Munro decided to greatly assist the Marathas, who were described as a "warlike race", well known for their relentless and unwavering hatred towards the Mughal Empire and its Nawabs and the Sultanate of Mysore. ...... The prime victim, Shah Alam II, signed the Treaty of Allahabad that secured Diwani Rights for the Company to collect and manage the revenues of almost 100,000,000 acres (400,000 km2) of real estate, which form parts of the modern states of West Bengal, Odisha, Bihar, Jharkhand, and Uttar Pradesh, as es. Mir Qasim, who was not a general, was quietly replaced. He also received a small share of the total land revenue, initially fixed at 2 million rupees. ....... The Treaty of Allahabad heralded the establishment of the rule of the East India Company in one-eighth of India proper with a single stroke. The battles of Plassey and Buxar secured a permanent foothold for the British East India Company in the rich province of Bengal, and secured its political ascendancy in the entire region. Buxar should be seen in conjunction with the third battle of Panipat in January 1761 in terms of its impact on consolidating British presence in north-east India. By the treaty of 1752, the Marathas had essentially taken over administration of all the subahs of the Mughal empire, and had established their right to collect Chauth across these subahs. In return, they would protect the north-west frontier of the Mughal empire from Afghan invasion. This resulted in nine years of Maratha-Afghan struggle to establish control over the empire, and the subah of Punjab, which was claimed by both. However, due to the Marathas' defeat at the third battle of Panipat, and their subsequent ten-year hiatus from North Indian affairs, the British were able to establish a foothold in North Indian affairs. Buxar was an important step in that direction. ....... It should also be noted that when the Marathas finally did send a large force back into North India in 1771, they were able to persuade Shah Alam II to leave British protection and enter Maratha protection. They then established Maratha regency over Delhi, which they essentially held till their defeat in the Second Anglo-Maratha War of 1803.
Essay on the The Battle of Buxar (1764 AD)
The Battle of Buxar was significant event in the rise of British rule in India. The foundation of the British Empire in India which was led by Clive at Plassey was strengthened at Buxar. The Battle of Buxar was the outcome of the clash between the British and Mir Kasim, the Nawab of Bengal. ...... Mir Kasim was the most efficient of all Nawabs of Bengal from 1756 onwards. He suppressed the rebellious zamindars of Bengal and Bihar, who had challenged the authority of the Nawab. Unlike his predecessor Mir Jafar, he always tried to maintain his position and dignity by keeping himself away from the British influence. For that purpose he transferred his capital from Murshidabad to Monghyr. ....... To strengthen his power he organized his army in the same way as the Europeans did. He made arrangements for the manufacture of fire arms at Monghyr with a view to equipping his army adequately. He wanted to remain at a safe distance from Calcutta so that there would be less of supervision and interference from the British authority. He wanted to develop an army with a view to overthrowing the power of British. This attitude of Mir Kasim incurred displeasure of the British. ....... To avenge this defeat Mir Kasim ordered a general massacre of all the English prisoners of Patna. There after he fled to Oudh to make a common cause with Shuja-ud-daula, the Nawab of Oudh, and the Mughal Emperor Shah Alam. These three people formed a confederacy against the British. After the flight of Mir Kasim that English immediately placed the aged Mir Jafar on the throne of Bengal.
What was the reason for the Battle of Buxar?
Mir Qasim was an independent ruler and was the strongest and ablest of all Nawabs. ..... Mir Qasim, Shuja-ud-Daulah and Shah Alam II joined hands to fight against the English to establish their sovereignty over the whole of Bengal and reduce the power of the British.


इनका तैयारी देखो:
"......

the election strategy for Bihar is more micro-detailed than any attempted in an Indian election so far

. "I have a plan for every ward in the 243 seats of the state. For the last six months, my panna pramukhs have been going door to door in each village and mobilising support," he says of the party workers who identify and canvass among the electorate as per the voter's list. "In every village we know the houses that are likely to support us, who is undecided, and who is opposed to us." ....... He then shows an Excel spreadsheet with detailed break-up of the caste composition of voters in every assembly seat. Next to each village is a list of local and central leaders being sent to canvass there. Leaders are picked on the basis of their caste, and their likely appeal among the dominant caste of that particular seat. Shah claims he has a plan for every seat for every day of the next two months. Every evening, his office receives an update on the day's activities and the response among the voters. ....... In Patna, local leaders say the party has, on average, reached a strength of nearly 27,000 members in each constituency. The strategy now is simple, they say: make each of these members, along with their families, vote. The BJP is also welcoming the modern while retaining its grip on the traditional. Seen conventionally as a party of traders, the urban middle class, and upper castes, this time it is also flaunting OBC partners such as Upendra Kushwaha of the Rashtriya Lok Samata Party as well as Dalit leaders such as Jitan Ram Manjhi and Ram Vilas Paswan's Lok Janshakti Party. Bowing to the caste considerations of Bihar politics, it is projecting Narendra Modi, the "development man", as a backward caste leader. ...... To keep up with the times, the party has categorised 6 million mobile phone owners in the state as active BJP supporters. These, says a state BJP leader, are people who sent an SMS to the BJP call centre when asked to respond-"Those who have sent us an SMS will surely vote." ......... As the countdown draws near, Shah's team has divided Bihar's 243 assembly seats into three categories, and earmarked specific campaign strategies. The first are the seats that the BJP traditionally dominates. Here the strategy is to spend minimal time and effort and ensure that the morale of the cadre stays high and local leaders maintain a constant connect with the voters. The second, and the most important, category is the seats where the party expects to face pitched battles. The NDA and the Janata alliance are equally strong on paper in these constituencies, and the battle can go either way. Shah has rolled out the heavy artillery of senior BJP leaders for these seats. Special emphasis is being given to candidate selection for these seats. The NDA, to give one instance, plans to put up mostly non-Yadav candidates in case the Rashtriya Janata Dal (RJD) fields a strong Yadav candidate for a seat. Conversely, the party plans to field Yadav candidates for seats where the Janata Dal (United) has a non-Yadav or Kurmi candidate. In a caste cauldron like Bihar, the idea is to ensure that the BJP fields candidates whose caste unites the voters of castes opposed to that of the candidate put up by the Janata alliance. The third category comprises seats which the BJP has little chance of winning. For these, the party is working on a strategy to split the ranks of its opponents by propping up rebel candidates, and by allying with frenemies such as Pappu Yadav's Jan Adhikar Party....... Like Major Hector Munro of the East India Company in the Battle of Buxar, Amit Shah too realises that he is up against a numerically superior force."
मेरा reading है अभी: 60-40. Advantage BJP. How many election rallies Narendra Modi addresses will be a major factor in if the gulf is further widened. 

Friday, July 03, 2015

Advani's Ghost And Nitish

English: cropped photograph of L K Advani with...
English: cropped photograph of L K Advani with Hillary Clinton outside his residence. (Photo credit: Wikipedia)
Today, what L.K. Advani has said — that he is not confident that the Emergency cannot return — is not without reason.
Let's start with the fact that there is absolutely no chance of the emergency being imposed again.

So why did Advani warn of it? He was trying to get attention. News mein aana tho unko. Ek saal se news mein nahin aaye the. Suna suna sa lag raha tha. And maybe he never made peace with the fact that Modi, not Advani, became Prime Minister. Which is weird. Advani as the BJP PM candidate would have likely seen a Third Front government, possibly under Mulayam, who would have promptly taken India down from the Manmohan Singh rate of growth to the old Hindu rate of growth.

I worry for Nitish. You can't not respect the people's mandate. The people of Bihar gave a clear mandate to Modi last year. That is why Modi is in power in Delhi. Minus Bihar that would not have been possible. And that mandate lasts five years. So Nitish should not be second guessing the people of Bihar.

If Nitish does not get to fight the 100 seats his party already has right now, and Laloo wakes up the old jhagada like there was before he "drank poison" and settled on Nitish as CM candidate, and if Narendra Modi decides to give two full weeks to Bihar right before the elections, Nitish is toast.

Kya Advani Advani kar rahe hain? Is he not the mastermind of the Babri Mosque demolition?

The Next Chief Minister Of Bihar?

Monday, June 22, 2015

कुशवाहा

English: Map of Bihar
English: Map of Bihar (Photo credit: Wikipedia)
Declare Kushwaha NDA's CM face for assembly polls in Bihar: RLSP
BJP's CP Thakur ready to be Bihar CM candidate
According to BJP insiders, Thakur's statement is a reflection of a deep-rooted tussle between leaders of upper castes and OBCs within the party...... In his early 80s, Thakur belongs to the powerful landed upper caste Bhumihars, who are said to be overwhelmingly backing the BJP in post-Mandal politics in the state. ...... "The BJP is likely to announce the name of former deputy chief minister Sushil Kumar Modi as the chief ministerial candidate soon," a BJP leader close to Sushil Modi said. ....... Sushil Kumar Modi, who is from a backward caste, is the most influential face of the BJP in Bihar and commands respect even among the upper castes, say some leaders. ....... However, the former Bihar deputy chief minister's disadvantage lies in the fact that two BJP leaders from the backward caste are dead set again .. .... "The BJP in Bihar is a divided house. To project a leader from either the OBCs or the upper castes as a chief ministerial candidate will antagonise the other group. The BJP is not in a position to project any one person against Nitish Kumar, who was declared chief ministerial candidate by the alliance of Janata Dal-United, Rastriya Janata Dal, the Congress and National Congress Party," said a senior BJP leader, who did not wish to be named. ....... In the caste-ridden Bihar politics, there are over half a dozen leaders from the upper castes and the backward castes who have staked claims as chief ministerial candidate of the BJP. "All of them are lobbying hard," the BJP leader said.
कुशवाहा को दिल्ली में मन नहीं लग रहा होगा। गुमनाम रहते होंगे। मीटिंग अटेंड करते होंगे तो कितनों को पता भी नहीं चलता होगा कि ये कौन हैं। तो सोंच रहे होंगे दिल्ली से पटना शिफ्ट हो जाते तो थोड़ा visibility बढ़ जाता। उनको कुर्सी भी खाली ही दिख रहा है। सुशील मोदी इंटरेस्ट नहीं दिखा रहे है -- क्या बात है? तो उन्होंने अपने पार्टी में unanimous resolution पास करबा लिया।

 ये कोइ लालु यादव तो नहीं हैं कि जहाँ जाते हो वहाँ टीवी क्यामेरा वाले लोग पिछा कर रहे हो।

जब नाव डगमगाता है तो कितनों को पता भी नहीं चलता। कुछ को लगता है तैराकी का मौका मिल रहा है। देखते देखते कोइ सीपी ठाकुर नाम का तैराक भी सामने आ गया। ये ठाकुर तो आडवाणी से भी सीनियर लगते हैं। अडवाणी के गुट के तो नहीं?

पप्पु यादव: Persona Non Grata?
JD (U) 80-90, RJD 50-60, Congress/Left 10-20
Bihar: The NDA's Turn To Crack?

Tuesday, June 16, 2015

नरेन्द्र मोदी, बिहार और नीतिश कुमार



इस एपिसोड में कपिल का एक लाइन है: "Why are you laughing? You uneducated people!" ये लाइन इंडिया वालों पर नहीं मीडिया वालों पर लागु होता है। मीडिया वाले कह रहे हैं, ये जो बिहार में इलेक्शन होने जा रहा है, It is a referendum on Narendra Modi. कैसी बेतुक बात कर रहे हैं। वो २०१४ में हुवा था, फिर २०१९ में होगा। अभी का चुनाव है वो इस लिए है कि नीतिश को आगे १० साल मिलना चाहिए कि नहीं। जनता जनार्दन होती है। बिहार वाले जो निर्णय कर दे वो सही है। पिछले साल भी सही था, इस साल भी सही होगा। Bihar is a mature democracy. Biharis know the difference between the central government and the state government. चाहे मीडिया वालों को मालुम हो ना हो बिहारियों को बखुबी मालुम है।

आज बिहार के बल पर मोदी को दिल्ली का ताज मिला। पटना में किसका सरकार बनता है किसका नहीं बनता है इससे कोइ फर्क नहीं पड़ता। Narendra Modi should do the best he can for Bihar regardless of who is in power in Patna. उसी लिए तो बिहार के लोगों ने उनको वोट दिया।

दल से बड़ा देश। सही बात है।

नीतिश बिहार की जनता से ५ नहीं दश साल माँग रहे हैं।

Right now, as things stand, Bihar is 55-45 in Nitish' favor. That is my observation. भिजन में उतना दम होता है। Bihar@2025 एक शब्द में उतना दम है। 45-55 को 55-45 कर दिया उस एक शब्द ने। विकास की राजनीति बिहार में १० साल से हो रही है। Caste arithmetic पर मत जाओ। वो बिहार में १० साल पुरानी फिल्म है।

"They Don't Do Random"
अगर बिहार में बीजेपी हार जाती है
१५% और १०% में फर्क
नीतिश कुमार और नरेंद्र मोदी: दोनों के दोनों
आल इंडिया मजलिस मुसलमान
एकीकृत जनता पार्टी का नेत्तृत्व नीतिश को ही करना चाहिए
China: A Complex Picture
विलियम, हरिवंश, एल, अमिताभ
नरेंद्र मोदी, नीतिश कुमार, सुशील मोदी, अमिताभ बच्चन
Rohingya: India's Responsibility
All Of Bihar Is One Big City
Bihar@2025
India: A 15% Growth Rate Is Possible
Tough, Challenging Roles For Amitabh
Amitabh Should Do A Movie With Anushka
The Tamils Of Sri Lanka And Me
Bihar Is Now 55-45
बिहार के उभरते चेहरे


I am a Nitish fan. And I am in good company. Bill Gates and Melinda Gates are also Nitish fans.

Burning Nitish' Boat

अगर मैदान बिहार हो तो वहाँ नीतिश कुमार के आगे अमित शाह का कुछ नहीं चल्ने वाला। मोदी को दिल्ली के लिए दो तिहाई दिया, नीतिश को पटना के लिए दो तिहाई मिल सकती है -- उसकी संभावना है। अभी तो नहीं है, लेकिन चुनाव में अभी वक्त है। 

Monday, June 15, 2015

एकीकृत जनता पार्टी का नेत्तृत्व नीतिश को ही करना चाहिए

मुलायम post-retirement age आज नहीं दश साल पहले पहुँच गए। तब तो गद्दी अखिलेश को दिया। लालु भी दो चार साल पहले उस रेखा के उस पार पहुँच गए हैं। So who is the last man standing? That is Nitish. अभी नीतिश के पास लगभग दश साल है। उम्र के हिसाब से। मैं biology की बात कर रहा हुँ।

मुलायाम ये बात नहीं समझते हैं तो अखिलेश को २०१७ में दिक्कत है। एकीकृत जनता पार्टी का नेत्तृत्व नीतिश को ही करना चाहिए। ओरिजिनल जो जनता पार्टी थी उसका चुनाव चिन्ह चक्का बहुत अच्छा था। उसी को फिर से वापस ले आओ। उसको अशोक चक्र बोलो ताकि लोग इम्प्रेस हो जाए। अशोक चक्र। यादव लोगों को बोलो कृष्ण चक्र -- वो वोट बैंक सुरक्षित रहेगा। कुम्हार लोगों को बोलो turning wheel. किसान लोगों को बोलो बयल गाडी का चक्का। मजदुरों को बोलो फैक्ट्री का चक्का। सड़क बनाते मजदुरों को बोलो wheel barrow. सबके सब खुश। Auto Rickshaw बालों को बोलो उनका चक्का। सब को बोलो ट्रैन का पहिया। वैज्ञानिक लोगों को बोलो Archimedes का व्हील।


Tuesday, June 02, 2015

Advantage Sushil Modi


नीतिश, लालु, माझी, पप्पु, काँग्रेस, वाम पार्टी सब एक जगह रहते तो ये रेस ५०-५० था। लेकिन ये लोग तो बुरी तरह बिखर गए हैं। Right now Sushil Modi has a clear advantage. And he is a good man. Modest, hard working, lightning smart. इनकी बीवी ही क्रिस्चियन -- तो इन पर वो इल्जाम नहीं लगा सकते जो कभी कभी RSS टाइप वालों पर लगाया जाता है। सबका साथ तो इनके घर से ही शुरू होता है। और क्या है कि राजनीति में अधिकांश backbenchers पहुँच जाते हैं। लेकिन सुशील मोदी तो university topper थे। नीतिश ने जो अद्भुत काम किया २००५ से २०१२ तक तो वहां सुशील सेकंड इन कमांड थे, और road और health तो इनके ही कैंप के लोग सम्हाल रहे थे। अब शायद बिहार में सुशील मोदी की बारी है।

नीतिश अलग से लड़ेंगे, लालु अलग से लड़ेंगे, माझी अलग, पप्पु अलग ---- तो सुशील मोदी तो स्वीप करेंगे। वैसा दिख रहा है। दिल्ली में नमो, पटना में सुमो। मैं तो यही चाहुँगा सुशीलजी बिहार को १५% ग्रोथ रेट दें। संभव है।