Friday, December 25, 2015

India: Holding Two Elections Every Five Years

Indian general election, 2009
Indian general election, 2009 (Photo credit: Wikipedia)
I think that would be a great idea. The entire country has only two election dates every five years. The national elections and half the state elections are held on one day. State elections for the rest of the states are held on the other day. And all local elections are also held on one of the two days.

For the state elections it would be a good idea to get half the country (by population) vote on one day, and the other half on the other day. If you put together the North-East, West Bengal, Sikkim, Bihar, and Uttar Pradesh in one basket, would that be half the country? If not add a few more adjacent states. 

Basically you get rid of the idea of mid-term elections. Parliaments do full terms. Why not? 

With the current system, you can get a decisive mandate for the Lok Sabha and still feel like you never really got a mandate. Elections are never over. There's always a major election just round the corner. Bihar is over, Uttar Pradesh is on. That is democratic chaos. 

This would also boost local bodies. You can't have a robust democracy if you don't have robust local bodies. The local bodies are the most exciting part of the democracy. The people get to actively participate. 

Because local elections can be held on either of the two days, both dates will feel like national election days. Maybe the rule should be you can't hold the state and the local election on the same day. That way states will use one date for the state level and the other for the local level election.

And the two dates should be a Sunday. 

Abhi to jo hai chaos hai. 


Thursday, December 24, 2015

Bill Clinton Took Three Years

The guy who gave America its longest peacetime economic expansion took three years to show he was up to something. 1993 was dud, 1994 was dud, 1995 was a dud. But US in 1992 is not India in 2014. The US was already a First World Country at the time. There was no fundamental infrastructure to build. The Indian democracy is so much more complex, one of the smartest Americans ever to become ambassador to India simply referred to it as "the imponderables of Indian politics," JFK's John Kenneth Galbraith.

Narendra Modi has been doing excellent work. At a fundamental level. The GST bill alone will give India another two points in terms of growth. And with everything else he has been doing, I see the economy going past a 10% growth rate before he has to go to the people again in 2019. If the growth rate is past 10%, he will see re-election. I have no doubts in my mind. Right now I don't see how the growth rate will not go past 10%. It has to. He has been doing excellent work. But India is such a big country, so complex, so democratic, the work will take some time to show visible bounce. The challenge is not to get it past 10%, the challenge is to keep it past 10% for 30 years. Modi doing 20 years would make sense.

I will give the guy two more years before I start judging him. People who can't see the people gave him a five year mandate last year don't know the ABC of politics. Bihari voters are smart. They had zero doubts about whether Modi was going to shift from Delhi to Patna. So they picked the guy who is the best man for the job. Nitish Kumar is every bit as skillful a politician.

Bill Clinton is not a good comparison for Narendra Modi. Clinton had it easy by Modi's standards. A more appropriate comparison would be Deng Xiaoping. Deng took much longer, and his work really started showing visible results only after he was dead and gone. At least Indians don't need to wait that long. 2019 will have been long enough for Modi.

The BJP is slated to lose almost all, quite possibly all, state elections next year. And that is nothing to do with Modi. That is to do with state dynamics in each case. The media should take lessons in democracy from the sophisticated Bihari voters who seem to know the difference between a national election and a state election.

The only time Modi matters again at the booth is in 2019.



Narendra Modi: The Limits of a Political Rock Star
After a soaring 2014, this was the year the Indian prime minister and the BJP fell to earth.
If 2014 was the year that saw Prime Minister Narendra Modi’s popularity soar to an all-time high, events in 2015 underscored rising voter disillusionment. While Modi is still India’s most popular political leader, his government’s disappointing performance over the past year has impacted the electoral fortunes of his Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP). Eighteen months after the BJP’s spectacular victory, Modi and the BJP no longer appear invincible....... Two important reform bills – one to streamline India’s federal and state sales tax and the other to facilitate land acquisition – hang in limbo. The government has blamed opposition obstructionism in parliament for blocking the legislation. But it has only itself to blame. Not only did it subject the Congress-led United Progressive Alliance government (2004-2014) to similar obstructionism, it has also arrogantly attempted at pushing legislation down the opposition’s throat. ...... the party was routed in the Bihar assembly election........ Close on the heels of that crushing defeat was a setback in elections to local bodies in Gujarat. Here the BJP lost control over rural bodies and the iron-grip it once enjoyed over municipalities weakened. This setback was all the more painful for the party as Gujarat has been its impregnable fortress, with the party having won every election in the state since 2000. Importantly, this is Modi’s home state. ........ and another to provide a bank account for every household to end “financial untouchability.” ........ Economist Rajiv Kumar exulted over India finally having “a ‘real’ prime minister with his hand firmly on the steering wheel.” Modi’s “leading from the front and laying down the behavioral norms, targets and programs, has shored up sagging morale and ostensibly brought new purpose to the government machinery,” he said. ....... Modi’s decisive image stems from the fact that he makes decisions quickly and that is because he makes them on his own, a retired bureaucrat based in Delhi said, adding that Modi is the undisputed boss of the government and the BJP. All decisions related to policy and programs are made by him. Rarely are his ministers consulted or even kept in the loop. Meetings with ministers and BJP parliamentarians are monologues with Modi doing all the talking. Nobody disagrees with him. Or rather they don’t dare air their differences with him. ..... Critics like historian Ramachandra Guha have described the Modi government as “anti-intellectual,” having “absolute contempt for scholars, literature and the arts. It is not contribution to the field but proximity to the Sangh Parivar, a family of Hindu right-wing organizations of which the BJP is a part, that determines appointments to key posts. ....... Most alarming is the Modi government’s failure or rather reluctance to address mounting communal violence being unleashed by members of the Parivar. Churches have been attacked and violence against Muslims has increased. .......

Those inciting communal hatred are not fringe elements but governors, union ministers, chief ministers, parliamentarians – all belonging to the BJP or subscribing to its Hindutva ideology. Their hateful speeches are made in the chambers of the Lok Sabha, in front of television cameras, and at public rallies. Yet they have gone unchecked.

.... Modi’s grand plans for the economy. .... his party’s electoral debacles signal that the Indian voter cannot be taken for granted. The “rock-star” receptions that the Parivar organized for Modi during his visits abroad may have impressed his die-hard fans at home and his cheerleaders among the Indian diaspora, but for millions of voters, mere pledges aren’t enough. ..... Political commentator Shekhar Gupta says that he needs to get out of campaign mode and get down to “calmer, old-fashioned governance.”

रावण या वाल्मिकी: कौन बड़ा सनातनी शैतान?

रावण अपने युगका सबसे बड़ा ज्ञाता था, the most learned man alive. वेद पुराण उसको सब मालुम था, पन्ना पन्ना। इस बातका खुद रामको एहसास था। रावण के सामने वाल्मिकी कुछ नहीं। लेकिन दोनों थे सनातनी। एक ही गैंग के लोग। जैसे भारत के पास थल सेना है, वायु सेना, जल सेना। अलग अलग नहीं है।

सनातनी को आजतक घमंड है कि तुम हमसे जित ही नहीं सकते। पहले तो वो बर्बर आक्रमण कर देता है। जैसे बाघ हरिण को मार देता है। सभ्य लोग वैसा नहीं करते। लेकिन जंगल राज में सब चलता है। वो जो हजारों लाखों भिक्षुओ को किया। जमीन जायदाद के लिए तो नहीं किया। By definition भिक्षु के पास कुछ नहीं होता। तो फिर क्यों? भिक्षु का सबक अहिंसा। तो वो तो सभ्य भाषा हो गयी।

अपहरण। Kidnapping. रावण ने वही तो किया। रावण को इस बात का आश्चर्य हुवा कि सीता वन से सोने के लंका में आ गयी लेकिन खुश नहीं है। इसकी उसने कल्पना नहीं की थी। सीता का राम से स्वयंवर हुवा था। सीता ने खुद पसंद किया था। तो सनातनी worldview में औरत होती है property. गेहुँ का बोरा आप एक कमरे से दुसरे कमरे में ले जाते हो तो गेहुँ से पुछते हो क्या? जितने ऋषि मुनि हैं सबके सब पुरुष ही क्यों? सोंचने वाली बात है।

रावण के ये कल्पना में नहीं था कि राम लंका तक आ भी सकता है। दो भाई हैं। रावण के पास सेना है। युद्ध की कोई संभावना ही नहीं थी। उसने घमंड नहीं किया analysis की। युद्ध में हम हार नहीं सकते। सनातनी कहते।

लेकिन रावण तो हार गया। बुरी तरह। तो सनातनी कहता है, यद्ध में जित गए तो क्या। हम तुम्हें उसके बाद भी हरा सकते हैं। यानि कि हमारे जल सेना को हरा दिए तो क्या अभी थल सेना तो बाँकी है। तो वहाँ वाल्मिकी अपना रोल खेलता है।

वाल्मिकी रामायण अंत तक पढ़ो तो नहीं लगता है राम जिते हैं। सीता ने गलती की। लंका में रहती तो सुख से रहती। अंत तक पढ़ो तो राम लगने लगते हैं विलन। अमरीश पुरी। प्रेम चोपड़ा। शक्ति कपुर। तो वो सनातनी का कहना है, दावा है कि तुम हम से जित ही नहीं सकते। You simply can not win.

तो ये चैलेंज आज के रामभक्त को है। कि क्या ये सही है? कि सनातनी के साथ राम भगवान जित ही नहीं सकते? असंभव?

रावण या वाल्मिकी: कौन बड़ा सनातनी शैतान?

वेद पुराण उपनिषद --- ये सब हुवा Old Testament. ईसाई उस ओल्ड टेस्टामेंट को हटा के फेंक दिए हैं ऐसी बात नहीं है। बाइबल शुरू ही होता है ओल्ड टेस्टामेंट से। तो वेद पुराण उपनिषद को यादव या हरिजन क्लेम नहीं कर सकते या नहीं करना चाहिए ऐसी बात नहीं।

लेकिन शायद हरिजन मुक्ति इस बात में है कि हरिजन क्लेम करें हमारा अपना एक अलग धर्म है। जिस तरह बुद्ध धर्म है, इस्लाम है, उसी तरह हम हरिजनों का अपना एक अलग धर्म है। जिस तरह भारत ने ब्रिटेन को कहा हमारा अपना  देश है।

सनातनी से क्यों नहीं जिता जा सकता? जन और धन का रक्षा आधुनिक राज्य (modern state) की प्रथम जिम्मेवारी होती है। धर्म निरपेक्षता उस आधुनिक राज्य की नींव है। उस धर्म निरपेक्षता के छाते के अंदर सब आ जाते हैं, सब बराबर हैं: सनातनी, यादव, हरिजन, मुहम्मदन, बुद्धिस्ट, ईसाई, सिख।

दलित सबसे ज्यादा राम के इलाके में हैं। आखिर क्यों?

जिस राम के बीवी का अपहरण किया सनातनी ने, जिस राम को युद्ध में परास्त करना चाहा, जिस रामको विलन बना दिया उस सबके बावजुद ---- तो फिर राम मंदिर किसने तोडा? आपको क्या लगता है?

हरे राम हरे कृष्ण।




Wednesday, December 23, 2015

ये क्या हो रहा है? American Style Gridlock?

ऐसे देश १०% तरफ नहीं जाएगी। जिस देशमें इनकम टैक्स ठोस नहीं है वहाँ सरलीकृत सेल्स टैक्स का होना बहुत जरुरी है। Informal sector को भी समेट लेती है।



Indian Politics Thwart Prime Minister Narendra Modi’s Tax-Reform Plans For the second time this year, India concludes its Parliament session without legislating a nationwide sales tax
Partisan bickering in India’s Parliament has stalled an important piece of Prime Minister Narendra Modi’s economic agenda: a constitutional amendment that would create a simplified nationwide tax system to replace a commerce-stifling patchwork of state levies. .... The winter session of India’s legislature ended Wednesday without a vote on the measure in the upper house, where Mr. Modi’s Bharatiya Janata Party is in the minority, after lawmakers spent weeks trading jabs over graft allegations involving top politicians. .....

“The economy suffers while politics overrides everything.”

..... Facing opposition protests and fearing a rural backlash ahead of the Bihar vote, Mr. Modi in August retreated from legislative efforts to ease India’s strict land-acquisition law and make it easier for the government to get land for industry and infrastructure. ..... The gridlock is the result, in part, of a tit-for-tat strategy by the main opposition Congress party, whose final years in power were marred by protests led by the BJP.

When Congress was in government, the BJP blocked tax legislation similar to what it is now trying to pass.

..... With major plans stymied in Parliament, Mr. Modi has sought to breathe life into the economy through executive actions and other moves, including a plan to revive heavily-indebted power-distribution companies and ease foreign-investment limits in some industries. .... Congress accused Mr. Modi of a political vendetta after the party’s president, Sonia Gandhi, and her son, Rahul, were summoned before a magistrate to answer a complaint alleging cheating and criminal breach of trust. ..... Emerging from court Saturday, Mr. Gandhi said Mr. Modi had encouraged “false allegations” to frighten political rivals. The government said it wasn’t involved in the case. The complaint was filed by politician Subramanian Swamy in 2012. He later joined the BJP. .....

‘Parliament has become a forum less for debate and more to settle political scores.’

—M.R. Madhavan, president of think tank PRS Legislative Research ...... A post on Mr. Kejriwal’s official Twitter account called Mr. Modi a “coward and a psychopath.” The episode spiraled to include corruption allegations by Mr. Kejriwal against BJP Finance Minister Arun Jaitley, who in turn filed a defamation suit against Mr. Kejriwal. ......

These much publicized spats narrowed the space for a political compromise needed to break the logjam on economic policy-making.

..... On the tax amendment, Congress has said it doesn’t support some key provisions. It argues the tax rate should be capped at 18%—and that number must be included explicitly in the constitution—to prevent a creeping increase by future governments...... It also wants to do away with a proposed 1% additional levy designed to help manufacturing states....... Mr. Jaitley said the government is willing to find ways to address Congress’s second demand, but won’t legislate the tax rate so future governments have flexibility.
Five Things to Know About India’s Proposed Goods and Services Tax
India’s government is attempting to reform its messy web of sales taxes to make doing business across the country easier. ........ This complicated web snarls companies in red tape and slows down the transit of goods around the country because of border checks and other official inspections. ...... replace the patchwork of taxes with a single, nationwide sales levy, known as the goods-and-services tax, or GST.

Economists call the move an epochal lowering of commercial barriers.

..... a broad GST would deliver an immediate boost to output of 1% to 2% and lasting gains to productivity. .....

The bill needs the consent of two-thirds of Parliament and half of India’s 29 states.

Finance Minister Arun Jaitley wants the new system up and running by April 2016, saying it will “play a transformative role in the way our economy functions.” .......

States with large manufacturing bases have been wary of the GST: Receipts from the new tax would go to states where goods and services are consumed, not where they are produced.

........ The Modi government in December agreed to compensate states for lost revenue during the levy’s first five years, and to let them continue taxing alcohol and petroleum separately. Some experts say these and other possible exemptions would curb the GST’s effectiveness, however. ...... Jaitley told lawmakers on Wednesday that the standardized national rate for GST would be “much more diluted” than the 27% estimated

NDA GA Bipolarization: 30, 20, 50: What India Needs

The original version of General Electric's cir...
The original version of General Electric's circular logo and trademark. The trademark application was filed on July 24, 1899, and registered on September 18, 1900 (Photo credit: Wikipedia)
थर्ड फ्रंट तो था ही नहीं। २०१४ में। और राहुल भी उम्मेदवार नहीं थे। सोनिया ने सक्रिय पहल किया। तो बीजेपी को ३०% और काँग्रेस को मिला २०% ---- और दुर दुर तक कोसो तक एक सफ़ेद धुँवा है फैला हुवा जहाँ ५०% मत बिखरे पड़े हैं। वो थर्ड फ्रंट नहीं है। इसी लिए मैंने कहा देशकी राजनीती एक कॉमेट की तरह है। न unipolar, न bipolar, न multipolar. सफेद धुँवा फैला हुवा है। इससे देश को घाटा है। देश के के हित में है कि एक bipolarization हो जाए। लोकतंत्र को अर्थतंत्र को ये चाहिए।

CBI ने जो रेड किया केजरीवाल के ऑफिस में ये तो बहुत बड़ी बात हो गयी। खबर मिल रहा है कि मोदी ने नहीं करवाया। तो ये क्या हुवा? ये तो एक कु हो गया। इससे पहले जिस सक्स को सीबीआई ने तंग किया वो आज प्रधान मंत्री है। उससे पहले जभी लालु को तंग किए। कुछ समय बाद अंक गणित लालु के पक्ष में आ गयी थी। Waste कर दिया गया।

General Electric कंपनी में है १० साल में लीडरशिप चेंज होता है। तो एक प्रक्रिया है एक रश्म है। भारत में कहा जाता है CBI संसद के अधीन है, पाकिस्तान में ISI पैरेलल गवर्नमेंट के तरह है। कहीं भारत में भी वो समस्या तो नहीं। CBI में कोई सेल है जो data crunching करती है और निर्णय करती है अगला बन्दा ये है। बहुत ही गलत बात है। You can't second guess the people like that. Especially, you can't act upon it to try and influence the democratic process.

Grand Alliance की बात शुरू हुवी है बिहार से। वो बात बिहार से बाहर जाती है कि नहीं वो अभी देखना बाँकी है।

सारे देश के सभी चुनाव पाँच साल में एक बार किए जाने की बात हो रही है। वो गलत होगी। लेकिन पाँच साल में दो बार हो तो शायद सही है। केंद्र, राज्य और स्थानीय। ढाई साल में एक ऐतवार को। बुथ पर जाना है।



Ramayana: Rewriting History

English: Deities of Sri Sri Sita-Rama, Lakshma...
English: Deities of Sri Sri Sita-Rama, Lakshmana, Hanuman at Bhaktivedanta Manor temple, in Watford, England. (Photo credit: Wikipedia)
Valmiki was a Sanatani. He made Ram look bad. Ram's story is unique. नहीं तो जीजस को देखो अकेले पोल पर लटका हुवा है। ईसाइ धर्म में या यहुदी में है की ईश्वर ने पुरुष बनाया और पुरुष ने अपने हड्डी से औरत। तो वहां तो महिला को बराबरी मिलने से रहा। विश्व के प्रमुख धर्मो में सिर्फ राम सीता की कहानी है जहाँ महिला पुरुष बराबर हैं। बल्कि सीता एक स्तर ऊपर। राम दशरथ का पुत्र सीता धरती की पुत्री। राम ने धनुष नहीं उठाया। सीता ने शिव से अनुनय किया कि मैं चाहती हुँ यही धनुष उठाए। राम सीता पर आधारित धर्म में महिला को बराबरी मिलेगी, मिलनी चाहिए। यानि की रामभक्त को दलित बनाना सिर्फ हरिजन नहीं महिला पर भी वार है। सनातनी महिला को जगह नहीं देते। बिलकुल नहीं।

तुलसीदास रामभक्त था। हरिजन। दलित। रामभक्त ने राम को हीरो के रूप में प्रस्तुत किया। वाल्मिकी के संतति आज के नेपाल के विलन हैं। कुछ ही रोज पहले जानकी मंदिर के भितर बुट पहन के घुस गए। एक हिन्दु वो काम कर ही नहीं सकता।

रामभक्त को दलित बना दिया। तो फिर राम मंदिर किसने तोडा? सोंचने वाली बात है।

राम तो बाद में आए। वानर सेना बाद में आई। सीता ने लंका में अपनी रक्षा खुद की। रावण शायद सनातनी शैतान था। कहा भी गया है, he was the most learned man alive. यानि की उस युगका टॉप सनातनी। शैतान। वेद पुराण का ज्ञाता। That makes the Ramayana a feminist story. कि उससे पहले औरत को प्रॉपर्टी की तरह उठा लिया जाता था।

मंदिर तोडा सनातनी ने दोष दे रहे हैं मुसलमान को। सनातनी के बाद कृष्ण के बाद राम के बाद बुद्ध के बाद जीजस  मुहम्मद। सनातनी को कृष्ण से वैर, राम से वैर, बुद्ध से वैर, जीजस से वैर तो फिर मुसलमान से क्यों नहीं होगा वैर? ये डिवाइड and रूल है। यादव और मुसलमान इतने आसानी से मिल जाते हैं। राम मंदिर का तथ्य सामने आया तो यादव, हरिजन और मुसलमान एक जगह आ जायेंगे। सनातनी ये नहीं चाहता।

रावण भी सनातनी, वाल्मीकि भी। अंग्रेज थोड़े कहते हैं हमने कोलोनाइज़ किया। वो कहते हैं हम ने तुम पर उपकार किया। कलम कौन चला रहा है उससे बहुत फर्क पड़ता है।

Why did Tulsidas make changes while rewriting Valmiki's 'Ramayana' as 'Shri Ramcharitmanas'?
Technically speaking, the Ramcharitamanas, or the Kambaramayanam, are all just regional remakes of the original, Valmiki's Ramayana. These might have minor tweaks here and there, but the crux is the same, the story is the same. ..... this is the reason stories like Ramayana when written in various regional languages by Tulsidas, Kamban, Krittivasan, are adapted so as to appeal to the people from the respective regions .... For instance,

in the Ramcharitamanas, there is no mention of Lava Kusa in the Uttara Kanda. When Rama asks Sita to go to the forest, to put to an end the gossip of his subjects, Tulasidas who views Sita as more than a mother and is unable to put her through the tortures of the forest in his version, so he makes Sita call for her Mother, the Earth right away, and Rama, unable to live away from Sita, leaves his mortal body right there.

........ a major deviation from the Valmiki's Ramayana ...... there is this beautiful romanticizing of the Rama-Sita swayamvara in the Kamba Ramayana, where Kamban famously says "Annan-um nokkinaar, aval-um nokkinaal." (Older brother proceeded, she followed suit! (with legs, eyes, multiple meanings) It's a beautiful one-line love-story of Rama-Sita (Kamban always referred to Rama as an older brother in his version), before the actual swayamvara, wherein it talks about how Sita following her glimpse of Rama, prays to Shiva to get Rama to break the Shivdhanush. Small additions like this to the storyline, makes it more beautiful to read, and this is something that is definitely encouraged in literature.
Difference between original ramayan and the ramayan you know
Full text of "Difference between original ramayan and the ramayana you know"
What is difference between tulsidas and valmiki ramayana?
10 Differences Between Ramayana and Ramcharitmanas
Valmiki Ramayana vs. Tulsidas' Ramayana vs. Serials


यादव और कृष्ण, हरिजन और राम: हरे राम हरे कृष्ण



जब हरे राम हरे कृष्ण वाले किसी गोरा को कन्वर्ट करते हैं तो नहीं कहते अब तुम ब्राह्मण हुवे, या वैश्य। कास्ट की बात ही नहीं होती। हिन्दु भी नहीं कहते। Krishna Consciousness.

यादव कृष्ण के संतति। हरिजन राम के भक्त। यादव का कोइ कास्ट नहीं। हरिजन का भी कोइ कास्ट नहीं। उन पर उपर से थोपा गया है। जिस तरह भारत पर विक्टोरिया ने थोप दिया। सनातनी ने हरिजन को दलित बना दिया। Colonized, Oppressed.

तो इस Oppression को ख़त्म करना होगा।

हरे राम हरे कृष्ण एक राजनीतिक कोएलिशन का भी नाम हो सकता है। लेकिन उसके बाद काम ठोस होना चाहिए। सिर्फ दलित नेता या पार्टी को वोट दे के ये Oppression खत्म नहीं होगा। उसके लिए lawmaking, law enforcement, और पाँच स पर जाना होगा। कोइ किसी को मंदिर जाने से रोकता है तो वो जुर्म नहीं है तो जुर्म बनाओ।

सनातनी अपना standalone identity बनाओ और रहो। ब्रिटेन भी एक टापु है।

कास्ट सिस्टम से बड़ा डिवाइड एंड रुल का हथियार विश्व इतिहास में दुसरा कोई बनाया ही नहीं गया। सनातनी सुरज अंग्रेज दीपक।

शायद दलित को ये कहना होगा हम हिन्दु नहीं हरिजन हैं। हमारा अलग धर्म है। हम रामभक्त हैं।


Tuesday, December 22, 2015

The Pendulum Of Democracy, Modi, And India

I feel like people are making too much out of the Bihar election. Chief Minister ka chunav tha, and the best candidate won. The only candidate won. Noone else was even running. The Bihari voter knows the difference between a national election and a state election. The media doesn't know, doesn't care.

In a democracy, the people want to feel like they are boss. And so they balance it out. US mein hi dekh lo, jis party ko White House dete hain, Congress usko nahin dete. If you have the White House, chances are you will not hold the majority of the state houses. It is because the voters are smart. They wish to balance it out.

Precisely because Modi got such a decisive mandate in 2014, he should lose all state elections to 2019. That would not mean he is not performing. I think he has been doing great work. That just means the voters are smart. They want to keep the power and balance it out.

Each state has its own dynamic. One can only hope the best candidate for Chief Minister wins. That is what is good for the country. And the 2014 mandate is supposed to last for five years.

If the Opposition is to keep the Upper House, the only choice is to elevate the debate and discussion in both houses and seek creative solutions and middle grounds. Have robust debates that go beyond posturing and position taking. Debate ke baad fusion karo.

What if the BJP were to lose Uttar Pradesh in 2017? What if Akhilesh wins another term? As long as Modi can give India a robust growth rate, he should do just fine for 2019. But that's a long way away.



Kejriwal And Modi: Not On The Same Plank

I was unhappy when Kejriwal tweeted his attack on Modi calling him names. It was not only not the language of a mature democracy, it also sounded inaccurate. He made it sound like Modi had personally directed the raid. I have not read up on the raid, it's not worth my time. If you feel the CBI has wronged you, go get a lawyer. Manmohan Singh did after he got out of office and was subjected to some kind of inquiry. He asked the court to dismiss it, and the court did. Not that Kejriwal is Manmohan Singh.

Such a comment mars India's image that Modi has worked so hard to cultivate ever since he got into office. He had a purpose. India has beat both China and the United States on FDI this year. Is that something, or is that something? Itna bejod kaam ho raha hai. Thos kaam ho raha hai. 

Kejriwal likes to imagine there is some kind of a personality clash going on between Modi and him: not true. There is no evidence. Yaar, size to dekho. Delhi ka size kya hai?

Kejriwal has a mandate. The mandate is to govern. To govern karo. Kaam karo. Apna political height badhane ke prayas mein desh ke PM ko gaali mat bolo.

Agar Modi mein rajnitik sujhbujh hai to wo aisa raid nahin karvayenge. That is yet another reason to believe he was not personally behind it. Because, it doesn't make any political sense. Bahut ghaate ki baat hai. 

Within minutes of the CBI raid on the Delhi secretariat on 15 December, top government functionaries — those sitting in North Block and South Block — spoke with one another to find out whether the raid had the prior approval of any of them. None of them had any inkling....... Prime Minister Narendra Modi displayed ignorance while Home Minister Rajnath Singh was not in the loop either. The Ministry of Home Affairs asked CBI director Anil Sinha and he justified the raids on procedural and legal grounds.......The collateral damage from the raids was colossal in political terms........ The carefully cultivated image of Modi as a leader who believes in the consensual approach lay shattered as the Opposition attacked his government for being “vindictive” against rivals. As expected, Delhi Chief Minister Arvind Kejriwal used this opportunity to launch one of the worst vituperative attacks on the prime minister and subsequently on Finance Minister Arun Jaitley.


DDCA row: Narendra Modi gets furious when he hears my name, says Arvind Kejriwal
During the session, Kejriwal accused the PM of “unleashing” the CBI on the government and said the recent raid on his principal secretary’s office was an “attack on the federal structure of democracy”.
The PM ordered this raid to protect Jaitley,” alleged Kejriwal ..... Questioning the independence of the CBI as an investigative body, Kejriwal said, “The day CBI becomes independent, it will send a notice to Shivraj Chouhan. It will send a notice to Modi to ask him about the money he got for his coat. Sushma and Vasundhara Raje will get notices, not Rajendra Kumar…” ...... Defending Kumar, Kejriwal said, “Hamare afsar ke locker khali mile aur 12 daaru ki bottles mili. Is world ki sabse badi democracy ke PM raid karwaye aur 12 bottles liquor mile to sharm ki baat hai…(The head of the world’s biggest democracy ordered a raid and only found 12 liquor bottles. This is shameful).” ..... Kejriwal also took a dig at the PM’s foreign trips. “He has nothing to do with the country. He has a big plane with all facilities and stays in five-star hotels… Everything runs smoothly when he is out of the country. The day he returns, the CBI is unleashed on the opposition…,” he said. ..... He also welcomed the defamation case filed by Jaitley against him and his partymen. “We will go to Patiala House on February 5… We will give our explanation and the trial will begin. Jaitley will stand in the witness box and our advocate will cross-examine him. This will go on for a year. They have harmed themselves,” said Kejriwal. ..... The DDCA… deals with sports which is under us,” said Kejriwal.
Target 2019: Kejriwal’s anti-Modi moves are rooted in his ambition
the Delhi chief minister has realised that the space for an anti-establishment leader has started growing again in India. And he is making fast and furious moves to occupy the slot before anyone else becomes the pivot of the anti-BJP politics that could become a rewarding pursuit by 2019. ..... The economy has come to a standstill. Growth forecasts have become sobre and sombre: the latest estimate has been revised downwards to 7-7.5 percent from the previous 8.1-8.5 percent. Reforms are stuck, legislative bills are caught in politics of hostility, jobs are not rising, prices — not the ones reflected on indices of data crunchers but on grocery lists of real people — are going through the roof. There is a general atmosphere of hostility and distrust. Promises of achche din have become a painful memory ..... within a year, unless something dramatic happens, a string of electoral results could change the mood on the ground dramatically. .... The party never had a realistic chance in Tamil Nadu and Kerala, where elections are due next .... In Punjab, the Akali Dal-BJP alliance is facing stiff challenge after ten years of incumbency. ....... the ruling alliance is staring at a drubbing in Punjab that could be more severe than the beating in Delhi. ..... Where is the party winning next? Perhaps Assam, but every other state election appears a tough challenge. ..... For the past few days, Kejriwal has been relentlessly attacking the PM and his finance minister with the hope of becoming the leading anti-Modi voice in the country. By punching well above his weight, just like Modi did as chief minister of Gujarat, he is hoping to become the symbol of anti-establishment by the time the next election is around. ...... Kejriwal can progress in politics only if he wins Punjab, or at least puts up a strong show. It doesn't look easy. ..... In Punjab, Kejriwal is facing the challenge of warding off the might of former chief minister and Congress leader Captain Amarinder Singh. The mood on the ground suggests voters are torn between AAP and a resurgent Congress under Singh. Both have equal chances of replacing the SAD-BJP government. ..... Aware of the challenge and the opportunity, Kejriwal is planning to camp in Punjab for almost six months before the elections, leaving Delhi to his deputy Manish Sisodia. If he wins Punjab, demolishes the Badals and pins down Singh, Kejriwal will immediately fancy himself as a challenger to Modi...... Kejriwal's rise, if it happens, won't be a tragic development for the BJP. It will immediately bring his ambition into conflict with that of Rahul Gandhi, Mulayam Singh,

Nitish Kumar — the current frontrunner —

and other regional aspirants, immediately putting under strain the current index of opposition unity, the biggest threat to Modi after anti-incumbency......

Does this explain the BJP's current eagerness to provoke Kejriwal?

Whenever My Name Is Taken, PM Modi's Blood Boils: Arvind Kejriwal
Speaking at the Delhi assembly as his battle with the Centre reaches a new low, Mr Kejriwal added, "BJP leaders have told me in private, whenever my name is taken, (PM Narendra) Modi's blood boils." ..... Calling the raids a "flop", Mr Kejriwal today said the CBI questioned his principal secretary Rajender Kumar for over 50 hours after 14-hour long raids. "But they have found nothing... The raid was aimed only at helping Arun Jaitley," he said. "What the PM did is quite shameful," he said. ..... Taking the charges head-on, Mr Kejriwal said, "What remains to be seen is that whether the inquiry commission will be annulled by the L-G, who Jaitley says is 'our man'... I appeal to Jaitleyji to cooperate with the inquiry commission."


For Putin Assad Is Himself

There is some ego business going on, sure. Like he said recently to the US, you take Iraq, leave Syria to me. It is important to him that he projects to his people that they are on par with the US. The Cold War is over, but the status is on. If he can demonstrate rivalry of any kind, that is proof.

Geopolitics is a very real thing. It is concrete. Just like gravity is a property of matter, landmass oozes something. It is almost independent of the people who inhabit that landmass, only we wouldn’t know one way or the other if there were no people. Does Antarctica ooze geopolitics? Go find out. I am staying put. Maybe it is a combination. The landmass plus the people on it ooze something. So it’s not just the headcount, it’s that and the size of the landmass. Like force is mass times acceleration.

So it is erroneous to ask Russia, what is your population? What is your GDP? Do you have nukes? Because it is not about any of that, it is about the landmass. And that geopolitical pull has stayed consistent while the territory has seen major political changes. Tectonic, some would say. Lenin’s works have been circulated more than everything except the Bible.

The people, and the GDP and the nukes in one basket multiplied by the landmass: that is Russia’s geopolitical pull.

So, I guess, the message is, Syria chaos is ISIS. But Russia chaos is not ISIS, it is nukes. Do you want that on your hands? I don’t know if Putin is being threatening or prophetic. But to Putin Assad is himself. He is saying, don’t challenge my power inside Russia. Let me be.

This makes for a tricky situation. Assad bombed Damascus like the Bushes bombed Baghdad. Assad is not a ruler, he is an occupying force. The Bushes got out of Iraq. When will Assad get out? That is a valid question.

A lot of people miss out on the Russia-India friendship. It exists. And it is at the people level. Russians know and worship Bollywood figures like non Indian Americans might not be aware of, for example. In India Putin is not this nuke-breathing monster. He is a friend who might have stepped on a landmine or two. There is some armor damage. Indians might have some qualms about the people in Pakistan, or the people in China, but with Russia it’s all clear. No issues, no blemishes.

I don’t know Ukraine. But if ethnic Russians have grievances in countries like Ukraine, I can totally relate to that. Like, deeply, personally. Look at what is going on in Nepal right about now. Only India will not engage in military adventures. Putin is more impulsive. When you constrain democracy like he has, you can afford to. Modi has a robust opposition and media. You can argue Indian origin minorities have been wronged in many countries: Sri Lanka, Burma, not to mention the Hindus in Pakistan and Bangladesh. And it’s not just Indians. When there are ethnic riots in places like Indonesia, ethnic Chinese get targeted. Why did Lee Kuan Yew break away from Malaysia? He was an ethnic Chinese who refused to accept second class status in a united Malaysia. Good for him. He went on to do the work and inspire Deng Xiaoping. This seems to be a big country problem. For China, for India, for Russia. Americans don’t understand because white guys don’t face that problem in Mexico. But give Donald Trump enough news cycles, and you never know.

Democracy is a force on its own. It is not dependent on a superpower push. It will work its way through ultimately, everywhere, that is my belief. For instance, the recent Saudi elections where women both voted and were elected, in however small a place, was news to me. I was thrown off balance. I did not see it coming. The Saudis be like, welcome Hillary.

But Russia is nowhere close to Syria. Syria is utter chaos. It went off my personal radar a long time ago. The magnitude of it all is so, I mean. If anything, Russia is law and order. Maybe too much so.

The Chinese have this thing called non-interference. On Tibet they say “splittism.” On the world they say non-interference. As in, we are too busy taking care of our own. We have too many poor people. It will be two more decades before we can afford to get our head above the water. For example in a small country like Nepal, they deal with whoever is in power. While the Nepali Maoists combusted the Nepali countryside, the Chinese dealt with the ruling king, exclusively. When the Maoists came to power, the Maoist premier got a front row seat at the Chinese Olympics. Non-interference. We will deal with whoever is in power. Americans are more nosy. It is half about spreading democracy, half about selling guns. It is good for business. “Strong on defense” sells better than anything else Donald has said. It is a well oiled machine. It has been put into the political culture, deeply embedded. And it is not just bad manners. Before there is rule of law between nations, there will be room for a force or two or three. Even after there is rule of law, the law will have to be enforced. Liberty seems to have a price. Life and property need protection. That makes room for more amorphous things like free speech and creativity and the arts and tech startups. And America has this thing where it necessarily has to be private companies manufacturing and supplying arms. It is a good arrangement. That church state separation is very respectful of private enterprise.

While I watch elections, from one country to another, like astrophysicists watch the stars. India is the most interesting. There is always yet another major election just round the corner. Bihar is over, Uttar Pradesh is on. And then there is the behemoth. I mean, who runs for office for a year? Two years? Every place else, it is a month. They also like to spend time actually governing. Give it to the Americans. They never stop running. It is one grand conversation. It is galactic. Like it or not, Trump is a star. Trump was doing reality TV before he figured out he was missing out on the real reality TV. Trump 2016. Putin should let Zhirinovsky have some of the limelight. I guess Russia is not that stretched of a democracy. Instead Putin does a three hour “press conference” where he is sitting on stage and 1500 journalists are down there in the auditorium. The guy does both elections and press conferences. How bad can he be?



My political journey identical to that of President Vladimir Putin: PM Narendra Modi

Monday, December 21, 2015

Dial 100: The Second Time Akhilesh Has Impressed Me

मैं भारत में कभी रहा नहीं हुँ। हो आया हुँ बहुतो बार। वो भी बहुत पहले। लेकिन रहा नहीं हुँ। तो क्या है कि कितनी बाते मालुम नहीं होती। जैसे कि ये इमरजेंसी नंबर वाली बात। बिहार में नहीं है, लेकिन बड़े शहरों में, कुछ शहरों में होंगे शायद। मैं assume करता था। इंडिया हेरिटेज है।

पहली बार अखिलेश ने मेरे को इम्प्रेस किया जब आगरा दिल्ली सड़क के लिए land acquisition किया। ये दुसरी बार है। मैं बहुत इम्प्रेस हो गया। He is definitely finding his groove.

UP CM Akhilesh Yadav lays foundation of 'Dial-100', says it will set an example for country
"The scheme will enable the police to reach the scene of incident within 20 minutes in the rural area and the response time in urban areas will be 10 minutes in two-wheelers and 15 minutes in four-wheelers," Yadav said.
Building dial 100 from scratch: For better law and order, Akhilesh ‘improves’ emergency services
The call centre will employ 400 people, and the building will have an auditorium with a capacity to hold 500 people and an amphitheatre for about 2000 people.
Chief Minister Akhilesh Yadav Saturday laid the foundation stone of the building for the proposed state-level Dial 100 emergency service’s central master coordination centre in Lucknow. ..... The service, Police Emergency Management Scheme, will be developed at the cost of Rs 2325.33 crore. ..... the scheme was designed after studying similar facilities in other states like Delhi and Gujarat, and countries like Singapore and United States. ..... the government will deploy 2500 Bolero cars in rural areas and 700 Innova cars in urban areas, along with 1600 two-wheelers, as a part of the service to handle cases of emergency.