Modi Has Momentum

Modi has momentum right now. It is because he is the only person who is running for Prime Minister. Nitish sure is not running. If Modi can bag 20 seats in Bihar and 30 in Uttar Pradesh, he might be able to get the BJP past 200 seats nationally. And if he manages that, a lot of non-Congress, non-BJP parties will feel an immense pull to join his coalition. Several parties in the South don't seem to have issues with Modi.

You can argue a BJP with 200 or 220 seats still creates room for a major non-BJP alliance. True, but that alliance will likely not be a strong one, especially if formed after the elections are over. It might last two years. And then Modi might be able to get the BJP past the 272 mark on its own. And then the BJP is the new Congress.

That is one scenario.



Another scenario is one where the BJP does not cross the 200 mark and is maybe around 160 or 170. And the Congress is below the 150 mark. And there is a post poll formation of a Third Front, and after some fierce contesting Nitish emerges as the PM candidate.

But that is not the best scenario. The best scenario would be for the non-Congress, non-BJP parties to form a Federal Front from scratch. But that is a tall order. People like Mayawati wish to contest all seats in UP on her own. The Congress has potential allies.

Right now it is possible Nitish is betting on the second scenario. But it is a scenario that gives Modi a lot of room to play. He is already gunning for Bihar and Uttar Pradesh and doing well.

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100 Seats

Happy Birthday Amitabh

The Russia Idea On Syria Has To Be Carried Out Through The UN

English: Flag of Syria, from 1932-58 and 1961-63. (Photo credit: Wikipedia)

If war can be avoided, that is a good thing, but the proposal that has been making the rounds has to take the form of a UN Security Council resolution. What Syria will do has to be clear. What punishment will be meted out should Syria backtrack should also be clear in the resolution.

Some good will come out of the exercise. One, war will be avoided. Two, the UN will gain currency. Three, this will hopefully lead to a ceasefire in Syria and a political solution to the grave crisis in that country.

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Kerry's Proposal Is A Good One

English: SOCHI. With President of Syria Bashar al-Assad. Русский: СОЧИ, БОЧАРОВ РУЧЕЙ. С Президентом Сирии Башаром Асадом. (Photo credit: Wikipedia)

If Syria hands over all its chemical weapons, that can be a nice way out of the current quagmire. Wars are always ugly. There is no such thing called a surgical war. But pressure has to be maintained, and preparations have to be made.

Other than the weapon, a few good things about the move would be that one, maybe Assad will agree to a ceasefire and a political solution, and two, it is a good thing that Russia and the US are cooperating.

The tech community feels differently about Snowden than does DC. The nation state is in a clash with the Internet. The Internet has a libertarian bent to it. So the Russia-Snowden affair is not all that black and white.

If Assad will agree to hand over his chemical weapons, maybe Assad will also agree to a political solution that will start with an all round ceasefire to bring the mindless killings to an end. But then the roadmap has to lead to elections to a constituent assembly, to start with a caretaker interim government. Or am I asking too much?

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Syria: The Most Important Move Is Still Political

Barack Obama can strike if he wants to, and he does want to strike. He could rain 100 million dollars worth of missiles, or he could rain two billion dollars worth of missiles. He has leeway to decide. There will be no American troops on the ground. None are needed.

But the biggest challenge is not all that. That part is done. The biggest challenge is political and it has to do with the Syrian opposition.

The Obama administration has to make a clear case to the Syrian opposition in exile. They have to get their act together. That means cobbling together a united opposition. That means agreeing to an interim president in waiting. Who is that candidate? That means agreeing to elections to a constituent assembly within a year of Assad getting toppled. That means only inviting those groups into the coalition that will agree to lay down their arms once Assad is out.

The transition will have to be smooth. The post-Assad regime ironically will have to secure all the chemical weapons as the first order of business, that and any other weapons of mass destruction.

Unless the Syrian opposition is willing to all this political homework, the Obama administration should attempt only a limited strike, enough to punish Assad but not enough to hand over Syria to the Al Qaeda. The Obama administration has to do all it can - and there is much it can do - to push the Syrian opposition to do all the necessary political homework. Why strike if you are not going to get rid of Assad? We are not attempting a fireworks display.

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Fallouts From An Attack

Take Down Assad