Could It Be Mamata?

Polling the Indian electorate is a tough proposition. But let's go by some numbers.

BJP set to emerge as single largest party in Lok Sabha polls: Survey

National Democratic Alliance (NDA) is likely to get 236 seats..... Congress, which came out with flying colours in the last General Elections, would be confined to 73 seats, while the fledging Aam Aadmi Party (AAP) is likely to get around 10 seats in the Lok Sabha polls ....... As far as the choice of prime ministerial candidate was concerned, Modi, backed by over 57 per cent respondents .......the federal front would beat the UPA with around 186 seats..... All India Trinamool Congress (AITC) would secure 29 seats, followed by AIADMK with 19 and BJD is expected to win on 16 seats

I think 200 is a magic number. If Modi can get the BJP past 200, then the democratic impulses of leaders in all parties will tell them the guy has a mandate, or at least something larger than everyone else. The BJP at 217 and the NDA at 236 is very close to the magic number of 272. Mamata or Jayalalita could opt for the Deputy Prime Ministership. And if they do, Third Front talk crumbles.

The Congress refused to name Rahul the PM candidate. And the Third Front refused to formally form. Both were magic moments. I was in disbelief both times. That makes Modi the only candidate for Prime Minister in the ring. If Modi manages to get both Mamata and Jayalalita, he will not need anyone else. Jayalalita's political move on the Rajiv Gandhi assassins was meant to get her closer to Modi. She wanted to make sure she was seen as anti-Congress. I am glad for the Supreme Court's move, but the political point was made.

If the BJP gets past 200, it will be hard for the Congress to prop up a Third Front government. For one, as a democratic party it might respect the right of the largest party to go into power. Two, if you prop up a Third Front government, and it misperforms and goes down the drain in two years, then you risk taking blame not only for the Congress' misperformance in power, but also that of the Third Front. The Congress might go below 50 at that point. And the BJP might command a simple majority all on its own if mid-term polls were then held.

The numbers still leave one scenario. The NDA goes to 236, but is made to sit in the opposition. A Third Front does take shape, and the Congress decides to throw its weight behind that Third Front. 186 seats of the Third Front propped up by 100 seats of the UPA gets you past 272. A mandate is a mandate. There is a reason why that magic number of 272 is there. The coalition that gets past that magic number can claim to have the mandate.

So Modi's claim to the throne is not secure yet, but he sure has momentum. The NDA's numbers have steadily climbed up over the past few months. He might take the NDA past 250 if the momentum holds. Then it is a no contest. You end up with a woman Deputy Prime Minister.

Modi's Cards To Play
India 2014: Most Interesting

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India 2014: Most Interesting

2014 is shaping to be the most interesting Indian election of my lifetime to date. The Congress that spearheaded India's independence struggle and then ruled for much of the half century after that is headed to below 100 seats. The BJP just might go past 200. AAP might emerge the third largest party: Kejriwal's resignation as Delhi Chief Minister was a political master stroke. Could AAP end up with 50 seats? I don't know.

BJP will get highest ever Lok Sabha tally, Congress lowest: Times Now poll

The poll projected that the BJP would win 202 seats if the elections were held now and its allies another 25, giving the NDA 227 seats in the 543-member LS. The Congress, in sharp contrast, would sink to just 89 and even with 12 seats from its allies the UPA would barely cross the 100 mark, it predicted. ..... With "others" likely to win 215 seats and many of them having joined hands with the BJP in the past, that would be very good news for those rooting for Narendra Modi as prime minister. In terms of vote shares, the NDA is estimated to win 36%, the UPA 22% and others 42%.

Right before Kejriwal resigned, the Third Front was in the lead in the projections with 42% of the vote to the BJP-led NDA's 36%. Some interesting permutations and combinations are possible, and most of them look good for India. I think 2014 will be that watershed year for the Indian economy like 1991 was when Manmohan Singh as Finance Minister opened up the economy a little. 2014 could be for India what 1980 was for China, the year when double digit growth rates started and stayed for over two decades non-stop. And we are all winners.

BJP is like McDonald's. It is the single largest fast food chain across America. But the Third Front is like the Chinese restaurants spread across America. Collectively they are bigger than McDonald's, but it does not appear that way. But 2014 could also shape up to be the election that mints out only winners. Modi, Nitish, Kejriwal, Rahul could all end up winners, no matter what.

Both Modi and Nitish would be wonderful if either were deprived of the big throne in Delhi and had to continue as Chief Minister. Their states would benefit. Neither seems to have clear successors who could replicate their magic in Gujrat and Bihar. On the other hand both have the political muscle that Manmohan Singh lacks.

One quality Kejriwal seems to share with Modi is it might be hard for him to put together a coalition. He might prove to be a one trick pony, at least this year. Just like Nitish has been saying he will support whoever will give special category status to Bihar, Kejriwal will go for whoever promises a Lokpal Bill at the center. AAP is number one on anti-corruption, but its economic vision has not gelled yet. Nitish has done the unthinkable when it comes to corruption in Bihar and is in a good position to seek Kejriwal's support after the election. Nitish has mastered the art of the Janata Durbar that Kejriwal tried and failed at.

Interim budget 2014: Chidambaram's 10-point agenda to make India 3rd largest economy

If you put the BJP at 190, the Congress at 100, AAP at 35, and the Third Front at 220, that does not put Modi in the lead, because the BJP at 190 and the Congress at 100 puts the BJP at 90. The Congress will support anyone but Modi, particularly Nitish. Rahul is a Nitish fan. What Nitish calls the Janata Parivar, the former Janata Dal party, might together bag more seats than AAP. That might also be true of his Eastern Bloc that includes Mamata.

Not creating a formal Third Front before the elections is a good step that does not push away Mamata and Mayawati. Both will support Nitish in the aftermath. Nitish as Prime Minister and Jayalalita as Deputy Prime Minister might be a good bet.

Nitish could end up a two term Prime Minister over 10 years if the Third Front parties were to form a federation. Each constituent party would stay as separate parties free to contest each other at state levels when necessary, but at the center each party would have a person who is part of some sort of a coordination committee in Delhi. Such a federation would ensure the Third Front government completes a five year term for the first time. Minus such a setup would leave too much room for horseplay.

AAP might not join such a Third Front. But it will support it if it gets a Lokpal Bill, and it should be given that. The Congress sure will not join the Third Front, but will happily extend outside support to keep Modi at bay. And Modi is going to continue to be an excellent Chief Minister.

But this outcome is not sure at all. Modi is very much in the running. The BJP crossing the 200 mark could throw up some interesting scenarios. And should the BJP cross the 200 mark, not form the government, and if the Third Front gives the country mid-term elections, the BJP could then cross the half way mark all on its own. It could become the new Congress.

I do think of Kejriwal as a future Prime Minister, but for that to happen he will have to realize the Indian electorate cares about double digit growth rates more than corruption. He has to look like he can deliver on both.

Jayalalita, Mamata and Mayawati are all in strong positions. It is good for India to have strong women politicians. It is just that none of them look strong right now on either anti-corruption or double digit growth rates.

Rahul can afford to stay out of power for another 10 years. He is young, he has time on his hands. That will also allow him time to build his party. He has some interesting initiatives in play in terms of power devolution in his party. But then parties like the Congress and the BJP are never really out of power. They always get some states to rule.

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Keeping The Congress Below 100 And The BJP Below 150

Indian general election, 2009 (Photo credit: Wikipedia)

I think a strongly constituted National Front that runs a national campaign might be able to give a severe blow to the two big parties. It is possible to get the Congress below the 100 mark, and it is also possible for the BJP to be below 150.

But something like that can not happen on its own. There is work involved.

India 2014: Doing The Math For Nitish

BJP 150
Congress 100
AAP 20

JD(U) 35
Trinamool Congress 25
SP 30
BSP 30
AIADMK 30
CPI(M) 20
BJD 20
TDP 10

35 + 25 + 30 + 30 + 30 + 20 + 20 + 10 = 200
Others = 545 - (150 + 100 + 20 + 200) = 75

National Front = 200
AAP = 20
Others = 75

A majority government without either Congress or BJP support. Possible.

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Could Kejriwal Be PM?

Arvind Kejriwal’s stunning performance in the Delhi elections has changed equations in Indian politics. The new Chief Minister of Delhi was a key organizer for the anti-corruption Anna Hazare movement.

He sounds like Ralph Nader when he says the Congress and the BJP are not different at all. That is what Nader had to say about the Democrats and the Republicans. But Nader stayed a fringe candidate, Kejriwal has managed to capture Delhi, and is talking in terms of fielding candidates in over 300 constituencies for the parliamentary elections, including in every constituency in Gujrat.

It is a foregone conclusion that no party will cross the 200 mark. The Congress might even hit close to 100. The BJP will likely cross 150. For the first time a large space is being created for the non-Congress, non-BJP parties. And there are several aspirants for the top job in that camp.

Jayalalita and Mulayam Singh have been open about it. I think Nitish stands a strong chance. But the Third Front stays a hodgepodge, and if the Aam Aadmi Party managed to field candidates in more than 300 constituencies and managed to win in even 50 of those, it will emerge as the largest among the non-Congress, non-BJP parties.

If somehow Modi manages to get the BJP past the 200 mark, someone like Jayalalita might be happy to become Deputy Prime Minister. But if the BJP might hit 160 and the Congress 100, you can bet the Congress will join the anybody-but-the-BJP bandwagon. Which would mean essentially the BJP at that point would be considered a party with 60 seats, 100 of its seats cancelled out by the Congress.

Could Kejriwal end up with 50 MPs? How about 100? If he manages to cross the 100 mark, he would most certainly be Prime Minister.

Right now Modi and Kejriwal are the only two individuals who have all India campaigns in mind. Jayalalita is focused on Tamilnadu, Nitish is focused on Bihar, Mulayam is focused on Uttar Pradesh. But 50 MPs for Kejriwal, and 200 for Modi are tall orders. The largest of the non-Congress, non-BJP parties tend to get 30 seats.

The situation is fluid. India remains the most fascinating democracy. And YouTube makes it rather easy to follow the flux.

Modi has a good record economically. But Nitish Kumar’s record is better. Modi has a national party. Nitish does not. On the other hand, the BJP, it can be argued, is also a regional party. Nitish has an Eastern Bloc in mind. West Bengal, Bihar, Jharkhand, and Orissa are looking to gang up. Each of those states have strong Chief Ministers sitting on top of regional parties. That is a bloc of about 100 parliamentary seats.

I think Nitish is betting on a post-election alignment of forces.

Many Indian leaders like to claim the 19th century belonged to Britain, the 20th to America and that the 21st will belong to India. Well, so far America is still in the lead. And it is China that is giving competition. India has not happened yet. There are so many Chief Ministers in India performing well. Gujrat as an economy is bigger and better than most economies in Europe.

There is a strong anti-incumbency wave in the country. Rahul’s chances are slim. There are many leaders fundamentally opposed to Modi, Rahul and Nitish among them. That makes it hard for Modi unless he managed to get the BJP past the 200 mark. A hung parliament is a foregone conclusion. The leader of the largest among the non-Congress, non-BJP parties will stand to make a claim. Who will that be?

What is obvious is that the run up to the elections are going to be very interesting. And the post-poll scenario is also going to be colorful. I don’t think Mulayam or Jayalalita will be it. It is between Nitish and Kejriwal. But then a scenario where Mamata has more MPs than Nitish or Jayalalita more than Kejriwal could also throw up interesting scenarios.

I like to say India is a European Union that is actually working. There is a single currency. More than six decades after independence the country is largely an amalgam of regional parties.

Overall I remain optimistic. I think India is poised to hit close to double digit growth rates. And so all fermentation in the political process is positive. India is proof democracy works. It takes time but it works.

As for Kejriwal, it remains to be seen if he can manage to get his magic in Delhi to hit a nationwide stride. Howard Dean did not become president. Imran Khan did not become Prime Minister. Anna Hazare did not become a politician. And so it is not a foregone conclusion that the Aam Aadmi Party will emerge the third largest. But if it does then Kejriwal stands a strong chance of getting the top job.

Modi Vs Kejriwal

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Modi Has Momentum

Modi has momentum right now. It is because he is the only person who is running for Prime Minister. Nitish sure is not running. If Modi can bag 20 seats in Bihar and 30 in Uttar Pradesh, he might be able to get the BJP past 200 seats nationally. And if he manages that, a lot of non-Congress, non-BJP parties will feel an immense pull to join his coalition. Several parties in the South don't seem to have issues with Modi.

You can argue a BJP with 200 or 220 seats still creates room for a major non-BJP alliance. True, but that alliance will likely not be a strong one, especially if formed after the elections are over. It might last two years. And then Modi might be able to get the BJP past the 272 mark on its own. And then the BJP is the new Congress.

That is one scenario.



Another scenario is one where the BJP does not cross the 200 mark and is maybe around 160 or 170. And the Congress is below the 150 mark. And there is a post poll formation of a Third Front, and after some fierce contesting Nitish emerges as the PM candidate.

But that is not the best scenario. The best scenario would be for the non-Congress, non-BJP parties to form a Federal Front from scratch. But that is a tall order. People like Mayawati wish to contest all seats in UP on her own. The Congress has potential allies.

Right now it is possible Nitish is betting on the second scenario. But it is a scenario that gives Modi a lot of room to play. He is already gunning for Bihar and Uttar Pradesh and doing well.

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