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Sunday, June 14, 2015

All Of Bihar Is One Big City

English: Map showing location of Nalanda distr...
English: Map showing location of Nalanda district in Bihar in India हिन्दी: भारत के बिहार राज्य के नक़्शे पर नालंदा ज़िले की स्थिति (Photo credit: Wikipedia)
Bihar is the biggest city in the world. The entire state is one super duper megacity. That is how you have to think about it. When futurists talk about the city of the far future, they talk about a city that is self sufficient in food. Well, Bihar is food sufficient. खुदका सब्जी खाते हैं बिहारी। नीतिश का जिस जात में जन्म हुवा वो जात ही है सब्जी उगाने वाला जात। वैसे वो सब्जी नहीं उगाते है, वो राजनीतिक उठापटक करते हैं, वो अलग बात है।

Agriculture तो है ही और रहेगा भी, industrialization भी होगा, क्यों नहीं होगा? But what Bihar is most suited for is the service sector. और उसके लिए you need a super educated population: 100% high school educated, 50% college educated. नालंदा विश्वविद्यालय को हार्वर्ड ऑक्सफ़ोर्ड कैंब्रिज के लेवल पर ले जाना होगा। जब दुनिया में कहीं कोइ हार्वर्ड ऑक्सफ़ोर्ड कैंब्रिज नहीं थी तभी नालंदा विश्वविद्यालय का दुनिया में डंका बजता था। फिर से बजाना होगा। अमर्त्य सेन कैंब्रिज में क्या कर रहे हैं, उनके लिए कुर्सी बनाओ नालंदा में। मैं चाहुँगा मैं billionaire बनु और नालंदा विश्वविद्यालय को बिलियन डॉलर का endowment दूँ। मेरे को बस थोड़ा वक्त दो

The city of the far future does not look like Manhattan, all concrete and very little green. It looks like Bihar, in tune with nature, growing its own food. अमरिका बोस्टन से वाशिंगटन तक एक ही शहर बनाने के सपने देखती है, बिहार तो उससे बड़ा अभी से है।

Agriculture + Education + Service Sector + Completely Clean/Green/Smart Industrialization (Based On Hydroelectricity From Nepal) + Universal Gigabit Broadband = Bihar As One Super Duper Megacity

गुजरात तो मरुभुमि है --- तो वहाँ industrialization नहीं होगा तो क्या होगा? लेकिन बिहार हराभरा है। सारे भारत के इतिहास में आधे महत्वपुर्ण घटनाएँ बिहार में घटी। गांधी का आंदोलन का पहला कदम बिहारमें। सब तो मेरे को मालुम भी नहीं। राजेंद्र प्रसाद बिहार के। बुद्ध को मोक्ष प्राप्ति बिहार में। पाटलिपुत्र। चाणक्य। अमिताभ भी बिहार निकट के हैं। आस परोस। पहले पहले इलाहाबाद बिहार में ही हुवा करता था। फिर अंग्रेजो ने बदमाशी कर दी।

जिस तरह गुजरात के व्यापारी दुनिया भर में फैले हैं उसी तरह बिहार के मास्टरों को दुनिया भर जाना होगा। 12 years of schooling ke master बन जाओ।

बिहार के कस्बे कस्बे तक गीगाबिट ब्रॉडबैंड पहुँचा दो तो there is no need to improve on mud huts. ये नहीं कि बिहार की विकास होगी तो माटी के घर के जगह पे कंक्रीट का महल बनाया जाएगा --- ऐसा नहीं है। When you think of the entire state as one big city, the mud huts can stay. They do not stand in the way of modernity. They are modernity. ये बात आपने याद किया है? फुसके झोपड़ी में air conditioner की जरुरत ही नहीं पड़ती ---- हमारे पुरखाओं ने बहुत सोंच समझ के फुसकी झोपड़ी बनाई। लेकिन malnutrition को बिल्कुल ख़त्म करना होगा --- that stands in the way of modernity. बिहार जब समृद्ध था तो लोग फलाहार किया करते थे। Balanced, healthy diet. अभी देखो गरीबी के मारे ये हाल है एक ही आम के पेड़ पर तीन तीन मुख मंत्री लटक जाते हैं।

Two Megacities On Two Coasts
The Ultimate Megacity: 100 Million People
Bihar@2025
बिहार के लिए फोर्मुला


Bihar@2025

India: A 15% Growth Rate Is Possible
India's Goal: $50 Trillion
मोदी के चाय दोकान पे चर्चा
ये राजा सिंह कौन?
बिहार के लिए फोर्मुला
World, India, Bihar
दलितों के पास दो रास्ता

पहली बार मेरे को लग रहा है नीतिश जित जाएंगे --- इस Bihar@2025 में दम है। डिजिटल टेक्नोलॉजी के माध्यम से इस डॉक्युमेंट को ऐसा किया जा सकता है कि बोल्ने वाले सभी को लगे कि मेरी बात सुनाइ दी और पब्लिक्ली रिकॉर्ड भी की गइ। ये एक जीवन्त डोक्युमेंट बन सकता है। No need for a deadline, कि अब समय ख़त्म है, अब आप अपना विचार शेयर नहीं कर सकते।

Bihar@2025 + Prashant Kishor = Victory for Nitish

इस से जितन और पप्पु neutralize हो जाते हैं।

लेकिन प्रशान्त किशोर का महत्त्व चुनाव के बाद खत्म नहीं हो जाता। His digital ways should also be put to use in governance. He is a political consultant, not a political leader, not a party chief. Amit Shah is party chief.



Bihar growth tops Nitish Kumar's poll agenda
The process to prepare the vision document, billed as the first of its kind, will involve about 4 crore people living in 40,000 villages over the next eight to 10 weeks. Nitish said that the vision document would be prepared on the basis of the people's feedback and interaction with them. "We will go out and seek the opinion of the people on various issues related to development and incorporate it in the vision document," he said. "This is going to be the world's biggest campaign of its kind for public participation. ..... Nitish, on this occasion, sought to highlight all the major achievements of his government in his two tenures right from the 50 per cent reservation for women in the panchayat elections to framing of laws to confiscate the property of the corrupt public servants.
Ahead of polls, Nitish launches Bihar@2025
the world's largest campaign for participatory agenda, Bihar@2025 will collate ideas to produce vision document on development for the next 10 years. ..... it aims to reach out to four crore people residing in 40,000 villages in the state, including 10,000 government and civil society members, over the next eight to 10 weeks. ...... the campaign will elicit views of the people, encourage them to tell about their issues, and what they want in health, electricity, education, employment and other sectors of development. ...... Views will also be sought from people hailing from non-resident Biharis, as well as from specialists in different fields in this regard ....... Our purpose is to establish jan samvad (public interaction) for an interactive vision document. ....... will help prepare the state for a “quantum jump” in socio-economic development. ..... The Bihar Chief Minister listed the successes of his tenure in ensuring better law and order, along with “rule of law”, raising literacy rate from 47 per cent to 62 per cent in the last 10 years, ensuring an enrolment rate of 98.1 per cent in primary schools. ...... Included in the list were increasing road length in the state by 50 per cent, constructing 1,151 bridges, three times growth in per capita income, seven times higher paddy production rate than the national average and charting a faster growth rate of Gross State Domestic Product (GSDP) in comparison to all other states.


Nitish does a Modi, sets up ‘war room’ ahead of polls
Mr. Kishor on Tuesday asked the JD(U) to open the ‘war room’ and improve the media cell. He also had a long meeting with three party spokespersons at the official residence of Mr. Kumar and gave them important lessons on how to issue statements and counter the arguments of BJP leaders. ...... There will be three commanders at the well-equipped ‘war room’. Rajya Sabha member K. C. Tyagi will be the chief commander, assisted by other RS members Pawan Verma and Harivansh. ...... Mr. Kishor asked JD(U) spokespersons to give a “balanced response” when allegations are hurled against the party and to counter the BJP Ministers on “individual basis.” Party spokespersons were also advised to be in touch with each other on a daily basis. .... “Only those who have a complete grasp on an issue should make a statement,” Mr. Kishor advised the spokespersons. ..... Under the programme altogether 400 trucks equipped with TV sets, music systems, microphones and speakers and led by a representative of Mr. Kishor’s team will move from village to village and showcase the government’s achievements.
‘Bihar@2025 campaign is political stunt’



Bihar@2025
‘Charcha’ before Nitish’s ‘chai’ is ready for offer
39,076 events would be held in 150 days to reach a population of four crore during the Bihar poll. Besides, on the footsteps of Narendra Modi’s Chai pe Charcha, for Bihar CM, Kishor plans to have Breakfast with CM. ..... concept of ‘Photo with CM’ and ‘Gaurav Goshti’ will be held while for villages ‘Jan Bhaagidari’ would be launched. ..... Bihar’s success stories like creation of Special Auxillary Police (SAP)––to address shortage in police manpower by recruiting 5,000 ex-army men––and Rs 2,000 for school girls to buy bicycle after they pass their class VIII exams would be highlighted. ...... the success stories would be projected as ‘Bihar Models’ which have been replicated by other states. For example, as they are replicated, both the Bihar models were replicated by different states. SAP was adopted in Odisha, Madhya Pradesh and Jharkhand, while Mukhyamantri Balika Cycle Yojana were adopted by Punjab and Uttar Pradesh. He plans to work on the slogan ‘Badhte Bihar ke 10 Baras’ (Ten years of developing Bihar). ....... “Kishor had expressed a desire to work with Nitish Kumar because he sees a future leader in him. Kishor has already said it on record that he wants to work for Nitish Kumar.” ...... while the BJP successfully used Kishor and his team of 60 professionals for 2012 Gujarat Assembly and 2014 Lok Sabha elections the copy of presentation before the JD(U) top brass reached DNA before the deal was done.
Prashant Kishor: Man pivot of PM Narendra Modi campaign in talks to help steer JD(U) in Bihar election

Saturday, June 13, 2015

India: A 15% Growth Rate Is Possible

India decadal growth rate map
India decadal growth rate map (Photo credit: Wikipedia)
Countries like America and Britain and France and Germany and Japan ended up becoming an awe to China because they grew at something like 5% for decades, for centuries. Not 10%.

China grew at 10% for 30 years. Maybe 25.

If Modi does things right, as I think he will, as I think he is, India should hit 10% in a year or two. And it can stay there for 20-30 years. Maybe longer. But my point is, India could achieve a 15% growth rate. It is possible.

India's Goal: $50 Trillion

Main economic growth rate ki baat kar raha hoon, population growth rate ki nahin. Koi confusion na ho jaye. 


Tough, Challenging Roles For Amitabh

Amitabh Should Do A Movie With Anushka
Happy Birthday Amitabh Bachchan
ह्रदय सम्राट अमिताभ
भारतका विश्व शक्ति बनना और बॉलीवुड

I feel like Amitabh has not been challenged enough yet. I have some suggestions as to roles for him.
  • There is a novel by Gabriel Garcia Marquez. I believe, The General In His Labyrinth. It is a wonderful story of power. I think Amitabh should play this role. And it should be produced in English, with Hindi subtitles for the audience at home. Usi bahane log English bhi sikh le, Modi ko madat ho jayegi. Amitabh deserves a global hit, Amitabh deserves to play a lead role in a movie that hits the mainstream theaters across a country like America. This role would be perfect for him. It would be an Oscar contender. Best Actor award abhi, Lifetime Achievement Award 20 baras baad. Ye jo blog par likhte hain London mein sadak par ghuma, wo din khatam ho jayenge. London mein bhi mobbing shuru. Enjoy your anonymity while it lasts. Soundtrack compelling hona chahiye. Tobey Maguire ko ek role do usmein. Perhaps also Salma Hayek
  • A movie called Bhishm. The ever fresh story of Mahabharata told as through Bhishm's perspective. The movie obviously ends when Bhishm dies. This can be in Hindi with English subtitles. For a global release. Maybe it should not be the old Bhishm story. It should be Bhishm in a 21st century setting. A complete modern interpretation. Today's plot, today's technology, today's venues. 
  • Dawood Ibrahim in old age. Yes, t-h-a-t Dawood. You will need another actor to play the young as well as current Dawood. Amitabh se chehra kista milta julta hai? Maybe Shahrukh can play the younger Dawood. A modern Shakti. Ek hi film mein Shahrukh aur Amitabh
  • A biopic on Jung Bahadur Rana of Nepal. Sometimes you need a small political stage that a small country provides to appreciate the political skills of a political player. Here Salman or Aamir could play the young Jung Bahadur. 
  • Black II 
  • Kaante II 
  • A modern interpretation of the love story around Taj Mahal 
  • A Bollywood interpretation of the New York City underworld. Shot in NYC. English subtitles, global release. Hindi ko UN language banana hai
  • A Mumbai Police Commissioner who plays both sides, a really complex character who does genuinely good things, and obviously bad things, and is unhappy at home. 
  • A NRI tycoon in Africa who befalls really tough times brought about by a regime change. Idi Amin. 
  • A huge multinational's CEO who is struggling to hand over the reigns of his business empire. The film does not have a clear conclusion. NRI. 
  • A man's losing battle with Alzheimer's. 
  • An old man who opts for assisted suicide. The entire movie is vexation. 
  • A Pathan's family story as lived through the partition. Broad theme: India-Pakistan tensions as lived today. Telling both sides of the story. Possibly helping heal rough edges. Both sides have their stories, both sides are right in their own ways. You end up sympathetic to both sides by the time the movie ends. It feels like we are one people after all, torn apart by the British. 
  • An ugly Indian General in Kashmir. 
  • An ugly Indian General in the Northeast. 
  • The story of an adoption. With Amitabh as the adopting father. 
  • Prabhakaran's spiritual Guru and political mentor and chief ideologue. No such person existed, but I guess that is why we will call it fiction. The backdrop gives you all the violence. 
  • A Latin American drug lord who survives longer than any other precisely because he has mastered the art of living in the jungle. Ends up his motivation is not money. Drug lords much younger than him fall like flies left and right. There are huge myths around him. His organization uses the latest in technology, but his lifestyle makes electronic eavesdropping impossible. The story is told through the eyes of a reporter who struggles to get to interview him. The reporter is Anushka Sharma. When she finally meets him, he is seen living like maybe he is a shaman. But, make no mistake, he is the deadliest drug lord in the world. The movie is in English, with Hindi subtitles. Another Oscar contender. India is the largest English speaking country in the world. Main foreign ki baat thode kar raha hoon? The interview itself is like she is not talking to a real person, but a shadow. There are multiple sittings, several of which are attended not by Amitabh but his body doubles. The reporter can't tell. A few times the interview is conducted in the dark where the reporter does not get to see Amitabh only hear him. One of those times, he is not even there, he is talking through a walkie talkie. Ye Amazon ke ghane jungle mein rahte hain. He has detailed knowledge of herbs and ancient medicine. Anushka ke ek ghao ko thik kar deta hai. In a magically short time. He hints herbs keep him young at an old age. Usko emotional counselling bhi deta hai. She was so not expecting that. By the time she is done, she feels like she just interviewed someone who is perhaps as powerful as the President Of The United States. He is the POTUS' alter ego. He is the only person in the world who can claim he in engaged in a personality clash with the POTUS. He sits on top of an equally sophisticated power structure, perhaps more nimble. And because he has no democratic/electoral/public constraints, he is in some ways more powerful. He has global operations. One of his minions is head of state on some island in the Pacific. That much is known. All his political links are not known. His body doubles attend tribal celebrations in far flung areas of the Amazon. They get killed at the rate of one every few years. That adds to the myth. The weirdest part is, the guy does not even have a bank account. It is hard to understand as to why people around him obey him at all. Nobody knows anything about his family, if he has one, who they are. Nobody knows who his top people are. He does not spend two nights in one location. When he travels, he sleeps during the day, and travels through the night. As do his body doubles. He was born part Indian, part Brazilian, and spent the first few years of his life in Trinidad. He was on nobody's radar until he became really big. The POTUS is constantly trying to kill him. The orders inside his organization are, should the POTUS succeed, an attempt is to be made on the POTUS' life. Very possibly a successful attempt. After he has retired and is an easier target. And the body doubles are to keep filling up until that mission is accomplished. 
  • A love story. A man with multiple wives and many children living in a commune of their own. And a business empire he built. The business is software and herbal medicine. The group dynamics inside the company is very unconventional and very cutting edge. It is a woman's world inside the company's power structure. There is collective leadership. 
  • An ageing hereditary Mukhiya, long retired, who makes you empathize with him and his old ways, and have second thoughts about "modern" political processes, institutions and players. He still holds court in his village while holding no official title of power. A local MLA accused of a crime is tried in this "court." It is a one sitting session. Ends up he is not guilty of the accusation. But he was framed because he is a Dalit. The accusation is rape. You see the full glare of the political art of demonization. Until the very end you feel like maybe he is guilty.  
  • The story of a tribal student attending a cutting edge modern high school with his patron (Amitabh) in the backdrop who plucked him out of his village on one his trips. The student is academically gifted but the focus of the story is on his social travails of being a tribal and the emotional suffering that goes with it, the social exclusion. There is very little Amitabh can do except empathize. He creates situations where he is also made to go through situations that are similar. Only once or twice he intervenes to straighten things out. But mostly he just empathizes. 
  • The father of a woman who challenges patriarchy in work and life. Setting: urban India. Towards the end she realizes he understood all along, and was always with her, not just in love and empathy but also in understanding powered by the love. He understood all her complex situations. That amazes her because he has no corporate experience whatsoever. Modern settings, et al. The daughter is Deepika Padukone
लो मैंने ५-६ साल के लिए काम तो दे ही दिया। 







Wednesday, June 10, 2015

Amitabh Should Do A Movie With Anushka



बीरू -- एक लव स्टोरी हो जाये --- age is just a number.

Plot suggestion -------- Amitabh is a 50 year old self made billionaire who has not been in a relationship for over a decade. He is a workaholic, also he is very particular when it comes to women, if he is not into you, he is not into you. It is not like friends did not try to set him up, leading to comic situations: to him it is a game where he enjoys deflecting. And then he meets her. She is 30, and extremely unconventional. An artist who does not care two hoots about money. When she first meets her, she has no idea who he is. She has to look him up online. Later. But what she falls for is he is just as unconventional, in his workspace as well as his personal space. The movie explores that overlap, that outlook, that worldview that both share.

There are ups and downs, and a near going back by Anushka to a former boyfriend, but then the two - Amitabh and Anushka end up in a live in situation, where the movie ends. And Amitabh's work takes wings, he starts scaling new heights. This was something he had not expected. What he likes is that she treats both his career and her career with equal respect. Just because she is an artist making much, much less is immaterial to her. As she sees it, they are both doing creative work. And precisely because she has this monk attitude, she takes to the high life like duck to water. She is fully in it, but still unattached, and she would walk away from him if the relationship did not feel right, which she once almost did.

उसको बाद एक मारधाड़ हो जाये --- आप गुंडों की खूब पिटाई करबाओ। खुद नहीं पीटो। Powerful people don't beat up themselves. They have people who do it for them. Next film after the love story. Back and forth होना चाहिए थोड़ा। कभी love story, कभी action.

Happy Birthday Amitabh Bachchan
ह्रदय सम्राट अमिताभ
भारतका विश्व शक्ति बनना और बॉलीवुड


Tuesday, June 09, 2015

The Tamils Of Sri Lanka And Me

Hillary Clinton And The Global Gender Basics
Does The World Government Have To Await A Total Spread Of Democracy?
World Government And Federal States
Abraham Lincoln?
Blaming Hillary For Benghazi = Blaming W For 9/11
The International Importance Of Owaisi

Percentage of Sri Lankan Tamils per district b...
Percentage of Sri Lankan Tamils per district based on 2001 or 1981 (cursive) census. (Photo credit: Wikipedia)
I was Barack Obama's first full time volunteer in all of New York City. I identify with the blacks in America because I grew up Indian in Nepal. It is hard to explain. How can India be such a big country, and Nepal such a small country, and how can Indians in Nepal be having a hard time?

Well, Nepal is no exception. Indians are having a hard time in every South Asian country, the most glorious example perhaps is Sri Lanka, the most literate South Asian nation. Sri Lanka's high literacy rate is proof political discrimination and persecution is not something on the Human Development Index. Political problems have political solutions, and Sri Lanka's democracy has not delivered for its minority Tamils.

I have never believed in political violence, but when I started my full time work into Nepal's peace process early in 2005, I tried very, very hard to understand the political motives of the armed Maoists. I abstained from demonizing them. I believe in democracy, in human rights. In many ways I am more American than Americans. I believe in a total spread of democracy across the world. And I believe it is possible through peaceful means. And I don't suffer from America's original sin - race - like some white Americans sometimes do. That helps make my thinking on democracy much clearer. My gospel of democracy has no hint of white supremacy in it.

Somethings are political, somethings are personal, some are both. I am a Madhesi in Nepal. When Hridayesh Tripathy, a Nepali politician I admire, first showed up in Kathmandu as a Member Of Parliament, his house was attacked. In the aftermath he threatened to turn Nepal into a Sri Lanka. We Madhesis in Nepal identify with the Tamils in Sri Lanka. The word Tamil exists in Delhi. The word Madhesi does not yet exist in Patna, or Lucknow or Delhi. Power brokers in Delhi do business with the power brokers in Kathmandu who suppress the Madhesis, all the time. It is a terrible blind spot to be in.

At the geopolitical level, China can come in and help the Sri Lankan elite enact genocide on the Tamils, and India has not much to say. A Chinese border incursion in Ladakh is much less offensive.

Tamils should be able to achieve equality in Sri Lanka through democracy, otherwise democracy itself is the wrong tool. Tamils should be able to achieve equality in Sri Lanka through peaceful means, otherwise peaceful methods are suspect. But I don't think democracy is suspect, I don't think peaceful methods are suspect. The right to self determination is a fundamental human right, it is like free speech, it is like freedom of religion.

Sri Lanka is going to go for fedaralism in which there is a Tamil state, and each state in that federal Sri Lanka has a right to self determination, the kind that Scotland and Quebec itch with. And Sri Lanka is going to do that because that is the right thing to do, because that is Sri Lanka's obligation as a signatory to the Universal  Declaration Of Human Rights. Sri Lanka is going to do that because India is a big country and Sri Lanka is a small country, and it can not afford not to. Sri Lanka is going to do that because, if necessary, China itself will be taught a lesson or two in democracy, federalism and human rights. That is why the Tamils are going to be given federalism with the right to self determination. The right to self determination is not a debate, any more than free speech is. It is a right. Every Tamil in Sri Lanka was born with it.

The right to self determination is not a one way road to secession. It is an opportunity for Sri Lanka to become an inclusive state where minorities like Tamils and Muslims get their due share in national life. Sri Lanka is not just for Sinhalas. And if Sinhalas want a country just for them, they should be granted that.

Massive atrocities were committed when Rajapaksha ("Ravana") militarily eliminated the LTTE. Tens of thousands of innocent, civilian Tamils were killed, maimed, violated, scarred for life. Like Stalin said, one death is a tragedy, a million deaths? Statistics. This was Rajapaksha statistics. That was not a democratic act by a democratic leader. And I am glad he has been ousted at the ballot box. I hope some day he is served justice.

A friend of mine, CK Raut, a Cambridge University PhD in Computer Science, was jailed a few months ago, and recently released by orders of the court. His ways are non-violent, and he seeks to create a new country called Madhesh.

My immigration lawyer for the past few years has been a Tamil, a Harvard Law School graduate like Barack Obama: Rudrakumaran Visuvanathan.



Rudra pushes for ICC trial on Lanka
Launching a signature campaign to press for a trial by the International Criminal Court (ICC) into the genocide of Sri Lankan Tamils, Transnational Government of Tamil Eelam (TGTE) Prime Minister V Rudrakumaran on Wednesday said active support of the people of Tamil Nadu was crucial for generating international opinion to render justice to the Sri Lankan Tamils ...... Inaugurating the campaign in Chennai through skype, he urged the United Nations to refer the genocide of Sri Lankan Tamils to the ICC or establish a similar credible international judicial mechanism for investigation and prosecution of the war crimes and genocide. ...... Citing the UN Internal Review Report on Sri Lanka, he said there were 70,000 casualties in the first six months of the war and quoted former US Secretary of State Hilary Clinton who had listed Sri Lanka along with Bosnia, Burma, Congo and Sudan where rape was used a tactic of war. ..... the new Lankan government’s call for a domestic or hybrid mechanism to replace any international judicial process was an attempt to deflect the call for referral to the ICC and to delay other meaningful actions on accountability. Efforts to establish a domestic truth and reconciliation commission, he said would be another diversionary tactic to protect those who committed serious crimes against Tamils. ...... Listing out the reasons for an international investigation, the TGTE Prime Minister said “Even though the President has changed, the political environment vis-a-vis Tamils has not changed. Several former military personnel, including the military commander at the end of the war General Sarath Fonseka are in senior positions in the current government. The fact that the military apparatus is still intact and the militarisation of the north east continues to perpetuate fear among Tamils and had a deep impact on day to day activities. Therefore, it is unlikely that victims and witnesses will be truly independent before a domestic or hybrid tribunal”. ....... Besides, President Sirisena has served as Defence Minister during the end of the war, when large number of Tamils were killed and Sri Lanka did not have criminal provisions for war crimes, crimes against humanity and genocide. ...... The unitary Lankan State and judiciary were not ethnically neutral and most of the crimes were perpetrated by the State apparatus. The island judiciary was always subservient to political leadership when it came to abuses against Tamils. Even under a Tamil Chief Justice, no prosecution was ever brought against anyone for the mass killings of Tamils in 1983, he added.

Monday, June 08, 2015

Bihar Is Now 55-45

For Nitish and Laloo to come together and for Laloo to agree to declaring Nitish the chief ministerial candidate: these two developments have boosted Nitish' prospects, but it might still not be enough to take him past the finish line. This prevents a total wipeout like in the 2014 Lok Sabha elections. But if the BJP manages to rope in both Jitan and Pappu, both of whom are opposed to Nitish, it suddenly starts looking 60-40 or better for the BJP.

The wild card here is not who will ally with whom but respecting that all elections are about the future. What will Nitish do over the next five years? If he goes on the Give Me My Wages tangent like in 2014, he will lose, possibly decisively.

Nitish is more charismatic than Sushil Modi who still acts like he is trying to get away from under Nitish' shadow. Otherwise SuMo has a legitimate claim that he was crucial - indispensable - to Nitish giving seven excellent years as Chief Minister. It was the BJP that administered the road and health departments which showed some of the best work.

Sushil Modi should tell the people of Bihar what he will do over the next five years.

One of these two will become Chief Minister, the other will be Opposition Leader.

Another wild card is PM Modi. If he makes enough campaign stops, he will make a bad situation worse for Nitish. A victory in Bihar gives NaMo greater leg room in the Rajya Sabha, gives him a political boost nationally as he starts his second year, and brightens his prospects for Uttar Pradesh, a twice big a prize, and one that would cure all his Upper House woes. It is like NaMo needs the Bihar victory more than SuMo does. So expect him to campaign hard and make life miserable for Nitish.