Showing posts with label Lok Sabha. Show all posts
Showing posts with label Lok Sabha. Show all posts

Saturday, January 31, 2015

प्रधान मंत्री जन धन आयोजना और Microfinance

मोदीने जो किया है वो एक क्रांतिकारी कदम है। अब लगभग सभी भारतीय परिवारोंके पास बैंक खाता है। संपत्ति सोने के रूपमें मत रखो, बैंक खातेमें पैसा जमा करो -- वो सन्देश है। बहुत बड़ी बात है ये। देशकी कायापलट कर देगी। Domestic Capital Markets के लिए इतना बड़ा काम भारतमें पिछले हजार सालमें नहीं हुए। चार महिनेमें कर दिखाया।

मोदीने गुजरातमें जो काम किया विकासके लिए उसका मैं सदैव प्रशंसक रहा। और २००२ दंगे जो कि एक बहुत बड़ी ट्रेजेडी थी, उसके लिए मैंने भारतके सर्वोच्च अदालतको माना। उस अदालतने निर्णय किया कि मोदी जिम्मेवार नहीं हैं तो नहीं हैं। और वो मेरी अडान चुनाव से पहले की है। लेकिन चुनाव के दरम्यान मैं नीतिश के लिए रूटिंग कर रहा था। सोच्ने वाली बात ये है कि मेरी पैदाइश बिहारकी है। दरभंगा में पैदा हुवा मै। और नीतिश ने बिहारकी कायापलट की। तो उतना तो मेरे को करना ही था। अभी भी मैं उनका प्रशंसक हुँ। लालुका भी मैं प्रशंसक हुँ। लालुके पार्टीके बिहार यूनिट (एक ही तो यूनिट है पार्टीकी) के प्रेसिडेंट रामचन्द्र पुर्वे मेरे मामा लगेंगे। लालु जब मुख्य मंत्री थे तो मेरे मामा उनके शिक्षा मंत्री थे। And Laloo has been the best Railways Minister in India's history. नीतिशने मुख्य मंत्रीके रूपमें और लालुने रेल मंत्रीके रूपमें जादु ही कर दिया। हार्वर्ड यूनिवर्सिटी से लेके बिल गेट्स तक दोनों के फैन हो गए। तो उसकी सराहना तो करनी ही होगी। १,००० साल की caste dynamics को लालु ने चैलेंज किया। छोटीमोटी बात नहीं है।

भारतके वो प्रथम प्रमुख नेता हैं नीतिश जिन्होने मोदीको भविष्यका प्रधान मंत्री बताया। वो मुख्य मंत्री बनने से पहले की बात है। RSS का जो लव जिहाद और घर वापसीका ढकोसला है वो नीतिशको भी अच्छा नहीं लगा तो मोदीको भी नहीं। मोदी तेली तो नीतिश कुर्मी --- दोनों एक ही caste category से हैं। दोनों पिछड़े वर्गसे हैं। दोनों निम्न परिवारसे हैं। दोनों ने मुख्य मंत्रीके रूपमें बहुत अच्छा काम किया।

गौर करनेवाली बात ये है कि २०१४ में प्रधान मंत्री पदके लिए सिर्फ एक आदमी लड़ रहा था। घोषित कैंडिडेट दुसरा कोइ था ही नहीं। राहुल घोषित कैंडिडेट नहीं थे। नीतिश तो थे ही नहीं। एक बार बात ही बात में कह दिया, "मैं कोइ बुरा कैंडिडेट थोरे हुँ," लेकिन वो दौर में नहीं थे। नीतिशका इशारा था एल के आडवाणी की ओर। अभी भी मुलायमकी और इशारा कर रहे हैं। फिर से गलती कर रहे हैं। बडोका आदर करो, लेकिन इतना मत करो कि डेमोक्रेसी गड़बड़ हो जाए।

Maybe it was not a well thought out position by Nitish. Maybe he made a mistake in breaking up with the BJP on the issue of Modi. I don't know. I am not sure. If he had been part of the NDA, he would have been its most important leader after Modi himself. But he let that go.

तो फिर नीतिश ने क्या किया? क्या गलती किया? शायद। लेकिन लोकतंत्रमें उनका लोकतान्त्रिक अधिकार है। वैसे भी वो जनता परिवार पृष्ठभूमिके लोग हैं। जहाँके थे वहाँ चले गए। या अगर प्रधान मंत्री के रेस में थे तो मोदी जित गए। वो हार गए। होता है।

सुशील मोदी कहते हैं, २००५ के बाद बिहार में अच्छा काम हुवा, उसका श्रेय तो मैं भी लुंगा। कोई गलत तर्क नहीं है। बात भारतकी है, लोकतंत्रकी है, विकासकी है, बिहारकी है। सुशील मोदीका कास्ट बैकग्राउंड भी नीतिशके जैसा है। तो मेरेको लगता है प्रतिस्प्रधा कसके होगी।

सारे भारतमें केजरीवाल और नीतिश ही हैं जो मोदीको चैलेंज कर सकते हैं। दिल्लीका चुनाव बिहार के लिए भी मायने रखती है। अगर केजरीवाल चुनाव हार जाते हैं तो नीतिशको बिहारमें दिक्कत है। Bihar is tougher than Delhi. दिल्लीमें केजरीवाल जित भी जाते हैं तो बिहारमें नीतिशको आसान है ऐसी बात नहीं।

लेकिन अगर केजरीवाल और नीतिश दोनों मुख्य मंत्री बन भी जाते हैं तो मोदीको केंद्रमें कोइ खास डिस्टर्ब नहीं होगा। भारतकी लोकतंत्र मजबुत होगी। लोकतंत्रमें बिपक्ष भी कोइ मायने रखती है। अभी तो लग रहा है मोदी कमसेकम १० साल तो प्रधान मंत्री बने ही रहेंगे। काम अच्छा कर रहे हैं।

बात है प्रधान मंत्री जन धन आयोजना की और Microfinance की। एक आधार बन गयी है। देश व्यापी रूपसे Microfinance का विस्तार किया जा सकता है।


Friday, June 06, 2014

Nitish' Options

हिन्दी: देश के उप राष्ट्रपति मोहम्मद हामिद अंस...
हिन्दी: देश के उप राष्ट्रपति मोहम्मद हामिद अंसारी पटना में पूर्व मुख्यमंत्री सत्येन्द्र नारायण सिन्हा(छोटे साहब) की 94वीं जयंती पर आयोजित व्याख्यानमाला श्रंखला पर पूर्व सांसद किशोरी सिन्हा और मुख्यमंत्री नीतीश कुमार के साथ (Photo credit: Wikipedia)
Word is Nitish does not want to ally with Laloo for 2015. What might Nitish be thinking?

Nitish should not be surprised that Modi won. It was a contest between Modi and Rahul, and the people picked Modi. Can you blame them?

One of Bill Clinton's laws of politics is, all elections are about the future. It does not matter that you gave Bihar eight good years. The people wanted a strong hand in Delhi, and they got it.

The Third Front did not exist before the elections. And it does not exist today. Jayalalita and Patnaik are prepared to deal with Modi one on one.

Those who aspire for leadership should lead. If Nitish has pan Indian ambitions he should act like it. But all his stated ambitions are to do with Bihar.

And there it might be hard to go solo. Or maybe not.

I don't think reviving his alliance with the BJP is an option. The departure was too clear. Maybe there is no going back there.

I think you are looking at a BJP government in Uttar Pradesh in a few years. Either it will be a Nitish sweep in Bihar next year, or perhaps the BJP will grab Bihar too. Looks like the BJP is also in a good position to wrest the Delhi state government.

Modi will do better in 2019 than he did in 2014. Because I expect him to perform. So the real challenge is how many states will the BJP rule? I can imagine the BJP might want to rule a majority of the states.

Nitish could accept defeat, or he could lead. He performed better as Chief Minister than Modi in Gujrat. He knows how to play the caste equations. Recently the Congress followed Nitish' lead. Nitish installed a Dalit Chief Minister. Subsequently Sonia installed a Dalit to lead the Congress in the Lok Sabha.

Laloo should be given credit for his stint as Railway Minister. He was excellent. The safe route would be to forge a JD(U)-RJD-Congress alliance in Bihar. But if Nitish is going solo, and the Congress is going solo, and the RJD is going solo, and the BJP keeps its alliance intact, then you just might see a BJP government in Bihar next year: Modi in Delhi, another Modi in Patna.

Why did Nitish ditch Modi? Did he do it for Advani? He kept saying the BJP should get someone else from its own ranks. So Modi is communal and Advani is not?

I think there is a clear case to be made along the so-called secular lines. All of the BJP's MPs are Hindu. That does not speak to India's diversity. Just because they won does not make it right. There is room for Nitish, sure. He can outcompete Modi on development. And he can offer a more diverse face, one that in inclusive and respectful of India's second largest group, the Muslims.

But that would require stepping up to the plate.

The BJP's emergence in West Bengal means even there now there is some room for the Left and Mamata to perhaps work together.

But now is not the time for such talk. Today is Modi's day. I give Modi two years to take India's growth rates to 10 per cent and beyond. That is my personal benchmark for him.

I hope Nitish makes a comeback in Bihar. I like the guy.

Modi might stay Prime Minister for 10, maybe even 15 years, and if he does that would mean Nitish will never get to be Prime Minister. Or Nitish could pull his weight, and run Bihar for 10 glorious years, and then hope to take to the helm in Delhi for five years. But that would require architecting a pan Indian opposition.
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Sunday, May 25, 2014

Modi Wave Or Pendulum Swing?

It is interesting to me that the non-Congress, non-BJP parties collectively got more votes than either the BJP or the Congress. What is even more interesting is that the BJP has grown largely at the expense of the Congress.

I think Modi has earned himself 10 years. But in a post-Modi scenario there is going to be room for the creation of a Third Front.





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I See Modi Doing Well

Flag of the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP), a na...
Flag of the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP), a national political party in India. (Photo credit: Wikipedia)
I see Modi doing well as Prime Minister. I see him giving a strong performance on infrastructure, and FDI. I see him managing the state apparatus well. If he won such a thumping majority based on promise, his majority in five years might be stronger, because it will be based on performance.

What are the political implications? The Congress will have an even harder time crossing the 50 mark in the Lok Sabha next time around. In five years the BJP might cross 300 on its own, and the NDA might cross 350. The message to the Congress is, abhi achhe deen nahin ane wale hain.

The BJP and the NDA mostly grew at the expense of the Congress. Between them the Congress and the BJP get about 50% of the votes. This time was no different. It is just that the pendulum swung much wider this time and the Congress got thrashed. So 50% of the people voted for neither the BJP nor the Congress. There is a message there. Should the Modi government tire or falter, it might be the Third Front, and not the Congress, that might step into the void.

Also, the Third Front parties can not wait for post-poll scenarios. If they are to be viable, they need a permanent structure. They got nothing right now.

This is the first time a Chief Minister has become Prime Minister in India. Now it is going to be that much harder for a non Chief Minister to get the top job in the future. That is bad news for Rahul.

Those who oppose Modi get to try their luck in the states. Modi got Delhi. And he will keep it for 10 years. During those 10 years his political competitors get to prove themselves in their respective states. That also applies to the Congress which still runs a healthy share of the states.
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