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Friday, May 10, 2019

China US Trade War Escalation



How Goes the Trade War? by Paul Krugman Donald Trump ... provided us with many iconic quotations .... extremely clear examples of bad ideas........ foreigners paid none of the bill, U.S. companies and consumers paid all of it. And the losses to U.S. consumers exceeded the revenue from the new tariffs, so the tariffs made America poorer overall...... These price hikes led to substantial changes in behavior. Imports of the tariffed items fell sharply, partly because consumers turned to domestic products, but also in large part because importers shifted their sourcing to countries that aren’t currently facing Trump tariffs. For example, a number of companies already seem to have begun buying goods they previously bought from China from Vietnam or Mexico instead........... Consider the following example: pre-tariff, the U.S. imports some good from China that costs $100. Then the Trump administration imposes a 25% tariff, raising the price to consumers to $125. If we just keep importing that good from China, consumers lose $25 per unit purchased – but the government raises an extra $25 in taxes, leaving overall national income unchanged.......... Suppose, however, that importers shift to a more expensive source that isn’t subject to the tariff; suppose, for example, that they can buy the good from Vietnam for $115. Then consumers only lose $15 – but there is no tariff revenue, so that $15 is a loss for the nation as a whole........... But what if they turn to a domestic supplier – say, a U.S. company that will sell the product for $120. How does this change the story? ......... Here the crucial thing is that producing a good domestically has an opportunity cost. The U.S. is near full employment, so the $120 in resources used to produce that good could and would have been employed producing something else in the absence of the tariff. Diverting them into producing what we used to import means a net loss of $20, with no revenue offset. ....... in practice any manufacturing jobs added by the Trump tariffs are probably offset by losses of other manufacturing jobs. ........ most of the tariffs are on intermediate goods – inputs into production, so that job gains in, say, steel are offset by losses in autos and other downstream sectors. Beyond that, the tariffs have probably contributed to a rising dollar, which makes U.S. exports less competitive.

Wednesday, May 08, 2019

India 2019: The Suspense

If the BJP-led alliance is at 250 or above, it might be able to still cobble together a majority by pulling in a few parties. But if the tally is closer to 200, that opens up the distinct possibility of the emergence of a new Prime Minister. As to who that new face will be is not at all clear.

The total number of seats is 545. That puts the halfway mark at 273. There are three camps: the BJP-led alliance, the Congress-led alliance, and the unaffiliated, sometimes known as the Federal Front. It is possible the unaffiliated could emerge as the second largest block after the Congress-led alliance and seek the outside support of the Congress-led alliance. As in, the BJP-led alliance could emerge the largest but not the majority block and still have to sit out.

Or Modi could easily hit 300. It is hard to tell.

NDA: 250-300, UPA: 80-120, FF: 160-200. If the Federal Front crosses 200, it might as well claim the top job.

On election results, it is best to keep an open mind One of the great charms of Indian democracy is the power of the silent voters ....... When the counting began for the 2014 election, there was very little expectation that some four hours later India would be witnessing a clear Narendra Modi victory, an event that was subsequently to be described as a ‘wave’. As Prannoy Roy has written in a recent book, even the outcome of the tsunami election of 1984 was largely unanticipated by the pundits........ the larger suspense will persist till the morning of May 23. ....... particularly true of rural women whose voting preferences are often not robustly factored in....... In the Delhi assembly election of 2013, the Aam Aadmi Party made its electoral debut. Its campaign was enthusiastic but not very organized. That was evident on polling day when the AAP’s patchy presence contrasted with the organized approach of both the Congress and the BJP. Yet, AAP performed spectacularly and came within a whisker of upstaging the BJP as the single largest party.......... Modi’s meetings in West Bengal for example have been hugely attended. The numbers attending are also far in excess of what the BJP’s weak organizational apparatus in the state can mobilize. Indeed, the success of these meetings has forced the West Bengal chief minister to organize many more public meetings than she originally planned. In places where the crowds have not matched her expectations, she has followed the meetings with a padayatra....... the raw human emotion of an election is never captured by surveys and exit polls. This is why it is best to approach the morning of May 23 with an open mind.

BJP banks on Bengal Ground reports from three rounds of polling indicate that the party could lose a chunk of the seats it had won in 2014 ...... “We could lose around 50 seats we had won in 2014 in states like Uttar Pradesh, Rajasthan, Madhya Pradesh, Chhattisgarh, Maharashtra, Bihar and Jharkhand. However, we are confident of springing a surprise in Bengal, Odisha and also in the Northeast to an extent to offset the losses,” one of the BJP leaders monitoring the party’s election war room in Delhi said...... “We are banking heavily on Bengal and Odisha. If we falter in these states, our tally will come down substantially,” another BJP leader said. “It would be very difficult for us to come close to the majority mark if the showing is not good in Bengal and Odisha,” the leader added....... “Our feedback shows there is a high chance of us winning between 10-15 seats in Bengal and anything between 5-10 seats in Odisha,” a BJP leader said....... The most serious losses are being feared in Uttar Pradesh, owing to the formidable BSP-SP-RLD alliance. ....The BJP has received reports of losses in Maharashtra owing to acute agrarian distress and the Congress-NCP alliance.

Tuesday, May 07, 2019

India 2019: Some Projections

Scenario 1: The BJP led alliance falls short of the halfway mark and quickly pulls in a few regional parties to form a majority. This was the talk of the town yesterday.

Scenario 2: The BJP improves on its tally from 2014. This might not be likely.

Scenario 3: The BJP does less well than in 2014 but still manages to cross the majority mark and forms another government for five years.

Scenario 4: The arithmetic is tri-polar: the BJP led alliance, the Congress-led alliance which is much smaller, and the non-BJP, non-Congress Federal Front alliance which asks the Congress for outside support to form a government.

Right now scenario one seems to be in the air. People are talking about it. But nobody knows for sure.

Somebody like the Orissa chief minister Patnayak might be willing to support the BJP led alliance in the case the need arises.




Monday, May 06, 2019

The Indian Election: Hard To Predict













Saturday, April 27, 2019

US Health Care: A Perspective





Friday, April 19, 2019

Modispeak





2014 was a mandate for hope and aspiration, 2019 is about confidence and acceleration: Narendra Modi
The first phase of polling and the people’s response have reinforced my confidence ....... I’m confident that we will be blessed by the people yet again with a massive mandate, with more seats than before. ........ In all the states that I’ve visited, I’m seeing unprecedented support. ....... Corruption weakens our country from within, I am challenging it. Dynasty politics weakens our democracy, I am challenging it. Terror threatens our nation’s very existence, I am challenging it. ‘Chalta Hai’ attitude held our nation’s progress hostage for a long time, I am challenging it. Forces of negativity try to obstruct an aspirational India from rising, I am challenging them. .......... There is such a mood against the Congress that, by their own admission, they are fighting on the lowest number of seats in a Lok Sabha election ever! ....... 2014 was a mandate for hope and aspiration, 2019 is about confidence and acceleration. 2014 was about some immediate needs the country had, 2019 is about what India wants! ......... UP is witnessing the double-engine growth phenomenon. Both the Centre and state governments have worked in tandem to transform lives. From investment to law and order to our work on Ganga, people have witnessed how a transformation is occurring in UP. ........ SP has repeatedly accused BSP of loot and corruption. BSP has repeatedly accused SP of goondaism and bad governance. I say that both are right about each other. ........ UP will vote for vision and not division. UP will vote for opportunities and not opportunism. UP will vote for development and not dynasty. UP will vote for those who put India First, not those who put Family First. ...... You can check any speech of mine. A large portion of it is dedicated to issues of development. However, it never makes headlines. ......... Deshbhakti is not a disease. Just as hyper-secularism was invented to strike at the root of India’s culture and ethos, similarly the terminology of hyper nationalism has been invented to portray deshbhakti in poor light. ...... because their sole focus is on attacking me, Modi has become a big issue. So, in a way, credit (for that) goes to the opposition. ...... India’s ranking on ease of doing business has risen dramatically, from 142 in 2014 to 77 now. And landmark reforms such as Insolvency and Bankruptcy Code (IBC) and GST have improved tax compliance. ........ Our motto, as I have said earlier, is to remove red tape and replace it with red carpet. The dramatic rise in Ease of Doing Business Rankings is evidence of our vision being translated to action. ......... Direct benefit transfers have taken middlemen and leakages out of the equation and put benefits directly in the hands of the people. Over Rs 1 lakh crore of the nation’s money has been saved from falling into the wrong hands. Government e-marketplace has ensured a level playing field for all kinds of traders in servicing the government’s requirements. Procurement within the government is now transparent, it benefits MSMEs and saves money. The previous financial year saw a four-fold increase in total value of transactions on the portal and doubling of number of sellers in the marketplace. ...... Abolition of interviews for certain government jobs has ensured that avenues for corruption and nepotism are cut down while merit is respected. ..... Allocation of coal and spectrum both witnessed massive scams under the previous government. We auctioned those in a transparent manner and ensured immense gains for the nation. ....... Getting passports, which used to take months earlier, is done within a couple of days. IT refunds arrive within days. Self-attestation is the norm now. ....... I can say with confidence that we have succeeded in removing Congress culture from our system. When I talk about Congress culture I refer to policy paralysis, corruption, nepotism, presence of middlemen, departments working in silos, projects being delayed, etc........ For MSME sector, loans up to a crore are now given in 59 minutes to the common man. Congress culture was telephone banking where their friends only got loans. Environmental clearances were cash clearance tools for Congress. They took 600 days and even then things were not proper. The period for environmental clearance have now come down to 150-180 days. ......... Earlier this year, we witnessed the first-ever diesel-to-electric converted locomotive made in Varanasi. This is something that the whole world recognised with awe. Coaches for some of the world’s metro projects are being made in India. India’s first semi-high-speed train, ‘Vande Bharat Express’, is a result of Make In India. ....... India’s defence manufacturing sector has got a new lease of life with greater impetus on Make In India. Our armed forces, who were made to wait for years for bullet-proof jackets, finally procured the jackets. It was not from a foreign manufacturer, but from our own facility. Of the total contracts signed, more than half have been signed with Indian manufacturers for procurement of defence equipment for the armed forces. It includes helicopters, radar, ballistic helmets, artillery guns, ammunition. The assault rifles that the world uses will now be made in a factory set up in Amethi. Now, the Naamdar can actually read ‘Made in Amethi’ on AK-47s. Do you think it was possible if Make In India was not working? ......... Japanese companies, famous for their engineering capabilities, are now making cars in India and then exporting to their own country. ...... When we came to office in 2014, India was attracting around $35 billion FDI. That number has almost doubled in the last five years. ....... Do you know that after the 1991 reforms, when Manmohan Singh was the finance minister, GDP growth rate came down to around 2%? ..... our target is to make India a $5 trillion economy ...... Our target is to bring India within the top 50 in World Bank’s Ease of Doing Business rankings. We have a plan to invest Rs 100 lakh crore in infrastructure in the next five years. We will create new opportunities of employment by providing support to 22 major champion sectors identified as main drivers of the Indian economy. We will also harness entrepreneurship to act as a force multiplier for job creation. We will give a boost to MSMEs and traders through special measures. ........ There have been 26 Pragati sessions so far and about 230 projects to the tune of Rs 10 lakh crore have been attended to. Projects pending for 34 years have been cleared. ........ GST has been evolving towards lower taxes. Already, 99% of items for the common people are now taxed on an average at half the pre-GST tax rate. Tax rates came down on over 80 household goods and many daily-use items attract no tax at all. Burden of taxes will keep reducing with GST. This is because GST has brought in ease of compliance for all, given that it is an online platform-based system with greater transparency. This has boosted ease of doing business. ........ Exemptions from GST for small businesses have been doubled from Rs 20 lakh to Rs 40 lakh. Small businesses with a turnover up to Rs 1.5 crore have a composition scheme where they pay a flat rate and file only one annual return. ...... To ensure that farmers’ income growth does not suffer, we declared MSP hikes that fixed the MSP at a minimum of 1.5 times the cost. ....... During the five years from 2009-10 to 2013-14, under UPA, only around 7 lakh MT of pulses and oilseeds worth Rs 3,117 crore were procured at MSP. During 2014-15 to 2018-19, under NDA, 94 lakh MT of pulses and oilseeds worth Rs 44,142 crore were procured at MSP by the government. This is more than a ten-fold increase. ....... For agriculture and rural development, we have promised to spend Rs 25 lakh crore in the next five years.

Thursday, April 18, 2019

AOC Should Write A Book



AOC should write a book that would be a page-turner (as in, a fast-paced account) account of when she decided to run to winning her primary. Well, the actual election was a foregone conclusion after she won the primary, so that part need not be covered.

It would be exciting. It would also be a handbook for people who might want to replicate that success elsewhere in the country which, I believe, would much please AOC.

The book would sell well and bring about financial freedom for AOC. That would be a good thing. That would free her to be more risk-taking. She is already plenty of a risk-taker. The book would free her from her congressional salary.

She is neck and neck to Donald Trump in terms of media attention, which is mind-blowing. But that would fool you into thinking people already know. Not the case. People don't know all the details. They do want to know.

I can see her playing a key role for Bernie in the fall of 2020 to get the young vote out. It is best there is a book out there before that so she maintains control of her narrative.

Her book might have a one-word title: Running.


Notre Dame Digital



The Digital Scan Of Notre Dame Offers Hope For Its Restoration

Wednesday, April 17, 2019

The Major Religions



https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=2G4pflZunus
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=27OtioEc0hM
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=PC0FW407FVs
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=tji6TomwFlI
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=2JkLNx0WtYE
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=oNuLaeUP7mg
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=DfeMBja6dMA
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=aOSeHif9eWw
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=v_h0llgYdUg
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=qsH1U7zSp7k
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=7RS3679o22w
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=z9GXI_9DXF0
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=FSeliPlxwYs

Taoism: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=DfeMBja6dMA
Buddhism: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=2JkLNx0WtYE
Islam: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=v_h0llgYdUg
Judaism: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=aOSeHif9eWw
Christianity: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=oNuLaeUP7mg



The Jesus of History versus the Christ of Faith
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=INIG636SnU4

Bernie Is Leading

And taking AOC around the country like she were his running mate!


Ronald Reagan also ran and lost one time. Then he ran again four years later.

Bernie is in better physical shape than Ronald. Because Bernie runs. Not run for president, which he does. But run as in jogging.

Bernie also has some other parallels with Ronald Reagan. He is very, very clear about a few basic things that also happen to be fundamental. That clarity comes from deep conviction.

He is a breath of fresh air.

It was Bernie who put Medicare For All on the national map. Now every Democrat running is for it. That is an achievement. It just makes sense. Medicare For All is arithmetic.

So right now it is looking like:

President: Bernie Sanders
Vice President: Kamala Harris
Fall 2020 Campaigner: AOC
UN Ambassador: Tulsi Gabbard
Secretary Of Labor: Andrew Yang
Texas Governor: Beto
Senate Majority Leader: Elizabeth Warren
Secretary Of Urban Affairs: Pete

Trump predicts 'Crazy Bernie Sanders,' 'Sleepy Joe Biden' will be 2 Dem 'finalists' in 2020 race
The 2020 Race Is Going Just Like Bernie Sanders Wanted The senator from Vermont is starting to think he will not only win the Democratic nomination, but beat Trump and become president...... The campaign is moving toward its internal $280 million target and savoring polls that have Sanders just behind Joe Biden, whom Sanders and his team expect will only go down once he gets in the race. The number of candidates keeps growing, lowering how many people it would take to come in first, beyond the 15 percent to 20 percent of primary voters who will stick with him no matter what...... Americans want Medicare for All, but are just anxious that Sanders wouldn’t be able to manage that or any of the other big changes that he’s promising. They believe a tightly-run campaign would demonstrate that he could run the country, too. .... he’s the only candidate with a sizable chunk of the electorate that won’t waver, no matter what, so a field that keeps growing and splitting support keeps making it easier...... Medicare for All has become a litmus test for many progressives, as has free public college tuition. ...... there was a band of young white guys in hockey jerseys playing a song about “cosmic dust” ahead of the Pittsburgh rally and staffing tables of merchandise with Sanders as a Sesame Street character and “Let it FUCKING Bern” written over a picture of a marijuana leaf

When Trump is calling Bernie "crazy," he is talking about Bernie's Einstein hair.



Bernie Sanders Imagines a Progressive New Approach to Foreign Policy Sanders had scarcely talked about foreign affairs in his 2016 campaign, but his framework had a natural extensibility. Under way in the world was a simple fight, Sanders said. On one side were oligarchs and the right-wing parties they had managed to corrupt. On the other were the people. ....... He begins the 2020 Presidential campaign not as a gadfly but as a favorite, which requires a comprehensive vision among voters of how he would lead the free world. ..... “reconceptualize a global order based on human solidarity.” ..... In 2016, he had asked voters to imagine how the principles of democratic socialism could transform the Democratic Party. Now he was suggesting that they could also transform how America aligns itself in the world..... Basic impression: same guy. ....... “How many people in the United States understand that we overthrew a democratically elected government in Iran to put in the Shah? ...... One condition that Americans had not digested was the bottomlessness of inequality. ....... “Twenty-six of the wealthiest people on earth own more wealth than the bottom half of the world’s population. Did you know that? ..... “twenty-six people, 3.6 billion people. How grotesque is that?” ...... “When I talk about income inequality and talk about right-wing authoritarianism, you can’t separate the two.” ....... his thesis had always been that money corrupted politics, and now he was tracing the money back overseas ...... as emergencies in Libya, Syria, and Yemen have deepened, the reputation of Obama’s foreign policy, and of the foreign-policy establishment more broadly, has diminished ....... She and others now see in Sanders something that they didn’t in 2016: a clear progressive theory of what the U.S. is after in the world. “I think he’s bringing those views on the importance of tackling economic inequality into foreign policy ........There has been, he went on, “a bipartisan assumption that we’re supposed to love Saudi Arabia and hate Iran. And yet, if you look at young people in Iran, they are probably a lot more pro-American than Saudis. ...... But they also have more democracy, as a matter of fact, more women’s rights, than does Saudi Arabia...... Sanders seemed to oscillate between proposing a characteristically transformational reimagining of American policy at the grandest scale and, in specific cases, more complicated approaches ...... In Sanders’s account of global affairs, Americans have been as likely to be villains as heroes. Six trillion dollars had now been spent on the war on terror since 2001. “It’s an unbelievable amount of money,” he said. “Is this going to go on forever?” Seven hundred billion dollars was being sent annually to the military, he noted. “Do we really need to spend more than the next ten nations combined on the military, when our infrastructure is collapsing and kids can’t afford to go to college?” ......... whether the most powerful nation on earth is excessively capitalist or sufficiently democratic....... whether the existential challenges of climate change create a moral imperative for deep structural reforms, including the abolition of the filibuster and the Electoral College ....... it was hard to see much evidence for the global popular movement against the right that he hoped to ignite. ...... That is the optimistic scenario: that climate change will bring about a new spirit of international coöperation........ Power revealed steeliness in Obama, and an instinct for the consensus, and caution. ..... he has bent the Party’s policies and priorities so that they largely match his. ...... the fiery-sermonizer figure is in retreat, and he is sounding notes of caution. Most of the other Democrats running for President have embraced broad structural reforms: the Electoral College must go, and perhaps the filibuster. Not Sanders. On Palestine, he now invokes the tradition of Carter and Clinton. If the newer candidates must demonstrate and defend their beliefs, then Sanders is undertaking a more subtle task, in trying to accomplish a turn in his public character as he nears eighty: to extricate the person from the ideology, and to suggest that he is not just a revolutionary but also a safe pair of hands.
Bernie Sanders acknowledges 'serious problem' at the border, demands 'sensible immigration reform'
This is how Bernie Sanders thinks about foreign policy The senator wants to create a global democratic movement to end oligarchy and authoritarianism..... has a consistent foreign policy thesis: income inequality and authoritarianism are intricately linked. .......... Create a global democratic movement that counters authoritarian leaders from Russia to Saudi Arabia as a way to improve the lives of billions around the world....... “The United States must seek partnerships not just between governments, but between peoples” ...... the senator explained that the US shouldn’t pick sides in ongoing geopolitical feuds, like Saudi Arabia vs. Iran or Israelis vs. Palestinians. ..... Musgrave had the same concern. “Financial firms in London, Geneva, and New York, including their intermediaries in places like the Caymans and the Channel Islands, play a big role in helping to preserve international oligarchs’ wealth,” he told me. “Presumably a President Sanders could deal with New York’s role in domestic politics — but how would he seek to shut down other countries’ financial networks?” ...... Sanders seems to think authoritarianism and oligarchy cause most of the world’s problems. “It comes a little close to a ‘Theory of Everything’” ...... When he was in the House of Representatives in 1998, Sanders famously grilled then-Treasury Secretary Robert Rubin on IMF loans to repressive governments. And in 2015, he blasted the IMF for imposing austerity measures on Greece as a condition to receive economic aid during its financial crisis. ...... “At a time of grotesque wealth inequality, the pensions of the people in Greece should not be cut even further to pay back some of the largest banks and wealthiest financiers in the world.” ...... “It’s a vision in which international economics would be subordinated to a vision of political relations and human rights that would be as big a departure from Clintonism as Trumpism, just in a different direction,” Musgrave said.
Bernie faces voters in the heart of Trump country

Imran Khan Could Bring Peace

The formula for peace in South Asia is simple. And the case for it is compelling. And Modi might find in Imran a partner that he sought in Nawaz but did not get. Nawaz simply did not command respect from the Pakistan Army. Imran does.

It was not realistic for Imran to expect Modi to play game before the elections in India. But once the elections are over, and Pakistan bashing has delivered the votes, Modi might want to finally reach out. It might start with an accidental bumping into Imran at some summit where the two might find themselves. And then things could snowball.

The attack in Kashmir that brought the subcontinent to the brink of war, ably defused by Imran by the simple release of an Indian pilot, might also be the event that pushed Modi to a renewed mandate. Looks like Modi will win and come back as Prime Minister. But nobody knows. Predicting elections in India is not a science.

Modi's BJP might be able to strike peace with Pakistan in ways the more socially moderate Congress Party might not. It often takes the hard right to make the compromises. Because there is no one to the right warning the people you might sell out.

The case is that it has been long enough. The solution is to accept the Line Of Control as the permanent border which, by the way, might also be the formula for the longest disputed border in the world, that between India and China.

Before the British came along there was no clear border between India and China. There was no line. The idea of the border as a line is a modern invention. Back then the border was a frontier. Nobody who crossed the frontier ever knew where India ended and China began. You trekked for hours through uninhabited land. Until you came to a settlement, it did not really matter what country you were in.

Recognizing the LOC as the permanent border would normalize relations between India and Pakistan. Kashmir might remain two, but then, hey, so does Punjab. But with a normal border, there might be trade, travel, and tourism between the two Kashmirs and the Kashmiris might experience normalcy after long decades. The two countries might be able to pull their armies from the border.

The tension is a political sinkhole. Political capital that should be going to issues like poverty go to a war that never happens, can not happen. It is stupid.

That India will get Pakistan occupied Kashmir is fiction. That Pakistan will get India occupied Kashmir is fiction. That Kashmir will become an independent country is fiction.

If Modi and Imran can bring permanent peace, they will win the Nobel Peace Prize. Modi wondered why he was not awarded the Nobel Peace Prize after he settled the border between India and Bangladesh. Well, nobody really knew there was a dispute there. But the whole world knows about the border dispute on the other side. Figure that out and win the Nobel.

Imran is on the Time 100 List this year. If he can work with Modi and bring peace, he will be Time Person Of The Year. Might as well. And 2019 will be 1992 all over again when he put Pakistan on the world map by winning the Cricket World Cup.

But the cover of Time magazine is less important. Even the Nobel is less important. What is truly important is peace will allow the two countries to truly tackle poverty.