Showing posts with label donald trump. Show all posts
Showing posts with label donald trump. Show all posts

Saturday, March 28, 2020

Imagine FDR Delegating World War II To Governors

World War II did not go to every country on earth. This pandemic has. World War II did not freeze national economies and supply chains, although there were unmistakable disruptions. My point is, on scale, this is big. World War II seems to be the only available metaphor. But that is like using earth as a metaphor to talk about Jupiter. Jupiter is also a planet, alright.

And Trump has been botching it.
  • He spent precious weeks in denial. He was going to tweet the pandemic away. 
  • A nationwide lockdown lasting three weeks would have been the least disruptive economically and the most effective medically. When testing everyone is not an option, putting everyone in isolation for three weeks is enough time for the infected to start showing symptoms and qualify for further self-isolation. 
  • Just like FDR needed airplanes in huge numbers, this pandemic is asking for supplies: masks, gloves, ventilators, hospital beds. This pandemic would be a good reason to call a truce on the trade war with China. China seems to have an immediate capacity to produce those things plenty. If not, the wartime act for this needed to be put to practice. Domestic production needed to be ramped up. 
  • Trump is in a hurry to get America back to work. Because if the economy does not go back to pre-pandemic, he is toast in November. The fastest way to get America back to work is through widespread testing. Everyone who needs to or wants to get tested should be able to get tested with results showing up within the hour. Then you become much better at identifying and isolating people. And the rest can go to work. 
  • But is is already late. The sky has already fallen. The unemployment numbers already have passed Depression levels. Numerous businesses have already gone belly up. 
  • With Trump not only is the national dimension missing, but the global dimension is also missing. This pandemic is global. Only a coordinated global dimension will work. In the aftermath of 9/11 the FBI and the CIA learned to work together. Now national governments will have to learn that same lesson. Otherwise you are looking at massive deaths and massive economic disruption. 
  • Trump is unfit for the moment. He has failed to rise to the occasion. Trump has botched it bigly.


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The Coronavirus Pandemic Is Like The Spanish Flu (1918-1922)
The Most Responsible Head Of State On The Planet

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Wednesday, March 04, 2020

A Biden Bloomberg Ticket Would Be Best

I don't see Bernie making a comeback. He had his warm month. Now it is Biden as far as the eyes can see. The guy reminds people of Barack Obama, and I wonder why, I wonder how. Not all that is white is white.

Bernie is inflexible: when Medicare For All is not catching fire you tack and offer the public option for now. He lacks nuance: enough said. He has blind spots: you don't praise Castro in Florida. That is not to say Castro can not be praised, but context is important. I think Cuba has had great education and health for a poor country. That Cuba beats the mighty US on infant mortality is an objective fact, even in the Trump fact-free era.

Trump wants to hop onto the time machine and go back to the 1950s. Looks like the Dems just want to go back to the 2010s. It is the Obama stimulus that has created the jobs of the past four years. Biden can take credit while he is at it. He was Vice.

Now the race is on for the number two spot, and I make a case for Mike Bloomberg. "Money talks." That is a Mike Bloomberg quote.

There is the Bloomberg infrastructure, unprecedented, and the best in the business. Biden will have it no matter if he puts Bloomberg on the ticket or not. But don't tell me that makes no difference to Team Bloomberg. For a campaign that started so late, a second place is the first place. It will be victory.

A Biden-Bloomberg ticket will 100% win in November. I will bet you 10 dollars. Who will you rather have, a real billionaire or a fake one? Some people will have the fake one, and that's okay. This is a democracy.

If Biden has been VP of the nation, Bloomberg has been a three term Mayor of NYC. NYC represents all the Dem hubs in the country. Dems are primarily urban. Respect that.

Bernie and Warren can still rage in the US Senate for the public option, why not! Mayor Pete can still be Secretary of Urban Affairs. Klobuchar can keep representing the great state of Minnesota, now more visibly. Kamala Devi Harris can be Attorney General.

But Mike is the only number two who can guarantee victory come November. Every other way it is a 50-50 chance. And don't put your bet on the Coronavirus. It will be gone by summer. You need Mike.








































After Tuesday’s vote Mike Bloomberg followed them. The hope is that he will put his formidable electoral machine and even more formidable wallet behind Mr Biden.


Why Biden Is the Change Candidate




if nothing else the Democratic impeachment effort results in the end of Collins’ Senate career and gives Democrats the 50 seats they need for control of the Senate with a Democrat in the White House next year- perhaps another indication that Nancy Pelosi is playing three dimensional chess.
Parscale: In October, 2019, Thomas B. Edsall wrote a long Times column called “Trump Is Winning the Online War,” listing several of the “technological advances that have allowed Trump and the Republican Party to leave Democrats in the dust.” If money were no object, some of these deficits could be overcome quickly; others might not be surmountable by November........ “In comparison to Trump’s operation, Mike Bloomberg is the only Democrat positioned to compete with him on every single digital platform.”
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Tuesday, January 28, 2020

Trump's Map For Palestine



Trump peace plan: Palestinian state, Israeli control of settlements

Trump's peace plan is a realistic vision Trump has shown a propensity to violate accepted norms. And when you have a conflict that has existed for so long, with all the players refusing to deviate from many assumptions - you need a leader who can operate outside those lines. ..... Trump has approached the conflict through a sober lens rooted in reality. ..... If the Trump plan is even partially embraced, this would demonstrate that the Israeli public has completely moved on from the failed thinking of the last many decades, pushed by the DC/European based peace process industry. ....... The key to actually ending the conflict is having the bravery to live in reality and allow any peace process that is proposed to be based on that truth. It is that need for courageous action that has stymied every US President - until now.

The international community should say no to the Trump plan runs counter to previous Israeli-Palestinian agreements and understandings on core issues of the conflict: borders, settlements, Jerusalem, and even refugees. It serves a right-wing political ideology and electoral goals, while distancing peace. ...... endangers Israel’s future in the Middle East rather than improves it. ..... ....The administration adopted a series of measures that affected the situation on the ground and, in fact, promoted the principles of the plan even before its publication.

Why the Palestinian leadership should not reject Trump’s peace plan We are hopeful that many Palestinians will see the advantages of counting to 10 before officially reacting to the proposed peace plan and the vision it contains for both Palestinians and Israelis............. it would not surprise anyone if the Palestinian Authority’s first reaction will be outright rejection of the plan without even reading it. ....... what of Hamas and Palestinian Islamic Jihad? One does not have to wonder what their likely reactions will be. ....... review the plan, study it and systematically outline its objections to it ....... Palestinians can keep waiting for a better deal, but in all likelihood, it may never come........ Palestinians should recognize what is possible and refrain from being driven solely by what they view as just. ....... The likelihood of another presidential term for President Trump is extremely high......... A main Palestinian objection to their participation in the Bahrain Economic Conference held in 2019 was the introduction of the economic portion of the peace plan prior to the political portion. With the release of the political portion of the peace plan, Palestinians can now understand the tremendous advantages of the economic benefits that a signed peace agreement can provide to all Palestinians.......... Within a decade’s time, Palestinians can become economically successful, trading freely and securing investment from all over the world. There is no reason why Palestinians cannot become another “start-up” society. ......... Americans and Israelis, among so many others, can be trading with and investing with Palestinians...... Palestinians have much to lose if they reject the proposed peace plan.

The PLAN

Trump unveils Middle East peace plan with two-state solution, tunnel connecting West Bank and Gaza "This is a great deal," Trump said. "And the Palestinians may not have this opportunity ever again." ...... The Israeli leader added that past deals had not had the "right balance between Israeli security and Palestinians aspirations." ....... Under the plan, the Palestinians would have to reach certain benchmarks to achieve a state. Those benchmarks include rooting out terrorism, stopping what they call “pay to slay,” implementing steps toward free speech, and other political reforms. ...... The plan is a basis for negotiations with Israel, Trump officials said, claiming many of the Palestinians' red lines are met, including their calls for a Palestinian state and a capital in parts of East Jerusalem........ The vision calls for more than doubling the amount of territory the Palestinians control. ...... This is the first time Israel has agreed to a Palestinian state with defined borders. ...... A small strip of land between the Egyptian border and the proposed land swap areas south of Gaza would remain Israeli territory and be subject to Israeli security control. This was requested by Egypt as a buffer against cross-border terrorism. ...... As part of the plan, Israel has agreed to halt settlement construction for four years. But in one detail sure to provoke Palestinian objections, the plan recognizes Israeli sovereignty over major settlement blocs in the West Bank.....

Both Netanyahu and his political challenger, Benny Gantz, have agreed to implement this plan, regardless of the outcome of the upcoming March 2 election.

........ the Trump administration’s moves to relocate the embassy and recognize Israeli sovereignty over the Golan were important confidence-building measures that led to this plan. ........ While Trump and Netanyahu were giving their comments, Palestinian leaders were meeting in the West Bank to discuss the plan....... Hamas, the Palestinian Sunni-Islamic fundamentalist militant organization that has waged war with Israel for decades, rejected the plan and called it a "theatrical presentation to sell illusions" in a comment to Fox News.

Arafat rejects Clinton peace plan The US president-elect, George W Bush, said that Mr Clinton was "giving it the very best shot he can, and I certainly hope it works".

Arafat didn't negotiate - he just kept saying no The true story of Camp David was that for the first time in the history of the conflict the American president put on the table a proposal, based on UN Security Council resolutions 242 and 338, very close to the Palestinian demands, and Arafat refused even to accept it as a basis for negotiations, walked out of the room ......... The proposals included the establishment of a demilitarised Palestinian state on some 92% of the West Bank and 100% of the Gaza Strip, with some territorial compensation for the Palestinians from pre-1967 Israeli territory; the dismantling of most of the settlements and the concentration of the bulk of the settlers inside the 8% of the West Bank to be annexed by Israel; the establishment of the Palestinian capital in east Jerusalem, in which some Arab neighborhoods would become sovereign Palestinian territory and others would enjoy "functional autonomy"; Palestinian sovereignty over half the Old City of Jerusalem (the Muslim and Christian quarters) and "custodianship," though not sovereignty, over the Temple Mount; a return of refugees to the prospective Palestinian state though with no "right of return" to Israel proper; and the organisation by the international community of a massive aid programme to facilitate the refugees' rehabilitation.......

Arafat said no. Enraged, Clinton banged on the table and said: "You are leading your people and the region to a catastrophe." ...... Today Barak portrays Arafat's behaviour at Camp David as a "performance" geared to exacting from the Israelis as many concessions as possible without ever seriously intending to reach a peace settlement or sign an "end to the conflict"....... "He did not negotiate in good faith; indeed, he did not negotiate at all. He just kept saying no to every offer, never making any counterproposals of his own"

...... He seems to think in terms of generations and hesitantly predicts that only "80 years" after 1948 will the Palestinians be historically ready for a compromise. By then, most of the generation that experienced the catastrophe of 1948 at first hand will have died; there will be "very few 'salmons' around who still want to return to their birthplaces to die". ....... Barak recalled seeing David Ben-Gurion, Israel's founder and first prime minister (1948-53 and 1955-63), on television in June 1967 arguing for the immediate withdrawal from all the territories occupied in the six-day war in exchange for peace, save for East Jerusalem........ "Many of us - me included - thought that he was suffering from [mental] weakness or perhaps a subconscious jealousy of his successor [Levi Eshkol, who had presided over the unprecedented victory and conquests]. Today one understands that he simply saw more clearly and farther than the leadership at that time."



Trump plan will 'finish off Palestinian cause', PM warns US president's proposal will dash hopes for an independent state, Palestinians officials say. ....... Palestinian leaders say they were not invited to Washington and no plan can work without them. ..... Shtayyeh said Trump and Netanyahu were using the proposal as a distraction from their domestic troubles. ........ "This plan is to protect Trump against being impeached and to protect Netanyahu from going to jail, and it is not a peace plan," Shtayyeh said at a cabinet meeting in Ramallah.

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Monday, January 27, 2020

The Appropriately Named Mr. Bolton



For the first time it feels like Trump actually could get kicked out.

And by the way, this blog has been getting a lot of traffic from Ukraine. It is actually the number one country source even beating the US for now.

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Monday, January 20, 2020

Why Trump Ought To Be Impeached



I would like to leave the nuances of Ukraine to the elected politicians on Capitol Hill -- they get paid well enough -- and at some level I recognize that the Kentuckian McConnell -- and to think I spent five and a half years in Kentucky -- will manage to repeat the partisanship exhibited by his party in the lower chamber where Nancy Pelosi single-handedly architected the process, but I still harbor the fantasy that Trump might get impeached for reasons bigger than Ukraine, and even Russia.

The president should be elected democratically, which means one person one vote. He was never elected. In the majority of countries, if you can collect three million votes, you can become president. He was way short.

The low unemployment numbers widely advertised are a sham. The actual numbers are at least twice as large. Post-2008 America has seen an epidemic of lower-paying jobs.

The stock markets are another sham. Companies are buying their own stocks. That is company money paying for the rise in share price to the benefit of the top share-owning executives. Productive investments are not being made. Buying your own stocks is eating potato chips.

Donald Trump rightly pointed out the massive loss of manufacturing jobs, but he did not have a solution then, he does not have a solution now. The losses are structural. This is more like the loss of agricultural jobs at the onset of the first and second industrial revolutions powered by steam and electricity. Universal health, universal education, and universal basic income will build the foundation for real solutions to create the knowledge and service jobs of tomorrow. Here is looking at you Bernie and Andrew Yang.

The guy is everything you feared old white men were: racist and sexist. And he lies like nobody in the public sphere. He is a post-truther who needs to be ditched.

But the number one reason in the climate. The clock is ticking. Four more years of the leading villain country behind climate change doing nothing is 12 years minus four years left to fight climate catastrophe. There is a cliff ahead. Send him to Australia for some education. He is fit to study abroad.

There is also World War III. We don't want World War III.

His getting impeached will open up the possibility of someone like Ted Cruz grabbing the Republican nomination. I have plenty of policy disagreements with Ted Cruz. But at least he is not foul-mouthed. He has basic decency. He is textbook conservative. Legitimate disagreements become possible. Genuine conservatives are not fact-free. And when you face facts, you move from climate denial to offering conservative solutions to climate change, which might rely more on tech entrepreneurs delivering faster on cleantech advances. I can live with that.

And America does not need more dynasties. America does not need to get triggered.

US Impeachment Sausage Drama: Quantum Politics?
The Dollar, Weaponized
Taiwan's Medicare For All
Trade War Temporary Truce: Phase 1
Africa's Moment To Shine
The Impeachment Slog
Trump's Iran Speech
Trump: Morally Lost And Confused?
Impeachment Maneuvers Expose America

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Sunday, January 19, 2020

US Impeachment Sausage Drama: Quantum Politics?

Quantum physics was initially rejected by eminent physicists like Einstein because it appeared subjective. What you see depends on how you are looking at it. There was no objective reality.

Is Trump guilty? Not guilty? Depends on who is looking. This is new territory. What we have is quantum politics.



Mitch McConnell may win the impeachment and lose the Senate
Is Mike Pence preparing to resign, assume the presidency, or both?
House Democrats may call new impeachment witnesses if Senate doesn't
Cruz: Hearing from witnesses could extend Senate trial to up to 8 weeks
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Saturday, January 11, 2020

The Impeachment Slog



The Supreme Court can legally step in if McConnell tries to push through an unfair impeachment trial: attorney “If such a sham trial comes to pass, is there any remedy? In fact, there is a stronger case than many think that the Supreme Court has the power to review impeachment trials, to ensure that Senate procedures meet a basic level of fairness.” ....... Chief Justice John Roberts has the right and duty to step in if he sees justice not being served. ...... “Since the Constitution grants the chief justice the privilege of presiding over the trial, he ought to have — and in my view does have, under proper constitutional interpretation — considerable power to steer the Senate toward reasonable standards for weighing evidence and rendering judgments. He cannot and should not be a potted plant.” ..... “If McConnell and his Republican colleagues insist on setting rules that turn the trial into a farce, then the matter would be ripe for judicial review, as outlined by the various justices in Nixon v. United States. The House — through the speaker or the impeachment managers — could take the matter to court,” he concluded.

We Found Major Trump Tax Inconsistencies. New York’s Mayor Wants a Criminal Investigation. Asked about ProPublica’s findings that the president’s company made itself appear more profitable to lenders and less to tax officials, Bill de Blasio said the city had examined the matter and sent its findings to the Manhattan district attorney.

Pack the Union: A Proposal to Admit New States for the Purpose of Amending the Constitution to Ensure Equal Representation For most of the twenty-first century, the world’s oldest surviving democracy has been led by a chief executive who received fewer votes than his opponent in an election for the position..... The first of these executives started a war based on false pretenses that killed hundreds of thousands of civilians..... The second — a serial abuser of women who hired as his campaign manager a lobbyist for violent dictatorships — authorized an immigration policy that forcibly separated migrant children from their families and indefinitely detained them in facilities described as “concentration camps.”...... federal elections in the United States are profoundly undemocratic and, thus, profoundly unfair ...... The Electoral College — when it contravenes the popular vote — is an obvious example of this unfairness. But it is just one of the mathematically undemocratic features in the Constitution. Equal representation of states in the Senate, for example, gives citizens of low-population states undue influence in Congress. Conversely, American citizens residing in U.S. territories have no meaningful representation in Congress or the Electoral College. ...... Just as it was unfair to exclude women and minorities from the franchise, so too is it unfair to weight votes differently. The 600,000 residents of Wyoming and the 40,000,000 residents of California should not be represented by the same number of senators. ....... Article V of the Constitution requires supermajorities to amend the Constitution, so pragmatists have been reduced to advocating meager solutions: perhaps Congress could admit Washington, D.C., as a state; maybe Puerto Rico too, if we’re really feeling ambitious. ......

four amendments: (1) a transfer of the Senate’s power to a body that represents citizens equally; (2) an expansion of the House so that all citizens are represented in equal-sized districts; (3) a replacement of the Electoral College with a popular vote; and (4) a modification of the Constitution’s amendment process that would ensure future amendments are ratified by states representing most Americans.



Donald Trump's Iran claims on Fox News met with skepticism and complaint President says four US embassies ‘probably’ targeted but Democratic senator calls for new intelligence briefing

John Bolton impeachment testimony will be blocked, Donald Trump says
Bloomberg Spent $200 Million and Isn’t on Track to Score a Single Delegate

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Thursday, January 09, 2020

Trump's Iran Speech

For far too long, all the way back to 1979, to be exact, nations have tolerated Iran’s destructive and destabilizing behavior in the Middle East and beyond. Those days are over. Iran has been the leading sponsor of terrorism, and their pursuit of nuclear weapons threatens the civilized world. We will never let that happen. ........ At my direction, the United States military eliminated the world’s top terrorist, Qasem Soleimani. As the head of the Quds Force, Soleimani was personally responsible for some of the absolutely worst atrocities. He trained terrorist armies, including Hezbollah, launching terrorist strikes against civilian targets. He fueled bloody civil wars all across the region. He viciously wounded and murdered thousands of U.S. troops, including the planting of roadside bombs that maim and dismember their victims. Soleimani directed the recent attacks on U.S. personnel in Iraq that badly wounded four service members and killed one American. And he orchestrated the violent assault on the U.S. Embassy in Baghdad. In recent days, he was planning new attacks on American targets. But we stopped him. Soleimani’s hands were drenched in both American and Iranian blood. He should have been terminated long ago. By removing Soleimani, we have sent a powerful message to terrorists: If you value your own life, you will not threaten the lives of our people. ....... the United States will immediately impose additional punishing economic sanctions on the Iranian regime. These powerful sanctions will remain until Iran changes its behavior. ........ In recent months alone, Iran has seized ships in international waters, fired an unprovoked strike on Saudi Arabia and shot down two U.S. drones. Iran’s hostilities substantially increased after the foolish Iran nuclear deal was signed in 2013, and they were given $150 billion dollars, not to mention $1.8 billion in cash. Instead of saying thank you to the United States, they chanted “Death to America.” In fact,

they chanted “Death to America” the day the agreement was signed. Then Iran went on a terror spree funded by the money from the deal, and created hell in Yemen, Syria, Lebanon, Afghanistan and Iraq.

The missiles fired last night at us and our allies were paid for with the funds made available by the last administration. The regime also greatly tightened the reins on their own country. Even recently killing 1,500 people at the many protests that are taking place all throughout Iran. ......... We must also make a deal that allows Iran to thrive and prosper and take advantage of its enormous untapped potential. Iran can be a great country. Peace and stability cannot prevail in the Middle East as long as Iran continues to foment violence, unrest, hatred and war. ........

Over the last three years under my leadership, our economy is stronger than ever before, and America’s achieved energy independence.

...... We are now the number one producer of oil and natural gas anywhere in the world. We are independent, and we do not need Middle East oil. The American military has been completely rebuilt under my administration, at a cost of $2.5 trillion dollars. ........ Our missiles are big, powerful, accurate, lethal and fast. Under construction are many hypersonic missiles. The fact that we have this great military and equipment, however, does not mean we have to use it. We do not want to use it. American strength, both military and economic, is the best deterrent......... ISIS is a natural enemy of Iran. The destruction of ISIS is good for Iran. And we should work together on this and other shared priorities. ....... to the people and leaders of Iran: We want you to have a future and a great future, one that you deserve, one of prosperity at home in harmony with the nations of the world. The United States is ready to embrace peace with all who seek it.



2017: Certifiable Nonsense Trump’s speech on the Iran deal might be his most dishonest, and also his most damaging. ...... It flagrantly misrepresents what the deal was meant to do, the extent of Iran’s compliance, and the need for corrective measures. If he gets his way, he will blow up one of the most striking diplomatic triumphs of recent years, aggravate tensions in the Middle East, make it even harder to settle the North Korean crisis peacefully, and make it all but impossible for allies and adversaries to trust anything the United States says for as long as Trump is in office. .......... all of his advisers, all the European allies who co-signed the deal, and even the vast majority of Israeli military and intelligence officers—including some who opposed the deal in the first place—have urged him not to pull out........

The problem, from Trump’s point of view, is that the Iranians are abiding by the deal’s terms. The JCPOA required Iran to dismantle the vast bulk of its nuclear program, essentially closing off every road to a nuclear bomb—in exchange for which the U.S. and the other countries would lift sanctions, which had been imposed as penalty for its nuclear activities.

..........

as the inspectors have reported time and time again, Iran is not cheating.

......... Even Trump has had to certify twice that Iran was in compliance—and he was getting sick and tired of it. ........ To the extent the Iran deal is one-sided, it’s sided against Iran. Unlike the U.S.-Soviet arms deals, we didn’t have to give up any of our weapons; we only had to lift sanctions that we and other countries had imposed to pressure the Iranians to dismantle their weapons program—and now that they have done the dismantling, it’s only fair to lift the sanctions. ....... the U.N. had passed a different set of sanctions against Iran for its tests of ballistic missiles and its support of terrorists. Even after the Iran nuclear deal was signed, those sanctions remain in place. There is no need to rewrite the Iran nuclear deal to address these other problems; they are already being addressed. ....... some—including the International Atomic Energy Agency’s right to inspect facilities—have no expiration at all. .......

he said, they “failed to meet our expectations in its operation of advanced centrifuges.” I have no idea what this means and can’t find anyone to decipher it.

...... the deal allows more intrusive inspection and verification than any arms-control treaty in history. ....... In the year since the deal has been in effect, the IAEA has conducted 402 inspections of Iranian sites, including 25 “snap” inspections. That’s 402 more inspections—and the gathering of a lot more intelligence information—than would have occurred without the nuclear deal. “So far,” the agency’s director general, Yukiya Amano, said in a statement on Friday, “the IAEA has had access to all locations it needed to visit.” ..........

the “violations” that Trump cited are fiction. If anyone is in violation of this deal, it is Trump.

............. Trump has made his preference clear—if a choice must be made, he’ll take diplomatic disaster. ....... If the United States pulls out of the JCPOA, the deal won’t necessarily fall apart. It is a multinational agreement—signed by the five permanent members of the U.N. Security Council (the U.S., Britain, France, China, and Russia), along with Germany and the European Union. Those other countries could decide to keep the deal going and to make up for any business that Iran loses as a result of resumed U.S. sanctions by stepping up their own investment and trade. Then the United States would be isolated—and blinded by lack of access to the intelligence provided by the inspections (which would be continued by the IAEA). ....... If our face-off with North Korea is to end without war, it will require some sort of diplomatic settlement. But who will want to negotiate with the United States, and who would believe any deal Trump would sign or guarantee he would make, if he pulls out of the Iran deal, even though Iran is abiding by its terms? ......

And all of this is happening because Trump doesn’t like the Iran nuclear deal. He doesn’t like it because it was Barack Obama’s triumph, because he doesn’t like Iran, because his friend, Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu doesn’t like Iran and doesn’t like the Iran deal, and because he, Donald Trump said that he would kill the deal, and if he doesn’t, his “base” will be upset.

......... Secretary of State Rex Tillerson has been mumbling a lot of nonsense lately, saying, for instance, that Iran is violating “the spirit” of the deal (which is completely false: This deal has no spirit beyond its contents, and Iran is not violating those) ....... He has withdrawn from the Trans-Pacific Partnership, has withdrawn from UNESCO, is on the verge of withdrawing from NAFTA, and is now getting set to withdraw from the Iran nuclear deal. Our allies are already looking for new partners and new security guarantors. Trump may soon discover that America can’t be first if it’s all alone.



The Only Winner of the U.S.-Iran Showdown Is Russia A crisis tailor-made for Vladimir Putin. ........ Hours before Iran launched a missile attack on U.S. troops in Iraq, Vladimir Putin visited Syria to huddle with his Syrian counterpart Bashar al-Assad over the mounting U.S.-Iran crisis. Russia has repeatedly condemned the U.S. airstrikes that killed Iranian Major Gen. Qassem Soleimani. It’s fair to assume that leaders in Moscow are seeking to turn the situation to their advantage. .......... With no troops in Iraq, the United States will find it hard to sustain a presence in Syria. That void would create more maneuverability for Moscow in the region—essentially, cementing its position as a regional power broker. ....... Moscow has already succeeded in undermining U.S. relations with Middle Eastern allies. The prime example is Turkey: Although Russia and Turkey were on opposite sides of the conflict in Syria, they now jointly control operations in the north of the country ....... Moscow could also benefit if the U.S. strikes create more disunity between Washington and its European allies. Numerous U.S. decisions in the Middle East have frustrated allies, particularly its withdrawal from the nuclear deal. Reports suggest that the Trump administration even failed to warn Britain and other allies ahead of the strikes on Soleimani. If Washington does not heed its allies’ calls for immediate de-escalation, the United States could find itself further isolated on the world stage. ........ Washington could incur additional damage to its relationships with European allies if Iran now hastens its pursuit of a nuclear weapon as a result of the strikes. Iran announced Sunday it would stop obeying all restrictions imposed by the Iran deal on its nuclear activities. Russia has been a vocal critic of the U.S. decision to withdraw from the deal and instead mount a “maximum pressure” campaign against Iran. In fact, Moscow’s position has placed it on the same side as European powers like France and Germany opposing the U.S. decision to reimpose sanctions. Russia has worked with France and Germany to sidestep U.S. sanctions to keep Iran in the deal. Consequently, Russia is ideally situated to emphasize its efforts to maintain the agreement and blame Washington for pushing Iran toward a nuclear bomb........ Russia, on the other hand, is left with the enviable position of capitalizing on the turbulent behavior of the United States in the Middle East, regardless of whether the United States and Iran go to war. Ultimately, U.S. actions will strengthen Russian leadership: first, by removing American competition, and second, by turning regional and global sentiment against the United States. Provided Moscow continues cooperating with all regional states and maintains stability in Syrian territory where Russian forces are present, Russia stands a good chance of supplanting U.S. influence in the Middle East—no matter what happens next.

The Iran Crisis Isn’t Even Close to Over Trump is holding fire for now—but doing nothing to de-escalate tensions. ....... “We are continuing to evaluate options” in response to Iran’s aggression, Trump said, with the entire Joint Chiefs of Staff standing behind him, suggesting that military escalation is still a possibility. Meanwhile, he added, he would impose “new sanctions” on Iran’s economy until the regime “changes its behavior,” scuttling rumors and reports from the night before that Trump would seek an “off-ramp” to the growing tensions between the two nations. ....... Trump continued to denounce the Iran nuclear deal as “foolish” and claimed that Tehran’s “terrorist spree” was funded by the money that President Barack Obama gave the regime as part of the deal. This was a false charge in three ways. First, the money consisted of Iranian assets that had been frozen because of Iran’s illegal nuclear program and that were, therefore, freed when the program was dismantled. Second, during the three years that the nuclear deal was in place, Iran launched no attacks on oil tankers or U.S. military bases; those began only after Trump pulled out of the deal. Third, Iran’s attacks haven’t cost much to execute; they could have been done if sanctions had never been lifted (and they were lifted only partially before they were reimposed). .........

Trump’s remarks indicate that he has no interest in reviving the deal or returning to the negotiating table

........ Trump is holding fire for now, but he made it very clear that he is reserving the right to return more—and that, meanwhile, he is taking no steps toward a peaceful resolution of the broader conflict. All concessions will have to come from Tehran. ....... One of Iran’s strategic goals has been to push the United States out of the Middle East, and particularly out of Iraq. On that level, was Trump handing Iran a win—and one consistent with his isolationist leanings? ......... he touted America’s military strength (though

wildly overstating that he had “rebuilt” the armed forces

during his presidency), noting that even if U.S. troops were pulled out, he could launch massive airstrikes any time he chose. Yet the night before, the Iranians demonstrated that they too could launch missile strikes at U.S. sites. This was the first time Iran—rather than some Iranian-backed proxy force—has launched a strike against a U.S. military base and openly taken credit for it. ......... we are right back where we were two weeks ago, before the round of escalating strikes began. The tensions that sparked the crisis remain unresolved. If anything, they’ve been aggravated.

Fact check: Trump discusses escalation of tensions with Iran in televised speech signaled he was open to dialogue. ..... “Iran's hostilities substantially increased after the foolish Iran nuclear deal was signed in 2013," he said. ..... While Trump tied the escalation of tensions to the deal negotiated under President Barack Obama, a series of major provocations occurred after Trump withdrew the U.S. from the agreement in 2018. ....... Critics of the Iran deal have said Tehran used the money it received as part of the agreement to finance terrorism in the Middle East. At the time, Obama administration officials, including Secretary of State John Kerry, acknowledged the possibility that Iran might use some of the money realized through sanctions relief to fund terrorist groups. But Tehran's funding of militant groups was ongoing years before the deal was reached. ....... Trump also misstated when the Iranian nuclear agreement was signed. Although an interim deal was signed in 2013, the broad multilateral agreement – known as the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action – was signed two years later in 2015. ........ “Iran remains the world’s worst state sponsor of terrorism,” concluded the State Department report, which is a review of 2018 data and activities. “The regime has spent nearly one billion dollars per year to support terrorist groups that serve as its proxies and expand its malign influence across the globe. Tehran has funded international terrorist groups such as Hizballah, Hamas, and Palestinian Islamic Jihad. It also has engaged in its own terrorist plotting around the world, particularly in Europe.” .........

In his 2011 book, Trump called Saudi Arabia “the world’s biggest funder of terrorism. Saudi Arabia funnels our petrodollars, our very own money, to fund the terrorists that seek to destroy our people.”

......... After it signed a multinational deal to restrain its nuclear development in 2015, Iran was allowed access to its own assets, which had been frozen. The U.S. Treasury or other countries did not give Iran $150 billion. Rather, Iran was allowed to gain access to its own money. ....... As for the $1.8 billion, Iran did get a payment of roughly that amount from the U.S. Treasury. But that was to pay an old IOU ....... In the 1970s, Iran paid the U.S. $400 million for military equipment that was never delivered because the government was overthrown and diplomatic relations ruptured. After the nuclear deal, the U.S. and Iran announced they had settled the matter, with the U.S. agreeing to pay the $400 million principal along with about $1.3 billion in interest. .......... Iran had ballistic missile technology before the deal was reached........ To say that that money funded the attack on our personnel and on our base is just

the most disgraceful kind of lie, of the sort that unfortunately President Trump tells every day

........ Trump’s claim of spending more than $2 trillion on military equipment over the last three years is incorrect. The Pentagon bought less than half a trillion in equipment over that period ....... A single U.S. military surveillance drone was downed by Iran's Islamic Revolution Guard Corps (IRGC) in June 2019 ......... the U.S. is not completely free of importing Middle East oil, as Trump claimed, since the U.S. still imports it.

Iranian commander vows "harsher revenge" against U.S. President Trump added a new piece of information to his administration's justification for the deadly strike that killed Soleimani, saying on Thursday, without providing evidence, "We did it because they were looking to blow up our embassy."









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