Opposition Ki Jaroorat

Opposition Ki Jaroorat

Bharat ke rajniti ko do cheej ki sakht jarrorat hai. Ek ki paanch sal mein sirf do deen chunav ho. Yani national, state aur local election sirf us do deen honge. Ravivar ko, chhutti ke din. Taki log booth par asani se jaa sake.

Ek wo, aur dusra desh ke rajniti ka bi-polarization. Mera Modi se man ub gaya wo main nahin kah raha. Actually, I am more excited about Modi now than I was about a year ago. Ek sal pahle to sirf promise tha, kam to kuchh dikha nahin tha. Ab to maine kaam bhi dekh liya. Bahut thos kam kar rahe hain. Lekin Modi ka bhavishy nirnay karne wala main kaun hota? Modi ko banaya bharat ki janata ne. Modi ko tikayega bharat ki janata. Main to us equation mein hun nahin.

Lekin desh ke rajniti ko polarization chahiye. Ek hai National Democratic Alliance. Aur us mein jarrorat se jyada alliance partner hain wasi baat nahin. Balki jitne chahiye satta mein tike rahne ke liye, usse kahin kam hain. Dusra pole hai Grand Alliance. Wo abhi Bihar mein shuru huwa hai. Usko national banana desh ke liye bahut jaroori hai.

Bijli nikalne ke liye koyala jab jalate ho, to kitne heat ka bijli banta hai aur kitna heat exhaust ke raste jaa ke waste ho jata hai? Percentage kya hai? Bigya jara enlighten karo. To wahi baat hai. 2014 ke chunav mein 30% BJP ko mat mila. Uske adhar pe akele usne bahumat le aaya. 20% Congress ko. Lekin uske adhar pe wo Opposition ka jagah bhi nahin bana payi. Yani ki wo exhaust mein chala gaya vote. Aur banki 50% to total waste. Yani ki abhi Bharat ke loktantr naam ka jo diesel engine hai, uska efficiency hai sirf 30%. Tees percent se bijli nikal raha hai, banki 70% waste mein jaa rahi hai.

Bipolarization ho jati hai, to NDA ka bhi size shayad badhega. To NDA aur GA. Tab efficiency almost 100% par pahunch jayegi. Yani ki 55% la ke koi sarkar banayega. Aur 45% ka opposition.

Lekin usko shayad 100% nahin kaha ja sakta. Vote kitne ne diye? 60% ne. To abhi efficiency 30% nahin hai, abhi 15% par hai. Bipolarization ke baad wo pahunch jayega 60% par. Yani ki 60% heat ka bijli niklega, banki gaya exhaust pipe se bahar.

To bipolarization BJP aur Modi ke liye bhi achhi baat hogi. A superior democracy will spring forth a superior economy. Aur Modi ka total focus hai economy.

Modi ka total focus hai economy. Wo unka strength bhi hai aur weakness bhi. Social issues par wo nadarad rahte hain. Bharat mein BJP aur America mein Republican Party kuchh milte julte hain. Pratyek desh mein ek political spectrum hota hai, extreme left se extreme right tak. Adhikansh log center mein hote hain. Sarkare adhiakansh waise log banate hain jinka bichar centrist ho. To Modi khud centrist hain. Lekin BJP ka jo tent hai, usmein center se le ke right se le ke far right se le ke kucch extreme right tatwa bhi hain. Modi khud na far right hain, na extreme right. Agar hote to main pasand nahin karta. Aur main bade gaur se dekh raha hoon. Hindu hone ka pride hai, aur hona bhi chahiye. Lekin auro ke prati ghrina nahin hai dil mein. Kamsekam mere direct observation mein abhi tak mere ko ek bhi waisa evidence nahin mila.

Lekin tent bada hai. Ek kah sakte ho aadmi kamjor hai. Apne hi tent ke logon ko thikane nahin laga sakta. Dusra perspective ye ho sakta hai ki ye aadmi kamjor nahin hai ki ye ek aise desh ka Pradhan Mantri hai jo duniya ka sabse bada loktantr hai. Bharat: loktantr ki janani bhumi hai. Loktantr British ne upahar nahin diya. Duniya ka pahla ganatantr Buddha ne sthapit kiya. Sanatani shaitano ne ujad ke fek diya, wo alag baat hai. Bandar. Monkey.

To loktantr mein kya hota hai ki jo galat bolta hai usko bhi bolne ka adhikar hota hai. Free speech. To ye to achhi baat hai ki desh ka pradhan mantri kisi ki bolti band nahin kar sakta. That is what we want.

To wahan par kami dikhi Opposition ki. Ki log jab galat bolte hain, to uske biruddh aap kyon nahin bolte? Wo to PM ka nahin Opposition ka kaam hai. Laloo aur Nitish ka kaam hai. National economy par top level ka kaam ho raha hai. Modi is a gift to India. Par social issues par space hai Opposition ke liye. BJP ke tent ke under aise log hain jinko democratic counter karne ki jaroorat hai. Kabhi love jihad, to kabhi ghar wapasi. Hote hote dadri. To us space mein Grand Alliance nirnayak role khel sakti hai.

Yani ki agar desh mein intolerance badha hai, jaisa ki kaha jata hai, to uski jimmedari Opposition ko leni padegi. Agar aap is tarah bikhre na hote to far right ke logon ki himmat patli ho jati. To aap is tarah jo bikhre pade hain, usse desh mein far right ko jaroorat se jyada jagah mil raha hai. The opposition is responsible.

Speech aur peaceful political action ----- loktantr mein ye allow hai. Shantipurvak aap sangathit ho sakte hain. Shantipurvak aap rajnitik karyakram kar sakte ho. Wo adhikar far right ko bhi hai, far left ko bhi, center left ko bhi.

Violence to na social issue hai, na political issue hai. Violence is and should be illegal, and the law should be strictly enforced. Murder ke biruddh to law hai. Hate crime ke biruddh law hai ki nahin? Nahin hai to banao. Law enforcement ko sirf din dahade murder hi nahin, domestic violence, caste violence, aur religious riots ko bhi tackle karna hoga. Us kabil banaya jana chahiye. Kaun kisko mar raha hai hame us se matlab nahin. Ham mardhar hone nahin denge. Hame sirf usse matlab hai. Law enforcement ka wo attitude hona chahiye. A riots-free India is possible. Tsunami/typhoon ke liye jis tarah early warning system hota hai, usi tarah desh bhar mein riots ke liye early warning system hone chahiye. Ki haan, yahan lag raha hai sthiti bigar ke riot ke taraf chali jayegi, to baat wahan tak pahunchne se pahle force ko wahan par pahunch jana hai. Jo karna hai so karna hai.

Law and order to first priority hai. Nitish ko log credit de dete hain. Ye kiya, wo kiya, Bihar mein bikas kiya. Are, unhone to sirf law and order take care kiya. Bikas to apne aap ho gayi. Pahle wo Sushasan Babu bane uske baad hi Bikashpurush banne ka mauka mila.

To desh bhar mein violence ko secular kism se tackle karna hai. Yani ki domestic violence ho ya caste violence ho ya phir religious violence: zero tolerance. Jaan aur dhan ki suraksha adhunik rajya (modern state) ka pratham aur sabse pramukh jimmewari hai. To wo capacity building ek pramukh rajnitik mudda hai. National, state aur local sab level par.

Grand Alliance ko ek national rup dena hoga. Aur social issues par bahut jyada space hai jo cover kiya ja sakta hai. Jaise ki Dalit liberation, wo to Mayawati ko hi karna hoga. Kaun karega? Bharat ka liberation to Gandhi aur Nehru aur Patel ko hi karna pada ki nahin? Ki koi Germany ya France se aa ke kar diya?

Ek democratic structure bana do to koi lafda nahin hota ki kaun neta banega, kya hoga. Vote kar do. Ho gaya nirnay.

Dalit liberation ka rasta Bharat liberation se fark nahin hai. Ki hum hain Harijan. Hamara naam Dalit nahin. Wo hamara abhi ka political status hai jise hum khatm karenge. Hamara apna ek alag dharm hai. Hum Rambhakt hain. Jis tarah Old Testament sirf Yahudi ka nahin Isai ka bhi, usi tarah Ved Puran Upanishad hamara bhi, lekin hamara pramukh granth hai Tulsidas ka Ramayana. Ramcharitmanas. Jis tarah Muslman ka apna alag dharm, Buddhist ka apna alag dharm, usi tarah Harijan ka bhi apna alag dharm. Ravana bhi Sanatani Shaitan, Valmiki bhi Sanatani Shaitan. Mandir toda Sanatani Shaitan ne, dosh de rahe Musalman ko. Harijan Muslim ko divide and rule.

Laoo, ya Nitish, ya Akhilesh, ya Mulayam, ya Modi koi aa ke liberate karne wala nahin. Liberation ko khud ka kaam hota hai.

2016: The Year For Barack Obama's Revolution From The Top

2016: The Year For Barack Obama's Revolution From The Top



Barack Obama’s autobiography Dreams From My Father is full of little references to what Nelson Mandela in his autobiography called “a thousand little indignities.” But one was talking mostly about America, the other about apartheid South Africa. Can one black man’s ascension to the top make up for racist snarls at the highest levels of government like in the US Senate?

It is time we faced the fact the United Nations is not a world government. It is time to call a spade a spade. It is time to see this institution designed by the World War II victors no longer works. This is not a world government by the far stretches of the imagination. Often when we talk of civil rights movements, we think in terms of ordinary people marching out in the streets. But now is the time for a civil rights movement in which the heads of state march.

What we have is essentially apartheid. The leading country remains fundamentally racist, nowhere more evident than in the country’s criminal justice system. There is no world government. There is a need for one. The thorniest global problems, the loftiest trade deals are worked on outside the UN framework.

America itself needs to be reimagined if it is to fulfill its original mission of a total spread of democracy. It needs to become a country where African immigrants are as at home as European immigrants. White is black is white.

In a democracy you get to vote because you are a human being, not because you are literate or rich. But in the community of nations, there are countries that are rich and have guns, and most have neither. The entire continent of Africa stands disenfranchised. This landmass that is the most central of all, from where we all originated, is still in the clutches of a contemporary incarnation of colonization, slavery and apartheid. We don’t have a name for it yet, but the affliction is very real. Its poverty and disease stem from that disempowerment, not the other way round. And so, any voice that seeks to address its poverty and disease without taking stock of its disenfranchisement is shedding crocodile tears.

What is Barack Obama going to do? Leave the White House and do paid speeches? Write books? Launch a foundation? Raise money for AIDS? Share a stage or two with Bono and George Clooney? The guy is still young. This guy who has cleared up half century old cobwebs every year he has been in office is best suited to lead this revolution from the top. And this is not a cry for Africa, although Africa could use some empowerment. This is a cry for the world. Right now we are a species looking down a sinkhole of uncontrolled weather patterns that just might wipe out life and civilization as we know it. We still have immense poverty and disease that Bill Gates says “only a world government can solve,” and Gates is a guy who has thrown the kitchen sink at the problem, one of the leading entrepreneurs of the era in whose wake many billionaires have given money to fight basic poverty. We face security threats that no one government can solve. Globalization continues to move at breakneck speeds speeding up as the Internet takes deeper roots everywhere, but we have not done the task of institution building that that globalization requires.

Let’s open our eyes and take a look at the elephant in the room. Yes, what we need is a world government, and there is no person better than Barack Obama to take the lead on it. We are lucky we have a George Washington precisely when we need one. And lucky us that the guy is almost done with his current job where he has been stellar every year. Heads of state across the world should join in this chorus and shape this revolution from the top. Lucky us that our thorniest global problems have solutions in political concepts we have already designed, like one person one vote taken to its logical, global conclusion.

There is always inertia. Every monumental political change that in hindsight looks so obviously positive has faced inertia. And this likely will be no different. But the blueprint has to be made, and it has to be presented to ordinary peoples on all continents, so a groundswell of support can build around it.

We want to live in a world where human beings can feel equal everywhere. We want to live in a world with abundant clean energy. We want to live in a world with abundant water, and food and green space. We want clean air. We want to create the industries of tomorrow. We seek unprecedented rises in productivity, as well equitable distribution. We want people to be happy.

It is time the heads of state across the world came together and created the world’s first world government in the leadership of Barack Obama. In his birth as well as personality and outlook, he bridges the world. In his person the world has a chance to come together to reach new heights. This century can not only be the best ever, it can also be one where we have gone past our existential worries, where we have created a truly global civilization, one grand village where everyone can feel a sense of belonging everywhere, where people can take pride in their heritage and claim the common future at the same time, without hassle.

This is in essence a political struggle, where all you start with is a voice. Ordinary people have done it many times before. Heads of state can do it this one time.

It is still about Hope. It is still about Change.

We need a world government because it is time we established rule of law between nations. That is the civilized way.



राजेंद्र महतो लाई ICU पुर्याउने सरकार राजीनामा दे, काठमाण्डु छोड़, देश छोड़, ये धरती हमारी, ये मुल्क हमारा
E for Education, E for Entrepreneurship, E for Energy
Barack Obama: George Washington
आर्थिक क्रांतिका पाँच पाण्डव: सुशासन, शिक्षा, स्वास्थ्य, संरचना, (उद्योगव्यापार) सुलभता
Barack Obama Is Biologically Superior
An Open Letter To Barack Obama

बुश का बघदाद (२)

बुश का बघदाद

अमरिका पर बिन लादेन ने बाद में हमला किया। उससे पहले हमला बोला बुश ने। Record Surplus को Record Deficit बना दिया। इतना बड़ा टैक्स कट किया कि देश सीधे मुह के बल जा के गिर पड़ी।

जनता मुर्ख। उसने वैसा ही मैंडेट माँगा था। जनता ने दे दिया। अमेरिका के गरीब जनता को social issues पर इस तरह डिवाइड कर दिए हैं ये नियमित अपने अहित में वोट देते रहते हैं।

९/११ हुवा। तो अफ़ग़ानिस्तान पर वार करो। कि पर्ल हार्बर पर अटैक किया जापान ने और तुम ने अटैक कर दिया इंडोनेशिया? Looking Tokyo Going London? अभी भी ४०% अमेरिकी कहते हैं ९/११ किया सद्दाम ने। ४०% वो वही हैं जो नक़्शे पर प्रशांत महासागर नहीं ढूँढ सकते। २०-३०% अमरीकी कहते हैं ओबामा मुसलमान है।

कितने लोग मरे वो भी हिसाब करो लेकिन ओ अलग करो। इस ब्लॉग पोस्ट में सिर्फ पैसा की बात करते हैं। एक से १० लाख के बीच लोग मरे सब मिला के। युद्ध के कारण जो सिविल वॉर हो गया उसके मृतक भी तो गिनोगे। जितने अमरिकी ९/११ में मरे उससे जयादा इराक में।

युद्ध का बिल बुश का तीन ट्रिलियन डॉलर। वो इतना ज्यादा पैसा है लोग सोंचना ही छोड़ देते हैं। कहीं १०० डॉलर पॉकेटमारी होती है तो पुलिस बुलाओ। एक लाख डॉलर का फ्रॉड होता है तो पुलिस बुलाओ केस करो। मिलियन डॉलर करप्शन को लफड़ा हो जाता है। लेकिन तीन ट्रिलियन। उसको तो छोड़ दो।

ट्रिलियन से नीचे का तो गप्प ही नहीं है बुश काल में। पहले तो एक ट्रिलियन सबसे धनाढ्य लोगो को बाँट दिया। बाँट ही दिया। लो, मुफ्त का पैसा। मेरे बाप की कमाई। तीन ट्रिलियन युद्ध में खर्च। MasterCard swipe करो। खर्चा कौन भरेगा? चीन किस कामके? वॉल स्ट्रीट पर ट्रिलियन डॉलर का फ्रॉड। तो अर्थतंत्र जब तास के घर के माफिक गिरा ........ बिन लादेन ने तो सिर्फ वर्ल्ड ट्रेड सेंटर गिराया। बुश ने पुरे अर्थतंत्र को ही गिरा दिया। अर्थतंत्र कोलॅप्स हुवा तो १३ ट्रिलियन डॉलर ऐसे गायब हुवा जैसे पीसी सरकार ने आ के गायब कर दिया हो। सफाचट। Wiped out, gone forever.

यार, किसी की भी ब्रेकिंग पॉइंट होती है। अमेरिकी अर्थतंत्र का भी था, वैज्ञानिक बुश ने पता लगा के छोड़ा।

अमेरिकी सरकार का एक साल का बजेट होता है तीन ट्रिलियन। यानि कि बहुत बड़ा अमाउंट है जिसकी मैं बात कर रहा।
अभी कहानी ख़त्म नहीं हुवी। तो स्टिमुलस कह के ७०० बिलियन खर्चे करने पड़े। करना चाहिए तीन ट्रिलियन लेकिन बुश के पार्टी ने होने नहीं दिया। तो देशको monetary स्टिमुलस के रास्ते जाने पड़े। उसका मतलब प्रिंटिंग प्रेस चालु करो और पैसा छापो। Basically पैसा छापो और बड़े बड़े बैंक को मुफ्त में दे दो। जीरो इंटरेस्ट रेट पर। सब तरफ बुश के दोस्त ही दोस्त।

Quantitative Easing

Quantitative easing is distinguished from standard central banking monetary policies, which are usually enacted by buying or selling government bonds on the open market to reach a desired target for the interbank interest rate. However, if a recession or depression continues even when a central bank has lowered interest rates to nearly zero, the central bank can no longer lower interest rates. The central bank may then implement a set of tactics known as quantitative easing. This policy is often considered a last resort to stimulate the economy. ...... A central bank enacts quantitative easing by purchasing—without reference to the interest rate—a set quantity of bonds or other financial assets on financial markets from private financial institutions...... Quantitative easing, and monetary policy in general, can only be carried out if the central bank controls the currency used in the country. The central banks of countries in the Eurozone, for example, cannot unilaterally expand their money supply and thus cannot employ quantitative easing. They must instead rely on the European Central Bank (ECB) to enact monetary policy.

How the Great Recession Was Brought to an End

The U.S. government’s response to the financial crisis and ensuing Great Recession included some of the most aggressive fiscal and monetary policies in history. The response was multifaceted and bipartisan, involving the Federal Reserve, Congress, and two administrations. Yet almost every one of these policy initiatives remain controversial to this day, with critics calling them misguided, ineffective or both. The debate over these policies is crucial because, with the economy still weak, more government support may be needed, as seen recently in both the extension of unemployment benefits and the Fed’s consideration of further easing. ....... without the government’s response, GDP in 2010 would be about 11.5% lower, payroll employment would be less by some 8½ million jobs, and the nation would now be experiencing deflation. ...... When we divide these effects into two components—one attributable to the fiscal stimulus and the other attributable to financial-market policies such as the TARP, the bank stress tests and the Fed’s quantitative easing—we estimate that the latter was substantially more powerful than the former.

पहली बार मोदी नवाज Body Language पॉजिटिव है

Modi's Lahore stopover nothing more than an adventure, says Congress
"It is unfortunate that we get to know about prime minister's visit through a tweet... India and Pakistan relations are not so good as yet that he stops over there on his way back from another country," Congress spokesperson Ajoy Kumar said.

बजराओ मस्तानी विक्की क्रिस्टीना बार्सिलोना

एक इंटरव्यू में दीपिका ने कहा कि वो चाहती हैं वुडी एलेन के साथ काम करें। मेरे नजर में वुडी एलेन का सबसे बेहतर मुवी है विक्की क्रिस्टीना बार्सिलोना। तो बजराओ मस्तानी विक्की क्रिस्टीना बार्सिलोना को एडाप्ट किया गया है ऐसा लगता है। उससे भी बेहतर। क्योंकि विक्की क्रिस्टीना में मुघल बगैरह नहीं हैं। इमोशन तो इमोशन होता है, चाहे ओ आज का हो या २०० साल पहले का हो। टेक्नोलॉजी बदल सकता है, इमोशन परमानेंट है। दिलखुश। बहुत गहरा चोट करती है ये मूवी। अमिताभ की सीधे उत्तराधिकारी हैं दीपिका। इनको एक्शन में देख के तिलमिला जाते हैं।

बुश का बघदाद

MasterCard Classic (Photo credit: Wikipedia)

बुश जब बघदाद आया तो सबसे पहले क्या काम किया कि ट्रांसफार्मर उड़ाओ, पानी टंकी उड़ाओ। सद्दाम कहीं भी छुपा हो सकता है। अजीब आदमी है। ये नहीं सोंचा लोग पानी पीते होंगे। मरुभूमि इलाका। तबतो सद्दाम ने पानी टंकी लगवायी होगी। कि पानी टंकी लगा दो नहीं तो लोग बगावत कर देंगे। प्रेस्टीज इशू है। अगर लोग बगावत कर देते हैं तो फिर ये जो इमेज है कि सद्दाम डिक्टेटर है वो तो गयी काम से। तो बुश ने उड़ा दिया। सबसे पहले। उसको कोई परवाह नहीं कि बगावत हो सकती है।

बुलडोज़र लगाने में टाइम लगता है क्या? दो चार रोज में युद्ध ख़त्म। तो फिर तुरंत उन्ही ट्रांसफार्मर और पानी टंकी के लिए अपने करीबी दोस्तों को मेगा बिलियन का बिना कम्पटीशन का कॉन्ट्रैक्ट दे दिया। देश लिबरेट कर दिया अब लगा दो ट्रांसफार्मर, लगा दो पानी टंकी। इराकी भी क्या याद करेंगे। 

राजनीति में एक पुराना नियम है: Follow The Money. अगर आपको राजनीति समझ नहीं आती और समझना हो तो ये फोर्मुला लगा दो बहुत राजनीति आपको समझ में आ जाएगी। 

कुछ हैं conspiracy theorists वेबसाइट बगैरह बना के बैठे हैं कहते हैं ९/११ बुश ने किया, it was an inside job ---- अजीब लोग हैं। बिन लादेन को इस बात का इतना बुरा लगता था वो कभी क्रेडिट लेने से नहीं चुकता था। वीडियो निकालता था कि ईद मुबारक और अंत में जाते जाते ९ दो ११ के बारें थोड़ा हिंट दे देता था। फिर से अटैक की तयारी करो या ऐसा कुछ। ताकि अगर कोई गलतफहमी हो तो दुर हो जाए। 

९/११ बुश ने नहीं किया। बिन लादेन ने किया। लेकिन जिसको हम आप और ओबामा Great Recession कहते हैं और जिसे बुश और उनके दोस्त लोग Grand Recession कहते हैं --- वो लेकिन inside job था ---- fully documented. 

अमेरिका का अपना पैसा तो था नहीं। चीन से उधार में लो और इराक में खर्चा करो। बुश ने क्रेडिट कार्ड स्वाइप कर के युद्ध किया। Paid for by MasterCard. ..... कहते हैं There are somethings money can't buy, for everything else there is MasterCard. तो बघदाद का पानी टंकी बगैरह वो MasterCard केटेगरी के थे। 

अगर आप के देश का बजेट हो १०० बिलियन और आप ३३ बिलियन युद्ध में होम दो तो क्या होगा? उसी हिसाब से अगर आप के देश का बजेट हो तीन ट्रिलियन तो? 

नेपाली में कहते हैं भ्वांग। मैथिलि में कहते हैं भुम। हिंदी में क्या कहते हैं? 

तो ये सबके सामने हो रहा था तो वाल स्ट्रीट वालो ने फोटोकॉपी मार दिया। घर गिरबी रख के लोग लोन लेते हैं। लेकिन एक ही घर पर चार बार पाँच बार लोन लो तो क्या होगा? घर बैंक का है आप का अभी हुवा भी नहीं लेकिन आप ने लोन निकाल लिया। बैंक ने वैसे ढेर सारे घरो का बनडलिंग कर दिया और किसी दूसरे बैंक को होलसेल में बेच दिया। वैसे ही दो चार राउंड हो गया। उसको कहा गया innovation ---- यानि कि हम financial instruments बना रहे हैं। सब लोग अपना मंथली पेमेंट करते रहे तब तक पता नहीं चलता। लेकिन कुछ लोग ऐसे निकले घर खरीदने के स्थिति में नहीं थे फिर भी डाउन पेमेंट कर चुके थे। पियर प्रेशर। नौकरी चली गयी। मंथली पेमेंट बंद। पैसा रहेगा तब न दिजिएगा। आप बुश हैं जो चीन से उधार लोगे। 

तो पुरा घर तास के पत्ते के घर के तरह गिर गया ----- now THAT was an inside job. वो बिन लादेन ने नहीं किया। हालांकि वो क्रेडिट लेना चाहता था। उसका था कि अमेरिका को ऐसे युद्ध में घिंचो कि वो afford ना कर सके। 

Great Recession में कितने ट्रिलियन डॉलर ध्वस्त हो गए अभी तक हिसाब हो रहा है। बहुत मिडिल क्लास और लोअर मिडिल क्लास अमेरिकी का पेंशन गायब गया। उनकी क्या होगी वो तो जब वो रिटायर होंगे तब पता चलेगा। 

अमेरिका में भी बहुत घपला है।

चिनिया कहते हैं non-interference ----- वो लेकिन कह रहे हैं युद्ध बहुत खर्चिला होता है अच्छा बिजनेस नहीं। युद्ध से अच्छा बिजनेस हैं लोगों को लोन दो, विशेष कर के उन्हें जो युद्ध करना चाहते हैं।

टेक्सास में काऊबॉय कल्चर है।

India: Holding Two Elections Every Five Years

Indian general election, 2009 (Photo credit: Wikipedia)

I think that would be a great idea. The entire country has only two election dates every five years. The national elections and half the state elections are held on one day. State elections for the rest of the states are held on the other day. And all local elections are also held on one of the two days.

For the state elections it would be a good idea to get half the country (by population) vote on one day, and the other half on the other day. If you put together the North-East, West Bengal, Sikkim, Bihar, and Uttar Pradesh in one basket, would that be half the country? If not add a few more adjacent states. 

Basically you get rid of the idea of mid-term elections. Parliaments do full terms. Why not? 

With the current system, you can get a decisive mandate for the Lok Sabha and still feel like you never really got a mandate. Elections are never over. There's always a major election just round the corner. Bihar is over, Uttar Pradesh is on. That is democratic chaos. 

This would also boost local bodies. You can't have a robust democracy if you don't have robust local bodies. The local bodies are the most exciting part of the democracy. The people get to actively participate. 

Because local elections can be held on either of the two days, both dates will feel like national election days. Maybe the rule should be you can't hold the state and the local election on the same day. That way states will use one date for the state level and the other for the local level election.

And the two dates should be a Sunday. 

Abhi to jo hai chaos hai. 

Bill Clinton Took Three Years

The guy who gave America its longest peacetime economic expansion took three years to show he was up to something. 1993 was dud, 1994 was dud, 1995 was a dud. But US in 1992 is not India in 2014. The US was already a First World Country at the time. There was no fundamental infrastructure to build. The Indian democracy is so much more complex, one of the smartest Americans ever to become ambassador to India simply referred to it as "the imponderables of Indian politics," JFK's John Kenneth Galbraith.

Narendra Modi has been doing excellent work. At a fundamental level. The GST bill alone will give India another two points in terms of growth. And with everything else he has been doing, I see the economy going past a 10% growth rate before he has to go to the people again in 2019. If the growth rate is past 10%, he will see re-election. I have no doubts in my mind. Right now I don't see how the growth rate will not go past 10%. It has to. He has been doing excellent work. But India is such a big country, so complex, so democratic, the work will take some time to show visible bounce. The challenge is not to get it past 10%, the challenge is to keep it past 10% for 30 years. Modi doing 20 years would make sense.

I will give the guy two more years before I start judging him. People who can't see the people gave him a five year mandate last year don't know the ABC of politics. Bihari voters are smart. They had zero doubts about whether Modi was going to shift from Delhi to Patna. So they picked the guy who is the best man for the job. Nitish Kumar is every bit as skillful a politician.

Bill Clinton is not a good comparison for Narendra Modi. Clinton had it easy by Modi's standards. A more appropriate comparison would be Deng Xiaoping. Deng took much longer, and his work really started showing visible results only after he was dead and gone. At least Indians don't need to wait that long. 2019 will have been long enough for Modi.

The BJP is slated to lose almost all, quite possibly all, state elections next year. And that is nothing to do with Modi. That is to do with state dynamics in each case. The media should take lessons in democracy from the sophisticated Bihari voters who seem to know the difference between a national election and a state election.

The only time Modi matters again at the booth is in 2019.

Narendra Modi: The Limits of a Political Rock Star
After a soaring 2014, this was the year the Indian prime minister and the BJP fell to earth.

If 2014 was the year that saw Prime Minister Narendra Modi’s popularity soar to an all-time high, events in 2015 underscored rising voter disillusionment. While Modi is still India’s most popular political leader, his government’s disappointing performance over the past year has impacted the electoral fortunes of his Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP). Eighteen months after the BJP’s spectacular victory, Modi and the BJP no longer appear invincible....... Two important reform bills – one to streamline India’s federal and state sales tax and the other to facilitate land acquisition – hang in limbo. The government has blamed opposition obstructionism in parliament for blocking the legislation. But it has only itself to blame. Not only did it subject the Congress-led United Progressive Alliance government (2004-2014) to similar obstructionism, it has also arrogantly attempted at pushing legislation down the opposition’s throat. ...... the party was routed in the Bihar assembly election........ Close on the heels of that crushing defeat was a setback in elections to local bodies in Gujarat. Here the BJP lost control over rural bodies and the iron-grip it once enjoyed over municipalities weakened. This setback was all the more painful for the party as Gujarat has been its impregnable fortress, with the party having won every election in the state since 2000. Importantly, this is Modi’s home state. ........ and another to provide a bank account for every household to end “financial untouchability.” ........ Economist Rajiv Kumar exulted over India finally having “a ‘real’ prime minister with his hand firmly on the steering wheel.” Modi’s “leading from the front and laying down the behavioral norms, targets and programs, has shored up sagging morale and ostensibly brought new purpose to the government machinery,” he said. ....... Modi’s decisive image stems from the fact that he makes decisions quickly and that is because he makes them on his own, a retired bureaucrat based in Delhi said, adding that Modi is the undisputed boss of the government and the BJP. All decisions related to policy and programs are made by him. Rarely are his ministers consulted or even kept in the loop. Meetings with ministers and BJP parliamentarians are monologues with Modi doing all the talking. Nobody disagrees with him. Or rather they don’t dare air their differences with him. ..... Critics like historian Ramachandra Guha have described the Modi government as “anti-intellectual,” having “absolute contempt for scholars, literature and the arts. It is not contribution to the field but proximity to the Sangh Parivar, a family of Hindu right-wing organizations of which the BJP is a part, that determines appointments to key posts. ....... Most alarming is the Modi government’s failure or rather reluctance to address mounting communal violence being unleashed by members of the Parivar. Churches have been attacked and violence against Muslims has increased. .......

Those inciting communal hatred are not fringe elements but governors, union ministers, chief ministers, parliamentarians – all belonging to the BJP or subscribing to its Hindutva ideology. Their hateful speeches are made in the chambers of the Lok Sabha, in front of television cameras, and at public rallies. Yet they have gone unchecked.

.... Modi’s grand plans for the economy. .... his party’s electoral debacles signal that the Indian voter cannot be taken for granted. The “rock-star” receptions that the Parivar organized for Modi during his visits abroad may have impressed his die-hard fans at home and his cheerleaders among the Indian diaspora, but for millions of voters, mere pledges aren’t enough. ..... Political commentator Shekhar Gupta says that he needs to get out of campaign mode and get down to “calmer, old-fashioned governance.”

रावण या वाल्मिकी: कौन बड़ा सनातनी शैतान?

रावण अपने युगका सबसे बड़ा ज्ञाता था, the most learned man alive. वेद पुराण उसको सब मालुम था, पन्ना पन्ना। इस बातका खुद रामको एहसास था। रावण के सामने वाल्मिकी कुछ नहीं। लेकिन दोनों थे सनातनी। एक ही गैंग के लोग। जैसे भारत के पास थल सेना है, वायु सेना, जल सेना। अलग अलग नहीं है।

सनातनी को आजतक घमंड है कि तुम हमसे जित ही नहीं सकते। पहले तो वो बर्बर आक्रमण कर देता है। जैसे बाघ हरिण को मार देता है। सभ्य लोग वैसा नहीं करते। लेकिन जंगल राज में सब चलता है। वो जो हजारों लाखों भिक्षुओ को किया। जमीन जायदाद के लिए तो नहीं किया। By definition भिक्षु के पास कुछ नहीं होता। तो फिर क्यों? भिक्षु का सबक अहिंसा। तो वो तो सभ्य भाषा हो गयी।

अपहरण। Kidnapping. रावण ने वही तो किया। रावण को इस बात का आश्चर्य हुवा कि सीता वन से सोने के लंका में आ गयी लेकिन खुश नहीं है। इसकी उसने कल्पना नहीं की थी। सीता का राम से स्वयंवर हुवा था। सीता ने खुद पसंद किया था। तो सनातनी worldview में औरत होती है property. गेहुँ का बोरा आप एक कमरे से दुसरे कमरे में ले जाते हो तो गेहुँ से पुछते हो क्या? जितने ऋषि मुनि हैं सबके सब पुरुष ही क्यों? सोंचने वाली बात है।

रावण के ये कल्पना में नहीं था कि राम लंका तक आ भी सकता है। दो भाई हैं। रावण के पास सेना है। युद्ध की कोई संभावना ही नहीं थी। उसने घमंड नहीं किया analysis की। युद्ध में हम हार नहीं सकते। सनातनी कहते।

लेकिन रावण तो हार गया। बुरी तरह। तो सनातनी कहता है, यद्ध में जित गए तो क्या। हम तुम्हें उसके बाद भी हरा सकते हैं। यानि कि हमारे जल सेना को हरा दिए तो क्या अभी थल सेना तो बाँकी है। तो वहाँ वाल्मिकी अपना रोल खेलता है।

वाल्मिकी रामायण अंत तक पढ़ो तो नहीं लगता है राम जिते हैं। सीता ने गलती की। लंका में रहती तो सुख से रहती। अंत तक पढ़ो तो राम लगने लगते हैं विलन। अमरीश पुरी। प्रेम चोपड़ा। शक्ति कपुर। तो वो सनातनी का कहना है, दावा है कि तुम हम से जित ही नहीं सकते। You simply can not win.

तो ये चैलेंज आज के रामभक्त को है। कि क्या ये सही है? कि सनातनी के साथ राम भगवान जित ही नहीं सकते? असंभव?

रावण या वाल्मिकी: कौन बड़ा सनातनी शैतान?

वेद पुराण उपनिषद --- ये सब हुवा Old Testament. ईसाई उस ओल्ड टेस्टामेंट को हटा के फेंक दिए हैं ऐसी बात नहीं है। बाइबल शुरू ही होता है ओल्ड टेस्टामेंट से। तो वेद पुराण उपनिषद को यादव या हरिजन क्लेम नहीं कर सकते या नहीं करना चाहिए ऐसी बात नहीं।

लेकिन शायद हरिजन मुक्ति इस बात में है कि हरिजन क्लेम करें हमारा अपना एक अलग धर्म है। जिस तरह बुद्ध धर्म है, इस्लाम है, उसी तरह हम हरिजनों का अपना एक अलग धर्म है। जिस तरह भारत ने ब्रिटेन को कहा हमारा अपना  देश है।

सनातनी से क्यों नहीं जिता जा सकता? जन और धन का रक्षा आधुनिक राज्य (modern state) की प्रथम जिम्मेवारी होती है। धर्म निरपेक्षता उस आधुनिक राज्य की नींव है। उस धर्म निरपेक्षता के छाते के अंदर सब आ जाते हैं, सब बराबर हैं: सनातनी, यादव, हरिजन, मुहम्मदन, बुद्धिस्ट, ईसाई, सिख।

दलित सबसे ज्यादा राम के इलाके में हैं। आखिर क्यों?

जिस राम के बीवी का अपहरण किया सनातनी ने, जिस राम को युद्ध में परास्त करना चाहा, जिस रामको विलन बना दिया उस सबके बावजुद ---- तो फिर राम मंदिर किसने तोडा? आपको क्या लगता है?

हरे राम हरे कृष्ण।

ये क्या हो रहा है? American Style Gridlock?

ऐसे देश १०% तरफ नहीं जाएगी। जिस देशमें इनकम टैक्स ठोस नहीं है वहाँ सरलीकृत सेल्स टैक्स का होना बहुत जरुरी है। Informal sector को भी समेट लेती है।



Indian Politics Thwart Prime Minister Narendra Modi’s Tax-Reform Plans For the second time this year, India concludes its Parliament session without legislating a nationwide sales tax

Partisan bickering in India’s Parliament has stalled an important piece of Prime Minister Narendra Modi’s economic agenda: a constitutional amendment that would create a simplified nationwide tax system to replace a commerce-stifling patchwork of state levies. .... The winter session of India’s legislature ended Wednesday without a vote on the measure in the upper house, where Mr. Modi’s Bharatiya Janata Party is in the minority, after lawmakers spent weeks trading jabs over graft allegations involving top politicians. .....

“The economy suffers while politics overrides everything.”

..... Facing opposition protests and fearing a rural backlash ahead of the Bihar vote, Mr. Modi in August retreated from legislative efforts to ease India’s strict land-acquisition law and make it easier for the government to get land for industry and infrastructure. ..... The gridlock is the result, in part, of a tit-for-tat strategy by the main opposition Congress party, whose final years in power were marred by protests led by the BJP.

When Congress was in government, the BJP blocked tax legislation similar to what it is now trying to pass.

..... With major plans stymied in Parliament, Mr. Modi has sought to breathe life into the economy through executive actions and other moves, including a plan to revive heavily-indebted power-distribution companies and ease foreign-investment limits in some industries. .... Congress accused Mr. Modi of a political vendetta after the party’s president, Sonia Gandhi, and her son, Rahul, were summoned before a magistrate to answer a complaint alleging cheating and criminal breach of trust. ..... Emerging from court Saturday, Mr. Gandhi said Mr. Modi had encouraged “false allegations” to frighten political rivals. The government said it wasn’t involved in the case. The complaint was filed by politician Subramanian Swamy in 2012. He later joined the BJP. .....

‘Parliament has become a forum less for debate and more to settle political scores.’

—M.R. Madhavan, president of think tank PRS Legislative Research ...... A post on Mr. Kejriwal’s official Twitter account called Mr. Modi a “coward and a psychopath.” The episode spiraled to include corruption allegations by Mr. Kejriwal against BJP Finance Minister Arun Jaitley, who in turn filed a defamation suit against Mr. Kejriwal. ......

These much publicized spats narrowed the space for a political compromise needed to break the logjam on economic policy-making.

..... On the tax amendment, Congress has said it doesn’t support some key provisions. It argues the tax rate should be capped at 18%—and that number must be included explicitly in the constitution—to prevent a creeping increase by future governments...... It also wants to do away with a proposed 1% additional levy designed to help manufacturing states....... Mr. Jaitley said the government is willing to find ways to address Congress’s second demand, but won’t legislate the tax rate so future governments have flexibility.

Five Things to Know About India’s Proposed Goods and Services Tax

India’s government is attempting to reform its messy web of sales taxes to make doing business across the country easier. ........ This complicated web snarls companies in red tape and slows down the transit of goods around the country because of border checks and other official inspections. ...... replace the patchwork of taxes with a single, nationwide sales levy, known as the goods-and-services tax, or GST.

Economists call the move an epochal lowering of commercial barriers.

..... a broad GST would deliver an immediate boost to output of 1% to 2% and lasting gains to productivity. .....

The bill needs the consent of two-thirds of Parliament and half of India’s 29 states.

Finance Minister Arun Jaitley wants the new system up and running by April 2016, saying it will “play a transformative role in the way our economy functions.” .......

States with large manufacturing bases have been wary of the GST: Receipts from the new tax would go to states where goods and services are consumed, not where they are produced.

........ The Modi government in December agreed to compensate states for lost revenue during the levy’s first five years, and to let them continue taxing alcohol and petroleum separately. Some experts say these and other possible exemptions would curb the GST’s effectiveness, however. ...... Jaitley told lawmakers on Wednesday that the standardized national rate for GST would be “much more diluted” than the 27% estimated

NDA GA Bipolarization: 30, 20, 50: What India Needs

The original version of General Electric's circular logo and trademark. The trademark application was filed on July 24, 1899, and registered on September 18, 1900 (Photo credit: Wikipedia)

थर्ड फ्रंट तो था ही नहीं। २०१४ में। और राहुल भी उम्मेदवार नहीं थे। सोनिया ने सक्रिय पहल किया। तो बीजेपी को ३०% और काँग्रेस को मिला २०% ---- और दुर दुर तक कोसो तक एक सफ़ेद धुँवा है फैला हुवा जहाँ ५०% मत बिखरे पड़े हैं। वो थर्ड फ्रंट नहीं है। इसी लिए मैंने कहा देशकी राजनीती एक कॉमेट की तरह है। न unipolar, न bipolar, न multipolar. सफेद धुँवा फैला हुवा है। इससे देश को घाटा है। देश के के हित में है कि एक bipolarization हो जाए। लोकतंत्र को अर्थतंत्र को ये चाहिए।

CBI ने जो रेड किया केजरीवाल के ऑफिस में ये तो बहुत बड़ी बात हो गयी। खबर मिल रहा है कि मोदी ने नहीं करवाया। तो ये क्या हुवा? ये तो एक कु हो गया। इससे पहले जिस सक्स को सीबीआई ने तंग किया वो आज प्रधान मंत्री है। उससे पहले जभी लालु को तंग किए। कुछ समय बाद अंक गणित लालु के पक्ष में आ गयी थी। Waste कर दिया गया।

General Electric कंपनी में है १० साल में लीडरशिप चेंज होता है। तो एक प्रक्रिया है एक रश्म है। भारत में कहा जाता है CBI संसद के अधीन है, पाकिस्तान में ISI पैरेलल गवर्नमेंट के तरह है। कहीं भारत में भी वो समस्या तो नहीं। CBI में कोई सेल है जो data crunching करती है और निर्णय करती है अगला बन्दा ये है। बहुत ही गलत बात है। You can't second guess the people like that. Especially, you can't act upon it to try and influence the democratic process.

Grand Alliance की बात शुरू हुवी है बिहार से। वो बात बिहार से बाहर जाती है कि नहीं वो अभी देखना बाँकी है।

सारे देश के सभी चुनाव पाँच साल में एक बार किए जाने की बात हो रही है। वो गलत होगी। लेकिन पाँच साल में दो बार हो तो शायद सही है। केंद्र, राज्य और स्थानीय। ढाई साल में एक ऐतवार को। बुथ पर जाना है।