6: Ukraine

ChatGPT AI lists jobs it can do better than humans as millions could be put out of work ChatGPT was unveiled in November and went on to break records as the fastest-growing user base ...... OpenAI’s wildly popular chatbot, ChatGPT, is expected to replace 4.8 million U.S. jobs ....... The bot told the outplacement firm that it would most likely replace positions that are repetitive and predictable, and ones that are also seeped in language requirements. Those fields, according to the bot, include: customer service representatives; translators and interpreters; technical writers; copywriters; and data entry clerks. ......... The AI chatbot added that it could see itself entering other fields such as data science; machine learning; mathematics and statistics; computer science; robotics and automation; and business. ....... the AI system can sometimes "hallucinate" and "make up information that's incorrect, but sounds plausible." The spokesperson added that OpenAI's mission is to "enhance jobs" with AI, not eliminate them. .......... The CEO of OpenAI, Sam Altman, has even compared the technology to the Manhattan Project, when the first ​nuclear weapons were developed during World War II. ....... The letter says the labs should use such a pause to hash out "and implement a set of shared safety protocols for advanced AI design and development that are rigorously audited and overseen by independent outside experts." .

Macron and Xi’s Guangzhou rendezvous a sign of China’s enthusiasm for French leader, analysts say In a rare meeting outside Beijing, French president to reunite with Chinese counterpart in southern metropolis on Friday after talks in capital city ... Macron will also meet investors and answer questions from university students while in the export powerhouse of Guangdong ........ and his attempt to carve his own “third way” of handling China without being confrontational...... Speaking upon his arrival in Beijing on Wednesday, the French president indicated France would seek engagement with China, especially in commercial areas. .

In Beijing trip, European leaders’ unity on China will be put to the test French President Emmanuel Macron and European Commission chief Ursula von der Leyen will arrive in Beijing on Wednesday ....They will meet with Chinese President Xi Jinping, but Macron, hoping to firm economic ties, is less hawkish than von der Leyen ....... In the run-up to the visit, however, the commission president took her place among the continent’s toughest talkers on China. Her speech in Brussels last week was seen as an attempt to bolster the European Union’s approach both politically and economically. ........ The Frenchman bristles at the idea of taking a hardline approach akin to the United States’ policy. The strongest proponent of a sovereign European Union, Macron sees a three-day state visit as a chance to reestablish France and Europe as a “third way” somewhere between the US and China. ........ Macron will press Chinese leaders to help end Russia’s 13-month invasion of Ukraine – but not too hard. ........ “China is one of the few countries in the world – if not the only one – to have a game-changing effect on the conflict, in either direction,” the official added........ “China has now turned the page on the era of ‘reform and opening’ and is moving into a new era of security and control,” she said. Von der Leyen will hold private meetings with Xi as well as with Premier Li Qiang in Beijing. ...... She also played down hopes that China would help broker peace in Ukraine, saying that Beijing was trying to redraw the global order with itself at the centre. ........ some have also speculated that it puts von der Leyen on a collision course with both France and Germany, which are less interested in shaking ties with the world’s second-largest economy. ........ described the commission’s new outlook as “more China-last than Europe-first”. .......... Macron and German Chancellor Olaf Scholz agree that “economic decoupling with China is a dangerous and self-harming proposition for the EU, [that] Europeans should not emulate the United States’ hawkish approach”. .

Ukraine ‘ready’ to talk to Russia on Crimea if counteroffensive succeeds Senior official says Kyiv does not exclude liberation of occupied peninsula by military means ......... “If we will succeed in achieving our strategic goals on the battlefield and when we will be on the administrative border with Crimea, we are ready to open [a] diplomatic page to discuss this issue,” Sybiha said, referring to Kyiv’s long-planned counteroffensive....... He added: “It doesn’t mean that we exclude the way of liberation [of Crimea] by our army.” ........ Sybiha’s remarks may relieve western officials who are sceptical about Ukraine’s ability to reclaim the peninsula and worry that any attempt to do so militarily could lead President Vladimir Putin to escalate his war, possibly with nuclear weapons......... Crimea would need “a political solution because of just the concentration of force that is there and what it would mean for the Ukrainians to go in there”. ........ In the early days of the war, Ukraine was willing to negotiate with Moscow over the future of Crimea rather than insisting on regaining it militarily at all costs. .......... in May last year he indicated Ukraine could consider a peace deal if Russian forces returned to positions in eastern Ukraine predating last year’s invasion and suggested the issue of Crimea would be resolved later through diplomacy......... Ukrainian forces would be on Crimea’s doorstep in “five to seven months”. ........ the Ukrainian leadership felt “that after a successful counteroffensive [in the rest of the country] Putin might be eager to talk”......... 87 per cent of Ukrainians considered any territorial concessions to achieve peace unacceptable. Only 9 per cent said they would accept concessions if it meant lasting peace. ........ 64 per cent of Ukrainians want Ukraine to try to retake all of its territory, including Crimea, “even if there is a risk of a decrease in western support and a risk of a protracted war”. .

Poorer world and no real winners in China-US decoupling, IMF warns Effects of strategy will fall hardest on China-aligned Southeast Asian economies, but Washington and its allies also face costs, report finds ...... Continued fragmentation of foreign direct investment between geopolitical blocs could see global output fall by 2 per cent ...... China and closely associated Southeast Asian economies are likely to suffer the most as a more divided global investment landscape driven by geopolitical tensions takes shape ........ while the US and its allies may appear to be “relative winners”, they are also likely to face considerable economic costs as they pursue stronger national security or technological leadership ......... .

1: Ukraine

27: Ukraine

Fatalism is not an option for addressing China-Russia relations his 40th face-to-face meeting with Russian President Vladimir Putin. ......... Over the past year, China has expanded trade links with Russia and amplified Russian propaganda. ........ He is a cold-blooded calculator of his and his country’s interests above all else. ....... lock Russia in for the long term as China’s junior partner. ....... Xi flatters Putin in ways he does not any other world leader. ........ The two countries fought a border conflict in 1969, when Xi turned 16. During Xi’s formative years, the Soviet Union maintained a massive military presence along the Sino-Soviet border, deploying up to 36 divisions.......... For Xi, cementing Russia as China’s junior partner is fundamental to his vision of national rejuvenation. ............ Xi likely also sees the benefit of Russia distracting America’s strategic focus away from China. .......... Given China’s dependence on imports for food and fuel, Xi likely also values the secure and discounted supplies of these critical inputs that Russia provides........... China will remain committed to navigating Russia’s invasion of Ukraine in a manner that keeps Russia as its junior partner. Seen through this lens, China’s amplification of Russian propaganda, its continuous diplomatic engagement, its ongoing military exercises, and its expanding trade with Russia all are supportive of its broader objective........... Russia’s strategic value to China requires that Moscow not objectively lose in Ukraine, though. Thus, China’s second objective is to guard against Russia failing and Putin falling.......... As Russia’s trade with the developed world has plummeted, China has stepped in to fill the gap. China-Russia trade exceeded a record-breaking $180 billion last year (roughly one-quarter of the volume of U.S.-China trade)......... China’s third objective is to try to de-link Ukraine from Taiwan. Chinese leaders grate at the suggestion that Ukraine today foreshadows Taiwan tomorrow. They want the world to accept that Ukraine is a sovereign state and Taiwan is not, and that the two should not be compared. ........... Faced with these Chinese objectives, many American, European, and Asian policymakers might reasonably conclude that there is no prospect for dissolving the Sino-Russian entente, so they should seek instead to frame China and Russia as two sides of the same coin. According to this logic, doing so could cause China to pay as high of a reputational price as possible for being an accomplice to Russia’s barbarism in Ukraine. ........ No Ukrainians’ lives will be improved by worsening public perceptions of China. ......... there are still meaningful things Russia is withholding from China that it conceivably could give if the relationship truly moves toward a “no-limits” partnership. These include Russian support for a greater Chinese role in the Arctic, Russian permission for Chinese forces to access its constellation of bases around the world, Russian support for China’s submarine and anti-submarine warfare programs, and deeper and more directed global intelligence cooperation. ......... at the urging of German Chancellor Olaf Scholz and others, Xi exhorted against the threat or use of nuclear weapons. China has thus far refrained from proving lethal assistance to Russia. Beijing has not recognized the breakaway republics in Ukraine. ........... Beijing is not a credible fulcrum for any peace process, though it is conceivable that China could play a role as part of a signing/guaranteeing group for any eventual peace deal. ........... The Ukrainians are sober to the scale of the reconstruction bill that awaits them at the end of the fighting. They will both want and need Chinese contributions. .......... will China exercise its leverage to encourage off-ramps and oppose further escalation? Will China condemn attacks on civilians? Will China support future investigations to hold perpetrators of atrocities in Ukraine to account? Will China continue to oppose all threats or uses of nuclear weapons? Will China continue to refrain from recognizing breakaway republics? Will China contribute resources now to lessen the suffering of Ukrainian refugees? Will China commit to materially support Ukraine’s reconstruction? ......... Ultimately, Beijing will not disavow Moscow.

25: Russia

The view from Moscow and Beijing: What peace in Ukraine and a post-conflict world look like to Xi and Putin The main topics of discussion were fittingly grandiose: How should hostilities in Ukraine end? And after the war is over, how should the international security system be reshaped? ........ U.S. Secretary of State Antony Blinken warned the world not to be “fooled by any tactical move by Russia, supported by China … to freeze the war on its own terms.” ........ Putin launched a brutal, unprovoked war in Ukraine. .......... Amid the heightened emotional environment of missile attacks on civilians, horrific atrocities against ordinary citizens and deportation of children from Ukraine, even a cool evaluation of ways to end the fighting, declare a cease-fire, and begin talks by the belligerents has led to accusations of appeasement. And the peace plan put forward by China on Feb. 24, 2023, and discussed with Putin during a March 20-22 meeting in Moscow has been criticized as overly vague and lacking concrete suggestions. .......... But as a historian, I ask, what does the world look like from the other side? How has the run-up to the war and the war itself been understood by Russia and China? And what do Xi and Putin envision a post-conflict world to look like? .......... The rulers of both Russia and China see the West-dominated “rules-based international order” – a system that has dominated geopolitics since the end of the Second World War – as designed to uphold the global hegemony of the United States. .......... The two men’s stated preference is for a multilateral system, one which would most probably result in a number of regional hegemons. ......... “The international community has recognized that no country is superior to others, no model of governance is universal, and no single country should dictate the international order. The common interest of all humankind is in a world that is united and peaceful, rather than divided and volatile.” ......... Reflecting his more street tough style, Putin was more blunt. Russia and China “have consistently advocated the shaping of a more just multipolar world order based on international law rather than certain ‘rules’ serving the needs of the ‘golden billion,’” he said, referencing a theory that holds that the billion people in the richest countries of the world consume the greatest portion of the world’s resources. ......... Putin said the “crisis in Ukraine” was an example of the West trying to “retain its international dominance and preserve the unipolar world order” while splitting “the common Eurasian space into a network of ‘exclusive clubs’ and military blocs that would serve to contain our countries’ development and harm their interests.” .........

Beijing appears intent to play the role of negotiator-in-chief in this transition to a multipolar world order.

......... the expansion of NATO into Eastern Europe and the alliance’s promise to expand further by admitting Georgia and Ukraine. In Putin’s view, such NATO encroachment is an existential threat to Russia’s security interests. ........ But the Chinese plan also rejects Putin’s nuclear saber-rattling: “The threat or use of nuclear weapons should be opposed.” .......... the Chinese strongly insist on the need for an immediate cease-fire and the start of negotiations ........... In the short run, China may be benefiting from the war because it consumes attention and armaments from the West and diverts its gaze from East Asia. The U.S. “pivot to the east” – a planned refocusing from the Obama administration onward aimed at countering the perceived threat of China – has stalled. ........... Xi is most concerned with China’s renewal of economic development, which would rely on less confrontational relations with Europe and the United States. Stability, both domestically and internationally, works to China’s economic advantage as a major producer and exporter of industrial goods. And Beijing is mindful that a slump in foreign demand and investment is hitting the country’s economic prospects. ...........

Xi may be the only person on the globe able to persuade Putin to think seriously about a way out of war.

......... The United States’ long-held foreign policy aim of maintaining its “indispensable nation” status runs counter to Russia and China’s ambition to end American global dominance. ........ two, seemingly insurmountable, rival ambitions. .

India’s ruling party just kicked a major rival out of Parliament — and sparked a new crisis Rahul Gandhi’s expulsion from the Lok Sabha is the latest sign of Indian democracy’s decline. ........ For years, Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi has attacked the foundations of his country’s democracy. His government has rewritten election rules in its favor, assailed the rights of the Muslim minority, jailed anti-government protesters, and reined in the free press. On Friday morning, it took another major step in an authoritarian direction: kicking Modi’s principal rival, Congress party leader Rahul Gandhi, out of office and disqualifying him from competing in future elections. ........ Modi is extremely popular, and Gandhi is not known as an especially adept politician. ........ “Authorities have used security, defamation, sedition, and hate speech laws, as well as contempt-of-court charges, to quiet critical voices in the media,” Freedom House finds. “Activists, Muslims, and members of other marginalized communities are routinely charged with sedition for criticizing the government and its policies.” ........ the motion was filed by a Modi ally only a week after Gandhi launched a major attack against the prime minister’s ties to disgraced businessman Gautam Adani. ....... the case has serious legal flaws. In criminal allegations that a group is being defamed — like people named Modi — it needs to be shown that the group constitutes a distinct entity with collective interests and a group reputation that could be besmirched. ......... it is entirely possible that Gandhi’s conviction is overturned on appeal. ......... Gandhi’s conviction and removal from Parliament illustrate, more than anything else, the continuing deterioration of India’s democracy and Modi’s and his allies’ authoritarian bent. ........ India no longer met its minimal standards for qualifying as a democracy of any kind, downgrading it to an “electoral autocracy.” ....... attacking the leading figure in the opposition is unusually brazen ........ Like similar modern autocrats in places like Hungary and Israel, he still depends on support from a public that believes in the basic ideals of representative government. ........ “Rahul Gandhi can still command media and popular attention when he is not a member of Parliament” ......... the BJP’s increasingly tight control over the Indian political system and mass media. ....... “Even after his yatra, pundits said Bharat Jodo Yatra would be step 1 of a larger rehabilitation plan only if it was followed by additional steps to sharpen the opposition’s ideological positioning and build the Congress organization. We have not seen much headway on either of those fronts.” ...... Modi is a capable and canny authoritarian, and putting a real dent in his political armor will be a difficult challenge for India’s weakened opposition. .

The Ukraine conflict is a war of narratives – and Putin’s is crumbling It is as if both Russia and Ukraine are attempting to write the history – the whys and hows of the conflict – in real time. ........ Russian politicians and their media claim Russia is fighting Nazis in Ukraine who usurped power in a 2014 coup d’état and pushed the country toward an alliance with the West, posing a direct threat to Russia itself. ............. Russian boys are dying to protect their Ukrainian brethren, Russians and Russian-speaking Ukrainians from fascism ....... Ukrainians decided in the “revolution of dignity” in 2014 that they wanted to free themselves from Vladimir Putin’s suffocating pressure to give up their aspirations to join the West, fortify their democracy and be a fully sovereign, independent state. Inspired by that narrative – and the unprovoked invasion of their country by their powerful neighbor – Ukrainians have courageously and effectively resisted the Russian assault, and even triumphed significantly on the battlefield. ......... Ukraine was never a serious, immediate threat to Russia. ....... a preventive war. It is premised on anxieties about future dangers, yet clothed not in cold realist terms but rather in the hyperemotional narrative of the supposedly harmonious brotherhood of Russians, Ukrainians and Belarusians. .......... Putin’s narrative is similarly existential. It is framed as a struggle against the “neo-colonialism” of the West, which he believes seeks to dismember Russia. In Putin’s narrative, the war with Ukraine challenges America’s claim to a global hegemony that reduces Russia to a humiliated regional power. ........ The lands he referred to as “New Russia,” or “Novrossiya,” were sanctified, he said, by victories of Russian heroes from the 18th century; this was a land where Catherine the Great founded cities.......... He then pivoted to the painful year 1991, when three representatives of the Communist party elite terminated the Soviet Union “without asking ordinary citizens what they wanted, and people suddenly found themselves cut off from their homeland.” Putin compared this illegitimate act with what Lenin and the Bolsheviks had done in creating Soviet republics on the basis of their nationality. In Putin’s narrative, the invasion of Ukraine is part of a process to rectify what he now sees as criminal acts at the dawn and twilight of the Soviet empire. He explicitly rejected the notion of restoring the USSR – “Russia no longer needs it today; this is not our ambition” – but believes he should aid those torn from their historic homeland. ............ In Putin’s narrative, Ukraine needs saving from the clutches of the West and Western culture and must return to the Russkii mir – the Russian world – and its unique culture. ........ Putin declared that in Russia there will not be “parent number one, parent number two and parent number three” instead of a “mother and father.” ......... “Do we want our schools to impose on our children … perversions that lead to degradation and extinction? Do we want to drum into their heads the ideas that certain other genders exist along with women and men and to offer them gender reassignment surgery? … This is all unacceptable to us. We have a different future of our own.” ............ broadening the imagined threat from the West to include culture as well as Russia’s survival and status as a great power .......... Domestic resistance to the war has erupted sporadically in large Russian cities, in non-Russian regions like Dagestan and even in Russian-occupied Crimea. Young men are fleeing to Finland, Georgia, Armenia and Central Asia to avoid the call-up issued by the military. Few want to fight and die for a war that makes no sense.

Poland dreams of building Europe’s largest army, against backdrop of Russia’s war against Ukraine

Despite the ridiculous conviction for defamation for 2 yrs by the Surat court, the sentence was stayed for 30 days for Rahul to appeal. But within a day, the Lok Sabha sect has disqualified him!
All to prevent him from speaking on Adani. BJP has stalled Parl for 2 weeks for this pic.twitter.com/J3bJIq1srJ

— Prashant Bhushan (@pbhushan1) March 24, 2023

Bakhmut

Bollywood superstar Amitabh Bachchan injured while filming action scene
Ukraine war: Russia's Wagner boss suggests 'betrayal' in Bakhmut battle The head of Russia's Wagner private army says it is not getting the ammunition it needs from Moscow, as it seeks to gain control of Bakhmut. ...... But Wagner boss Yevgeny Prigozhin says his army's lack of ammunition could be "ordinary bureaucracy or a betrayal". ...... many analysts say it has become a symbolic prize in the war and has little strategic value....... And in a further sign of the rift, on Monday Mr Prigozhin said his representative was unable to access the headquarters of Russia's military command. It is unclear where the headquarters is located. ........ "What if they [the Russian authorities] want to set us up, saying that we are scoundrels - and that's why they are not giving us ammunition, not giving us weapons, and not letting us replenish our personnel, including [recruiting] prisoners?" ....... In Saturday's video, Mr Prigozhin also said Russia's front line would collapse without his troops. ........ The defence ministry said he was inspecting work carried out to "restore infrastructure in the Donbas" - words that are likely to grate in Ukraine, given Russia's responsibility for the destruction.

Wagner chief warns of collapse of Russian front line if there is retreat from Bakhmut the Wagner chief, Yevgeny Prigozhin, uploaded a video on Saturday saying that his troops were fearful they were being “set up” to be blamed if Russia lost its war with Ukraine. He said in the video that without his troops in Bakhmut, Russia’s front line would collapse. ...... Prigozhin has staked his reputation on the battle for Bakhmut, and has been highly critical of what he says is a lack of support from Russia’s defense ministry, while also publicly feuding with the generals in charge of the wider war effort. ...... The Institute for the Study of War wrote over the weekend that Ukraine’s soldiers in the city were not at immediate risk of being encircled by Russian forces........ Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky said in February that the conflict in Bakhmut was getting more difficult, and that Kyiv wouldn’t pay “any price” to defend the city. ...... “On March 5, I wrote a letter to the commander of the [special military operation] grouping about the urgent need to allocate ammunition. On March 6, at 8 a.m., my representative at the headquarters had his pass cancelled and was denied access,” Prigozhin said in a post, according to Reuters.

Russia will keep selling cheap oil at bumped-up levels to India - this is why they're both in it for the long haul, a top analyst explains Even if the Ukraine war ends, Moscow will keep its crude prices cheap for India ....... Russia's bumped-up oil exports to India are here to stay as the two are building a long-term relationship based on cheap prices ........ "The entire India-to-Russia story is a long-term story, which will not suddenly stop. It's going to be a new kind of feature of the market," said Katona, the lead crude oil analyst at commodities intelligence firm Kpler. ......... While China is the top importer of Russia's crude, Moscow has a keen interest in keeping its foot in the door with India. The country's refiners have become an increasingly important market for it after the G-7 countries imposed a price cap and other sanctions meant to crush Russia's energy revenues funding its war in Ukraine. ......... Even if the Ukraine war ends, Katona thinks the discounts will almost certainly remain in place — and the prices might get cheaper from where they are now. India is paying about $10 to $12 dollars below the price ........ India bought almost no Russian crude oil one year ago, but has been snapping up record amounts of crude at discounted costs this year after other countries backed away from Moscow. ........ A key reason is that Indian companies pay on a delivered basis, meaning they don't handle the shipping and insurance. Russia can maximize its profits for the whole transaction in its charges for those extras. Chinese purchasers, in contrast, might insist on using their own fleets ........ big Russian companies don't have equity in China, while they do have ownership stakes in Indian refiners. ......... In January, Russia sent almost 2 million barrels of crude a day to India, not far behind China's nearly 2.5 million, according to Kpler data. Its number three importer is on the edge of the Asia market — Turkey, well behind at around 400 thousand barrels a day. ......... "In a sense, it's not much of a change, because it's only a reshuffling of what was flowing where initially. Europe was buying this. Now India is buying this. It's taken on a longer route, but it's also more discounted" .......... Russia pushes out Saudi Arabia from India, so Saudi Arabia sells more to China ......... India and China, the economic powerhouses of the region, are both buying crude below market levels. Meanwhile, importers in Europe and the US have to pay full price.

NYC super-commuters travel up to 5 hours round-trip to the office. They say it’s worth it

@NandanNilekani Just finished reading your book @imaginingindia Such a contribution to the conversation. Time for a sequel perhaps!

— Paramendra Kumar Bhagat (@paramendra) March 4, 2023

To avert war over Taiwan, a Sino-US joint declaration may be needed https://t.co/1IdLoGSHDb

— South China Morning Post (@SCMPNews) March 3, 2023

To avert war over Taiwan, a Sino-US joint declaration may be needed As was the case with the negotiations with Britain over Hong Kong pre-1997, China could agree to sidestep Taiwan’s political status in talks with the US to explore what impact reunification would have on American and Chinese interests ........ Last year, The Economist named the Taiwan Strait the most dangerous place on Earth. ....... With People’s Liberation Army aircraft flying closer and more frequently to Taiwan, talk of war is pervasive. Taiwan recently extended mandatory military training for its young men from four months to a year. A book by a retired Taiwanese general, advocating asymmetric warfare to defend the island – essentially calling for urban guerilla warfare – was reportedly well received by US military experts and strategists. .........

war in the Taiwan Strait is possible. Beijing has never renounced the use of force to achieve reunification

.......... In 2005, China passed its Anti-Secession Law which stipulates the use of force where there is no hope of a peaceful resolution of the issue. .......... The changing mood is also due to China’s new Taiwan policy framework. President Xi Jinping, in declaring national reunification part of China’s grand rejuvenation, the core of his political agenda to be achieved by 2049, has in effect set a deadline to reunite with the island. This ups the pressure. .......... One way or another, President Xi will achieve this. The question is not when, but how. .......... Beijing’s determination to retake Taiwan may be hard to understand for people outside the country. But it is no different from the US government deciding to take back Hawaii by force if Confederate general Robert Lee had staked out the island after his defeat in the American Civil War. ............ Taiwan is a major supplier to the US of the high-end chips it needs for both commercial and military applications. There are few, if any, alternatives to these microprocessors, which makes the issue of strategic importance. .......... Staying at the top in world affairs, maintaining its technology and military edge, and ensuring the US dollar remains the premium world trade and central bank reserve currency are all a matter of life and death to many in the US leadership. ........... the People’s Liberation Army seems confident of its ability to take Taiwan. ............. There would be war between the US and China only if Beijing has no alternative but to use force and the US decides to intervene. This should be, and can be, avoided. .......... The Sino-British negotiation over Hong Kong could be a possible template. .

The Chinese Proposal Is A Start

You have to start somewhere. An obvious starting point would be to get both Russia and Ukraine to agree on a ceasefire and for Russia to pledge to no longer issue nuclear threats. With that the peace negotiations can begin.

It is not going to be possible for Ukraine to cede any territory, but it could proactively pledge to not join NATO and Russia could pledge to not cross its borders in the future, with China and the US as guarantors for the pledge.

Ukraine could pledge to rearchitect its constitution and have a federal structure and a major devolution of power.

War crimes and destroyed infrastructure and buildings are going to be thorny issues. Instead of making the Russians to pay for it all, the US, China and the EU could help take off some of the load. Bucha asks for judicial action. Some Russian army units might have to face The Hague, or something designed separately and of limited jurisdiction in time.

At that point all sanctions can be lifted.

And the refugees can come home.

22: Ukraine

5/8/23 Update: Goshen (NY) puts Third World corruption to shame, thanks to greedy, corrupt, unethical lawyers like Andra Dumais. ..... I toppled a Third World dictator and German Radio called me Robin Hood On The Internet. I am not going to get intimidated by some small-town racist. Andrea Dumais is a small-town racist. ....... You are treating me worse than the people 2,000 years ago.

21: Putin, Biden

Two Supreme Court cases this week could upend the entire internet An expansion of apps and websites’ legal risk for hosting or promoting content could lead to major changes at sites, including Facebook, Wikipedia and YouTube, to name a few....... Many Republican officials allege that Section 230 gives social media platforms a license to censor conservative viewpoints. Prominent Democrats, including President Joe Biden, have argued Section 230 prevents tech giants from being held accountable for spreading misinformation and hate speech. ........ Rulings in the cases are expected by the end of June. ........ The case involving Google zeroes in on whether it can be sued because of its subsidiary YouTube’s algorithmic promotion of terrorist videos on its platform. ........ Google and other tech companies have said that that interpretation of Section 230 would increase the legal risks associated with ranking, sorting and curating online content, a basic feature of the modern internet. Google has claimed that in such a scenario, websites would seek to play it safe by either removing far more content than is necessary, or by giving up on content moderation altogether and allowing even more harmful material on their platforms. ......... Friend-of-the-court filings by Craigslist, Microsoft, Yelp and others have suggested that the stakes are not limited to algorithms and could also end up affecting virtually anything on the web that might be construed as making a recommendation. That might mean even average internet users who volunteer as moderators on various sites could face legal risks, according to a filing by Reddit and several volunteer Reddit moderators. Oregon Democratic Sen. Ron Wyden and former California Republican Rep. Chris Cox, the original co-authors of Section 230, argued to the Court that Congress’ intent in passing the law was to give websites broad discretion to moderate content as they saw fit. .......... In recent years, however, several Supreme Court justices have shown an active interest in Section 230, and have appeared to invite opportunities to hear cases related to the law. Last year, Supreme Court Justices Samuel Alito, Clarence Thomas and Neil Gorsuch wrote that new state laws, such as Texas’s that would force social media platforms to host content they would rather remove, raise questions of “great importance” about “the power of dominant social media corporations to shape public discussion of the important issues of the day.”

The housing market correction just took a new turn Brutal. That’s the best way to describe KB Home’s fourth quarter, which saw its buyer cancellation rate spike to 68%. That figure dwarfed the publicly traded homebuilder’s 13% cancellation rate from the previous year’s period. It also surpassed the industry’s peak cancellation rate of 47% during the darkest days of the 2008-era crash.

‘Treason!’ Wagner boss slams Russia’s military leaders They want to ‘destroy’ Wagner, says Yevgeny Prigozhin about Russia’s defense minister and army chief........ Yevgeny Prigozhin, founder of the private Wagner Group, has claimed that the Russian defense minister, Sergei Shoigu, and the chief of the general staff, Valery Gerasimov, are trying to “destroy” Wagner — marking an escalation in hostilities between the influential paramilitary boss and Russia’s military establishment. ......... Prigozhin’s remarks are another sign of infighting in the Russian military. Ultranationalist figures such as Prigozhin and Chechen leader Ramzan Kadyrov have long pushed for a restructuring of the top echelons of the military command. ....... The Wagner boss has been continuously increasing power in the shrinking inner circle of Russian President Vladimir Putin

How Vladimir Putin sells his war against ‘the West’ Unable to explain setbacks in Ukraine, the Kremlin appeals to past victories. ....... “It’s unbelievable but true: we are again being threatened by German Leopard tanks,” said Russian President Vladimir Putin, who traveled to Volgograd to deliver a speech on February 2. “Again and again, we have to repel the aggression of the collective West.” ........ Putin’s statement was full of factual inaccuracies: Russia is fighting not the West but Ukraine, because it invaded the country; the German Leopards being delivered to Kyiv date back only to the 1960s; there’s no plan for them to enter Russian territory. ......... But the Russian president’s evocation of former victories was telling — it was a distillation of his approach to justifying an invasion that hasn’t gone to plan. These days in Russia, if the present is hard to explain, appeal to the past. ........... “The language of history has replaced the language of politics,” said Ivan Kurilla, a historian at the European University at St. Petersburg. “It is used to explain what is happening in a simple way that Russians understand.” ........ Putin has long harkened back to World War II — known in the country as The Great Patriotic War, in which more than 20 million Soviet citizens are estimated to have died. ............. On the streets, however, Russians seemed confused. ........ The term “special military operation” at least was somewhat clearer. It suggested a speedy, professional, targeted offensive. ...... As the special military operation turned into a protracted conflict, and the facts on the ground refused to bend to Putin’s narrative, the Kremlin has gradually been forced to change its story. ......... by spring the terms “demilitarization” and “denazification” had practically disappeared from the public sphere .......... In October, Putin declared that one of the main goals of the war had been to provide Crimea, annexed by Russia in 2014, with a stable water supply. .........

But the appeal to history has remained central to Putin’s communication effort.

......... In June, he referenced Peter the Great’s campaign to “return what was Russia’s.” And during an October ceremony to lay claim to four regions in Ukraine, it was Catherine the Great who got a mention. ......... “Especially in spring and early summer, there was an attempt to Sovietize the war, with people waving red flags, trying to make sense of it through that lens.” ........ Throughout, the Kremlin has sought to depict the conflict as a battle against powerful Western interests bent on using Ukraine to undermine Russia — a narrative that has become increasingly important as the Kremlin demands bigger sacrifices from the Russian population ......... “What we observe today is the culmination of that feeling of resentment, of unrealized illusions, especially among those over 50” ......... “We are moving away from a special military operation towards a holy war … against 50 countries united by Satanism,” the veteran propagandist Vladimir Solovyov said on his program in January. .............. Russians are now expecting the war to last another six months or longer. “The majority keep to the sidelines, and passively support the war, as long as it doesn’t affect them directly” ........... reports of Western weapons deliveries have been used to reinforce the argument that Russia is battling the West under the umbrella of NATO — no longer in an ideological sense, but in a literal one. ........... “What started out as a historic metaphor is being fueled by actual spilled blood.” .......... In newspaper stands, Russians will find magazines such as “The Historian,” full of detailed spreads arguing that the Soviet Union’s Western allies in World War II were, in fact, Nazi sympathizers all along — another recycled trope from Russian history. ......... “This level of hatred and aggressive nationalism has not been seen since the late Stalin period”

Zelenskyy: Macron is ‘wasting his time’ with Putin ‘It’s a useless dialogue,’ Ukraine’s president says. ........ Macron added that although he wished for the Kremlin to lose, the war would end not on the battlefield but with peace talks — and that France would “never” support “crushing Russia.” ........ “He likes vodka? If that’s the case, we have some of the finest quality in Ukraine — we can offer him some,” Zelenskyy said. ........ The Ukrainian president also commented on recent reports from the U.S. that China was ready to send weapons to Russia, saying he hoped Beijing would keep a “pragmatic approach,” to avoid a “Third World War.”

Biden’s Military-First Posture in the East Is a Problem A singular focus on countering the threat of Chinese aggression made America neglect economic ties in the Indo-Pacific. ........ Changi Naval Base, which sits on the east coast of Singapore near the busy shipping lanes of the Singapore Strait, has in the first months of 2023 been welcoming well-armed American visitors. Less than two weeks into the new year came a visit from the USS Makin Island, an amphibious assault ship. Days later, the USS Nimitz, an aircraft carrier with a small city’s worth of crew members, made a port call—accompanied by three destroyers. ........ U.S. troops have access to five military bases in the Philippines, which is a former U.S. colony and America’s oldest treaty ally in Asia. Earlier this month, the two countries reached an agreement that gives U.S. forces access to four more. That announcement followed a decision by American and Japanese officials to enhance their military cooperation. ........

The aim—sometimes spoken, other times left unsaid—of such developments is to counter China’s more assertive presence in the region.

Washington now views Beijing as a growing threat to America and its partners and allies there. These concerns have only intensified since a spy balloon launched by China was shot down two weeks ago. Hence the Biden administration’s focus on defense and security in the Indo-Pacific.

19: Russia

19: Ukraine