Friday, June 26, 2015

India: Is The Private Sector Being A Drag?

Share of financial sector in gross domestic pr...
Share of financial sector in gross domestic product 1860 to 2006 (Photo credit: Wikipedia)
मोदी तो अपना काम कर रहे हैं। ढेर सारा FDI देश में ला रहे हैं। Infrastructure का काम तेजी से हो रहा है। प्राइवेट सेक्टर को क्या चाहिए?
  • Simplified Land Acquisition बहुत जरुरी है। 
  • Hiring and Firing should be a simple process. Entrepreneurship is not a government job scheme. 
  • FDI चाहिए और बहुत चाहिए। 
  • भारत के financial markets में तो कोइ त्रुटि नहीं? मेरेको उतना knowledge नहीं। मैं सिर्फ पुछ रहा हुँ। 
  • You need a well educated and healthy population. वो प्राइवेट सेक्टर की जिम्मेवारी नहीं। 
तो लैंड acquisition के बात पर तो विपक्ष वाले टांग अड़ाए हुवे हैं। उसी तरह labor mobility पर भी तो। उसके अलावे मेरी instincts कह रही है कुछ fundamental financial sector reforms की जरुरत हो सकती है। Bad loans are a bad idea. Corrupt governments tend to accumulate a lot of them. Big banks with lots and lots of bad loans accumulated through crony capitalism tend to be a major drag on the economy overall. The policy framework should encourage the create of small, agile, numerous financial institutions. Maybe there are banks that are too big and should be broken up into smaller pieces through policy initiatives. Market competitiveness has to be maintained in the financial sector, and that is the government's responsibility. 

But I have been impressed with people like Adani and Ambani being able to tap into the global financial markets for some pretty large scale cheap loans. Bond markets में आप को ५% पर बिलियन के बिलियन डॉलर मिल जाते हैं। वो तो सस्ता हुवा। And unless you have a healthy company you can't get those loans. So they must be maintaining strong fundamentals inside their corporate environments. 

और कुछ फैक्टर्स हैं जो काबु के बाहर होते हैं ------ जैसे कि oil prices या फिर मॉनसून।

Bankruptcy laws भी कैसे हैं? It should be easy to launch companies, it should be easy to run companies, and it should be easy to bury companies. कि मैंने प्रयास किया लेकिन नहीं हुवा। When your company goes bankrupt, after that you don't owe anyone anything. And that is fundamental to capitalism. The number one aspect of the Silicon Valley culture is that there failure is celebrated.

Private sector को किस किस्मका policy reforms चाहिए ओ तो private sector को आगे आ के कहना होगा। किस किस्मका policy framework चाहिए। Entrepreneurs create jobs, they should be part of the policy making conversation. They should have a seat at the table. They should not have the only seat at the table. But their not having a seat at the table also is a problem.

Why Economists See PM Modi's Second Year as More Challenging
Domestic companies have posted disappointing earnings for the March quarter that does not match the upbeat headline GDP figure. Industrial production is at five-month low, exports are declining for five months in a row and bank credit offtake remains at two-decade lows.

नीतिश और लालु को अनुशासन दिखानी होगी

First President of India Deshratna Dr Rajendra...
First President of India Deshratna Dr Rajendra Prasad,Prime Minister Pandit Jawahar Lal Nehru & Bihar Deputy Chief Minister Dr Anugrah Narayan Sinha at Anugrah babu's residence in Patna(Bihar) (Photo credit: Wikipedia)
(Sitting L to R)Rajendra Prasad and Anugrah Na...
(Sitting L to R)Rajendra Prasad and Anugrah Narayan Sinha during Mahatama Gandhi's 1917 Champaran Satyagraha (Photo credit: Wikipedia)
English: Bihar Districts
English: Bihar Districts (Photo credit: Wikipedia)
"उड़ती चिड़िया को हल्दी लगाती है बिहार का वोटर!"
---- श्री लालु प्रसाद यादव

नीतिश और लालु को अनुशासन दिखानी होगी। अभी देश में सिर्फ thoughtful Opposition के लिए जगह है। जब तक देश में गरीबी है। नहीं तो मैं चाहुँगा मोदी को राज्य सभा में भी बहुमत मिल जाए।

३०-७० पर थे दोनों जब झगड़ रहे थे। झगड़ा खत्म हुवा तो ४५-५५ पर आए। Bihar@2025 कहा तो ५५-४५ पर आए। बीजेपी कैम्प में झगड़ा शुरू हुवा तो इनका पलड़ा भारी पड़ा, ये ६५-३५ पर पहुँच गए। लेकिन अभी समय है, बीजेपी वाले वो झगड़ा सुलह कर लेते हैं और जितन और पप्पु को भी साथ ले लेते हैं तो फिर ५५-४५ पर शायद आ जाएँ।

Bihar@2025 is key. वो मैसेज जितना बुलन्द रहेगा नीतिश की स्थिति उतनी ही मजबुत है।

लेकिन ग्रोथ रेट को hurt करने वाला कोइ काम ना करें। गरीबी को कब तक कायम रखे रहिएगा?


भारतको १५% ग्रोथ रेट चाहिए



भारतको १५% ग्रोथ रेट चाहिए और ये काम है मोदीका। ये चीनके डेंग स्याउ पिंग और सिंगापुर के ली कुऑन यु टु इन वन हैं। सारे दुनिया की नजर है इन पर। सारी की सारी अफ्रिकी महादेश गौर से देख रही है। जापान देख रहा है। अमरिका देख रही है। चीन देख रहा है।

मान लो ये हमारे मोदीजी योग करते रहते हैं और सेहत बनाए रखते हैं और २० साल राज करते हैं। १०% तक पहुँचने में इनको अभी शायद दो साल और लगे। १०% पर पहुँचे तो re-election की गारण्टी हो गयी। १० से १५ तक पहुँचने में अगर ५ साल लग जाए तो वो कम है, यानि की magical है। १५% से ज्यादा जाना बहुत कठिन है। असंभव नहीं लेकिन बहुत ही कठिन है। लेकिन १५ तक ले गए और उसके बाद १५ पर मेन्टेन किए रहे, वही एक वर्ल्ड रेकॉर्ड हो जाएगा।

२०१४ में ६%
२०१५ में ७.५%
२०१७ में १०%
२०२२ में १५%
२०३४ तक १५%

अभी अमरिका है १७ ट्रिलियन पर। अगर वो ३% के रेट पर आगे बढ़ता है तो उसको ३४ ट्रिलियन तक पहुँचने में २५ साल लगभग लग जाएंगे। भारत है २ ट्रिलियन पर। २०२१ तक औसत १०% से आगे बढ़ा तो २०२१ में ४ ट्रिलियन। उसके बाद १५% पर आगे बढ़ा तो २०२६ में ८ ट्रिलियन, २०३१ में १६ ट्रिलियन। २०३६ में ३२ ट्रिलियन। हो गयी अमरिका के साथ parity ----- लेकिन वो तो सिर्फ GDP parity हुइ --- बात उसकी नहीं बात प्रति व्यक्ति आय की है।

भारतको २०५० तक नॉन स्टॉप १५% कायम रखना होगा। संभव है। मोदी को एक राजनीतिक धर्म पुत्र की जरुरत पड़ेगी। २०३४ के बाद बागडोर सम्हाल्ने के लिए।

India Agenda: 100 World Class Universities
१५% Growth Rake कैसे Achieve करें
मोदी और सौर्य उर्जा
A Genuine World Government
मोदी, नीतिश, नेपाल, नेपालके मधेसी और मैं
दिल्लीमा सम्मेलन गरेको भए ६ बिलियन आउँथ्यो
४% १०% १५%
१५% और १०% में फर्क
All Of Bihar Is One Big City
Bihar@2025
India: A 15% Growth Rate Is Possible

६ से ७.५% तक पहुँचे creative accounting से
जेटली जी का जो GST Bill है वो लागु कर दो तो २% add हो जाता है -- हुवा ९.५%
सौर्य ऊर्जा से १०० गीगावाट बिजली पैदा करो तो १% add हो जाता है --- हुवा १०.५%
सौर्य ऊर्जा से और ५०० गीगावाट बिजली पैदा करो तो ३% add हो जाता है --- हुवा १३.५%
बिहार को २०% पर आगे बढ़ने के लिए बोलो तो १% और आ जाता है ---- हुवा १४.५%

बाँकी का ०.५% का व्यवस्था खुद कर लो। मेरा क्युँ दिमाग खाए जा रहे हो?


  • प्रत्येक १००,००० किलोमीटर सड़क बनाने से १% add हो जाती है। 
  • भारत और पाकिस्तान के बीच सम्बन्ध normalization हो जाए तो उससे १% add हो जाती है। 
  • सौर्य ऊर्जा से बिजली का उत्पादन बढ़ा के १००० गीगावाट पर ले जाओ तो ३% और add हो जाती है। 
  • प्रत्येक भारतीय टॉयलेट का प्रयोग करे तो बीमारियाँ कम फैलेंगे और पैसे की बचत होगी, इस कदम से १% add हो जाती है। 
  • देश को १००% high school graduates और ५०% college graduates का देश बना दो तो उससे ३ से ५% का फायदा है। 
  • भारतीयों के पास जितना सोना है सबको बैंकिंग सिस्टम में लाओ तो उससे २ से ३% add हो जाती है। काला धन की बात करो, लेकिन देश के भितर'रहे सुनहरा धन की बात ज्यादा करो। 
  • अफ्रिका के साथ trade बढ़ाओ, अमरिका, युरोप, चीन, सब जगह। २-३% तो वहाँ भी है। 
  • प्रत्येक भारतीय को ब्रॉडबैंड से कनेक्ट कर दो ----- २% तो उसी से आ जाएगा। 
हम तो माँग रहे थे १५ लेकिन लगता है मिलेगा २०! 

Clean/Green Energy अहं महत्त्व रखती है --- ये न कि १०% पार किए लेकिन फेंफड़े सुख गए। 



Ye Racism Hai

Children from a village in Bihar, India.
Children from a village in Bihar, India. (Photo credit: Wikipedia)
The Economist's Coverage Of Modi Anniversary: Poor

Look at this article in The Washington Post, a respectable, mainstream, top circulation newspaper in America.

The title itself is a put down. It is not a choice between water/power and 100 smart cities. Indians deserve both and will get both. These are people who can't India achieving First World status.

The Washington Post: India wants to build 100 ‘smart cities.’ Residents just want water and power.

१५% Growth Rake कैसे Achieve करें
मोदी और सौर्य उर्जा
A Genuine World Government
Bihar@2025 = $240 Billion
४% १०% १५%
१५% और १०% में फर्क

Lalit Modi Who?

English: Image of Narendra Modi at the World E...
English: Image of Narendra Modi at the World Economic Forum in India (Photo credit: Wikipedia)
My first thought was, if you are attacking both Sushma Swaraj and Vijayaraje Scindia at the same time, it has got to be a sexist attack. And if the attacks are coming from both inside the party and outside, then confirmed, this is a sexist attack.

Then they drag Narendra Modi in. That is how media gathers eyeballs. You build someone up. Then you break them down. You get eyeballs both ways.

I don't have time to be reading sludge. This is going to be the first article I read on the topic.

Return of the scandals: Where does PM Narendra Modi go from here?
No one quite expected the country to transform suddenly and shake off the legacy of the past. But there was a widespread expectation that since Modi was 'clean' and 'strong' - as opposed to Manmohan Singh who was 'clean' but 'weak', the government would remain clean. This is what the PM capitalised on when he said the absence of scams was a sign 'ache din' had arrived during the first anniversary celebrations. ....... Irrespective of the rhetoric, both Congress and BJP have been closely enmeshed with capital. Democratic politics as we practice, needs money. Elections are expensive business. Politicians accumulate wealth which they invest in businesses, or outsource to certain businessmen to manage. Businessmen hope they have backed the right horses and when the time comes, they can reap rewards for their investment. This is not specific to India, but has been an established fact across the world. Quid pro quo exists. ......... The question is if political systems are able to institute a degree of transparency (for instance, make public all the funding that is received or have state funding for parties in elections); regulation (for instance, restrict the amount of funding; keep close track of transactions; legalise lobbying); reduce the extent of discretionary decision making in government; and have strong avoidance of conflict of interest laws..........To give credit where its due, the Modi sarkar has recognised that it is in natural resource allocation that discretion and crony capitalism is most acute - they have made an effort to correct this partly through cleaner spectrum and coal allocations. But there are a range of other sectors where discretion is rampant. Cricket is an obvious example where a deeply unhealthy relationship exists between politics as money and glamour - the PM himself is a part of this nexus as a former president of the Gujarat Cricket Association. The line between encouraging a business friendly environment (a stated goal of this government) and between encouraging select, friendly businessmen is a thin one. And BJP, like its predecessors, under the garb of the former, does not shy away from doing the latter.
Narendra Modi goes from 7.5% to 10% --- that is where.

So I read the article. I still don't know what the accusation is. Time waste kar diya.

America Is Now Gay Marriage Country

Crowd in support of Gay Marriage
Crowd in support of Gay Marriage (Photo credit: Wikipedia)
Nepal became a gay marriage country years ago.
As in earlier civil rights cases, the Supreme Court had moved cautiously and methodically, laying careful judicial groundwork for a transformative decision.
This is the biggest civil rights victory I have seen in America in my lifetime. This is truly historic.

The U.S. just joined a league of 21 countries in which gay marriage is legal
Gay marriage was approved by the legislature in The Netherlands in 2000, making it the first country in the world to do so.
The Supreme Court just did Republicans a huge favor on gay marriage
"Marriage between a man and a woman was established by God, and no earthly court can alter that," said Bobby Jindal -- and the careful line-walking -- "I believe in traditional marriage. ... I also believe that we should love our neighbor and respect others, including those making lifetime commitments," said Jeb Bush..... The I disagree but it's the law of the land line is difficult to argue against; it's the line most establishment Republican candidates now use when abortion is brought up as an issue in a Republican primary.
Next stop: Guns. You need a mirror image organization to the NRA. A regimented organization, perhaps of moms who lost sons to guns. Getting organized is key.

ISIS Holds Territory

Khobar Towers bombing in Dhahran, Saudi Arabia...
Khobar Towers bombing in Dhahran, Saudi Arabia on 25 June 1996. (Photo credit: Wikipedia)
The Al Qaeda never did. It was like a parasite. The host was Taliban.

The ISIS is not a state, the way you and I think about states. For example, it has no desire to join the United Nations. It is a terrorist organization, pure and simple. The virus has mutated.

ISIS Territory Is The New Rwanda

ISIS commanding territory, and generating huge daily revenues from oil and drug trafficking and what have you has got to be on the radar.

It was only a matter of time. These attacks were going to come.

When the fight between capitalism and communism started, it did not end with communism losing. Capitalism itself morphed. It digested some elements of communism. There were things like the welfare state.

Islam seeks respect. We want to move towards a world where Muslims are not living in the slums of democracies. They are in the mainstream. But that has to be brought about by the forces of democracy.

ISIS is a physical attacks problem. I am no military expert.

ISIS can not be allowed to hold territory. ISIS can not be allowed revenues. Right now it is collecting millions per day.

ISIS is going to force the US to think maybe Arab monarchies are anachronisms.

The US is not exactly winning the War On Terror right now. This is a new virus. And it is deadlier than the Al Qaeda. Bin Laden's death was but a blip. Now it looks like.

The bottom line is this is an ideological struggle. An ideological struggle with clear physical components. But primarily an ideological struggle. This is a war of words first and foremost.

These guys will not stop at anything. If they can build a dirty bomb, they w-i-l-l detonate it. That is how clear they are in their intentions. If they can't bring that dirty bomb to America, they will detonate it in Africa, or in some Arab country. That event will make 9/11 look like a picnic.

The Cold War lasted almost half a century. The War On Terror was never going to be over in 10 years.

I still think beaming the internet from the skies and flooding the Muslim world with cheap Android phones is the number one and best tool. Elon Musk has a pan. Fund it. It is the cheapest and the least bloody.

Also, there is no avoiding the fact that the only way to tackle Climate Change is by creating a genuine 21st century world government. Climate Change and terrorism are twin challenges. They are similar. They only have global solutions.

ISIS claims deadly mosque attack in Kuwait Terrorist Attacks in France, Tunisia and Kuwait Kill Dozens
“The Kuwait operation is especially dangerous, as this is ISIS’ first operation in a gulf state,” Mr. Riedel said in an email. “The others will be deeply alarmed.” ..... “Muslims, embark and hasten toward jihad,” said the Islamic State’s spokesman, Abu Mohammed al-Adnani, in an audio message released this week. “O mujahedeen everywhere, rush and go to make Ramadan a month of disasters for the infidels.” ...... United States intelligence and counterterrorism officials were scrambling on Friday to assess the connections, if any, between the attacks in France, Kuwait and Tunisia. Officials said that if the assessment found that the attacks were linked, officials would seek to determine whether the Islamic State had actively directed, coordinated or inspired them...... the assault resembled others launched by ISIS recently on Shiite mosques in neighboring Saudi Arabia ..... “This is something that was planned,” she said. “It was not just one guy who decided to put on a suicide belt and go in there.”
Attacks hit three continents amid fears of escalating Islamist violence
Emergency security meetings were called across Europe, and French police were dispatched to protect “sensitive sites” ..... Tunisian authorities reeled with another blow to its vital tourism industry, three months after 22 people were gunned down at the world-famous Bardo museum in the capital, Tunis. In Kuwait, the prime minister, Sheik Jaber al-Sabah, denounced the blast at a Shiite mosque as a direct attack at “national unity.” ..... France’s interior minister, Bernard Cazeneuve, also said a suspect arrested — identified by French media as Yassin Sahli — was on a watch list between 2006 and 2008 of potential followers of a radical branch of Islam, but had been taken off surveillance. ...... In a communique circulated by Islamic State-linked social media accounts online, the group said one of its members, Abu Suleiman al-Mowahid, detonated a belt of explosives at a “gathering of apostates.” ...... The Kuwait attacks followed similar mosque blasts in neighboring Saudi Arabia targeting Shiite worshipers. The Saudi attacks also were claimed by the Islamic State, whose extremist Sunni followers view Shiites as heretics.
Islamic State said to kill scores in Syrian border city
Islamic State jihadists engaged in a bloody rampage in the Kurdish-majority Syrian city of Kobani and its environs on Friday, officials said, executing at least 142 civilians before withdrawing as vicious fighting continued in the town for a second day........ described the attack as "a crime against humanity ... it's a barbaric massacre" ....... "The executions were perpetrated against entire families, [they were] completely exterminated," he said, adding that the death total would make this the second largest massacre perpetrated by the group. At least 28 Islamic State militants were killed in the clashes.