Barackface

Monday, January 27, 2014

Modi, Rahul, Nitish, Or Kejriwal?

Narendra Modi at a BJP rally (Photo credit: Al Jazeera English)

(written for Vishwa Sandesh)

Modi is the only politician in India running for Prime Minister right now. Rahul, the number two name being thrown around, is not even an official PM candidate. Nitish is not a declared candidate, and it is to be seen how many seats his party will manage to win in Bihar. Kejriwal managed an impressive victory in Delhi but some of his antics in power have given many people a pause as to whether he is ready for prime time.

Polls show Modi will manage to push the BJP past the 200 mark. The thing about the 2002 riots in Gujrat is the Supreme Court of India has said Modi is not responsible. Rule of law says that means you can not hang the 2002 riots around Modi's neck. You can not blame Modi for 2002 any more than you could have blamed Rajiv Gandhi for 1984.

The BJP could end up winning 40 seats in Uttar Pradesh out of the 80 available there. There is some indication it could win 20 seats in Bihar out of the 40 available there, although I am surprised Nitish will not do better.

If the BJP wins 200 seats, the Congress 100 seats, and the others end up with 245 seats, is that a victory for Modi? Maybe, maybe not.

That might create room for a coming together of the non Congress, non BJP parties. And if they manage to get together around someone like Nitish, you can be sure the Congress will join the anyone but Modi bandwagon. So Modi will have 200 MPs. The tally for the anti-Modi camp will stand at 345. As in, Modi might peak before a single vote has been cast.

On the other hand, the BJP as the largest party might manage to get a few parties to come along. If it manages to get two parties with 20 MPs each, it will be that much closer to the halfway mark.

Modi's elevation to the top job is going to create an uncomfortable scenario for America. Modi dreams of an India that Americans queue up to get into. He has already created a Gujrat that beats all but a few European economies.

With a few months to go, Modi still has plenty of time to make stump speeches. That gives him time to do better than 200.

Modi in Delhi and Nitish in Patna might not be such bad scenarios. Who will keep doing for Bihar what Nitish has been doing? On the other hand, Bihar's next wave of growth might be about gaining special status, and the best way to get that might be by sending Nitish to Delhi.

Bihar, West Bengal, Jharkhand and Orissa together have 100 seats. This Eastern block might be that platform that catapults Nitish to Delhi. For as well as Nitish has done in Bihar as Chief Minister, one would think he should be able to grab 30 of the state's 40 seats. But then you also are looking at a resurgent Laloo.

Modi has momentum right now, but a few months are a very long time in Indian politics. Anything could happen between now and then. Modi's laser focus on the economy has been serving him well. It is also helping that he is actually running for the top job. He was not born into a high caste well to do family. At one point in his life he was selling tea at a railway station.

At the end of the day it might boil down to Modi and Nitish. But a Nitish with 12 MPs will not be a factor. A Nitish with 25 MPs will be.

One just hopes whoever it is puts India on a path to double digit growth rates for the next few decades. India deserves nothing less. If Modi is that person, he will get 120 months. He has been asking for 60. If he gets 200 seats, becomes Prime Minister, and gives India double digit growth rates, the next time the people might give him 250 seats.

Godhra is not the issue, double digit growth rates are. That makes you think. Why is Nitish not running for Prime Minister? His economic record as Chief Minister is better than that of Modi. Gujrat was already a leading state when Modi took over. Nitish remade Bihar.

Nitish and Laloo should have been natural allies. Both have been Chief Ministers. Both have been Railway Minister. Nitish is an excellent Chief Minister. Laloo was an excellent Railway Minister. An electoral alliance that gives 25 seats to Nitish, 10 to Laloo and five to others like Paswan would sweep the state. Nitish alone contesting all 40 seats could do well just fine too.

Things are heating up. Those who can attend rallies. Those who can't watch it on YouTube. The next few months are going to be a nail-biter. And we did not even talk about the South.

There Jayalalita is a wild card. She is "secular" about Modi. She is a declared PM candidate. She might be the first to gravitate towards Modi should he offer the DPM slot to her, and all Third Front talk might go down the tube with that one move.

Wednesday, January 01, 2014

124 States Of America

The 124 states of America

Saturday, December 28, 2013

Modi On 2002

English: Narendra Modi in Press Conference (Photo credit: Wikipedia)

My dear sisters and brothers,

The law of nature is that Truth alone triumphs – Satyameva Jayate. Our judiciary having spoken, I felt it important to share my inner thoughts and feelings with the nation at large.

The end brings back memories of the beginning. The devastating earthquake of 2001 had plunged Gujarat into the gloom of death, destruction and sheer helplessness. Hundreds of lives were lost. Lakhs were rendered homeless. Entire livelihoods were destroyed. In such traumatic times of unimaginable suffering, I was given the responsibility to soothe and rebuild. And we had whole heartedly plunged ourselves into the challenge at hand.

Within a mere five months however, the mindless violence of 2002 had dealt us another unexpected blow. Innocents were killed. Families rendered helpless. Property built through years of toil destroyed. Still struggling to get back on its feet from the natural devastation, this was a crippling blow to an already shattered and hurting Gujarat.

I was shaken to the core. ‘Grief’, ‘Sadness’, ‘Misery’, ‘Pain’, ‘Anguish’, ‘Agony’ – mere words could not capture the absolute emptiness one felt on witnessing such inhumanity.

On one side was the pain of the victims of the earthquake, and on the other the pain of the victims of the riots. In decisively confronting this great turmoil, I had to single-mindedly focus all the strength given to me by the almighty, on the task of peace, justice and rehabilitation; burying the pain and agony I was personally wracked with.

During those challenging times, I often recollected the wisdom in our scriptures; explaining how those seating in positions of power did not have the right to share their own pain and anguish. They had to suffer it in solitude. I lived through the same, experiencing this anguish in searingly sharp intensity. In fact, whenever I remember those agonizing days, I have only one earnest prayer to God. That never again should such cruelly unfortunate days come in the lives of any other person, society, state or nation.

This is the first time I am sharing the harrowing ordeal I had gone through in those days at a personal level.

However, it was from these very built up emotions that I had appealed to the people of Gujarat on the day of the Godhra train burning itself; fervently urging for peace and restraint to ensure lives of innocents were not put at risk. I had repeatedly reiterated the same principles in my daily interactions with the media in those fateful days of February-March 2002 as well; publically underlining the political will as well as moral responsibility of the government to ensure peace, deliver justice and punish all guilty of violence. You will also find these deep emotions in my recent words at my Sadbhavana fasts, where I had emphasized how such deplorable incidents did not behove a civilized society and had pained me deeply.

In fact, my emphasis has always been on developing and emphasizing a spirit of unity; with the now widely used concept of ‘my 5 crore Gujarati brothers and sisters’ having crystallised right at the beginning of my tenure as CM itself from this very space.

However, as if all the suffering was not enough, I was also accused of the death and misery of my own loved ones, my Gujarati brothers and sisters. Can you imagine the inner turmoil and shock of being blamed for the very events that have shattered you!

For so many years, they incessantly kept up their attack, leaving no stone unturned. What pained even more was that in their overzealousness to hit at me for their narrow personal and political ends, they ended up maligning my entire state and country. This heartlessly kept reopening the wounds that we were sincerely trying to heal. It ironically also delayed the very justice that these people claimed to be fighting for. Maybe they did not realize how much suffering they were adding to an already pained people.

Gujarat however had decided its own path. We chose peace over violence. We chose unity over divisiveness. We chose goodwill over hatred. This was not easy, but we were determined to commit for the long haul. From a life of daily uncertainty and fear; my Gujarat transformed into one of Shanti, Ekta and Sadbhavana. I stand a satisfied and reassured man today. And for this, I credit each and every Gujarati.

The Gujarat Government had responded to the violence more swiftly and decisively than ever done before in any previous riots in the country. Yesterday’s judgement culminated a process of unprecedented scrutiny closely monitored by the highest court of the land, the Honourable Supreme Court of India. Gujarat’s 12 years of trial by the fire have finally drawn to an end. I feel liberated and at peace.

I am truly grateful to all those who stood by me in these trying times; seeing through the facade of lies and deceit. With this cloud of misinformation firmly dispelled, I will now also hope that the many others out there trying to understand and connect with the real Narendra Modi would feel more empowered to do so.

Those who derive satisfaction by perpetuating pain in others will probably not stop their tirade against me. I do not expect them to. But, I pray in all humility, that they at least now stop irresponsibly maligning the 6 crore people of Gujarat.

Emerging from this journey of pain and agony; I pray to God that no bitterness seeps into my heart. I sincerely do not see this judgement as a personal victory or defeat, and urge all – my friends and especially my opponents – to not do so as well. I was driven by this same principle at the time of the Honourable Supreme Court’s 2011 judgement on this matter. I fasted 37 days for Sadbhavana, choosing to translate the positive judgement into constructive action, reinforcing Unity and Sadbhavana in society at large.

I am deeply convinced that the future of any society, state or country lies in harmony. This is the only foundation on which progress and prosperity can be built. Therefore, I urge one and all to join hands in working towards the same, ensuring smiles on each and every face.

Once again, Satyameva Jayate!

Vande Mataram!

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