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Sunday, July 06, 2025

Can Elon Musk’s Party Break America’s Two-Party System? History Says Yes—But It’s a Narrow Window

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The Garden Of Last Debates (novel)
Deported (novel)
Empty Country (novel)
Trump’s Default: The Mist Of Empire (novel)
Peace For Taiwan Is Possible
Formula For Peace In Ukraine
A 2T Cut

Can Elon Musk’s Party Break America’s Two-Party System? History Says Yes—But It’s a Narrow Window

America is a two-party democracy. That fact is both a description and a prediction. The design of U.S. elections—winner-take-all contests in single-member districts—makes it nearly impossible for third parties to survive, let alone thrive. And yet, once in its history, America did witness the birth of a third party that became one of the two dominant forces in national politics. That was the Republican Party of the 1850s. Which raises the question: Could it happen again? Could a Musk-led political party rise to become a dominant force in American politics?

To answer that, we need to examine how the system works, how the Republican Party broke in, and whether a modern equivalent—perhaps fueled by Elon Musk’s vast influence and disruptive energy—could do the same.

Why the Two-Party System Is So Hard to Break

The American political system is set up in a way that naturally resists multiparty competition. This is due to Duverger’s Law, a political science principle that explains why first-past-the-post voting systems lead to two-party dominance. In such a system, voters don't want to “waste” their vote on a candidate who can't win, so they often default to the lesser of two evils among the major parties.

This creates a self-reinforcing loop:

Third parties rarely win.
Because they don’t win, people don’t vote for them.
Because people don’t vote for them, they can’t raise money or build infrastructure.
And so, they don’t win.

Add to that the institutional hurdles—ballot access laws, debate restrictions, media bias—and you can see why the system locks out challengers.

The Exception: The Republican Takeover

The only time in U.S. history when a third party rose to become a major party was in the 1850s. The Whig Party was collapsing under the weight of internal disagreements, especially over the issue of slavery. Into that void stepped the Republican Party, a new coalition of abolitionists, ex-Whigs, Free Soilers, and northern reformers. Within six years of its founding, the Republicans won the presidency with Abraham Lincoln.

Importantly, the GOP didn't add itself as a third wheel. It replaced the Whigs as one of the two dominant parties. That is the precedent Musk—or anyone else hoping to found a new major party—must look to.

Could Musk Replicate the Republican Model?

Yes—but only under very specific conditions. Here’s what would be required:

Collapse or Fracture of an Existing Party: Just like the Whigs crumbled, either the Democratic or Republican party would need to fragment beyond repair. Currently, the GOP shows signs of internal rupture, with factions split across lines of Trumpism, populism, traditional conservatism, and libertarianism.
A Clear, Compelling Vision: Musk's party would need to offer a distinct, coherent, and future-focused vision—something beyond culture wars and tax policy. It might lean into:
- Technological optimism
- Decentralization (crypto, free speech, AI governance)
- Space exploration and climate adaptation
- A post-partisan “problem-solving” ethos
A Moment of National Crisis: Historically, political realignments often happen during or just after deep national trauma—think the Civil War, the Great Depression, or the 1960s cultural upheaval. A Muskian movement would need to ride a similar wave—economic collapse, systemic distrust, or institutional paralysis.
Early Wins and Mass Appeal: A new party needs to win something early—perhaps a governorship, a Senate seat, or even a set of House races. That win must be followed by a credible, well-funded national campaign that convinces voters it's not a spoiler, but a genuine replacement for a broken status quo.

The “Musk Party” Platform: What Would It Even Be?

If Elon Musk were to create a political party, what might it stand for?

Technocracy meets Libertarianism: Minimal government interference, but maximum efficiency through tech-driven governance.
AI and Crypto Policy: Leading the world in safe, open innovation.
Space and Energy: Investment in space infrastructure and clean energy as national priorities.
Speech Absolutism: Radical free speech protections, both offline and online.
Radical Centrism: Frustration with both political extremes could fuel a unifying—but unpredictable—agenda.

Whether these ideas appeal to enough Americans to reshape the national landscape remains to be seen. But the ingredients for disruption are present.

So, Can Elon Musk Change the System?

Not by adding a third party. That path is a dead end. But replacing one of the two main parties? That’s the challenge—and the opportunity.

The Republican Party’s rise in the 1850s didn’t change the two-party system; it simply swapped in a new player. If Elon Musk wants his movement to succeed, that’s what he must aim to do. Find the vacuum. Build the machine. Win a few battles. And become one of the Big Two.

History shows it can be done—but only once every century or so. The question is: is this one of those times?

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"The foul, the buffoon. Elmo the Mook, formerly known as Elon Musk, Elmo the Mook," Bannon said. "He's today, in another smear, and this—only a foreigner could do this—think about it, he's got up on, he's got up on Twitter right now, a poll about starting an America Party, a non-American starting an America Party." ....... He added: "No, brother, you're not an American. You're a South African. We take enough time and prove the facts of that, you should be deported because it's a crime of what you did—among many." ............. Dafydd Townley, an American politics expert at the University of Portsmouth, previously told Newsweek that "third parties do not tend to have a long lifetime in American politics," adding that Musk's new party "would likely split the Republican vote, potentially resulting in a Democrat-dominated House of Representatives, at least in the short term, due to the winner-takes-all electoral system."

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क्या एलन मस्क की पार्टी अमेरिका की दो-दलीय व्यवस्था को तोड़ सकती है? इतिहास कहता है – हां, लेकिन मौका बहुत संकीर्ण है

अमेरिका एक दो-दलीय लोकतंत्र है। यह एक सच्चाई भी है और भविष्यवाणी भी। अमेरिका की चुनावी प्रणाली — “पहले पास होने वाला जीतता है” वाले एकल-सदस्यीय निर्वाचन क्षेत्र — स्वाभाविक रूप से दो प्रमुख पार्टियों को ही बढ़ावा देती है। तीसरी पार्टी के लिए न टिक पाना आम बात है।

लेकिन अमेरिकी इतिहास में एक बार ऐसा हुआ जब एक तीसरी पार्टी ने जन्म लिया और जल्दी ही वह दो मुख्य दलों में से एक बन गई। वह थी 1850 के दशक में बनी रिपब्लिकन पार्टी।

तो सवाल यह है: क्या ऐसा फिर से हो सकता है? क्या एलन मस्क जैसी शख्सियत के नेतृत्व में कोई नई पार्टी अमेरिका की राजनीतिक व्यवस्था में प्रवेश पा सकती है?

इसका जवाब पाने के लिए हमें देखना होगा कि यह व्यवस्था कैसे काम करती है, रिपब्लिकन पार्टी कैसे उभरी, और क्या आज कोई नई ताकत उस रास्ते पर चल सकती है।

क्यों अमेरिका की दो-दलीय व्यवस्था इतनी मजबूत है?

अमेरिका की चुनावी प्रणाली Duverger’s Law के सिद्धांत को दर्शाती है — यानी जब “पहले पास होने वाला जीतता है,” तो जनता अक्सर उस विकल्प को चुनती है जिसे जीतने की सबसे ज़्यादा संभावना हो।

इसका नतीजा:

तीसरी पार्टियाँ आम तौर पर नहीं जीततीं।
लोग उन्हें वोट नहीं देते क्योंकि वे हारेंगी।
चूंकि उन्हें वोट नहीं मिलते, वे फंडिंग नहीं जुटा पातीं।
न फंडिंग, न संसाधन — और फिर वे हार जाती हैं।

इसके अलावा, उन्हें बैलेट तक पहुंच, चुनावी बहसों में शामिल होने और मीडिया कवरेज जैसी मूलभूत चीज़ों में भी कठिनाई होती है।

अपवाद: रिपब्लिकन पार्टी का उदय

अमेरिकी इतिहास में सिर्फ एक बार ऐसा हुआ जब एक तीसरी पार्टी दो मुख्य दलों में से एक बन गई — 1850 के दशक में। उस समय Whig पार्टी गुलामी जैसे मुद्दों पर गहरे मतभेदों के कारण टूट रही थी।

इसी राजनीतिक खालीपन में रिपब्लिकन पार्टी ने प्रवेश किया — जो उन्मूलनवादियों, पूर्व व्हिग नेताओं, और उत्तर के सुधारवादियों से बनी थी। पार्टी बनने के सिर्फ छह साल बाद ही अब्राहम लिंकन राष्ट्रपति चुने गए।

ध्यान दें — रिपब्लिकन पार्टी तीसरी पार्टी नहीं बनी; उसने एक मौजूदा पार्टी को विस्थापित किया। यही एकमात्र ऐतिहासिक रास्ता है, जो मस्क या किसी नई पार्टी को अपनाना होगा।

क्या मस्क वही रास्ता दोहरा सकते हैं?

हां — लेकिन कुछ बेहद खास परिस्थितियों में ही। इसके लिए चाहिए:

किसी मौजूदा पार्टी का पतन या विभाजन: जैसे Whig पार्टी टूटी, वैसे ही डेमोक्रेट या रिपब्लिकन पार्टी को भी टूटना होगा। वर्तमान में GOP (रिपब्लिकन) में ट्रंपवाद, पारंपरिक रूढ़िवाद, और स्वतंत्रतावाद जैसे गुटों में विभाजन देखा जा सकता है।
एक स्पष्ट और प्रेरक दृष्टिकोण: मस्क की पार्टी को एक नया, प्रौद्योगिकी-आधारित और भविष्य-उन्मुख दृष्टिकोण देना होगा — न कि केवल पुरानी राजनीतिक बहसों का नया संस्करण।
राष्ट्रीय संकट का क्षण: इतिहास गवाह है कि असली राजनीतिक बदलाव अकसर गहरे संकट के समय आते हैं — गृह युद्ध, महामंदी, या सामाजिक उथल-पुथल के समय। अगर अमेरिका एक ऐसे ही संकट से गुजरे, तो मस्क की पार्टी एक विकल्प बन सकती है।
प्रारंभिक सफलताएं और जनसमर्थन: नई पार्टी को जल्दी कोई बड़ी जीत चाहिए — एक गवर्नर पद, सीनेट सीट, या कुछ कांग्रेसनल जीतें। इससे पार्टी को गंभीरता से लिया जाएगा और “स्पॉइलर” कहे जाने से बचा जा सकेगा।

“मस्क पार्टी” का एजेंडा क्या होगा?

अगर एलन मस्क कोई पार्टी बनाते हैं, तो उसकी विचारधारा क्या होगी?

प्रौद्योगिकी-आधारित स्वतंत्रता: न्यूनतम सरकारी हस्तक्षेप, अधिकतम दक्षता।
AI और क्रिप्टो नीतियाँ: नवाचार को बढ़ावा देने वाली वैश्विक नीति।
अंतरिक्ष और ऊर्जा: अंतरिक्ष अन्वेषण और हरित ऊर्जा को राष्ट्र की प्राथमिकता बनाना।
पूर्ण स्वतंत्र भाषण: ऑनलाइन और ऑफलाइन दोनों में अभिव्यक्ति की स्वतंत्रता।
कट्टरपंथी मध्यवाद: दोनों पक्षों से ऊबी जनता को एक तीसरा, व्यावहारिक विकल्प देना।

यह विचार क्या पर्याप्त संख्या में अमेरिकी मतदाताओं को आकर्षित कर सकते हैं, यह भविष्य के हालात पर निर्भर करता है।

तो, क्या एलन मस्क व्यवस्था को बदल सकते हैं?

नहीं — यदि वह इसे तीसरी पार्टी की तरह जोड़ना चाहते हैं। वह रास्ता बंद है। लेकिन यदि वे किसी एक मौजूदा पार्टी को विस्थापित करने की योजना बनाएं, तो यह संभव है।

रिपब्लिकन पार्टी का उदय दो-दलीय व्यवस्था को तोड़ने का नहीं, बल्कि उसमें स्थान लेने का उदाहरण है।

यदि मस्क को अपने आंदोलन को सफल बनाना है, तो उन्हें वही करना होगा:
एक वैक्यूम खोजें।
एक नई मशीनरी बनाएं।
कुछ शुरुआती जीतें हासिल करें।
और दो में से एक बन जाएं।

इतिहास कहता है — यह किया जा सकता है।
लेकिन यह अवसर हर सदी में शायद एक बार ही आता है।

अब सवाल यह है: क्या यह वही क्षण है?

Can Elon Musk’s Party Break America’s Two-Party System? History Says Yes—But It’s a Narrow Window https://t.co/GUGqPvFMnb
— Paramendra Kumar Bhagat (@paramendra) July 6, 2025

Trump’s Default: The Mist Of Empire (novel) https://t.co/33eFTUvWdn
— Paramendra Kumar Bhagat (@paramendra) July 6, 2025

11/
History shows it’s possible.
But it happens once a century—if that.
Lincoln did it.
Can Musk?
Let’s see. 🚀🇺🇸

(END)
— Paramendra Kumar Bhagat (@paramendra) July 6, 2025

Trump’s Default: The Mist Of Empire (novel) https://t.co/33eFTUvWdn
— Paramendra Kumar Bhagat (@paramendra) July 6, 2025

11/
इतिहास कहता है — यह संभव है।
लेकिन ऐसा सदी में शायद एक बार ही होता है।
लिंकन ने किया था।
क्या अब मस्क करेंगे?
देखते हैं। 🚀🇺🇸

(समाप्त)
— Paramendra Kumar Bhagat (@paramendra) July 6, 2025

Sunday, January 16, 2022

January 16: Republican Party, Omicron, Penélope Cruz

The Republican Party Is Succeeding Because We Are Not a True Democracy The Jan. 6 attack would not have happened in a genuine democracy. ........ the roots of the crisis run deep into the undemocratic features of our constitutional system. ......... In a simple system of majority rule, Mr.
Biden’s thumping margin of more than seven million votes
would have been the last word. For that matter, so would Hillary Clinton’s national margin of nearly three million votes in 2016: Mr. Trump would not have had a 1600 Pennsylvania Avenue address in which to barricade himself in 2020. ............... today’s Republican Party succeeds only because the Electoral College, the Senate and the Supreme Court all tilt in its favor ........... That system has handed conservatives a 6-3 majority on the Supreme Court, despite the fact that only one Republican has won the presidential popular vote after 1988. ......... A party doesn’t have to persuade majorities that it has the best vision for the country. It only has to persuade a selective minority that the other side is a mortal threat. ............. Its grasp on power may be too tenuous for the party to govern effectively, but it has offered conservatives a fine perch to weaken economic and environmental regulation, appoint conservative judges and launch attacks on the democratic system itself. ......... In a more democratic system, the Republican Party’s extreme elements would have been sent packing long before they stormed the Capitol because they couldn’t muster enough votes to win a national election. Instead, they have perfected minority rule as a path to political success.
An antidemocratic system has bred an antidemocratic party. The remedy is to democratize our so-called democracy.
................. James Madison boasted that the Constitution achieved “the total exclusion of the people, in their collective capacity.” Its elaborate political mechanics reflect the elite dislike and mistrust of majority rule that Madison voiced when he wrote, “Had every Athenian citizen been a Socrates, every Athenian assembly would still have been a mob.” Madison’s condescension has never gone away. Walter Lippmann, perhaps the most prominent intellectual of the short American Century, reckoned that citizens were ignorant, confused and emotional. Democracy brought “an intensification of feeling and a degradation of significance” to whatever it touched. If Madison and Lippmann could have seen the “QAnon Shaman” break into the Capitol, then meander around like a tourist whose phone has lost its signal, they would have muttered, “This is what democracy looks like.” ................ Jan. 6 and the four years before it were a forcible reminder that democracy is a task, not a birthright. ............
Majorities of the people, not the Electoral College, should be able to pick the president and decide who controls the House and Senate. All who make their lives in the United States — including the incarcerated, people convicted of felonies and noncitizens — should be allowed to vote.
................ in a working democracy, there are no permanent majorities or minorities. Forging partnerships in a truly democratic system, inland conservatives would soon find new allies — just not ones determined to break democracy itself. ........... Shortly before World War I, activists successfully pressed state legislatures to ratify an amendment giving up their power to choose U.S. senators. Maybe we can revive mass movements for amendments, starting with one that would make the amendment process itself more democratic. .......... If the public supports a constitutional amendment to limit money in politics, restrict gerrymandering or enshrine a core abortion right, a committed majority should be able to say what our fundamental law is by popular vote, rather than having to go through the current, complicated process of ratifying amendments through state legislatures or dozens of constitutional conventions. ............ Even our terribly flawed legacy is rich in examples of majoritarian emancipation: New Deal programs, the Civil Rights Acts and the Voting Rights Act and Medicare. Majorities can change the world for the better, when they have the chance. Giving one another that chance, over and over, is how equals share a country. .............. Majorities should be able to choose parties and leaders to improve their everyday lives, starting with child care, family leave, health care and the dignified work that still evades many even at a time when employers are complaining of difficulty hiring workers and there is upward pressure on wages after decades of stagnation. ............ If we don’t claim that power, the market, a court or a minority government will always be pleased to take it off our hands. .......... If Jan. 6 was a symptom of a crisis of democracy, the best answer we can give is more democracy.
We might not be capable of that, in which case the future is bleak.
But the only way to find out is by trying. .......... Democracy’s vitality is not handed down from on high. It comes from actually ruling and being ruled in turn and learning to live with both. It comes from the constant search for new majorities, new coalitions, new ways to avoid disaster and even make life better.

My Dinner With Sidney Poitier But Poitier wasn’t just a star, he was a legend, a lion, an almost mythical figure in Black culture and the culture at large. He was Black royalty. ......... before one civil rights march in Mississippi in the 1960s, the singer Sammy Davis Jr., “who avoided the Deep South, swallowed his fear and flew to Jackson. He remembered feeling safe around Belafonte and Poitier,” calling them “two Black knights.” .......... As I approached the table, Poitier greeted me with a blinding smile, the kind that beacons and beguiles, the kind that makes you feel that you have known a complete stranger your whole life. He insisted that I sit next to him. ............ From beginning to end that evening, Poitier whispered slick, salty jokes to me with the devilish satisfaction of a schoolboy. He was 87 at the time. .......... I now knew, at close range, what star power was. His enchantment settled on you, like a soft sweater. Cashmere, of course. .......... He had learned that sometimes, when people say something can’t happen, they simply haven’t tried hard enough. Sometimes, can’ts are soft. ..........
When Poitier arrived in New York, he did odd jobs until, as he wrote in his memoir, he said, “What the hell,” and tried his hand at acting.
...... “I had no training in acting. I could barely read! And to top it off, I had a thick singsong Bahamian accent.” ........ Undeterred, Poitier would will himself into becoming one of the greatest actors America has ever known. .......... For people like Poitier, who have lived a life in which, by sheer grit and determination, they turned noes into yeses, noes lack finality. .........
He was the epitome of Black dignity, Black beauty, Black pride and Black power.

He was the epitome of Black dignity, Black beauty, Black pride and Black power. For a year, activists have been screaming and pleading and begging and getting arrested, trying to get the White House to put the full weight of the presidency behind protecting voting rights, only to be met by silence or soft-pedaling. ........... When Biden fully entered the battle, the other warriors were already bloody, bruised and exhausted. ......... Biden has been dillydallying on getting rid of the filibuster to protect voting rights for essentially his whole administration, until this week. ........ Even a cursory reading of American history reveals a long legacy of extremely effective voter suppression and intimidation. ............
McConnell is an accomplice to the crime of voter suppression
......... States like Texas, with new voter suppression laws and new racially gerrymandered maps, begin early voting in February. ......... During Biden’s victory speech he said, “Especially at those moments when this campaign was at its lowest ebb, the African American community stood up again for me,” and he continued, “You’ve always had my back, and I’ll have yours.” Well, if voting protections fail, many in the Black community will feel like they have been stabbed in the back.

Here’s When We Expect Omicron to Peak The Omicron variant is spreading widely and infecting large numbers of people, including the vaccinated and those previously infected with the virus. While spikes in cases have been the norm for the past two years, there are clear indications this wave will differ substantially from previous ones. ............ it’s less common for people infected with Omicron to experience severe disease and end up in the hospital ......... Our models project that the United States is likely to document more Covid-19 cases in January than in any previous month of the pandemic, but a smaller fraction of those cases will require hospitalization. ........ Our projections depict a rapid surge of cases nationally that peaks at record high numbers during the first one to three weeks of January. ..........
New York City is projected to peak during the first week of January; other locations peak later.
........... whether the steep rise of Omicron cases is followed by a rapid decline, as has been seen in South Africa. This would make the Omicron wave intense but short-lived ......... While Omicron is causing record numbers of infections, the hope is that vaccinations, booster shots and prior infections by other variants will still protect most people from the worst effects of the virus. Early evidence supports this conclusion. ........ The long-term implications of Omicron remain unknown, but in the near term, everyone should expect an intense month of disruption. Still, the familiar advice remains the best: get vaccinated, get booster shots and prepare for a bumpy January.

We Must Stop Showering the Military With Money the nearly three-quarters of a trillion dollars that we are spending this year on a military that has become the epitome of governmental dysfunction, self-dealing and overspending. ............ Right around the time he was bayoneting Build Back Better, Manchin joined 87 other senators — Democrats and Republicans — in rubber-stamping another gargantuan budget for the Pentagon. They allocated $768 billion for the military in 2022, roughly $24 billion more than the White House requested from Congress. ............
The Pentagon has never passed an audit and says it may not be able to until 2028.
.............. In 2020 the U.S. military’s budget accounted for almost 40 percent of the world’s military expenditures. This level of spending has long been excessive, but after a pandemic that has claimed the lives of more Americans than any war we fought, continuing to throw money at the military is an act of willful disregard for the most urgent threats we face. ........... Congress is projected to spend about $8.5 trillion for the military over the next decade — about half a trillion more than is budgeted for all nonmilitary discretionary programs combined (a category that includes federal spending on education, public health, scientific research, infrastructure, national parks and forests, environmental protection, law enforcement, courts, tax collection, foreign aid, homeland security and health care for veterans). .................. When we face so many other major challenges — from climate disasters to political instability and insurrection — shouldn’t we ask whether it remains wise to keep handing the military what is effectively a blank check? ...........
might the Pentagon’s near-bottomless access to funds have encouraged a culture of waste and indulgence that made it easier to blunder into Iraq and contributed to its failures in Afghanistan?
............. why should we keep building aircraft carriers — each of which costs about $1.5 billion a year to operate — when we’ve already got most of the world’s fleet of active aircraft carriers? ............ it could save $125 billion a year by, among other measures, reducing overstaffing through retirements and attrition. ............
The military-industrial complex is every bit as politically powerful as Dwight Eisenhower warned it would be.
............... “Who Won in Afghanistan? Private Contractors.” ......... “It’s going to take members of Congress to really step up,” she said. That seems about as likely as pigs flying — or, more aptly, F-35s.

This Presidency Isn’t Turning Out as Planned The Obama administration was bedeviled by crises of demand. The Biden administration is struggling with crises of supply. ........... The 2009 stimulus was too small, and while we avoided a second Great Depression, we sank into an achingly slow recovery. .......... Wages are high, new businesses are forming at record rates, and poverty has fallen below its prepandemic levels. ............ Since March 2020, Americans saved at least $2 trillion more than expected. ......... we met the pandemic with tremendous, perhaps excessive, fiscal force. We fought the recession and won. The problems we do have shouldn’t obscure the problems we don’t. ............ Year-on-year inflation is running at 7 percent, its highest rate in decades, and Omicron has shown that the Biden administration wasted months of possible preparation. It is not to blame for the new variant, but it is to blame for the paucity of tests, effective masks and ventilation upgrades. ............. many of the delays and shortages reflect unexpectedly strong demand, not a pandemic-induced breakdown in production .............
How about building the vaccine production capacity needed to vaccinate the world and prevent future strains from emerging?
............ Biden’s task now is clear: to build a government that can create supply, not just demand.

The Economic Case for Goldilocks
Ukraine Is Only One Small Part of Putin’s Plans A call between Mr. Putin and President Biden on Dec. 30, where the leaders traded threats, did little to take the sting out of the situation. Any incident along the Russian-Ukrainian border could bring an inferno......... Mr. Putin’s design is grand: to refashion the post-Cold War settlement, in the process guaranteeing the survival of Russia’s personalized power system. And judging from the West’s awkward, anguished response so far, he might be close to getting what he wants. ......... No longer content with upsetting the West, Mr. Putin is now trying to force it to agree to a new global dispensation, with Russia restored to eminence. ............ the West, by accepting Russia’s geopolitical position, would effectively underwrite its domestic agenda, too .........
confrontation is not the Kremlin’s goal. The escalation is about peace on Russia’s terms.
............. One success is already clear: The West has been forced to reward Russia — through outreach, diplomacy and, above all, attention — for the charitable act of not invading Ukraine. .......... Mr. Putin’s method is tried and tested: He ratchets up the tensions and then demands “binding agreements,” which he does not take seriously. The aim, really, is a Hobbesian world order, built on disruption and readiness for surprise breakthroughs. ........... This order has nothing in common with those fashioned at the Yalta Conference in 1945, say, or the Congress of Vienna in 1815. Their architects followed the rules. The Kremlin is suggesting something very different: the irrelevance of rules. The norms by which the world has been governed for the past three decades would be thrown out, in favor of creative interpretation of the possible. In this free-for-all, Mr. Putin — mercurial master of suspense and the sudden move — can pursue his fusion of geopolitical power and personal rule............. By forcing the world to guess what Russia is up to and pursuing mutually contradictory policy lines simultaneously, the Kremlin keeps the West disoriented. Accustomed to functioning in rational, risk-averse ways, the West doesn’t know how to react to such “organized chaos.” ......... Any bargain that would allow the Kremlin to interpret the global rules of the game would undermine Western principles. Yet rejecting the bargain could incite the Kremlin to wreck the whole shop. The world’s liberal democracies are hardly ready for a clash with a nuclear opponent.

A Library the Internet Can’t Get Enough Of Why does this image keep resurfacing on social media? ......... “For me, I think that photo is as stunning as a sunset. I could spend days and days locked in that library examining each book.” He noted that there’s something comforting about the image, since “it’s a room you could happily get lost in.” ............ Dr. Macksey’s book collection clocked in at 51,000 titles, according to his son, Alan, excluding magazines and other ephemera. ........... Several first editions by 20th-century poets and novelists sat on a shelf in the laundry room. .......... the “satisfying” sense of organized chaos, and the awe inspired by the high ceilings.

The Visions of Penélope Cruz She already felt a mystical connection with the director Pedro Almodóvar. For their seventh collaboration, “Parallel Mothers,” she gave her all, even collapsing after one scene. ........... Their latest, “Parallel Mothers,” is also one of their greatest, starring Cruz as a mother wrestling with a terrible secret. ........... it may also earn the 47-year-old Cruz, an Oscar winner for “Vicky Cristina Barcelona,” her fourth Academy Award nomination. ......... “Penélope has a blind faith in me,” Almodóvar wrote in a lengthy email. “She is convinced that I am a better director and writer than I really am. This blind faith fills me with the confidence to request anything of her, while the trust that she deposits in me allows her to do things during filming that she might not dare try with other directors because she knows I am watching her as if through a thousand eyes.” ........... Cruz asked for an unusually long rehearsal process of a few months, trying to reach the core of a character who’s in constant conflict with her own feelings. ............. playing this woman brought Cruz further from herself than she ever could have anticipated ......... it wasn’t until she reteamed with Almodóvar for “Volver” in 2006 that she earned her first Oscar nomination and truly showed Hollywood what kind of full-bodied lead performance she was capable of. ......... And every few years, she reunites with Almodóvar, who is always eager to push her to the next level. ........ but I cannot look back and judge them only by their result, or the awards or reviews. Every step counts.” ........ “Nature gives you a few months to prepare, but from the second you see your son or your daughter, it changes everything,” Cruz said. “It even changes your ego. It immediately puts it in a more healthy place.”

Saturday, January 15, 2022

Sinema Is The Democrats' Sudetenland Moment

Sinema and Manchin are making Trump's second term possible. That is the only thing they are doing. Politicians picking voters instead of the other way round is not new to America. But what has been happening this past year in terms of denying voting rights is at a whole another level. You take a stand now, or you say bye bye to democracy in America. A country that can not muster whatever it takes to protect voting rights is no longer a democracy.

Tuesday, November 22, 2016

The Two Party System Continues

America is a two party democracy, and it continues. The Republican Party is not dead, although a major act of creative destruction might have happened. The Democratic Party is now a municipal party, but such total defeat is also the best place to be from where to mount a strong comebck.

NATO is too expensive. That is the electoral verdict. The unfinished business of ending the Cold War once and for all perhaps now will be finished. Architecting a normal relationship with Russia might be at hand.

Trump's ascent might be a challenge to the solar entrepreneurs who now have to make sure dirty energy gets priced out completely.

Thursday, October 27, 2016

GOP Is Going To Be Three Parties After November

Don't kid yourself. This guy Trump is not going anywhere. He is going to launch a TV network and milk 20 million people all he can. Call that one party. It is going to be like one of those right wing parties in Europe.

Then there is the Utah guy McMullin. He is very clear he is not running to win. He is running to launch a center right political party.

The Libertarian party is a Republican party. I think it also wants to abolish the Education Department.

The GOP civil war begins after November. They need to lose to Hillary first. Then they can get on with the real competition.

Republicans made a fateful choice back then to tie their prospects to a medium addicted to rage and the conspiracy theories that fuel it. That came back to haunt them with the candidacy of Donald Trump. Now they find themselves between a rock and a hard place. Either they continue on the current path of promoting the rage-making machine, or they take Rampell’s advice and decide to go to war with right-wing media – which might actually become their final Waterloo.

Wednesday, July 20, 2016

The Republican Party Deserves To Die

Trump adviser says Clinton should be 'shot for treason'

Like the Whigs once.

The GOP’s alternate reality - The Boston Globe

It will be whacked from two ends in November. The Libertarian Party will eat it from the other end.

Sunday, June 05, 2016

A Campaign To Thoroughly Discredit Reagan

There is a campaign underway to thoroughly discredit Ronald Reagan, the Republican gold standard, and, surprisingly, it is not coming from the Democratic side. There are conservatives out to prove Ronald Reagan was exactly like The Donald before he got elected president. Reagan also supposedly hosted a talk show. Trump talks of Mexican rapists, Reagan supposedly holds the copyright on the phrase "welfare queen," an intentional gross exaggeration of the facts. There seem to be quite a few such parallels.

Facts-free racism, as directed against Barack Obama by a recalcitrant Congress, and facts-free sexism, completely unhinged from facts and logic, as directed against Hillary (for the umpteenth time, it is the Department Of Defense, not State, that has been tasked with protecting embassies) is a slippery slope. When you lack political mojo, but you practice it, then, it is a slippery slope. You keep falling. If it were evidence based decision making, data based, subject to logic, deliberation, and such, then you have something to hold on to, and you don't fall. But facts-free is slippery. You fall.

There is a very real possibility Donald Trump is the last of the Mohicans, I mean Republicans.

Lincoln moved above party, even country, a long time ago. He is not thought of as American, let alone Republican. Reagan was all you had. Trump is busy knocking out the facade. Emperor Reagan, it seems, was naked. Supply side economics is voodoo. That was Reagan fishing in the murky waters of the Cold War. It was voodoo from the outset.

I am for small government. There's stuff a government must do, and only the government can and should do, and I want all that to be done with as little money and people as possible. Efficiency is good for business, it is also good for government. But learn from the Chinese to respect bureaucrats.

I am for a total spread of democracy, but you get there by allowing everyone who lives in New York City to vote in the city elections. NYC is under colonial rule right now. Almost half of New Yorkers can't even vote in the city elections.

I am strong on defense, but the best way to get there is through a total spread of democracy and, yes, a world government, one person one vote one voice 24/7 local to global. Every country should pay 1% of its GDP as a membership fee. The world government is what will bring about a total spread of democracy, it's not the other way round. People are born equal, all people, everywhere.

Friday, January 29, 2016

Donald Trump In The Republican Party: Bull In A China Shop

The Donald might claim he has been a lifelong Republican, but he is not exactly a one year old. He does not look the part. You can't just talk it, you also gotta look it.

Donald Trump moving through the Republican primary is a bull moving through a china shop. Republicans like to engage in China bashing. The Donald is more into china bashing. Capital letter C, small letter c. And what a difference it seems to make.

The guy has been doing a thorough job of it. By the time The Donald is done, Fox is no longer going to be the number one news channel in America. You don't pick fights with The Donald. Nobody picks fights with The Donald. Ask Rosie.

Republican Party: Abe To Dope

When all is said and done, The Donald will do just fine. He will still be standing. Heck, he will be flying. He is going to be the most sought after reality TV star in America. But I am not sure the Republican Party is going to survive the travail. Oh, well.

Wednesday, January 27, 2016

Donald Trump: "I Could Shoot Somebody!"

Dick Cheney did not announce it before he did. Are they even members of the same party?

I think of Donald Trump as a political lightweight.

Friday, July 31, 2015

Donald Trump Is Into Real Estate

You can't get too rich doing real estate. To get really rich, you have to go into high tech. Too late, Trump.

Wednesday, July 22, 2015

Donald Trump And The South

I can just imagine people across the South going. "You know what, people in New York are not that different from us after all!" What do they know!

I won an election in the South before Bobby Jindal won an election in the South, even though mine was much smaller, but still, it counts. I know a thing or two about the South.

When Trump badmouthed McCain, people were like, this is it, the Trump balloon will burst now. I did not agree. How do you think W beat McCain in South Carolina in 2000?

Donald Trump is a serious dude with a sense of humor. A lot of people mistake his sense of humor and don't take him seriously, me among them. The Trump balloon will burst, but now is not the time. Not enough damage has been done. For one, I don't expect the guy to have done his policy homework. It takes a lifetime of preparation to run for president. The Donald started just a few weeks ago. What does he think America is? A bankrupt company?

Much of The Donald's high flying in the polls is his talking stupid. Not even Bobby Jindal is being able to compete! (Did I hear Bobby say the Confederate Flag is his pride? Bobby, where are we here?)

The Donald Is Plenty Smart
The Trump's Trump Card
Friends Of Hillary: On Both Sides?

Wait until they find out The Donald's hair is fake. One thing they can stand in the South is that your hair is fake and you are running for president.

Thursday, July 02, 2015

The Republican Hunger Games

In the Republican Hunger Games, is #TheDonald (aka Donald Trump) the guy with the taser gun? If he is, he is winning. T for taser, T for tongue. This guy is a True Republican. He does not need to raise money, and he will NOT raise money. He was born on Ellis Island. It does not get any more American than that. If I were Jeb Bush, I would not get too comfortable with my lead. I would take a second look at my talking points. The Donald has a tendency to surprise in the debates. You never know what might come out of his mouth next. It is not like he is running for President of Mexico. Who cares, right?

As Donald Trump surges in polls, Democrats cheer

Thursday, June 25, 2015

Bobby Jindal Does Not Offend Me

English: Baton Rouge, LA, September 3, 2008 -- President George W. Bush and Governor Bobby Jindal greeting EOC employees, during disaster recovery efforts for Hurricane Gustav. Jacinta Quesada/FEMA (Photo credit: Wikipedia)

President George W. Bush (right) is greeted by Louisiana Governor Bobby Jindal (left) and his wife, Supriya Jolly Jindal (center), on his arrival to Louis Armstrong New Orleans International Airport Monday, April 21, 2008, where President Bush will attend the 2008 North American Leaders’ Summit. White House photo by Joyce N. Boghosian (Photo credit: Wikipedia)

Louisiana Governor Bobby Jindal, at campaign event for presidential candidate John McCain in Kenner, Louisiana. (Photo credit: Wikipedia)

Bobby and Gay Marriage
Bobby Jindal's Speech
Bobby Saying All The Right Things
Biden, Bobby
Bobby, The Biology Major
Bobby Jindal: Our Economy Is Strong
Bobby's Running Mates

Except on gay marriage. His stance on gay marriage to me is like he wants to snatch away voting rights from blacks. And for that one stand, I have to dismiss everything else he might stand for. And it is a political disagreement.

But I never thought any less of his Indian heritage just because he converted. There are plenty of Christians who are Indian citizens in India. You don't have to be Hindu to be Indian, in India. Why should the rules be any different in America, of all places?

It is a basic democratic ethos that other people might have different opinions. I am a progressive. Bobby is a conservative. And we both are just fine. But I must admit, Bobby has made me take a second look at some pretty hard core conservative positions. As in, really? You feel that way? That is your worldview? Really? I guess the conditioning being, in America, if you are brown like Bobby, you are very likely to be on the other side.

I have also been fascinated that Bobby is smart, and successful. I mean, Louisiana, of all places. The most famous politician out of that state used to be David Duke, I think, a flaming racist. How can Louisiana throw up someone of Bobby's looks? That is progressive progress.

When he says he is proud of his Indian heritage, but he wants Americans to be just Americans, how is that any different from progressives saying everyone in America should be treated as equals regardless of race? Race being the topic it is, sticky, it is not the kind of reactions that will surface, it is more that he even bothered talking about it.

My political perspective is, after getting hit by the truck called Donald Trump, a lot of Republicans might welcome that Bobby has now announced. Trump is the opposite of gravitas. Bobby is all wonky and stuff. That is a counterbalance.

But like I said, on Bobby I am a one issue dude. You are opposed to gay marriage? You are out. That is a civil rights issue. Too bad, because on many other issues, even when I might disagree, I think Bobby has some well thought out, well reasoned arguments that would make for good political ping pong.

Some Indians attacking Bobby sound like blacks who attacks blacks who read, as if reading is too white. What's white?

As for 2016, we have had a brown/black guy, now it is a woman's turn to step in. Hillary will out wonk Bobby, hands down. When I say Bobby is smart, it is a relative term. He is smart in a party of stupid.

An Indian origin person becoming a serious candidate for President Of The United States, that is a lot of pride for Indians in India. They will not care what Bobby says. He might get a lot of social media love from afar.

Bobby Jindal presidential bid sparks Twitter mockery

As for his chances, I don't know, it is tough. Hillary is going to beat whoever. But will Bobby make it to the ring? Right now the bet is on Jeb Bush, right? But I like how Bobby said, it is White House or bust. I like that attitude. Maybe he wants to run, and then go into the private sector. Or go into the US Senate later? Or maybe correct himself on gay marriage and run again later? I mean, he is young. He will still be young in 2024. One term in the US Senate might be a good preparation. I don't think anyone has been both Governor and Senator before running for president.

How is his record in Louisiana? I mean the economic record. How is the state faring?

Pages

Sunday, July 06, 2025

Why the Two-Party System Is So Hard to Break

The Exception: The Republican Takeover

Could Musk Replicate the Republican Model?

The “Musk Party” Platform: What Would It Even Be?

So, Can Elon Musk Change the System?

क्यों अमेरिका की दो-दलीय व्यवस्था इतनी मजबूत है?

अपवाद: रिपब्लिकन पार्टी का उदय

क्या मस्क वही रास्ता दोहरा सकते हैं?

“मस्क पार्टी” का एजेंडा क्या होगा?

तो, क्या एलन मस्क व्यवस्था को बदल सकते हैं?

Sunday, January 16, 2022

Biden’s thumping margin of more than seven million votes

An antidemocratic system has bred an antidemocratic party. The remedy is to democratize our so-called democracy.

Majorities of the people, not the Electoral College, should be able to pick the president and decide who controls the House and Senate. All who make their lives in the United States — including the incarcerated, people convicted of felonies and noncitizens — should be allowed to vote.

We might not be capable of that, in which case the future is bleak.

When Poitier arrived in New York, he did odd jobs until, as he wrote in his memoir, he said, “What the hell,” and tried his hand at acting.

He was the epitome of Black dignity, Black beauty, Black pride and Black power.

McConnell is an accomplice to the crime of voter suppression

New York City is projected to peak during the first week of January; other locations peak later.

The Pentagon has never passed an audit and says it may not be able to until 2028.

might the Pentagon’s near-bottomless access to funds have encouraged a culture of waste and indulgence that made it easier to blunder into Iraq and contributed to its failures in Afghanistan?

The military-industrial complex is every bit as politically powerful as Dwight Eisenhower warned it would be.

How about building the vaccine production capacity needed to vaccinate the world and prevent future strains from emerging?

confrontation is not the Kremlin’s goal. The escalation is about peace on Russia’s terms.